Market Performance - Historically, A-shares tend to perform well in the two weeks leading up to the National People's Congress (NPC), with a probability of over 50% for indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 to rise, averaging over 3% returns in the two weeks prior [9][18] - After the NPC, the probability of market increases rises significantly, with indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 showing a 64% probability of rising in the weeks following the congress [9][18] Style Performance - There is a calendar effect observed in A-shares around the NPC, where small-cap stocks generally outperform both before and after the congress, driven by expectations of stable growth policies and active financing [12][18] - The small-cap growth and value styles are expected to dominate during the NPC period, while large-cap styles may gain traction in the month following the congress [12][18] Industry Performance - Industries such as basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials show strong performance before and after the NPC, with over 50% probability of rising in the weeks leading up to the congress [14][18] - Post-NPC, industries like real estate, construction materials, and consumer goods are expected to see higher probabilities of increases as stable growth policies are implemented [16][18] Liquidity and Funding - The liquidity indicators show a net outflow of financing funds amounting to 830.2 billion yuan, with a significant drop in ETF inflows [30][36] - The issuance of public funds increased by 340.3 million units, indicating a rise in demand for equity investments despite the overall net outflow [30][36] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity, with the proportion of financing transactions in A-share trading falling to 8.6% [44] - The VIX index has decreased, indicating improved risk appetite in the market, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices also showing positive performance [46][48]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a collective rise on February 24, with oil and gas-themed ETFs leading the gains, while several gold-related ETFs also performed well [1][15]. ETF Performance - On February 24, oil and gas, non-ferrous metals, and telecommunications sectors showed significant gains, with oil and gas-themed ETFs leading the charge. The S&P Oil & Gas ETF (513350) rose by 9.73%, followed closely by the S&P Oil & Gas ETF Jiashi (159518) at 9.66%, and the Oil & Gas ETF Yinhua (563150) at 9.53% [3][17][18]. - Several gold-related ETFs also saw increases, with the Industrial Bank Gold ETF (159315) and others rising over 5% [3][19]. Bond and Stock ETF Activity - Bond ETFs were actively traded, with the Short-term Bond ETF Haifutong (511360) achieving a transaction volume exceeding 55 billion yuan on February 24. Multiple technology innovation bond ETFs also ranked high in trading volume [9][22]. - In the stock ETF category, the A500 ETF series, including A500 ETF Fund (512050) and A500 ETF Huatai Bairui (563360), saw transaction volumes surpassing 5 billion yuan [9][21]. Fund Flows - During the week leading up to the Spring Festival (February 9-13), several bond ETFs experienced net inflows, while broad-based stock ETFs faced net outflows. Notably, the Short-term Bond ETF Haifutong (511360) had a net inflow of 119.55 billion yuan [11][23][24]. - Year-to-date, industry-specific ETFs such as the Chemical ETF (159870) and Non-ferrous Metals ETF (512400) have seen significant net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan, while broad-based ETFs like the CSI 300 ETF faced substantial outflows exceeding 100 billion yuan [11][23][24]. Market Outlook - Analysts from Haifutong Fund anticipate that the A-share market will likely maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI-related markets being key themes. The focus should be on technology sectors, including semiconductors and robotics, as well as industries related to external demand such as chemicals and machinery [25].

Market Overview - The first trading day of the Year of the Horse (February 24) saw A-shares open positively, with the ChiNext index rising by up to 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.87% [1][14] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market rose, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [1][14] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][14] Sector Performance - The chemical sector continued to rise, with active performances in phosphate chemicals and fertilizers, leading to several stocks, including Hebang Biotechnology, hitting the daily limit [1][14] - The Chemical ETF (516020) surged by 3.42%, attracting 222 million yuan in the previous five trading days [1][14] Precious Metals and Commodities - Following the Spring Festival, the domestic market entered a peak working season, with the "golden March and silver April" period expected to see increased industrial production and infrastructure projects [3][16] - Precious metals prices surged due to rising risk aversion stemming from U.S. tariff policy disputes and geopolitical tensions, with the Precious Metals ETF (159876) rising by 3.18% and attracting a net subscription of 6 million units [3][16] - The outlook for gold demand is optimistic, with expectations of surpassing 5,000 tons globally by 2025, driven by strong investment flows and central bank purchases [7][19] Military and Aerospace Sector - The military sector showed strong performance, with the Military ETF (512810) rising by 1.16% and experiencing a premium at closing [9][21] - The domestic aviation sector is expected to accelerate, with the C919 aircraft averaging nearly 50 flights per day during the Spring Festival, a 52.6% increase year-on-year [11][24] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are expected to heighten the urgency of national defense construction in China [11][24] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest maintaining a focus on cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI trends as the main market themes [4][17] - The investment strategy emphasizes a dual focus on technology and resource products, with technology centered on AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while resource products focus on precious metals and basic chemicals [4][17]

每经记者｜杜波 每经编辑｜段炼 记者|杜波 编辑|段炼 杜恒峰 校对|许绍航 2月24日，马年第一个交易日，A股全线飘红。沪深两市成交额2.2万亿元，较上一个交易日放量2194亿元。截至收盘，沪指涨0.87%，深成指涨1.36%，创 业板指涨0.99%。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4000只个股上涨，其中109只个股涨停。 油气股集体上涨，通源石油、准油股份、山东墨龙、中海油服等多股涨停。化工板块爆发，美邦股份4连板，红宝丽、红墙股份、澄星股份、金浦钛业涨 停。 黄金股大涨，四川黄金涨停，西部黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金等大涨。培育钻石概念大涨，四方达20cm涨停，黄河旋风涨停。玻纤概念反复活跃，国际 复材4天2板，续创历史新高。 | | | | 黄金 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 3031.38,+5.22% | | | | 新闻 大V | 成分 | | 资金 | 研报 | | | 晓程科技 | | | | | | | @ SZ300139 | | 65.75 | | +15.19% | -0.03% | | 市值龙头10 业绩龙 ...

Core Insights - The Spring Festival box office in 2025 reached a record high of 9.514 billion yuan, marking an 18.36% year-on-year increase, showcasing the significant impact of leading films [1] - The 2026 Spring Festival is expected to feature a mix of sequels and diverse new films, including three IP series like "Fast Life 3" and notable new titles such as "Silent Awakening," indicating a rich variety of genres that could stimulate market demand [1] - The overall box office potential will heavily depend on the actual reception of the films post-release, with a projected total box office of approximately 9.298 billion yuan for the period [1] Industry Overview - The Film and Television ETF (516620) tracks the CSI Film and Television Index (930781), which selects listed companies involved in film production, distribution, and screening from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the film industry [1] - The index encompasses multiple segments of the film industry chain, primarily focusing on communication services while also including consumer discretionary, industrial, and information technology sectors [1]

Core Insights - The increasing interest in "fixed income +" products reflects investors' desire for stable returns amid a low-interest-rate environment and market volatility [1][3][5] - "Fixed income +" products have seen significant growth, with market size increasing from 1.6 trillion yuan at the end of Q4 2024 to 2.5 trillion yuan by Q3 2025, marking a 52% increase [3][4] Market Trends - The bond market has faced pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating above 1.8%, while equity markets have shown active performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 and 4100 points [2][6] - The average return for pure bond funds since the beginning of the year is only 0.11%, with some funds experiencing significant losses, indicating a challenging environment for traditional bond investments [2][6] Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly cautious yet optimistic, seeking products that balance risk and return, which aligns with the characteristics of "fixed income +" offerings [3][5] - The demand for "fixed income +" products is driven by both institutional and retail investors, highlighting a shift in wealth allocation strategies [4][5] Product Development - The "fixed income +" product matrix is diversifying, with offerings categorized by risk-return profiles and thematic strategies, such as "fixed income + technology" and "fixed income + dividends" [5][6] - Fund managers are focusing on enhancing product features to meet varying investor needs, with a particular emphasis on low to medium volatility strategies [6][7] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain volatile, while the equity market may present structural opportunities, suggesting that "fixed income +" products will continue to attract attention as a new avenue for wealth reallocation [6][7] - The emphasis on strategy differentiation within the industry is likely to become more pronounced, with a focus on maintaining absolute return strategies to build long-term investor trust [7]

值得一提的是，杨爱斌现任鹏扬基金董事、总经理，戴杰现任公司权益投资部总经理助理，李沁现任公司混合投资部副总经理。 此次，戴杰离任鹏扬成长先锋混合基金引起市场关注。 鹏扬成长先锋混合基金成立于2021年11月，截至2025年12月31日，该基金A类份额成立以来的单位净值下跌31.51%，近3年单位净值下跌5.57%，近1年单位 净值增长4.12%。 近期，鹏扬基金旗下多只基金变更基金经理。 | 离任基金经理姓名 | 李沁 | | --- | --- | | 离任原因 | 因工作需要 | | 离任日期 | 2025-12-25 | | 转任本公司其他工作岗位 | | | 的说明 | | | 是否已按规定在中国基金 | 是 | | 业协会办理变更手续 | | | 是否已按规定在中国基金 | 否 | | 业协会办理注销手续 | | 2025年12月27日，鹏扬基金发布公告称，基金经理李沁离任鹏扬景浦一年持有混合基金、鹏扬景润一年混合基金、鹏扬景瑞三年持有混合基金、鹏扬景泽一 年持有混合基金等4只基金。基金经理吴西燕离任鹏扬景合六个月混合基金、鹏扬景欣混合基金、鹏扬添利增强基金等3只基金。基金经理戴杰离任鹏扬成长 先锋 ...

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 2020 年以来 A 股结构性行情深度镜鉴 ——AI 行情再审视 证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 22 日 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 1、《"反内卷"：治理逻辑与产业 影响》2025-11-23 2、《全 A 盈利改善，结构主线明确 — — 2025 年 A 股 三 季 报 点 评 》 2025-11-07 3、《2025 年中报透视：科技景气对 冲 周 期 寻 底 ， 消 费 延 续 分 化 》 2025-09-12 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：王永健 核心研判：2020 年以来，A 股市场已系统性告别总量驱动的同涨同跌模式，进入由 宏观动能转换、资金行为变迁与产业逻辑迭代共同驱动的结构性行情新阶段。我们通 过深度复盘三轮代表性行情（消费医药、新能源、泛 AI），揭示不同市场环境下超额 收益的来源演变与核心驱动逻辑的范式转移，并重点对当前处于导入期的泛 AI 行情 与历史上科技泡沫进行对比，论 ...

Market Review - The MAGA policy framework has been established, leading to a rise in gold and a decline in the US dollar. In 2025, the Trump administration strongly promoted the "America First" policy, resulting in increased volatility in global capital markets, with gold leading the gains and the dollar weakening. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 17% and 22% respectively, while the dollar index fell by 8.8% throughout the year [3][9][10]. US Market - The US economy is expected to grow moderately in 2026, supported by both investment and consumption. The impact of previous tariffs is diminishing, and fiscal and monetary policies are showing effects. AI-related investments are anticipated to continue their strong momentum, while consumer spending is expected to gradually recover [3][4][9]. - Inflation remains sticky, with limited room for interest rate cuts. The expected range for rate cuts in 2026 is between 25-50 basis points, influenced by resilient wage growth and economic recovery [3][4][9]. - The political landscape, particularly the midterm elections, is likely to maintain a moderate policy tone, balancing economic stimulus with inflation control to create a favorable socio-economic environment [3][4][9]. US Stock Market - The US stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the AI narrative and recovery in cyclical and consumer sectors. Key investment opportunities include AI-related industries, which are still in the early stages of a potential bubble, and sectors benefiting from the "Great Beautiful Act" [3][4][9]. - The manufacturing and information sectors are projected to be the main beneficiaries of corporate tax cuts, while cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to recover as the economy stabilizes [3][4][9]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with structural opportunities emerging. The earnings growth in sectors such as semiconductors, automotive parts, and discretionary consumption is expected to improve significantly in 2026 [3][4][9]. - The liquidity environment is characterized by a decline in US Treasury yields, with foreign capital continuing to flow into the market. The strategic stability in US-China relations is likely to support risk appetite [3][4][9].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a continuous volume contraction rebound, with improved funding conditions due to the warming expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and enhanced effectiveness of domestic fundamental pricing [1] - Recent improvements in the TMT and upstream resource sectors have been notable, with a focus on AI chains, pricing chains, capital goods, consumer goods, and infrastructure chains [1] - The upcoming "spring restlessness" in mid to late December may lead to an early start, balancing growth and cyclical investments, with a mid-term view favoring large financials and certain high-value consumer stocks as core choices for asset revaluation in China [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a rotation of volatility and structural opportunities, with traditional manufacturing and resource sectors being undervalued in terms of global pricing power [3] - Since the "9.24 market" last year, the overall market has seen a systematic increase in financing, with a net increase of 1.11 trillion yuan, significantly surpassing the total issuance of public and private bullish products since October of the previous year [3] - Major broad-based indices and thriving sectors have achieved most of their gains during these two market waves, while other periods have been relatively flat, with effective gains seen in quant-driven micro-accounts, insurance-driven banks, and price-driven non-ferrous metals [3] Group 3 - The market remains in an upward trend supported by funding and policy, with expectations for the A-share market to continue its bull run next year, supported by valuation and profit stabilization [4] - Easing geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are likely to bring a pre-spring restlessness rally to the A-share market, with upcoming U.S.-China policy expectations being a key factor [4] - The AI sector is expected to continue its momentum under the 2026 U.S.-China interest rate cycle and strengthening AI trends, with a focus on "scarcity" in energy and power, as well as dual development in AI applications and ecosystem construction [4]