Key Takeaways Robinhood's transaction-based revenue estimate is $809.9M, up 20.5% year over year.HOOD's options transaction revenue is expected at $315.3M, implying 42% growth in Q4.Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue is estimated to fall 19.8%, while expenses stay elevated.Robinhood Markets’ (HOOD) transaction-based revenues (comprising more than 60% of total net revenues) are expected to have been decent in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company is scheduled to announce quarterly and full-year 2025 nu ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant increase in 2025, rising from $2,600 per ounce to over $4,300, marking a 65% return, while gold mining stocks outperformed with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF rising by 155% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2024, gold lagged behind speculative assets like big tech stocks and Bitcoin, but this trend reversed in 2025 as gold and mining stocks surged while riskier assets cooled [2][3] - The shift in market dynamics indicates that gold performs better during periods of tightening credit, which is currently evidenced by the decline in speculative assets [3][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the increase in 30-year Treasury bond yields suggest weaker credit growth, which typically leads to gold outperforming industrial commodities [4] - Historical data shows that during the 1970s, gold prices rose significantly faster than most industrial commodities, reinforcing the current outlook for gold [5] Group 3: Cost Dynamics for Gold Miners - Oliver argues that gold miners are not facing the usual cost pressures, and if gold prices continue to rise faster than input costs, profit margins should expand rather than contract [6][7] - The strong performance of gold mining stocks in 2025 is viewed as the beginning of a longer bull market rather than a peak [7]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Mortgage & Related Services industry is experiencing growth due to declining mortgage rates, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 and expectations for further easing this year [1][4] - The industry consists of providers of mortgage-related loans, refinancing, and loan-servicing facilities, with non-banks gaining market share as banks retreat from the mortgage business due to higher compliance and capital requirements [3] Current Trends - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has stabilized around a low-6% range since mid-September 2025, providing relief for homebuyers and improving purchase demand [4][5] - Refinancing activity is recovering as homeowners seek to refinance into lower-rate loans, which is expected to drive higher loan origination volumes and improve fee income for industry players [6] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with mortgage servicers facing pressure to cut prices, leading to reduced sales margins [2][7] Performance Metrics - The Zacks Mortgage & Related Services industry has outperformed the broader Zacks Finance sector and the S&P 500, gaining 54.7% over the past year compared to 23.2% and 23.4% for the sector and S&P 500, respectively [11] - The industry currently trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 6.27X, lower than the S&P 500's 8.67X, indicating a premium compared to the broader finance sector's P/B of 4.36X [14][17] Company Highlights - **PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (PFSI)**: A specialty financial services firm benefiting from a strong servicing business and a strategic transaction with Annaly Capital Management. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PFSI's 2025 earnings is $11.71 per share, a 1.7% increase from the previous year [20][21] - **Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM)**: Known as Farmer Mac, it focuses on creating a secondary market for loans to rural borrowers. AGM's 2025 earnings estimate is $17.53 per share, reflecting a 12.1% rise from the prior year [24][25] - **LendingTree, Inc. (TREE)**: An online marketplace enhancing its product offerings and focusing on improving purchase conversion rates. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TREE's 2025 earnings is $4.79 per share, indicating a 50.2% increase from the previous year [27][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates aggressively in early 2026 due to labor market weakness, inflation uncertainty, and political pressure, according to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Conditions - The job market is still flagging, particularly in early 2026, which will lead to insufficient job growth and rising unemployment, prompting the Fed to cut rates [2]. - Zandi anticipates three cuts of a quarter percentage point each before mid-year 2026, contrasting with market expectations of only two cuts later in the year [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Outlook - Current market pricing indicates a first cut not until at least April 2026, with a second cut likely around September, while Fed officials are even more cautious, expecting only one cut throughout the year [3][4]. - The Fed's individual officials' expectations suggest a tepid pace for any potential reductions, with recent minutes indicating that the decision for a cut was a close call [4]. Group 3: Political Influence - The potential for President Trump to reshape the Fed's hierarchy adds uncertainty, as he currently has three appointees on the board and is likely to appoint another loyalist soon [5][6]. - Trump's advocacy for lower interest rates may lead to increased political pressure on the Fed, especially with midterm congressional elections approaching [7].

Economic Indicators - Weekly initial unemployment claims in the US are expected to fall by 11,000 to 225,000 [1] - November CPI is projected to increase by 3.1% year-on-year, while core CPI is expected to rise by 3.0% year-on-year [1] - November existing home sales are anticipated to increase by 1.2% month-on-month to 4.15 million [1] - The University of Michigan's December consumer sentiment index is expected to be revised upward by 0.2 to 53.5 from the previously reported 53.3 [1] Labor Market - November nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000, exceeding expectations of 50,000, while October nonfarm payrolls fell by 105,000, worse than the expected decline of 25,000 [3] - The unemployment rate in November increased by 0.1 to a four-year high of 4.6% [3] - November average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, which is the smallest year-on-year increase in 4.5 years [2][4] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index fell by 0.32%, the Dow Jones by 0.293%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.14% [6] - Stocks are under pressure due to sluggish economic indicators, including a rise in the unemployment rate and stagnation in retail sales [5] - Energy producers are experiencing significant declines, with WTI crude oil falling over 3% to a 4.75-year low, impacting the broader market [5][14] International Markets - Overseas stock markets are also lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.68%, China's Shanghai Composite down by 1.11%, and Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 down by 1.56% [7] Interest Rates and Bonds - The 10-year T-note yield decreased by 0.8 basis points to 4.165%, influenced by the rise in unemployment and lower wage growth [8] - The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1.5-week low of 2.240%, indicating falling inflation expectations [8] Company-Specific Movements - Pfizer Inc is down more than 4% after forecasting 2026 revenue below consensus estimates [16] - Humana is down more than 2% after its full-year adjusted EPS forecast fell short of expectations [16] - Archer-Daniels-Midland is down more than 2% following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley [17] - Cognex is up more than 5% after a double-upgrade by Goldman Sachs [17] - Ford Motor is up more than 1% after announcing a shift in production focus from electric to gas and hybrid vehicles [19]

Group 1 - Brasada Capital Management's Q3 2025 investor letter indicates that the market is entering the fourth quarter with equities near all-time highs and easing monetary policy, suggesting potential for continued momentum despite signs of a capital expenditure bubble [1] - The firm is selectively investing in companies with strong moats and cash flows while avoiding balance-sheet risks [1] Group 2 - Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (NYSE:FERG) is highlighted as a key stock, with a one-month return of -6.01% and a 52-week gain of 21.71%, closing at $228.20 per share on December 11, 2025, with a market capitalization of $45.818 billion [2] - Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is the largest scaled specialty distributor for North American plumbing, HVAC, and waterworks, with revenue split approximately 51% residential and 49% non-residential, and 60% from repair & replace (R&R) and 40% from new housing builds [3] - About 85% of Ferguson's revenue comes from finished goods, with plumbing making up around 50% of the product mix, and approximately 95% of revenue generated in the U.S. [3]

Group 1 - Traders are increasing bets on lower interest rates following the anticipated announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair and the release of delayed economic data [1][2] - The demand for short-term curve structures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) indicates expectations for monetary policy easing after Jerome Powell's term ends in May [2][4] - The frontrunner for the new Fed chair position is Kevin Hassett, as indicated by President Trump, which has led to increased trading activity in futures markets [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming announcement of the new Fed chair is expected to create a "shadow Fed chair," potentially complicating the Fed's communication of monetary policy [4] - Delayed labor market data, set to be released on December 16, could influence market expectations for dovish monetary policy if it confirms signs of softening in the labor market [5][6] - Recent trading activity has shown a preference for positions that benefit from a curve steepening, particularly targeting short-dated futures [6] Group 3 - Wagers on a dovish policy shift have resulted in a decline in 10-year Treasury yields, which fell below 4% last week [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.08%, down from 4.11%, reflecting market reactions to expectations of rate cuts [7]

Core Insights - The CoinShares Bitcoin ETF (BRRR) and CoinShares Bitcoin and Ether ETF (BTF) have shown gains, indicating a maturation phase in the bitcoin market similar to a company's post-IPO period [1][4] - Bitcoin's market cap is approximately $2 trillion, allowing for a prolonged distribution phase for early holders without causing market disruption [5] Performance of ETFs - BRRR gained 7.4% over the past week and currently holds $518 million in assets, tracking the spot price of bitcoin through direct holdings [3] - BTF, which provides exposure to both bitcoin and ether, climbed about 9% over the past week and holds $33 million in assets [3] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is in a distribution phase where long-term holders can exit positions without negatively impacting the market, aided by the liquidity provided by ETFs [2][5] - The implied overnight interest rates suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue easing monetary policy through 2026, potentially supporting Bitcoin prices during the distribution phase [6] Price Trends - Bitcoin is currently trading at around $91,920, having reached an all-time high of over $126,198 in October [7]

Core Insights - Digital asset investment products experienced a significant inflow of $1.07 billion after four weeks of outflows, driven by renewed investor confidence due to expectations of potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The inflow of $1.07 billion follows a period where digital asset exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw outflows totaling $5.7 billion over the previous four weeks, with last week's outflows reaching $1.94 billion [2]. - Market sentiment shifted positively after comments from FOMC member John Williams, which suggested that monetary policy remains restrictive and fueled speculation about a possible rate cut in December [1][2]. Group 2: Geographic Distribution - The US accounted for 93% of total crypto inflows, while Canada and Switzerland saw inflows of $97.6 million and $24.6 million, respectively, indicating strong demand in established crypto-friendly regions [5]. - In contrast, Germany experienced outflows of $55.5 million, reflecting diverging investor confidence and potential year-end portfolio adjustments [5]. Group 3: Asset Performance - Bitcoin led the inflows with $464 million, followed by Ethereum with $309 million, driven by expectations of network upgrades and increased staking [6]. - XRP saw a record inflow of $289 million, highlighting its growing appeal among institutional investors [6]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Short-Bitcoin ETPs experienced outflows of $1.9 million, indicating a retreat from bearish positions among traders, aligning with a broader optimism in the market [7]. - Cardano faced outflows of $19.3 million, which erased 23% of its assets under management, suggesting selective institutional interest favoring established leaders over altcoins [7]. Group 5: On-Chain Data Insights - On-chain data indicates notable supply movements that support bullish sentiment, with large amounts of XRP being withdrawn from centralized exchanges as new ETFs launch [8].

Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Silver prices surged over 5% to $56 per ounce, marking the strongest single-day rally in over a year, driven by tightening supplies and concerns of a global shortage [1] - Year-to-date, silver has gained 95%, on track for its best performance since 1979 [1] Group 2: Market Imbalances in China - Silver on-warrant inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 9,361 kilograms to 531,211 kilograms, the lowest level since 2015 [3] - China's silver exports in October reached over 660 tonnes, a new all-time high, indicating a tight market [4] - Shanghai has entered backwardation, signaling immediate physical scarcity in the silver market [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - Growing expectations of monetary policy easing have contributed to silver's rally, with a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its December 10 meeting [6] Group 4: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - Historically, silver has averaged a 2.12% gain in December, making it the third-strongest month of the year [7] - Silver closes December in positive territory 60% of the time, with the best returns occurring in 1997 and 2020, both around 17% [8] Group 5: Mining Stocks Performance - The rally in silver has reignited interest in mining equities, with the Global X Silver Miners ETF rising over 12% in just two days [9] - Notable gains among silver-focused miners include Aya Gold & Silver Inc. up 14.18%, Andean Precious Metals Corp. up 12.66%, and Discovery Silver Corp. up 12.39% [10]