Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference conveyed a more dovish stance, signaling potential easing of monetary policy, which led to a significant market rally, the largest since April [1] - Powell indicated that changes in risk balance may necessitate adjustments in policy, hinting at a possible rate cut in September, although he did not provide a firm commitment [1] - The immediate market reaction included a sharp decline in Treasury yields, with the two-year yield dropping 10 basis points to 3.69%, and the implied probability of a September rate cut rising from 70% to 80% [1] Group 2 - Some Wall Street strategists view Powell's remarks as a reassurance to the market, but caution that the market may be overreacting [2] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have resurfaced, particularly due to President Trump's public pressure on Powell to cut rates and his comments regarding Fed Governor Cook [2] - The market's enthusiastic response reflects a mixed sentiment among investors, who are hopeful for liquidity easing but worried about the economic fundamentals supporting long-term market growth [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes a preference for short dollar and long gold positions as a hedge against concerns regarding Fed independence and potential tariff shocks [2] - It highlights the economic implications of potential tariff scenarios in the US, predicting an increase in the effective tariff rate (ETR) by 17 percentage points by 2027, which could lead to a cumulative boost in core PCE prices by about 1.7% over the next 2-3 years [26][28] - The report notes that the MAS is expected to reduce the slope of the SGD NEER to flat at the upcoming meeting on July 30, reflecting a softer inflation outlook and downside risks to growth [20][21] Summary by Sections Global Views - The report discusses the expectation of a return to Fed easing, which is anticipated to lower US Treasury yields and the dollar while boosting global equities and gold [2] Asia FX Views - The report provides insights into various Asian currencies, indicating low activity flows primarily driven by profit-taking and unwinding positions, particularly in USD/TWD and USD/HKD [17] - It mentions that the market for USD/KRW is expected to face unpriced risks to the upside due to impending tariffs [18] MAS Meeting Insights - The report anticipates that the MAS will adjust its monetary policy stance to a flat slope, reflecting a cautious outlook on inflation and growth [20][21] Economic Implications of Tariffs - The report outlines the expected rise in the US effective tariff rate and its potential impact on inflation, projecting core PCE inflation rates for December 2025, 2026, and 2027 [26][28] Thailand Central Bank Leadership - The report notes the appointment of Vitai as the new Governor of the Bank of Thailand, who is expected to advocate for more aggressive monetary easing to support the economy [31][33]

Core Viewpoint - First Majestic Silver Corp. has achieved a new 52-week high in stock price, driven by strong silver-equivalent production and rising metal prices [1] Group 1: Production Performance - In Q2 2025, First Majestic reported total production of 7.9 million AgEq ounces, which includes 3.7 million silver ounces and 33,865 gold ounces, marking a 48% year-over-year increase due to a 76% surge in silver production [2][10] - The increase in production was primarily driven by the San Dimas and La Encantada mines, along with contributions from the Cerro Los Gatos mine [3] - The Cerro Los Gatos mine contributed 1.5 million ounces of silver to the Q2 output [6][10] - Following the strong performance, the company raised its full-year production guidance to 30.6-32.6 million AgEq ounces from the previous estimate of 27.8-31.2 million AgEq ounces [6][10] Group 2: Strategic Developments - In January 2025, First Majestic completed the acquisition of Gatos Silver, gaining a 70% interest in the Cerro Los Gatos mine, which is expected to enhance the company's production profile [3][5] - The combined production from Cerro Los Gatos, San Dimas, and Santa Elena mines is projected to reach 30-32 million ounces of silver equivalent annually, including 15-16 million ounces of silver [4] Group 3: Market Trends - Silver prices have increased by 28% this year, while gold prices have risen by 29%, driven by safe-haven demand, geopolitical tensions, and supply deficits [7] - Current silver prices are around $38 per ounce, while gold prices are approximately $3,361 per ounce [7][8] Group 4: Stock Performance - First Majestic's stock has risen by 42.2% over the past year, outperforming the industry average growth of 15.5% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an easing bias for the PBOC but adopts a less dovish tone compared to Q1, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy easing [2][3] Core Insights - The PBOC's assessment of the Chinese economy has shifted to "showing positive momentum, with sustained recovery in sentiment," reflecting a relatively optimistic growth outlook [2] - The PBOC plans to implement a "dual cut" in Q4, anticipating a significant slowdown in year-over-year real GDP growth, which includes a 10 basis point cut in the policy rate and a 50 basis point cut in the RRR [2] - The PBOC has emphasized the importance of executing existing policies, particularly targeted easing measures, to support technology innovation and consumption [2][3] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Committee Meeting - The PBOC's Q2 MPC meeting highlighted a less dovish tone than in Q1, focusing on the flexibility of policy easing rather than committing to rate cuts [2] - The report notes a shift in language regarding the property sector from "halting the decline and stabilizing the property market" to "sustaining and consolidating the stable momentum," indicating a more optimistic stance [3] Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC has removed "the three firm commitments" and is now focused on "preventing overshooting risks," suggesting a strategy to allow the CNY to gradually appreciate against the USD [3]

Core Insights - SSR Mining Inc. has temporarily suspended operations at the Seabee mine in Canada due to power outages caused by nearby forest fires [1][8] - The Seabee mine produced 26,001 ounces of gold in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.4% [2][8] - Despite the operational halt, SSR Mining's shares rose by 3% and reached a 52-week high of $13.33, driven by high gold and silver prices [4][8] Production and Financial Outlook - SSR Mining expects the Seabee mine to produce between 70,000 to 80,000 ounces of gold for the full year of 2025 [3] - The cost of sales for the mine is projected to be between $1,230 and $1,270 per payable ounce, with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) anticipated to be between $1,710 and $1,750 per payable ounce for 2025 [3] Market Performance - Silver prices have reached a 13-year high above $36 per ounce, while gold prices have also seen significant increases, currently around $3,320 per ounce [5] - SSR Mining's share price has surged by 147.9% over the past year, contrasting with a 2.2% decline in the industry [7] Strategic Moves - The recent acquisition of the Cripple Creek & Victor mine from Newmont Corporation positions SSR Mining as the third-largest gold producer in the United States, expected to boost annual production by 170,000 ounces of gold [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook for **India** within the **Asia Pacific** region, particularly in the context of ongoing trade tensions and their impact on growth prospects [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Growth Outlook**: Despite skepticism from investors regarding India's growth narrative, the report argues that a recovery in domestic demand is underway, which will help India outperform other economies in the region [7][9]. 2. **Monetary and Fiscal Policy**: The unexpected slowdown in growth was attributed to a double tightening of fiscal and monetary policies, which was not warranted by macro stability indicators [11][12]. 3. **Government Expenditure**: Government spending, which constitutes 28% of GDP, contracted significantly but is now recovering, particularly in capital expenditure, which is projected to grow by 10.1% in the upcoming fiscal year [12][24]. 4. **GST Revenue Growth**: Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue growth has accelerated, indicating a positive trend in economic activity, with a growth rate of 10.7% in early 2025 compared to previous quarters [22][23]. 5. **Services Exports**: Services exports have become increasingly important, reaching approximately **US$414 billion**, which is close to the size of goods exports. This sector has shown resilience and growth, even amid global trade slowdowns [38][39]. 6. **Inflation and Real Incomes**: A decline in food inflation is expected to improve real household incomes, supporting consumption recovery. Headline inflation has decreased to **4.3%** from a peak of **6.2%** [33][34]. 7. **Private Consumption Recovery**: Private consumption growth has shown signs of recovery, with real growth accelerating to **6.9%** year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024 [55][57]. 8. **Capex Outlook**: The report anticipates a recovery in government capital expenditure, while private capital expenditure is expected to recover at a slower pace due to global uncertainties [65][66]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Trade Risks**: India faces direct tariff risks, particularly concerning its high tariff rates on select imports. However, its low goods exports to GDP ratio suggests it is less exposed to global trade slowdowns compared to other Asian economies [74][75]. 2. **Trade Deal Prospects**: A potential trade deal with the US is anticipated by Fall 2025, which could help mitigate tariff impacts, although uncertainties remain regarding the specifics of any tariff increases [76][81]. 3. **Job Market Trends**: Job creation is expected to improve, supported by robust services exports, which should lead to stronger urban consumption over time [60][61]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting India's economic recovery prospects, the role of government policy, and the importance of services exports in the current economic landscape.