Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates aggressively in early 2026 due to labor market weakness, inflation uncertainty, and political pressure, according to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Conditions - The job market is still flagging, particularly in early 2026, which will lead to insufficient job growth and rising unemployment, prompting the Fed to cut rates [2]. - Zandi anticipates three cuts of a quarter percentage point each before mid-year 2026, contrasting with market expectations of only two cuts later in the year [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Outlook - Current market pricing indicates a first cut not until at least April 2026, with a second cut likely around September, while Fed officials are even more cautious, expecting only one cut throughout the year [3][4]. - The Fed's individual officials' expectations suggest a tepid pace for any potential reductions, with recent minutes indicating that the decision for a cut was a close call [4]. Group 3: Political Influence - The potential for President Trump to reshape the Fed's hierarchy adds uncertainty, as he currently has three appointees on the board and is likely to appoint another loyalist soon [5][6]. - Trump's advocacy for lower interest rates may lead to increased political pressure on the Fed, especially with midterm congressional elections approaching [7].

This week's market focus will be on US economic news. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to fall -11,000 to 225,000. Also, Nov CPI is expected to be +3.1% y/y, and Nov core CPI is expected to be +3.0% y/y. On Friday, Nov existing home sales are expected to be up +1.2% m/m to 4.15 million. Also, the University of Michigan Dec consumer sentiment index is expected to be revised upward by +0.2 to 53.5 from the previously reported 53.3.The US Dec S&P manufacturing PMI fell -0.4 to a 5-m ...

Group 1 - Brasada Capital Management's Q3 2025 investor letter indicates that the market is entering the fourth quarter with equities near all-time highs and easing monetary policy, suggesting potential for continued momentum despite signs of a capital expenditure bubble [1] - The firm is selectively investing in companies with strong moats and cash flows while avoiding balance-sheet risks [1] Group 2 - Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (NYSE:FERG) is highlighted as a key stock, with a one-month return of -6.01% and a 52-week gain of 21.71%, closing at $228.20 per share on December 11, 2025, with a market capitalization of $45.818 billion [2] - Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is the largest scaled specialty distributor for North American plumbing, HVAC, and waterworks, with revenue split approximately 51% residential and 49% non-residential, and 60% from repair & replace (R&R) and 40% from new housing builds [3] - About 85% of Ferguson's revenue comes from finished goods, with plumbing making up around 50% of the product mix, and approximately 95% of revenue generated in the U.S. [3]

Group 1 - Traders are increasing bets on lower interest rates following the anticipated announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair and the release of delayed economic data [1][2] - The demand for short-term curve structures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) indicates expectations for monetary policy easing after Jerome Powell's term ends in May [2][4] - The frontrunner for the new Fed chair position is Kevin Hassett, as indicated by President Trump, which has led to increased trading activity in futures markets [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming announcement of the new Fed chair is expected to create a "shadow Fed chair," potentially complicating the Fed's communication of monetary policy [4] - Delayed labor market data, set to be released on December 16, could influence market expectations for dovish monetary policy if it confirms signs of softening in the labor market [5][6] - Recent trading activity has shown a preference for positions that benefit from a curve steepening, particularly targeting short-dated futures [6] Group 3 - Wagers on a dovish policy shift have resulted in a decline in 10-year Treasury yields, which fell below 4% last week [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.08%, down from 4.11%, reflecting market reactions to expectations of rate cuts [7]

Core Insights - The CoinShares Bitcoin ETF (BRRR) and CoinShares Bitcoin and Ether ETF (BTF) have shown gains, indicating a maturation phase in the bitcoin market similar to a company's post-IPO period [1][4] - Bitcoin's market cap is approximately $2 trillion, allowing for a prolonged distribution phase for early holders without causing market disruption [5] Performance of ETFs - BRRR gained 7.4% over the past week and currently holds $518 million in assets, tracking the spot price of bitcoin through direct holdings [3] - BTF, which provides exposure to both bitcoin and ether, climbed about 9% over the past week and holds $33 million in assets [3] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is in a distribution phase where long-term holders can exit positions without negatively impacting the market, aided by the liquidity provided by ETFs [2][5] - The implied overnight interest rates suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue easing monetary policy through 2026, potentially supporting Bitcoin prices during the distribution phase [6] Price Trends - Bitcoin is currently trading at around $91,920, having reached an all-time high of over $126,198 in October [7]

Crypto inflows. Photo by BeInCrypto Digital asset investment products saw $1.07 billion in inflows after four weeks of outflows, as hopes for US Federal Reserve rate cuts revived investor confidence. Market sentiment shifted following comments from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member John Williams, who indicated monetary policy remains restrictive. This fueled expectations of a possible rate cut in December and spurred renewed investment. Rate Cut Hopes Trigger Over $1 Billion Crypto Inflows Th ...

Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Silver prices surged over 5% to $56 per ounce, marking the strongest single-day rally in over a year, driven by tightening supplies and concerns of a global shortage [1] - Year-to-date, silver has gained 95%, on track for its best performance since 1979 [1] Group 2: Market Imbalances in China - Silver on-warrant inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 9,361 kilograms to 531,211 kilograms, the lowest level since 2015 [3] - China's silver exports in October reached over 660 tonnes, a new all-time high, indicating a tight market [4] - Shanghai has entered backwardation, signaling immediate physical scarcity in the silver market [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - Growing expectations of monetary policy easing have contributed to silver's rally, with a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its December 10 meeting [6] Group 4: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - Historically, silver has averaged a 2.12% gain in December, making it the third-strongest month of the year [7] - Silver closes December in positive territory 60% of the time, with the best returns occurring in 1997 and 2020, both around 17% [8] Group 5: Mining Stocks Performance - The rally in silver has reignited interest in mining equities, with the Global X Silver Miners ETF rising over 12% in just two days [9] - Notable gains among silver-focused miners include Aya Gold & Silver Inc. up 14.18%, Andean Precious Metals Corp. up 12.66%, and Discovery Silver Corp. up 12.39% [10]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is closed on November 27, 2025, for Thanksgiving, following a strong performance midweek with major indexes extending their winning streak [1] - Major U.S. benchmark indices posted solid gains on November 26, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.67%, S&P 500 advancing 0.69%, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 0.82% [2] Investor Sentiment - The market's upward trajectory is attributed to increasing investor confidence in a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with an 83% to 85% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction [3] - Positive sentiment is further supported by strong performance in the technology sector and a notable surge in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin reaching $91,500 [3] Upcoming Events - The focus shifts to the abbreviated trading session on November 28, 2025, with no major economic reports scheduled for release [4] - The Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10 is significant, with expectations for an interest rate cut, supported by the "Beige Book" report indicating little change in economic activity [5] Market Projections - Major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, project continued market strength, forecasting the S&P 500 to reach 7,500 by the end of 2026, with potential growth past 8,000 if aggressive rate cuts are implemented [6] - Anticipated earnings growth for U.S. companies is projected at 13% to 15% over the next two years [6] Corporate Developments - In the technology sector, Nvidia and Microsoft were key drivers of the midweek rally, with Nvidia rising 1.4% and Microsoft gaining 1.8% [8] - Alphabet's stock surged by 6.3% earlier in the week due to enthusiasm surrounding its new Gemini AI model, although it experienced a 1% dip on Wednesday [8] - Dell Technologies closed up 5.83%, while Oracle jumped 4% after a bullish view from Deutsche Bank [8] - Other notable movements included Teradyne Inc. rising 6.98% and Newmont Goldcorp Corp. gaining 4.93%, while Deere & Company fell 5.7% due to a downbeat forecast [9] Corporate Announcements - HP Inc. plans to cut 4,000 to 6,000 jobs globally by 2028 to streamline operations and integrate AI into product development [10] - Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. reported a cyber-attack potentially leaking personal information of over 1.5 million customers [10] - Wipro announced a strategic alliance to advance research in various AI technologies [11] - IMPACT Silver Corp. reported a 24% increase in Q3 2025 revenue, driven by higher silver prices [11] - Azad India Mobility saw a 240% jump in Profit After Tax for Q2 FY26 due to rising demand for electric mobility [11]

Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran believes banking regulations are too tight and advocates for a re-evaluation to prevent economic slowdown risks [2][9] - Miran identifies shelter costs as the primary driver of inflation, emphasizing housing's greater impact on the economy compared to the equity market [3][9] - He anticipates significant disinflation in housing services due to population shifts and the lag in market rents affecting inflation data [3] Energy Markets - The U.S. API report shows an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 2.78 million barrels, surpassing the forecast of 2.25 million barrels, contrasting with a previous decrease of 3.674 million barrels [5][9] Equity Markets - Nasdaq reported a substantial increase in U.S. equity options volume for September, reaching 378 million contracts, a 42% year-over-year rise [6][9] Emerging and Frontier Markets - FTSE Russell has placed Egypt on a watch list for potential reclassification from a secondary emerging market to frontier market status, and Nigeria is also under review for similar reclassification [7][9] Corporate Developments - Grupo Mexico has stated it has no interest in a bidding war for Citigroup's Banamex unit, indicating a potential public listing if its current offer is successful [10][9]

Core Insights - The ADP Employment report indicates a surprising loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contrary to expectations of a 51,000 job gain, raising concerns about a potential economic downturn [2][5] - The job losses were primarily among small and medium-sized businesses, with small establishments losing 40,000 jobs and medium-sized firms shedding 20,000 positions, while large businesses added 33,000 jobs [4] - A significant downward revision of August's employment figures from a gain of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000 jobs has compounded the negative outlook, showing that private sector employment has declined in three of the last four months [5] Economic Implications - The weak employment data is expected to increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, with analysts suggesting a higher likelihood of a 0.25% cut in the federal funds target at the upcoming October meeting [5] - The ADP report has gained increased significance due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspending its data releases, leading to heightened scrutiny of its implications for the economy [3]