Now, as I mentioned, markets staging a comeback today thanks to cooler inflation data. NASDAQ's the big standout, pushed higher by AI, MAG7, and of course, Micron. Is this a sign we're going to see a rotation back into these names or have investors moved on.Joining me now are Keith Learner from Truest Wealth and Warren Pives from 314 Research. Guys, welcome. Warren, how good was this inflation report versus what some of the fears were out there.Disinflation perhaps. Yeah, thanks for having me, John. I I thi ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for 2026 is characterized as a "proud bull" market, focusing on profit growth rather than multiple expansion, particularly in midterm election years which tend to bring more volatility [1]. Market Dynamics - Current market dynamics show small caps at all-time highs while the NASDAQ is lagging, suggesting this may not be a temporary phenomenon but indicative of future market conditions [3][4]. - There is an expectation of increased volatility in the tech and communication services sectors as growth rates are questioned amidst ongoing capital investment buildout [4]. Small Cap Performance - Small caps are gaining traction and have been overweighted since the beginning of the year, with fiscal relief measures such as 100% expensing and lower rates benefiting this segment [5][6]. - The overall sentiment towards small caps is positive, with an overweight position in large cap, midcap, and small cap equities [6]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent liquidity announcement marks a shift from quantitative tightening to increasing liquidity, which is viewed as a risk-on move aimed at stabilizing funding markets [7][8]. - The Fed's proactive measures are expected to support market performance, with a potential adjustment in liquidity levels anticipated [8].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its S&P 500 year-end target for 2026 to 7,800, driven by strong earnings growth and AI-enhanced efficiency gains [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market's positive shift began in April 2025, reversing previous negative growth assumptions due to supportive government policies [2] - The government's "Big Beautiful bill" is expected to enhance capital expenditure and provide tax benefits for consumers in the first half of 2026 [2] - The Federal Reserve's actions are also contributing to market momentum [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The market is anticipated to broaden beyond a few major names, with potential in sectors like consumer discretionary, underperforming financials, transports, and consumer products [3] - These sectors have low earnings multiples, which may lead to earnings surprises and subsequent multiple expansion [3] Group 3: Stock Recommendations - A list of 11 stocks has been curated based on analyst ratings and hedge fund sentiment, focusing on those with over 25% upside potential [6][7] - The methodology includes analyzing top holdings from quality factor ETFs and ranking them by analyst upside potential [6] Group 4: Company Highlights - **NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)**: - Hedge fund holders: 234, Analyst upside potential: 25.06% [8] - Recent partnerships with Mistral AI and AWS enhance its AI capabilities and cloud infrastructure [10][11] - **The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD)**: - Hedge fund holders: 104, Analyst upside potential: 25.93% [12] - Mixed opinions from analysts following Q3 2026 results, with revenue growth of 2.82% year-over-year to $41.35 billion, but EPS of $3.74 fell short of consensus [13][14] - The company is positioned for market share gains despite recent performance challenges [14][15]

Group 1 - Hila Packard Enterprise missed revenue expectations, while Ulta exceeded earnings and revenue estimates [1] - Morgan Stanley raised its 12-month S&P target to 7,800, indicating a bullish outlook for the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's actions are expected to provide a tailwind for the market, contributing to a broadening out of investment opportunities [4] Group 2 - There is a significant benefit to consumers from tax cuts and increased deductions, which may positively impact spending in the first half of next year [3] - Certain sectors, particularly consumer discretionary and underperforming financials, are seen as potential areas for investment growth [4][5] - The middle-income cohort is identified as the biggest beneficiary of the tax bill, with a high propensity to spend [7]

Home Builders Industry - Evercore has downgraded the home builders sector, indicating that margins must bottom before stocks can rerate, which is not expected to happen in the next several months [1] - D.R. Horton (DHI) shares fell by 5%, reflecting a broader negative sentiment in the home builders group [1] Milrose Properties - Milrose Properties was spun off from Lennar (LAR) in February and operates as a land bank, separating high-risk, high-reward growth from asset-heavy, slow-growth cash flow operations [3][4] - The company holds thousands of acres of land across 10 states and offers a 9% dividend yield, with plans to distribute all earnings and funds from operations as dividends [4][5] - Milrose has a unique external management structure by Kennedy Lewis, which may impose a valuation cap but allows for consistent cash flow through land options for builders like Lennar [6][5] Kimberly Clark - Kimberly Clark, known for brands like Kleenex and Huggies, is trading at a 52-week low with a 4.2% dividend yield and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 [8][10] - The company has divested its international family care and professional business, which analysts believe has not been fully accounted for in earnings projections [9] - JP Morgan has set a price target of $144 for Kimberly Clark, suggesting potential for earnings growth of 3-6% in the future, with possible upward revisions from analysts [10][11]

Market Performance and Bank Stocks - The expansion of the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is driving bank stock prices higher, indicating that investors are willing to pay more for bank earnings [1][2] - Both earnings and the P/E multiple are increasing for banks, contributing to upward stock price momentum [2] - The Federal Reserve's decisions still significantly impact bank stocks, despite current market perceptions suggesting otherwise [2][3] Jim Cramer's Stock Recommendations - Bloom Energy Corporation (NYSE:BE) has seen a substantial increase of approximately 230% year-to-date, rising from $25 to $72, attributed to its technology and contracts in the data center sector [8] - New Gold Inc. (NYSE:NGD) is viewed positively in the context of rising gold prices, with Cramer favoring Agnico Eagle as a stronger investment option [9]

Market Performance & Outlook - The market has experienced a significant rally of approximately 30% since the April lows [1][2] - The industry anticipates market consolidation in the coming month, influenced by seasonality and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve and the potential impact of AI on the labor force [5][6] - The industry expects to end the year higher, despite anticipating a period of consolidation [18] - The industry views that it's reasonable to expect the market to be up a couple of percentage points by the end of this year from current levels [19] Earnings & Growth - The industry expects high single-digit earnings growth for the full year 2025 and believes it's reasonable to expect similar numbers in 2026, even with a potential economic slowdown [7] - The industry's stock market return depends on multiple expansion, which is influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions [9] Interest Rates & Federal Reserve Policy - The industry anticipates a rate cut in September, with December being more likely than October [8] - The industry believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause and evaluate data, leading to macro volatility over the next 6 months [9] - The industry believes that expecting a rate cut at every meeting until mid-2026 may be unrealistic [9] Tariffs & Market Sentiment - The market is seeking certainty regarding tariffs, whether the original tariffs announced in April or a future version, to incorporate them into models [13] - The industry believes that the panic surrounding tariffs has subsided, and analysts are revising estimates upward, fading the worst-case scenarios [14]