All right, let's talk uh to Stephen Moore about the economy, Trumpomics heading into 2026. He is the co-founder of Unleash Prosperity. He's also a former economic adviser to President Trump.Good to see you, Steve. >> Hi, Joe. Merry Christmas.Happy New Year. >> Yep. Same to you.>> The president says the T-word, tariffs, is the most beautiful word in the English language. Uh on the other side of that, we had the naysayers forecasting a deep recession starting in April uh of last year from the tariffs. You're ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the puzzling behavior of bond yields in the context of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, highlighting a disconnect between expected outcomes and actual market reactions [2][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve began easing rates last September, with a total reduction of 1.5 percentage points expected to continue through 2025 [4]. - A further quarter-point rate cut is anticipated, with traders pricing in additional cuts in 2026 [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Reactions - Despite the Fed's rate cuts, the 30-year Treasury yield is around 4.8% and the 10-year yield is approximately 4.17%, both of which have risen over the past month [6]. - Higher yields are impacting borrowing costs across the economy, contrary to the administration's goal of lowering mortgage rates and business loan costs [7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Economic Factors - Investors are concerned about shifts in trade policy and increasing national debt, leading to a sell-off in government debt and rising yields [8]. - Historically, deficits have had minimal impact on Treasury yields due to the U.S.'s economic dominance, but current trade dynamics may be altering this relationship [9]. - Higher yields indicate that investors are demanding greater compensation for risks associated with rising deficits and policy uncertainties, reflecting skepticism about the Fed's continued rate cuts amid persistent inflation [11].

Core Insights - President Trump claims that the tariff regime will generate significant revenue, allowing for debt reduction and potential dividends to American citizens [1][2] - The projected revenue from tariffs is currently falling short of expectations, with actual customs duties for fiscal year 2025 at $195.9 billion, while interest payments on national debt are significantly higher at $1.22 trillion [3][4] - The Congressional Budget Office has revised its long-term projections for tariff revenue down from $4 trillion to $3 trillion, indicating a decrease in expected effectiveness of the tariff scheme [5] Revenue Generation - Tariffs are expected to bring in trillions of dollars to the U.S. economy in the long term, but current figures show only $195.9 billion generated in customs duties for fiscal year 2025 [3] - In October, tariffs generated a record monthly income of $31.4 billion, an increase from $29.7 billion in September [3] Debt Impact - The yearly income from tariffs is estimated to be within the $300 billion to $400 billion range, which is insufficient to cover the interest payments on the national debt [4] - For fiscal year 2026, the government has already incurred $104 billion in interest payments at a rate of 3.355% [4] Economic Projections - The Congressional Budget Office's recent report indicates a downward revision of tariff revenue projections, with a reduction of $1 trillion in expected deficit reduction [5] - The CBO attributes two-thirds of this revision to new data and adjustments in tariff rates, which have lowered the effective tariff rate overall [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is heavily reliant on AI, with significant risks stemming from this concentration, as it masks deeper structural vulnerabilities [2][4][5]. Economic Dependency on AI - Approximately 40% of U.S. economic growth in 2023 is attributed to capital expenditure on AI infrastructure [2]. - Nearly 80% of recent gains in the U.S. stock market are driven by AI-related investments, indicating a "maniacal focus" on this sector [3]. Structural Vulnerabilities - The enthusiasm for AI is obscuring critical issues such as a fiscal deficit exceeding 6% of GDP and national debt surpassing 100% of GDP [4]. - Global investors are currently overlooking these deficits, betting on an AI-driven productivity boom to mitigate the debt concerns [4]. Market Bubble Concerns - The current market environment is characterized as a bubble, with the potential for inflation to trigger a tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which could end the prevailing euphoria [5][6]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - To mitigate concentration risk, diversification into undervalued assets in international markets such as China, India, and recovering European markets is advised [7]. - The performance gap between U.S. and international markets is narrowing, suggesting opportunities for investors to explore [7]. ETF Performance - Notable U.S.-listed AI-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shown positive year-to-date and one-year performance, indicating investor interest in this sector [9][10].

🇺🇸 Can a Bitcoin treasury fix the national debt? 🧐Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) calls it "smoke and mirrors.""It's almost like saying 'we're the reserve currency, but not really... we don't believe in it ourselves.'" https://t.co/pgoFFiQaEY ...

Group 1 - The article expresses skepticism about the likelihood of a market crash, suggesting that the current bearish sentiment may be overstated and more applicable to the short-term [1] - It highlights concerns regarding national debt and its implications for the market, indicating that this is a recurring theme in current discussions [1] Group 2 - The author emphasizes a focus on actionable, hype-free analysis in their market report, which includes technical, macroeconomic, and sentiment analysis [1]

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown is significantly hindering the economy, with the national debt exceeding $38 trillion, marking a record level of federal indebtedness [1] - The increasing national debt is expected to lead to higher borrowing costs, particularly affecting the housing market and mortgage rates in the medium to long term [3][6] Mortgage Rate Trends - Current mortgage rates are unlikely to return to the previous levels of 3% or even 4%, with a shift towards a higher interest rate environment anticipated [2][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences mortgage rates, is expected to rise, potentially leading to mortgage rates near or above 7.5% by 2054 due to the increasing national debt [7] Predictions from Industry Experts - Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers predicts that the bond market may "hit a wall," causing bond yields and mortgage rates to rise significantly, with a potential increase of 75 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [5] - MBA chief economist Mike Fratantoni forecasts that mortgage interest rates will remain in the 6% to 6.5% range through the end of 2028, with a likelihood of long-term rates increasing due to fiscal pressures [6] Housing Market Adjustments - The housing market must adapt to a new reality of higher interest rates, with buyers advised not to rely on future refinancing opportunities to lower their rates [9] - Families may face fewer choices and higher mortgage costs due to debt-driven high interest rates, which could also lead to housing scarcity as developers may abandon projects [8]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The gross federal debt of the United States has surpassed $38 trillion, marking the fastest addition of $1 trillion outside of a pandemic, with a rate of increase now twice that seen since 2000 [4][5] - The U.S. now has a gross debt to GDP ratio of approximately 119% and an annual deficit exceeding 7%, placing it among nations with lower credit ratings than its former AAA peers [5] Group 2: Government Spending and Fiscal Policy - There is a lack of political will to address popular entitlement programs and defense expenditures, contributing to the unsustainable trajectory of national debt [5][6] - The ongoing government shutdown, now the second-longest on record, is tied to disputes over fiscal spending, including tax credits under the Affordable Care Act [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Safe havens like gold have seen significant gains this year, reflecting investor concerns over rising debt levels and a weakening dollar [5] - WTI crude futures increased following new U.S. sanctions against Russia's top oil companies, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical events [3]

Hello everyone. Risk assets and safe haven assets, they're both going higher at the same time. We're going to unpack why.Prediction markets may be telling us when the government shutdown's going to end. And the latest humanoid videos, it's going to blow your mind. And the future is already here.We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. [Music] Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube, and the people are saying it's not possible.But ...

Group 1: Company News - Rite Aid, once a major pharmacy chain in the US, has closed its remaining 89 stores after filing for bankruptcy for the second time in less than two years [2] - The number of individual Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings in the US increased by 15% in the first nine months of the year compared to the previous year, totaling 249,152 filings [7] - Maxwell House coffee is rebranding as "Maxwell Apartment" and temporarily lowering its price to $39.99 for four canisters, aiming to save consumers over $1000 annually compared to cafe purchases [15] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Housing affordability in the US has improved, with the monthly principal and interest payment on an average-priced home at $2148, which is 30% of the median household income, still above the long-run average [10][11] - Shipping costs from Shanghai to Los Angeles have dropped to $2311, the lowest since December 2023, with US import volumes projected to decline by 19% year-over-year by January 2026 [15] - The US national debt is nearing $38 trillion, with annual deficits approaching $2 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current debt-based monetary system [20][25] Group 3: Market Performance - The stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow losing 1.9%, the S&P 500 falling approximately 2.7%, and the Nasdaq sliding 3.6% in response to President Trump's tariff promises [18] - Gold prices have increased by approximately 50% this year, marking the best annual performance since 1979, yet 40% of fund managers still do not own gold [32]