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'Fast Money' traders discuss interest rate cut hopes, market rally
CNBC Television· 2025-08-22 22:07
Did the Federal Reserve chair give the green light for markets to keep rallying through the end of summer. Let's talk about it. Let's trade it.Tim Seymour, I get it. The hopes and dreams of a rate cut sparking buyers to come in, but I just Is there any part of you that thinks the market maybe got a little ahead of itself. Well, I I think inflation is still an issue for the Fed.I I am not surprised we got a doubbish comment today and I do expect we will get a hawkish cut in September. I do think markets have ...
Debate Heats Up Over Fed's Next Move | Real Yield 8/15/2025
Bloomberg Television· 2025-08-15 18:10
VONNIE: FROM NEW YORK CITY FOR OUR VIEWERS WORLDWIDE, I AM VONNIE QUINN. BLOOMBERG REALLY YIELD STARTS RIGHT NOW. VONNIE: CONSUMER SENTIMENT SINKS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE APRIL AS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE.THE DATA PUTTING A DAMPER ON A SOLID RETAIL SALES PRINT WITH PRICE PRESSURES UP IN THIS WEEK'S PPI REPORT. GREAT RATE DEBATE HEATS UP RATE WHAT SHOULD THE FED DO AT ITS MEETING NEXT MONTH. INFLATION CONCERNS FRONT AND CENTER. >> INFLATION IS ALIVE AND WELL.>> WE ARE IN A STAGFLATION ENVIRONMENT. >> WE ...
摩根士丹利:贸易不确定性与移民确定性
摩根· 2025-06-04 01:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the economy, with no changes to the baseline outlook despite recent court rulings affecting tariffs [8][12]. Core Insights - Trade policy remains uncertain due to the recent ruling against IEEPA-based tariffs, but the administration may still recreate its tariff structure under different legal authorities [10][11]. - Immigration estimates have been revised down, projecting 800,000 for this year and 500,000 for next year, which will contribute to slower population and labor force growth [21][22]. - Potential growth is expected to decline to 2.0% this year and possibly 1.5% next year, influenced by low immigration and its effects on labor market dynamics [8][31]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy - The US Court of International Trade ruled against IEEPA-based tariffs, creating uncertainty in trade policy, but the administration may utilize other legislative authorities to maintain tariff structures [9][10]. - The effective tariff rate could decrease if IEEPA tariffs are removed, impacting duties collected in fiscal year 2025 [13][14]. Immigration and Labor Market - Immigration is projected to slow, with a revised outlook of 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year, leading to tighter labor market conditions despite slower employment growth [21][22]. - The breakeven employment rate has been adjusted down to 90,000 for 2025, indicating that lower immigration will make it harder to push the unemployment rate higher [27][29]. Economic Growth - The potential growth rate has returned to pre-pandemic averages around 2.0%, with expectations of further decline due to immigration restrictions [31][32]. - The neutral interest rate is estimated to be lower, around 80 basis points, reflecting slower potential growth and the implications for future monetary policy [32][33]. GDP and Spending - Recent data indicates a cooling economy, with Q1 GDP growth revised to -0.2% and personal consumption growth revised down to 1.2% [15][16][17]. - The labor market shows signs of moderation, with initial jobless claims remaining stable but continuing claims reaching the highest post-pandemic level [18][19].