Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei average index has reached new highs in September, raising concerns among investors about potential overvaluation and the risk of a market correction similar to past events [2][4][6]. Price Fluctuation Indicators - The Nikkei average index is currently 16% above the 200-day moving average, a level reminiscent of the period before a significant drop in July 2024 [4][5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 79.6%, indicating overbought conditions as it exceeds the 70% threshold [5][6]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is at 18.3 times, within the range observed post-Lehman crisis, while the price-to-book ratio (PBR) is at 1.6 times, indicating potential upper limits [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The credit buying balance is at 4.1891 trillion yen, which is below the year's peak and the levels seen before the summer 2024 drop, suggesting no overheating in this area [6]. - The arbitrage trading buy balance has slightly increased to over 1 billion shares, indicating a mild overheating due to stock splits and other factors [5][8]. - The credit selling balance has reached a six-year high at 1.1229 trillion yen, indicating a significant number of investors are shorting stocks, which could lead to a buying rush if positive news emerges [8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are mixed sentiments regarding the market's future, with some analysts suggesting the Nikkei average could rise to around 47,000 points by year-end due to ongoing corporate stock buybacks [9]. - Despite the current indicators suggesting potential overvaluation, some experts argue that the market may continue to rise unexpectedly, highlighting the unpredictable nature of stock movements [9].

受围绕"对等关税"问题的特朗普政府动向影响，上周日经平均股指出现剧烈波动。 本周，日美两国政府将就关税问题展开谈判。市场一方面对谈判的进展抱有期待，另一方面也警惕日元 贬值修正问题可能成为谈判议题。如果日元升值加速，可能会压低企业业绩，引发日本股市走向"二次 探底"的担忧情绪正在蔓延。 市场一方面对日美关税谈判的进展抱有期待，另一方面也警惕日元贬值修正问题可能成为谈 判议题。如果日元升值加速，可能会压低企业业绩。当日经平均股指下跌时，触底点位是多 少？ | 2017年 | "美元过于强势" | | --- | --- | | 1月 | "中国和日本在市场上多年诱导货币贬值 | | | 美国因此吃了大亏" | | 2018年 | "中国、欧盟以及其他国家都在操控货币 压低利率" | | 7月 | "剥夺我们伟大的竞争力" | | 2025年 | "无论是日本的日元还是中国的人民币, | | 3月 | 他们让货币贬值,都会给我们带来非常不 | | | 公平的损失" ◎ 中文网 | | 4月7日 | "日本将继续是紧密的盟友。我期待在关 税、非关税壁垒、货币问题以及政府补贴 | | | 等方面采取建设性的措施" | ...