Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei average index has reached new highs in September, raising concerns among investors about potential overvaluation and the risk of a market correction similar to past events [2][4][6]. Price Fluctuation Indicators - The Nikkei average index is currently 16% above the 200-day moving average, a level reminiscent of the period before a significant drop in July 2024 [4][5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 79.6%, indicating overbought conditions as it exceeds the 70% threshold [5][6]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is at 18.3 times, within the range observed post-Lehman crisis, while the price-to-book ratio (PBR) is at 1.6 times, indicating potential upper limits [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The credit buying balance is at 4.1891 trillion yen, which is below the year's peak and the levels seen before the summer 2024 drop, suggesting no overheating in this area [6]. - The arbitrage trading buy balance has slightly increased to over 1 billion shares, indicating a mild overheating due to stock splits and other factors [5][8]. - The credit selling balance has reached a six-year high at 1.1229 trillion yen, indicating a significant number of investors are shorting stocks, which could lead to a buying rush if positive news emerges [8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are mixed sentiments regarding the market's future, with some analysts suggesting the Nikkei average could rise to around 47,000 points by year-end due to ongoing corporate stock buybacks [9]. - Despite the current indicators suggesting potential overvaluation, some experts argue that the market may continue to rise unexpectedly, highlighting the unpredictable nature of stock movements [9].