Spot Market - On February 4, PTA futures experienced a slight increase, with a subdued trading atmosphere in the spot market and a strong spot basis. The trading range for prices was between 5080 and 5190, with some transactions occurring at -68 and 60 basis points for the 05 contract [1] Profitability - As of February 4, the PTA spot processing fee was around 405 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 contracts were 489 yuan/ton and 439 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of January 29, PTA operating rates remained stable at 76.6% - Demand: By January 30, with the approach of the Spring Festival, polyester production cuts increased, leading to a decline in overall load to 84.2% (a decrease of 2%). On February 4, the price of polyester yarn saw a local decline, and overall sales were weak. Despite a rebound in gold, silver, and stock markets, the macro atmosphere improved, and raw material prices slightly increased, factories were promoting sales, but the results were unsatisfactory. High yarn prices and the gradual holiday schedule for downstream sectors significantly affected stocking sentiment. Future attention will be on raw material price trends and factory maintenance plans for the Spring Festival [3] Market Outlook - After the release of cost-side risks, the chemical sector has seen some recovery from low levels. The trading atmosphere in the downstream has improved, and the PTA basis has strengthened. In February, there are no new maintenance plans for PTA, while demand is expected to decline around the Spring Festival, leading to a low point in polyester operating rates for the year and a weak supply-demand outlook for PTA, with expectations of significant inventory accumulation. Before the Spring Festival, PTA's self-driven demand is weak, but in the second quarter, a tighter supply-demand balance is anticipated, providing some support for low prices. The strategy suggests that TA05 will oscillate between 5100 and 5400 in the short term, with a rolling low-long operation; TA5-9 is expected to be in a low-position spread [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market situation is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with high capital sentiment [1]. - In the cost - end, the US has postponed military operations against Iran, causing crude oil prices to decline, but potential risks remain [1]. - For PX, the PXN was 331 dollars/ton (with a 0 - dollar/ton change compared to the previous period). The fundamentals are weakening, but the medium - term expectation is still good [1]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 63 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee is 348 yuan/ton. In the short term, it is under pressure due to weak demand, but in the long - term, the processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1]. - The polyester start - up rate is 88.3% (a 2.5% decrease compared to the previous period). The polyester load will accelerate its decline as the Spring Festival maintenance plans are implemented [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 8 yuan/ton (a 24 - yuan/ton decrease compared to the previous period), and the market is mainly in a state of waiting and digestion [2]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 552 yuan/ton, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired [2]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish in the short - term under increased capital positions. In the medium - term, buy on dips after a pullback for hedging. For cross - variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][12] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [14][18] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [20][22] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [23][26][28] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][35][36] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profits [43][45][53] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][71][74] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][91]

Market Overview - On January 14, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and closed lower, with a general lack of trading atmosphere in the spot market and weak spot basis [1] - The trading range for January cargo was around 5030-5120, with a basis of 69-70 [1] - The main spot basis was at 05-70 [1] Profitability - As of January 14, the PTA spot processing fee was approximately 327 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 were 335 yuan/ton and 338 yuan/ton, respectively [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of January 8, PTA operating rate was at 78.2% [1] - Demand: As of January 8, polyester operating rate remained stable at around 90.8% [1] - On January 14, the price of polyester filament increased by 50-100, but overall sales were weak [1] - Recent macroeconomic improvements and geopolitical factors have led to a rise in raw material prices, with low factory inventory levels reducing pressure on factories [1] - If macroeconomic conditions and raw material prices remain strong, polyester filament prices may rise [1] Market Outlook - This week saw significant changes in PTA facilities, with some restarting and others scheduled for maintenance, leading to a decrease in overall operating rates [1] - Downstream polyester production is expected to decrease seasonally before and after the Spring Festival, with high supply and weak demand resulting in a new round of production cuts for polyester filament starting January 14, with major manufacturers reducing output by 15% for a quarter [1] - Traders' willingness to hold inventory has weakened, leading to a continued decline in spot basis [1] - The supply-demand outlook for PTA in January is gradually weakening, with limited accumulation expected, but larger accumulation pressure anticipated in February [1] - The strategy for PTA is to expect fluctuations between 5000-5300 in the short term, while maintaining a low long position in the medium term [1]

Market Overview - On January 7, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, with a decent trading atmosphere in the spot market, primarily driven by traders, and a few polyester factories replenishing stock, leading to a strong spot basis [1] - The trading range for PTA was between 5020 and 5160, with transactions occurring at a basis of 40 near the end of January [1] Profit Analysis - As of January 7, the PTA spot processing fee was around 331 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 were 364 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton, respectively [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: As of January 4, Dushan Energy restarted 2.5 million tons, Zhongtai restarted 1.2 million tons but operated at low capacity, and Weilian Chemical increased its output, resulting in a PTA operating rate of 78.1% [1] - Demand: As of January 4, polyester operating rates were around 90.8%, with individual variations in production and sales. Factory inventory levels were relatively low, but a slight increase in inventory was noted due to insufficient production and sales [1] Market Outlook - With the recovery of PTA processing fees, uncertainties regarding PTA plant maintenance in Q1 have increased, and some supply has returned while downstream polyester production is expected to decrease seasonally around the Spring Festival [1] - The expectation for PTA supply and demand is weakening in January, with limited self-driven factors for PTA, primarily following raw material fluctuations. The short-term strategy for PTA is to oscillate between 5000 and 5200, while maintaining a low long position in the mid-term [1]

Market Overview - On January 6, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, with a relatively positive trading atmosphere in the spot market. The spot basis fluctuated within a range, with concentrated transactions in early January [1] - The main spot basis was at 05-46, with transactions occurring at 05-47 to 05-48 and later at 05-45 and 05-42 [1] Profitability - As of January 6, the PTA spot processing fee was around 296 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 futures were 329 yuan/ton and 336 yuan/ton, respectively [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of January 4, Dushan Energy's 2.5 million tons facility resumed operations, while Zhongtai's 1.2 million tons facility restarted at low capacity. Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million tons facility increased its output, resulting in a PTA operating rate of 78.1% [1] - Demand: As of January 4, there was a mix of facility restarts and maintenance, with polyester operating rates at approximately 90.8%. On January 6, there were localized adjustments in the price of polyester yarn, with individual sales performance varying. Factory inventory levels were relatively low, but inventory slightly increased due to insufficient sales. If raw material prices stabilize, short-term prices are expected to remain steady, with attention on upcoming holiday and maintenance plans [1] Market Outlook - With the recovery of PTA processing fees, uncertainties regarding PTA facility maintenance in Q1 have increased. Some facilities are returning to supply, while downstream polyester production is expected to decrease seasonally before and after the Spring Festival, leading to heightened expectations of inventory accumulation for PTA in Q1. The combination of high supply, weak demand, and significant losses will gradually highlight the pressure on polyester factories, prompting some to implement production cuts and maintenance plans for January and February. The supply-demand outlook for PTA in January is expected to weaken, with limited self-driven momentum for PTA, primarily following raw material fluctuations. The strategy suggests PTA will oscillate between 5000-5200 in the short term, with a low bullish approach in the medium term [1]

Market Overview - On December 24, PTA futures experienced a slight increase, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation and a slight weakening of the spot basis. The December contract was traded at a discount of 19, with prices ranging from 4975 to 5060 [1] - The processing fee for PTA spot reached approximately 221 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601, TA2603, and TA2605 were 315, 292, and 327 yuan/ton respectively [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of December 19, the production load of the 1.25 million ton PTA unit operated by INEOS was reduced, with a potential shutdown in the future, resulting in a PTA load of 73.2%, a decrease of 0.5% [1] - Demand: As of December 19, the polyester load slightly decreased to 91.1%, down by 0.1%. On December 24, the price of polyester filament adjusted locally, with overall production and sales remaining weak. Recent raw material price increases exceeded expectations, leading to increased downstream replenishment last Thursday and Friday, resulting in a slight increase in production and sales. However, the rapid reduction in downstream production loads indicates that it will take time to digest social inventory, which may shift inventory pressure back to factories in the near future [1] Market Outlook - With the significant rise in raw material PX prices, PTA and polyester product prices have also increased. Currently, there is not much supply-demand pressure on PTA, as maintenance of PTA units was concentrated in November and December, and polyester operating rates remain high due to domestic and international demand support. Additionally, the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to increase PTA export prospects, leading to a tighter supply-demand pattern in November and December, with PTA processing fees recovering [1] - In terms of absolute prices, PTA is expected to face maintenance of units in the first quarter under low processing fees, while seasonal reductions in polyester production before and after the Spring Festival may lead to inventory accumulation expectations for PTA in the first quarter. Furthermore, some major polyester manufacturers plan to gradually reduce production, limiting the upward momentum for PTA prices. The strategy suggests a cautious view on current prices following the rise in PX, with recommendations to reduce positions on highs and a mid-term bullish outlook [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strong [1][5][6] - PTA: Cost support is strong [1][6] - MEG: Demand is weak, and unilateral price continues to decline, with a weak mid - term trend [1][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite the planned polyester factory production cuts, the expectation of tight PX supply cannot be falsified in the short - term, and the short - term trend is strong. Attention should be paid to long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, as well as the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [5][6] - PTA: With strong cost support, the unilateral trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB positions and positive spread arbitrage. The tight PX supply provides cost support and continues to squeeze downstream profits. The short - term trend remains strong [6] - MEG: It is in a unilateral volatile market, and the mid - term trend is still weak. Polyester production cuts are negative for ethylene glycol demand, increasing the inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to whether unplanned production cuts and overhauls can be implemented. The short - term trend is weak, and a short - position allocation is maintained [6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PX futures closing price was 7302, up 44 (0.61%); the PX1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 66, down 32; the PX CFR China spot price was 896 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars; the PX - naphtha spread was 335.45, up 30.34 [2] - **Market Dynamics**: On December 24, 2025, the naphtha price fell in the late session. The 3 - month Asian PX spot was traded at 896 dollars/ton. The Asian PX price continued to rise on December 23, 2025, after a brief decline in the Asian morning session. A PX producer said the recent spot price jump was mainly due to futures rather than supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5] 3.2 PTA - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PTA futures closing price was 5082, up 42 (0.83%); the PTA1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 68, unchanged; the PTA East China spot price was 4955 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the PTA processing fee was 150.47, down 28.15 [2] 3.3 MEG - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the MEG futures closing price was 3623, down 112 (- 3.00%); the MEG1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 119, up 2; the MEG spot price was 3522, down 93 [2] 3.4 Polyester - **Production Cuts**: Some major Chinese polyester producers may consider reducing the production of some products. It is reported that three major polyester filament manufacturers will implement a 10% increase in POY production cuts on Wednesday this week, and continue the previous 15% FDY production cuts [5]

Market Overview - On December 9, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a downward trend, with a general atmosphere in the spot market being average and spot basis strengthening. Some polyester factories concentrated on replenishing stocks. Transactions for December goods were noted between 01-25 to 28, with some slightly higher at 01-20 to 22, and the price negotiation range was between 4610 to 4650. The mainstream spot basis was at 01-26 [1] Profitability - As of December 9, the PTA spot processing fee was around 185 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601, TA2603, and TA2605 were 203 yuan/ton, 247 yuan/ton, and 270 yuan/ton respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of December 5, PTA operating rates remained stable at 73.7% - Demand: As of December 5, polyester operating rates slightly increased to 91.8% (+0.3%). On December 9, the price of polyester filament showed local adjustments, with overall production and sales being weak. Demand is gradually weakening, but supply of polyester filament has increased in December. Downstream orders are insufficient, and export orders have also declined, leading to a gradual increase in inventory, with no immediate improvement on the raw material side, indicating a likely downward trend in polyester filament prices [3] Market Outlook - In December, PTA maintenance is still relatively concentrated, and the expected decline in polyester operating rates due to reduced domestic and external demand is postponed. Additionally, following the cancellation of India's BIS certification, PTA export expectations have increased, leading to an anticipated improvement in PTA supply and demand, with a phase of basis repair for PTA. The balance sheet indicates a tight supply and demand expectation for PTA in December, but overall expectations for the first quarter are relatively loose, suggesting limited space for basis repair. In terms of absolute prices, the medium-term outlook for PTA supply and demand is weak, with oil price support also being weak, indicating a weak and fluctuating trend for PTA absolute prices. The strategy suggests that TA may fluctuate in the range of 4500 to 4800 in the short term, with low positions in TA5-9 [4]

Market Overview - On November 24, PTA futures experienced a rise followed by a decline, with a general atmosphere of negotiation in the spot market. The spot basis strengthened, and some polyester factories made offers. Mainstream suppliers provided forward cargoes, with trading in the range of 4590 to 4665 for the 01 contract [1] - The processing fee for PTA spot reached approximately 212 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601 and TA2603 contracts were 244 yuan/ton and 253 yuan/ton respectively [2] Supply and Demand - As of November 21, PTA operating rates were reduced to 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. In contrast, polyester operating rates increased to around 91.3%, an increase of 1% [3] - On November 24, the price of polyester yarn saw a slight increase, although overall sales remained weak. The gradual lifting of BIS certification restrictions in India led to increased inquiries from Indian customers, resulting in a rise in exports of FDY fine denier yarn. Current factory inventories are low, but downstream sales have declined, leading to stable prices for polyester yarn. Future attention will be on downstream sales and the status of India's BIS certification [3] Price Outlook - With two PTA units in East China undergoing maintenance and the expected delay in domestic demand support for polyester, coupled with the cancellation of India's BIS certification, PTA exports are expected to increase. This indicates a significant recovery in PTA supply and demand expectations, with a phase of basis recovery for PTA [4] - The supply-demand outlook for PTA is expected to be tight from November to December, but overall, it is anticipated to be loose from December to the first quarter. Absolute prices for PTA are currently supported by oil demand and the cancellation of India's BIS certification, although the overall support from oil prices is limited, restricting the rebound potential for PTA [4] - The strategy suggests a short-term high-level fluctuation for TA, with the possibility of a phase of low-level positive spread [4]

Market Overview - On November 18, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation. The spot basis strengthened slightly, with limited offers from polyester factories. Transactions for November were reported at a discount of 70-72 for January contracts, with some lower at 75, and the price negotiation range was around 4580-4645 [1] - For December, transactions were noted at a discount of 65 for early December and 55-58 for late December, while November warehouse receipts were traded around 50 [1] Profitability - As of November 18, the PTA spot processing fee was approximately 186 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601 and TA2603 contracts were 237 yuan/ton and 262 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of November 14, PTA operating rates were at 75.7%, a decrease of 0.7%. A 2.5 million ton PTA facility in East China was scheduled for maintenance for about a week, and another 2.2 million ton PTA unit in Ningbo was planned for maintenance on November 20 [3] - Demand: By November 14, several bottle chip and filament facilities were under maintenance, leading to a decrease in polyester operating rates to approximately 90.3%, down by 1%. On November 18, the price of polyester filament showed minor adjustments, with overall sales being weak. The gradual lifting of BIS certification restrictions in India has led to increased inquiries from Indian customers, boosting exports of FDY fine denier yarn and resulting in price increases. Current factory inventories are low, and as the peak season comes to an end, short-term prices are expected to remain stable with limited downside [3] Market Outlook - This week, with two PTA facilities in East China undergoing maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. The supply-demand balance for PTA in November is tight, but expectations for December and the first quarter of next year lean towards a more relaxed supply-demand situation, limiting upward pressure on the basis. Absolute prices are currently supported by demand for adjusted oil and the cancellation of BIS certification in India, although recent speculative trading in oil has cooled down, and the actual impact of the BIS certification cancellation on exports remains to be seen. Coupled with limited overall support from oil prices, the rebound potential for PTA remains constrained. The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate within the 4500-4800 range in the short term, with a rolling reverse spread approach [4]