【现货方面】 1月14日，PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏弱。贸易商商谈为主，1月货在05贴 水69~70附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在5030~5120。本周仓单在05-55有成交，2月上在05贴水65~66有 成交。主流现货基差在05-70。 【利润方面】 供应：截止1月8日，PTA负荷至78.2%。 需求：截至1月8日，聚酯负荷持稳至90.8%附近。1月14日，涤丝价格重心涨50-100，产销整体偏弱。近 期宏观较好叠加地缘因素影响，原料同步上涨，涤丝价格跟进。工厂权益库存相对较低，工厂压力较 小。后期若是宏观和原料继续坚挺，涤丝价格易涨难跌。关注后期放假和检修计划。 【行情展望】 本周PTA装置变动较多，有装置重启，也有装置计划检修，整体开工有所下降；而下游聚酯春节前后季 节性降负，高供应弱需求且高亏损下，上周下游聚酯减产消息集中发酵后，本周涤纶长丝新一轮减产开 启(主流长丝大厂决定自1月14日起启动为期一个季度的连续减产，幅度为15%)，贸易商持货意愿减弱， 现货基差继续走弱。1月PTA供需预期逐步转弱，不过累库幅度有限，但2月累库压力较大，自身驱动有 限，跟随原料波动为主。策略上 ...

【现货方面】 1月7日，PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，贸易商商谈为主，少量聚酯工厂有补货，现货基 差偏强。个别主流供应商出货。本周在05贴水45附近商谈成交，月中在05贴水40附近成交，价格商谈区 间在5020~5160，1月底在主流05贴水40有成交。主流现货基差在05-41。 【利润方面】 1月7日，PTA现货加工费至331元/吨附近，TA2603盘面加工费364元/吨，TA2605盘面加工费350元/吨。 【供需方面】 供应：截止1月4日，独山能源250万吨重启，中泰120万吨重启后低负荷运行，威联化学250万吨装置提 负，PTA负荷在78.1%。 需求：截至1月4日，装置重启与检修并存，聚酯负荷至90.8%附近。1月6日，涤丝价格中心局部调整， 产销个体分化。当前工厂权益库存相对较低，近期产销不足的情况下，库存小幅攀升为主。若是原料端 暂稳，考虑后期放假因素，短期价格还是持稳为主。关注后期放假和检修计划。 【行情展望】 随着PTA加工费修复，1季度PTA装置检修不确定性增加，近期部分装置供应回归，而下游聚酯春节前 后季节性降负，使得PTA1季度累库预期增强，且高供应弱需求且高亏损下1月聚酯 ...

需求：截至1月4日，装置重启与检修并存，聚酯负荷至90.8%附近。1月6日，涤丝价格中心局部调整， 产销个体分化。当前工厂权益库存相对较低，近期产销不足的情况下，库存小幅攀升为主。若是原料端 暂稳，考虑后期放假因素，短期价格还是持稳为主。关注后期放假和检修计划。 1月6日，PTA现货加工费至296元/吨附近，TA2603盘面加工费329元/吨，TA2605盘面加工费336元/吨。 【供需方面】 供应：截止1月4日，独山能源250万吨重启，中泰120万吨重启后低负荷运行，威联化学250万吨装置提 负，PTA负荷在78.1%。 【现货方面】 1月6日，PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差区间波动，月下成交较为集中。本周货 源在05贴水47~48附近商谈成交，月中在05-45有成交，价格商谈区间在5040~5120。1月下在05贴水45有 成交，月底少量在05-42成交。本周仓单在05-48有成交。主流现货基差在05-46。 【利润方面】 【行情展望】 随着PTA加工费修复，1季度PTA装置检修不确定性增加，近期部分装置供应回归，而下游聚酯春节前 后季节性降负，使得PTA1季度累库预期增强，且高供应弱 ...

【供需方面】 供应：截止12月19日，英力士125万吨PTA装置降负运行，后期可能停车，PTA负荷至73.2%(-0.5%)。 【现货方面】 12月24日，PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走弱。12月货在01贴水19附近商谈 成交，价格商谈区间在4975~5060。1月货在05贴水73~77成交。主流现货基差在01-19。 【利润方面】 12月24日，PTA现货加工费至221元/吨附近，TA2601盘面加工费315元/吨，TA2603盘面加工费292元/ 吨，TA2605盘面加工费327元/吨。 【行情展望】 随着原料PX大涨，PTA及聚酯产品价格有所跟涨。当前PTA供需压力不大，11-12月PTA装置检修较集 中，且聚酯开工在内外需支撑负荷持续高位，叠加印度BIS认证取消后，PTA出口预期增加，11-12月 PTA供需格局偏紧，PTA加工费有所修复。绝对价格来看，1季度PTA在低加工费下仍有装置存检修预 期，而下游聚酯春节前后季节性降负，使得PTA1季度仍存累库预期，且近期部分聚酯大厂计划逐步降 负，PTA继续上涨驱动有限。策略上，PTA跟随PX大涨后谨慎看待当前价格，不排除聚酯端实质性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strong [1][5][6] - PTA: Cost support is strong [1][6] - MEG: Demand is weak, and unilateral price continues to decline, with a weak mid - term trend [1][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite the planned polyester factory production cuts, the expectation of tight PX supply cannot be falsified in the short - term, and the short - term trend is strong. Attention should be paid to long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, as well as the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [5][6] - PTA: With strong cost support, the unilateral trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB positions and positive spread arbitrage. The tight PX supply provides cost support and continues to squeeze downstream profits. The short - term trend remains strong [6] - MEG: It is in a unilateral volatile market, and the mid - term trend is still weak. Polyester production cuts are negative for ethylene glycol demand, increasing the inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to whether unplanned production cuts and overhauls can be implemented. The short - term trend is weak, and a short - position allocation is maintained [6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PX futures closing price was 7302, up 44 (0.61%); the PX1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 66, down 32; the PX CFR China spot price was 896 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars; the PX - naphtha spread was 335.45, up 30.34 [2] - **Market Dynamics**: On December 24, 2025, the naphtha price fell in the late session. The 3 - month Asian PX spot was traded at 896 dollars/ton. The Asian PX price continued to rise on December 23, 2025, after a brief decline in the Asian morning session. A PX producer said the recent spot price jump was mainly due to futures rather than supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5] 3.2 PTA - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PTA futures closing price was 5082, up 42 (0.83%); the PTA1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 68, unchanged; the PTA East China spot price was 4955 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the PTA processing fee was 150.47, down 28.15 [2] 3.3 MEG - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the MEG futures closing price was 3623, down 112 (- 3.00%); the MEG1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 119, up 2; the MEG spot price was 3522, down 93 [2] 3.4 Polyester - **Production Cuts**: Some major Chinese polyester producers may consider reducing the production of some products. It is reported that three major polyester filament manufacturers will implement a 10% increase in POY production cuts on Wednesday this week, and continue the previous 15% FDY production cuts [5]

【现货方面】 12月9日，PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。个别聚酯工厂集中补货。12月 货在01-25~28有成交，12月底个别略高在01-20~22附近，价格商谈区间在4610~4650。主流现货基差在 01-26。 【利润方面】 【行情展望】 12月PTA装置检修仍较集中，且聚酯开工在内外需支撑下降负预期延后，叠加印度BIS认证取消后， PTA出口预期增加，PTA供需预期好转，PTA基差阶段性修复。平衡表来看，12月PTA供需预期偏紧， 不过1季度PTA供需预期整体偏宽松，预计PTA基差修复空间有限。绝对价格来看，中期PTA供需预期偏 弱且油价支撑偏弱，PTA绝对价格偏弱震荡。策略上，TA短期或在4500-4800区间震荡；TA5-9低位正 套。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规 ...

【现货方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 供应：截止11月21日，PTA负荷下调至71%（-4.7%）。 需求：截至11月21日，聚酯负荷有所提升至91.3%附近（+1%）。11月24日，涤丝价格重心局部上调， 产销整体偏弱。印度BIS认证限制逐步撤销，印度客户询价增加，FDY细旦丝外销放量，价格上涨。目 前工厂库存较低但下游销量有所下滑，涤丝价格以稳定为主。后期继续关注下游销量和印度BIS认证情 况。 【行情展望】 随着华东2套PTA装置检修落地，且聚酯开工在内需支撑下降负预期延后，叠加印度BIS认证取消后， PTA出口有望增加，PTA供需预期明显修复，PTA基差阶段性修复。平衡表来看，11-12月PTA供需预期 偏紧；不过12月至1季度PTA供需预期整体偏宽松。绝对价格来看，近 ...

Market Overview - On November 18, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation. The spot basis strengthened slightly, with limited offers from polyester factories. Transactions for November were reported at a discount of 70-72 for January contracts, with some lower at 75, and the price negotiation range was around 4580-4645 [1] - For December, transactions were noted at a discount of 65 for early December and 55-58 for late December, while November warehouse receipts were traded around 50 [1] Profitability - As of November 18, the PTA spot processing fee was approximately 186 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601 and TA2603 contracts were 237 yuan/ton and 262 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of November 14, PTA operating rates were at 75.7%, a decrease of 0.7%. A 2.5 million ton PTA facility in East China was scheduled for maintenance for about a week, and another 2.2 million ton PTA unit in Ningbo was planned for maintenance on November 20 [3] - Demand: By November 14, several bottle chip and filament facilities were under maintenance, leading to a decrease in polyester operating rates to approximately 90.3%, down by 1%. On November 18, the price of polyester filament showed minor adjustments, with overall sales being weak. The gradual lifting of BIS certification restrictions in India has led to increased inquiries from Indian customers, boosting exports of FDY fine denier yarn and resulting in price increases. Current factory inventories are low, and as the peak season comes to an end, short-term prices are expected to remain stable with limited downside [3] Market Outlook - This week, with two PTA facilities in East China undergoing maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. The supply-demand balance for PTA in November is tight, but expectations for December and the first quarter of next year lean towards a more relaxed supply-demand situation, limiting upward pressure on the basis. Absolute prices are currently supported by demand for adjusted oil and the cancellation of BIS certification in India, although recent speculative trading in oil has cooled down, and the actual impact of the BIS certification cancellation on exports remains to be seen. Coupled with limited overall support from oil prices, the rebound potential for PTA remains constrained. The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate within the 4500-4800 range in the short term, with a rolling reverse spread approach [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting among PTA and bottle chip industry leaders is seen as a crucial step to mitigate "involution" competition and promote stable industry operations amid supply-demand mismatches and low profits [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The polyester industry is currently in a phase of concentrated capacity investment, with poor profitability reported across the sector [1] - PTA's average operating load is below 80% this year, with spot processing margins dropping to as low as 100 yuan/ton, significantly below normal processing cost levels [1] - The bottle chip industry is also struggling, with average spot processing margins around 400 yuan/ton, dipping below 300 yuan/ton at times, leading to cash flow losses for companies [1] Group 2: Capacity and Utilization - Despite low processing fees, significant capacity clearance in the PTA and bottle chip sectors is unlikely in the short term due to the relatively recent investment in capacity [2] - Current capacity utilization in the polyester industry is better than the previous downturn cycle (2014-2015), and remains among the highest compared to other domestic industrial products [2] Group 3: Industry Response - The polyester industry, particularly the bottle chip sector, has begun to implement "anti-involution" measures, including increasing maintenance frequency and duration, as well as coordinated production cuts among suppliers [2] - The processing margin for bottle chips has improved, reaching a peak of over 550 yuan/ton in mid-October, attributed to industry self-discipline and profit recovery [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Recent strength in the polyester sector, including rapid rebounds in PX and PTA futures, is driven by cost support from rising oil prices, increased demand for pre-holiday stocking, and positive market expectations following the industry meeting [3] - However, there are concerns about potential declines in textile and apparel production loads in November, which may limit the recovery of polyester processing margins [3] - Future improvements in the polyester industry are expected as capacity investment slows and consumption rebounds, but achieving good profitability will take time [3][4]

Group 1 - Ethylene glycol prices have been under pressure due to multiple negative factors including a slowdown in coal price increases, a significant drop in crude oil prices, and insufficient downstream demand, leading to a decline in prices approaching the low points of the first half of the year [1] - Since late October, there has been a marginal improvement in terminal orders, which has driven polyester destocking, alongside a rebound in crude oil and coal prices, indicating a potential bottoming out of ethylene glycol prices [1][4] - The new expansion cycle for ethylene glycol is beginning, which is expected to increase supply pressure and may limit the rebound potential of prices [5] Group 2 - The production processes for ethylene glycol are primarily based on petroleum and coal, which together account for over 80% of domestic production capacity, making the price trends of crude oil and coal significantly impactful on ethylene glycol prices [2] - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased sanctions against Russia have led to a strong rebound in international oil prices, with significant implications for the global oil supply [2] - Coal prices have also strengthened due to production limitations in major coal-producing regions and increased demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, which has supported coal price increases [3] Group 3 - Since mid-October, the rebound in energy prices has boosted market confidence, leading to an increase in weaving enterprises' new order indices and overall operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces [4] - The average operating rate for polyester is expected to remain at 91.5% in October and increase to 90.5% in November, which is significantly better than previous market expectations [4] - The ethylene glycol market is facing long-term supply pressure due to new production capacities coming online, with an estimated 1 million tons of new capacity expected to be added in the next three years [5][6] Group 4 - Ethylene glycol production profits are currently at a relatively high level due to lower raw material costs and improvements in production efficiency, which have led to increased production rates [6] - Domestic coal-based ethylene glycol operating rates have risen significantly, indicating a recovery in production activity [6] - The import supply of ethylene glycol remains ample, with expectations of high import volumes in the fourth quarter, contributing to a continued loose supply environment [7]