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PTA:供需预期转弱但低加工费下成本支撑偏强
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-10 02:23
【现货方面】 7月9日,PTA期货小幅收涨,现货市场商谈一般,贸易商商为主,个别聚酯工厂有递盘,现货基差快速 走弱后企稳。本周及下周货在09+20~45有成交,个别略高在09+60有成交,价格商谈区间在4720~4770 附近。7月底在09+15~40有成交,夜盘在09+50于有成交。主流现货基差在09+36。 【成本方面】 7月9日,PTA现货加工费至159元/吨附近,TA2509盘面加工费314元/吨。 供应:上周PTA负荷升至78.2%(+0.5%)。 需求:上周聚酯综合负荷继续下滑至90.2%(-1.2%)附近。7月9日,涤丝价格重心局部下调,产销整体 偏弱。近期丝价持续回落,且目前处于淡季以及天气较热,销售会较为平淡,开工率下滑,坯布库存有 所上升。后期丝价较大概率继续下行为主,长丝工厂库存继续增加。近期需关注长丝企业减产和长丝价 格重心调整情况。 【行情展望】 7月PTA装置检修力度一般,且三房巷(600370)PTA装置有投产预期,下游聚酯工厂7月减产预期较强 以及终端需求持续偏弱,PTA供需预期转弱,近期PTA基差进一步走弱。绝对价格上,油价短期走势偏 强,以及原料PX供需预期偏紧,叠加PTA ...
PTA:供需预期转弱但成本端偏强 PTA僵持震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-08 02:26
Market Overview - On July 7, PTA futures showed a weak fluctuation, with a quiet spot market and weak basis, primarily driven by traders' negotiations, with sporadic offers from polyester factories [1] - The mainstream spot basis was reported at 09+103, with transaction prices ranging from 4790 to 4830 RMB/ton [1] Cost Analysis - As of July 7, the PTA spot processing fee was around 265 RMB/ton, while the TA2509 contract processing fee was 332 RMB/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, Yisheng New Materials increased its load to 3.6 million tons, Hengli restarted 2.2 million tons, and Weilian Chemical had 2.5 million tons offline, resulting in PTA load rising to 78.2% (+0.5%) [3] - Demand: Some polyester facilities were under maintenance, while others increased their load, leading to a decline in polyester's overall load to 90.2% (-1.2%). On July 7, the price of polyester filament decreased by 50-150 RMB, indicating weak overall sales [3] - The current market is in the off-season with rising fabric inventory, and there is a high probability of continued downward pressure on filament prices [3] Price Outlook - The repair intensity of PTA facilities in July is moderate, and with new PTA facilities operating stably, there are expectations of reduced production in downstream polyester factories and continued weak terminal demand, leading to a bearish supply-demand outlook for PTA [4] - Despite short-term support from strong oil prices and tight PX supply-demand expectations, the absolute price rebound for PTA remains limited due to accelerating negative feedback from the terminal [4] - The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate in the range of 4600-4900, with a bearish bias at the upper end [4]
PTA:供需预期转弱且油价支撑有限 短期PTA跟随原料震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-02 02:10
【现货方面】 7月1日,PTA期货跌后反弹,现货市场商谈氛围较清淡,递盘稀少,现货基差快速走弱。本周及下周货 在09+160~200附近商谈成交,价格商谈区间在4930~5020附近。7月中下在09+160有成交。主流现货基 差在09+175。 【成本方面】 7月1日,PTA现货加工费至330元/吨附近,TA2509盘面加工费350元/吨。 【供需方面】 供应:上周逸盛新材料360万吨降负运行,PTA负荷降至77.7%(-1.4%)。 需求:上周聚酯负荷小幅下降至91.2%附近(-0.8%)。7月1日,涤丝价格重心零星下调50-100,产销整 体清淡。虽然油价回落后,长丝工厂有进行促销,但是促销效果并不明显,且本次价格依然显著高于上 次同样油价时候的丝价。目前处于淡季以及天气较热,销售会较为平淡,开工率下滑,坯布库存有所上 升。后期丝价较大概率下行为主。近期需关注长丝企业减产和长丝价格重心调整情况。 【行情展望】 尽管福海创和恒力装置检修兑现,不过因PTA新装置稳定运行,下游聚酯工厂7月存减产预期以及终端 需求偏弱,PTA供需预期转弱,近两日基差明显走弱。叠加油价支撑有限,短期PTA反弹承压,但绝对 价格仍受 ...
PTA:供需预期转弱且油价支撑有限 短期PTA震荡调整
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-27 02:03
Market Overview - On June 26, PTA futures experienced fluctuations, with the spot market showing general negotiations and a weakening basis. The trading range for this week and next week is between 09+255 to 265, with some transactions slightly lower, and the price negotiation range is around 4990 to 5050 [1] - The main spot basis is at 09+259 [1] Cost Analysis - As of June 26, the PTA spot processing fee is approximately 408 yuan/ton, while the TA2509 market processing fee is 367 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: This week, Yisheng New Materials reduced its operating load to 360,000 tons, resulting in PTA load dropping to 77.7% (-1.4%) by Thursday [3] - Demand: A nearby unit is undergoing maintenance, and a bottle chip factory is implementing production cuts, leading to a slight decrease in polyester load to around 91.2% (-0.8%). The operating rates for weaving, knitting, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have slightly adjusted, with rates at 76% (-1%), 66% (+1%), and 67% (-1%) respectively. Orders in the grey fabric sector have shown slight improvement, particularly in the Haining area, although feedback from other regions remains relatively weak. Concerns over escalating Middle East tensions have led to some replenishment in downstream polyester filament, but after the reduction of oil prices due to the dissipating geopolitical factors, raw material prices have fallen, leading to discounts in filament prices. Currently, downstream raw material inventory is primarily at 7-15 days, with sporadic high inventory levels at 20-30 days [3] Market Outlook - Despite maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli facilities, the expectation for PTA supply and demand is weakening due to the commissioning of new facilities, limited future maintenance plans, and continuous signals of production cuts from downstream polyester factories. The overall demand remains weak, leading to a sustained decline in terminal load. The limited driving force from oil prices suggests that PTA will experience limited upward momentum in the short term, with fluctuations expected to remain within the 4600-4900 range. A cautious approach is recommended for TA trading strategies [4]
PTA:地缘溢价回落油价大跌 短期PTA或受拖累
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-24 03:18
【供需方面】 【现货方面】 6月23日,PTA期货跌后反弹,现货市场商谈氛围一般,现货报盘略有增加,基差松动,贸易商商谈为 主,少量聚酯工厂递盘。主流供应商出远期货源。6月货主流在09+260~270成交,个别略高,价格商谈 区间在5220~5300附近。7月商谈不多,7月中上在09+260~270有成交。主流现货基差在09+264。 【成本方面】 6月23日,PTA现货加工费至398元/吨附近,TA2509盘面加工费344元/吨。 【行情展望】 供应:上周PTA负荷降至79.1%%(-3.9%)。 需求:上周周一套装置例行检修,两套装置检修重启,聚酯综合负荷有所上调至92%(+1.1%)附近。6 月23日,涤丝价格重心涨50-100,产销周末尚可,周一偏弱。受美国参与伊以战争影响,周日产销放 量,但周一开盘聚酯原料涨后回落,产销又有所下滑。涤丝工厂库存尚可,但下游需求端偏弱,终端印 染,织造端累库。受到销量不足的压制,涤丝的价格涨幅不及熔体成本,加工差被压缩,FDY处于全线 亏损。短期来看,丝价还是跟着原油波动,但是幅度会小于原油。近期内仍需关注油价变动和伊以冲突 的情况。 尽管福海创和恒力装置检修兑现,不 ...
对二甲苯:海内外供应偏紧,趋势走强,月差正套,PTA:成本支撑,基差月差正套,MEG:伊朗多套装置停车,短期偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:57
MEG:伊朗多套装置停车,短期偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 20 日 对二甲苯:海内外供应偏紧,趋势走强,月差正套 PTA:成本支撑,基差月差正套 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-19 | 7094 | 4988 | 4539 | 6794 | 3998 | | 2025-06-18 | 6988 | 4914 | 4471 | 6686 | 3921 | | 2025-06-17 | 6776 | 4782 | 4400 | 6546 | 3806 | | 2025-06-16 | 6758 | 4766 | 4374 | 6510 | 3874 | | 2025-06-13 | 6780 | 4782 | 4334 | 6530 | 3829 | | 日度变 ...
PTA:供需逐步转弱但成本端偏强 PTA略偏强震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-18 02:01
【现货方面】 6月17日,PTA期货震荡收涨,现货市场商谈氛围尚可,现货基差快速走强,个别聚酯工厂有递盘。个 别主流供应商出货,6月货在09+250~280有成交,个别略高,价格商谈区间在4965~5050附近,夜盘价 格偏低端。7月货在09+210~270有成交。8月在09+100~115。主流现货基差在09+268。 【成本方面】 6月17日,PTA现货加工费至232元/吨附近,TA2509盘面加工费344元/吨。 【供需方面】 【行情展望】 近期PTA供应增加明显,且下游聚酯大厂减产预期进一步扩大,PTA供需边际转弱。短期受在现货流通 仍偏紧格局下,基差较为坚挺,但供需转弱预期下基差存回落预期。不过值得关注的是,后期PTA装置 检修计划不多以及新装置投产预期,将使得PX需求支撑偏强,PX供需偏紧格局下价格仍有支撑,叠加 近期地缘扰动下油价重心偏强震荡,预计PTA短期支撑偏强,关注下游聚酯减产幅度及PTA装置检修情 况。策略上,TA短多对待,关注5000附近压力;TA9-1逢高反套为主。 免责声明:本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何 ...
市场传PX装置降负,PX、PTA期货夜盘大幅走高!
news flash· 2025-06-18 01:01
昨日市场传PX装置降负,叠加油价强势,PX及产业链下游相关产品大涨,夜盘延续涨势,基差和月差 同步走强。PX和PTA周度负荷同步提升,但上周长丝产销大幅放量,企业去库后,预期涤丝开工维 持,7月瓶片将成为减产主力。如果原料持续拉涨,聚酯或再度通过降负应对,短期市场偏强,潜在利 空也在积聚,中期有回落风险。(国投期货) ...
油价日内飙升13%,涤纶长丝产销高达1300%,极端行情还能持续多久?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-14 03:31
Group 1 - Brent crude oil experienced its largest daily increase since 2022, with a surge of 11.3%, reaching $78.5 per barrel, while WTI crude peaked at $74.63 per barrel [2][3] - Iran's oil production stands at 3.3 million barrels per day, with exports between 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 4% of global production [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to impact oil exports, potentially leading to sustained high oil prices [7][8] Group 2 - Experts recommend a cautious approach to trading, advising against short positions while awaiting the outcome of negotiations [10] - The polyester market is responding to rising oil prices, with significant price increases observed in various polyester products, indicating a strong market demand despite concerns from downstream buyers [10][11] - The average transaction prices for key materials have shown notable increases, with PX rising by 36 to $854 and PTA rising by 155 to $5010 [15]
PTA:供需逐步转弱但成本端偏强 PTA僵持震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-12 02:12
【供需方面】 供应:目前PTA负荷提升至84%附近。近期逸盛大化225和独山能源300万吨PTA装置陆续重启,嘉兴石 化150万吨装置停车。 【现货方面】 6月10日,PTA期货冲高回落,现货市场商谈氛围尚可,现货基差偏强。少量聚酯工厂补货,本周下周 主港在09升水215~225成交,个别偏高,价格商谈区间在4800~4910附近。6月底主港在09升水210~215 有成交。主流现货基差在09+217。 【成本方面】 6月10日,PTA现货加工费至424元/吨附近,TA2509盘面加工费353元/吨。 需求:上周江浙涤丝大工厂减产继续,但有荣盛和盛虹装置重启补充,叠加瓶片装置有检修或故障停 车,以及部分短纤装置减产,聚酯负荷综合下降至91.1%(-0.6%)。6月10日,涤丝价格涨50-100,前 一日尾盘产销有所放量,尾盘高低分化。三大厂优惠有所缩小,宁波方向价格不变,销售放量。长丝二 轮减产结束之下,现做现卖利润依旧处于亏损状态,后有第三轮减产方案。面对供给端和需求端双弱情 况,恐后期涤丝加工差会被进一步压缩。近期内仍需关注油价变动和涤丝工厂减产的最新进程。 【行情展望】 近期PTA负荷提升明显,叠加华东 ...