【现货方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 供应：截止11月21日，PTA负荷下调至71%（-4.7%）。 需求：截至11月21日，聚酯负荷有所提升至91.3%附近（+1%）。11月24日，涤丝价格重心局部上调， 产销整体偏弱。印度BIS认证限制逐步撤销，印度客户询价增加，FDY细旦丝外销放量，价格上涨。目 前工厂库存较低但下游销量有所下滑，涤丝价格以稳定为主。后期继续关注下游销量和印度BIS认证情 况。 【行情展望】 随着华东2套PTA装置检修落地，且聚酯开工在内需支撑下降负预期延后，叠加印度BIS认证取消后， PTA出口有望增加，PTA供需预期明显修复，PTA基差阶段性修复。平衡表来看，11-12月PTA供需预期 偏紧；不过12月至1季度PTA供需预期整体偏宽松。绝对价格来看，近 ...

【现货方面】 11月18日，PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，少量聚酯工厂递盘。个别主 流供应商出货。11月在01贴水70~72附近商谈成交，个别略低在01-75有成交，价格商谈区间在 4580~4645附近。12月上在01-65附近有成交，12月下在01-55~58有成交。11月仓单在01-50附近有成 交。主流现货基差在01-72。 【利润方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 需求：截至11月14日，有几套瓶片和长丝装置检修，聚酯负荷降至90.3%附近（-1%）。11月18日，涤 丝价格重心零星调整，产销整体偏弱。印度BIS认证限制逐步撤销，印度客户询价增加，FDY细旦丝外 销放量，价格上涨。目前工厂库存较低且位于旺季收尾阶段，短期价格依然易涨难跌。后期继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting among PTA and bottle chip industry leaders is seen as a crucial step to mitigate "involution" competition and promote stable industry operations amid supply-demand mismatches and low profits [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The polyester industry is currently in a phase of concentrated capacity investment, with poor profitability reported across the sector [1] - PTA's average operating load is below 80% this year, with spot processing margins dropping to as low as 100 yuan/ton, significantly below normal processing cost levels [1] - The bottle chip industry is also struggling, with average spot processing margins around 400 yuan/ton, dipping below 300 yuan/ton at times, leading to cash flow losses for companies [1] Group 2: Capacity and Utilization - Despite low processing fees, significant capacity clearance in the PTA and bottle chip sectors is unlikely in the short term due to the relatively recent investment in capacity [2] - Current capacity utilization in the polyester industry is better than the previous downturn cycle (2014-2015), and remains among the highest compared to other domestic industrial products [2] Group 3: Industry Response - The polyester industry, particularly the bottle chip sector, has begun to implement "anti-involution" measures, including increasing maintenance frequency and duration, as well as coordinated production cuts among suppliers [2] - The processing margin for bottle chips has improved, reaching a peak of over 550 yuan/ton in mid-October, attributed to industry self-discipline and profit recovery [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Recent strength in the polyester sector, including rapid rebounds in PX and PTA futures, is driven by cost support from rising oil prices, increased demand for pre-holiday stocking, and positive market expectations following the industry meeting [3] - However, there are concerns about potential declines in textile and apparel production loads in November, which may limit the recovery of polyester processing margins [3] - Future improvements in the polyester industry are expected as capacity investment slows and consumption rebounds, but achieving good profitability will take time [3][4]

Group 1 - Ethylene glycol prices have been under pressure due to multiple negative factors including a slowdown in coal price increases, a significant drop in crude oil prices, and insufficient downstream demand, leading to a decline in prices approaching the low points of the first half of the year [1] - Since late October, there has been a marginal improvement in terminal orders, which has driven polyester destocking, alongside a rebound in crude oil and coal prices, indicating a potential bottoming out of ethylene glycol prices [1][4] - The new expansion cycle for ethylene glycol is beginning, which is expected to increase supply pressure and may limit the rebound potential of prices [5] Group 2 - The production processes for ethylene glycol are primarily based on petroleum and coal, which together account for over 80% of domestic production capacity, making the price trends of crude oil and coal significantly impactful on ethylene glycol prices [2] - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased sanctions against Russia have led to a strong rebound in international oil prices, with significant implications for the global oil supply [2] - Coal prices have also strengthened due to production limitations in major coal-producing regions and increased demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, which has supported coal price increases [3] Group 3 - Since mid-October, the rebound in energy prices has boosted market confidence, leading to an increase in weaving enterprises' new order indices and overall operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces [4] - The average operating rate for polyester is expected to remain at 91.5% in October and increase to 90.5% in November, which is significantly better than previous market expectations [4] - The ethylene glycol market is facing long-term supply pressure due to new production capacities coming online, with an estimated 1 million tons of new capacity expected to be added in the next three years [5][6] Group 4 - Ethylene glycol production profits are currently at a relatively high level due to lower raw material costs and improvements in production efficiency, which have led to increased production rates [6] - Domestic coal-based ethylene glycol operating rates have risen significantly, indicating a recovery in production activity [6] - The import supply of ethylene glycol remains ample, with expectations of high import volumes in the fourth quarter, contributing to a continued loose supply environment [7]

Market Overview - On October 27, PTA futures surged significantly after news from an industry seminar, with the spot market showing a general trading atmosphere and spot basis stabilizing. This week, transactions occurred at a discount of 80-82 for the January contract, with price discussions ranging between 4440-4565 [1] - The main spot basis is at 01-81 [1] Profitability - As of October 27, the PTA spot processing fee is around 112 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 contracts are 259 CNY/ton and 276 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 24, PTA operating rates reached 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. A new 3 million ton PTA facility in East China began production last weekend and has started output [3] - Demand: As of October 24, polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 27, the price of polyester filament saw slight increases, with overall production and sales being weak over the weekend but acceptable on Monday. The terminal sales atmosphere is relatively good, and after last week's downstream restocking, filament factory inventories are at a relatively low level, indicating potential price support. News of PTA's anti-internal competition has driven raw material prices, leading to some downstream replenishment, with expectations that filament prices may rise [3] Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA facility operating rates and the commissioning of new facilities, the overall spot basis for PTA is weak. Despite continuous compression of PTA processing fees and a significant boost in futures prices due to industry seminar news, the rebound potential for PTA is limited until substantial policies are implemented and given the weak supply-demand expectations for crude oil [4] - The strategy suggests monitoring pressure above 4600 for long positions and considering reducing positions on rallies; a rolling hedge strategy is recommended for TA1-5 [4]

Market Overview - On October 22, PTA futures experienced a slight upward trend, with a general atmosphere of negotiation in the spot market. The spot basis remained weak, and some mainstream suppliers were making sales, while trading discussions were the main focus, resulting in acceptable transaction volumes. October cargo was traded at a discount of 85-90, with price negotiations around 4340-4400. For November, transaction volumes increased, with trades at a discount of -80 and -70 for the first and second halves, respectively. The mainstream spot basis was at -88 [1]. Profitability - As of October 22, the PTA spot processing fee was around 95 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures were 235 yuan/ton and 257 yuan/ton, respectively [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, PTA operating rates were at 76%, an increase of 0.6%. - Demand: Polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 22, the price of polyester yarn showed mixed trends, with sales volume increasing towards the end of the day. Raw material prices rose, but yarn prices saw limited increases, with some downstream sectors replenishing stock. Currently, POY has some profitability, while FDY remains at a loss. The arrival of cold air has supported the "Silver October" sales, with winter clothing sales starting. Future attention will be on raw material trends [3]. Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA plant operating rates and the imminent production of new facilities, the PTA spot basis is expected to continue weakening. However, as the basis approaches a no-risk arbitrage level and some mainstream PTA suppliers reduce their operating rates, the downward space for the basis is limited. In terms of absolute prices, short-term PTA may be supported by the rebound in oil prices and improved supply-demand expectations for raw material PX. The strategy suggests a low-level short position and a rolling reverse spread for TA1-5 [4].

Market Overview - On October 21, PTA futures experienced fluctuations, with a general atmosphere in the spot market being average and the spot basis being weak. Transactions for October cargo were made at a discount of 85-90, with price negotiations ranging from 4290 to 4355. November cargo saw transactions at a discount of 80 for early November, 75 for mid-November, and 70 for late November. The mainstream spot basis was at 88 [1] Profitability - As of October 21, the PTA spot processing fee was around 122 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures were 245 CNY/ton and 267 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, PTA operating rates were at 76%, an increase of 0.6%. - Demand: Polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 21, the price of polyester yarn saw localized declines, with production and sales increasing in some areas. Factories were promoting sales, and the situation at the end of the trading day should be monitored. The downstream knitting sector was performing adequately, with some downstream players purchasing raw materials as needed. Currently, POY has some profit, while FDY fine denier remains at a loss. With factory inventories continuing to rise, polyester yarn prices are expected to follow raw material prices downward [3] Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA plant operating rates and the imminent commissioning of new facilities, the PTA spot basis is expected to continue weakening. However, as the basis approaches a no-risk arbitrage level and some major PTA suppliers reduce their operating rates, the downward space for the basis is limited. In terms of absolute prices, the weak supply and demand expectations for crude oil limit price drivers, along with fluctuating tariff policies, leading to a short-term outlook of limited upward momentum for PTA, primarily characterized by weak fluctuations. The strategy is to remain observant, focusing on Brent crude oil support around 60 USD/barrel, and to treat TA1-5 rolling reverse spreads accordingly [4]

Market Overview - On October 20, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a downward trend, with a general atmosphere in the spot market being average. The trading range for spot prices expanded, primarily driven by traders, with sporadic offers from polyester factories. October cargo was traded at a discount of 80-90, with prices in the range of 4295-4340. November cargo was traded at a discount of 70, and late November at a discount of 65. Warehouse receipts were traded around a discount of 50, with the mainstream spot basis at a discount of 85 [1]. Profitability - As of October 20, the PTA spot processing fee was around 120 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures were 253 yuan/ton and 278 yuan/ton, respectively [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, PTA operating rates were at 76%, an increase of 0.6%. - Demand: Polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 20, the price of polyester filament saw a slight decline, with overall production and sales being average. The significant drop in oil prices was influenced by Trump's tariff policies, leading some filament factories to lower prices or increase discounts. Downstream knitting operations were performing reasonably well, with some downstream buyers purchasing raw materials as needed. Currently, POY has some profitability, while FDY fine denier remains at a loss. With factory inventories continuing to rise, filament prices are expected to follow the downward trend of raw materials [3]. Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA plant operating rates and news of new installations coming online, the PTA spot basis has weakened significantly. However, as the basis approaches a no-risk arbitrage level and some major PTA suppliers reduce their operating rates, the downward space for the basis is limited. In terms of absolute prices, the weak supply and demand expectations for crude oil limit price drivers, along with the negative impact of fluctuating tariff policies. Therefore, short-term PTA price movements are expected to remain weak and fluctuate. The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach, with attention on Brent crude oil support around 60 USD/barrel; a rolling reverse spread strategy is recommended [4].

Supply and Demand - As of August 29, PTA operating rate is at 70.4%, a decrease of 2.5% [3] - As of August 29, polyester operating rate has increased to 90.3%, an increase of 0.3% [3] - Downstream polyester production has seen a decline due to lack of orders and high temperatures, with inventory levels being acceptable but overall stock being high [3] Price and Profitability - On September 1, PTA spot processing fee is around 170 CNY/ton, while TA2511 and TA2601 futures processing fees are 317 CNY/ton and 313 CNY/ton respectively [2] - The main spot trading range is between 4710 and 4735 CNY, with some transactions at a basis of 40 to 48 [1] Market Outlook - The low processing margin has led to increased unplanned maintenance of PTA facilities in August and September, improving supply-demand expectations, although the execution of maintenance is not meeting expectations [4] - There is still a demand expectation for September and October, with polyester and terminal loads recovering compared to previous periods, providing some support to demand [4] - Short-term strategies suggest focusing on support around 4700 CNY, with a short-term bullish outlook [4]

Report Investment Rating - PX: Long PX short EB, 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short [7] - PTA: Long PTA short MEG, long PTA 11 - contract short PX [8] - MEG: Long PTA short MEG, 09 - 01 calendar spread long, avoid chasing long positions above 4550 [9] Core Viewpoints - The PX market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with prices having a short - term pullback. The PTA price is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, while the MEG price is in a sideways market [7][8][9] Market Data Summary Futures - PX主力合约昨日收盘价6878，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.12%；月差PX9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 108，较前日跌156 [1] - PTA主力合约昨日收盘价4784，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.17%；月差PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 62，较前日跌6 [1] - MEG主力合约昨日收盘价4466，涨跌1，涨跌幅0.02%；月差MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 37，较前日涨4 [1] Spot - PX CFR中国昨日价格848.67美元/吨，较前日持平 [1] - PTA华东昨日价格4740元/吨，较前日跌35 [1] - MEG现货昨日价格4534元/吨，较前日涨9 [1] Processing Margin - PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格254.79，较前日跌9 [1] - PTA加工费昨日价格221.67，较前日跌29.59 [1] Market Dynamics Summary - PX现货价格因缺乏多空驱动因素保持不变，看跌的原油情绪限制亚洲PX价格涨幅，且美国关税政策引发消费者价格通胀担忧 [1][2] - 9月初聚酯装置有开停变化，江浙涤丝29号产销整体偏弱，直纺涤短销售一般 [5][6] Trend Intensity - PX趋势强度为1，PTA趋势强度为1，MEG趋势强度为0 [6] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - 亚洲其他地区对二甲苯开工率75.6%（ - 0.7%），国产PX装置开工率83.3%（ - 1.3%），9月福佳大化70计划检修，福化集团160计划重启，供应边际回升 [7] PTA - PTA负荷70.4%（ - 1.2%），恒力惠州装置意外停车后转为去库格局，但工厂套保盘压制盘面，基差回落，聚酯开工90.3%（ + 0.3%） [8] MEG - MEG装置开工率75.1%（ + 2%），港口转为累库格局，供应端负荷整体处于高位，进口到港预计回升，需求端聚酯装置负荷维持在90.3%（ + 0.3%），9月聚酯开工预期下调 [9]