Market Overview - On October 21, PTA futures experienced fluctuations, with a general atmosphere in the spot market being average and the spot basis being weak. Transactions for October cargo were made at a discount of 85-90, with price negotiations ranging from 4290 to 4355. November cargo saw transactions at a discount of 80 for early November, 75 for mid-November, and 70 for late November. The mainstream spot basis was at 88 [1] Profitability - As of October 21, the PTA spot processing fee was around 122 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures were 245 CNY/ton and 267 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, PTA operating rates were at 76%, an increase of 0.6%. - Demand: Polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 21, the price of polyester yarn saw localized declines, with production and sales increasing in some areas. Factories were promoting sales, and the situation at the end of the trading day should be monitored. The downstream knitting sector was performing adequately, with some downstream players purchasing raw materials as needed. Currently, POY has some profit, while FDY fine denier remains at a loss. With factory inventories continuing to rise, polyester yarn prices are expected to follow raw material prices downward [3] Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA plant operating rates and the imminent commissioning of new facilities, the PTA spot basis is expected to continue weakening. However, as the basis approaches a no-risk arbitrage level and some major PTA suppliers reduce their operating rates, the downward space for the basis is limited. In terms of absolute prices, the weak supply and demand expectations for crude oil limit price drivers, along with fluctuating tariff policies, leading to a short-term outlook of limited upward momentum for PTA, primarily characterized by weak fluctuations. The strategy is to remain observant, focusing on Brent crude oil support around 60 USD/barrel, and to treat TA1-5 rolling reverse spreads accordingly [4]

Market Overview - On October 13, the PTA futures market experienced slight fluctuations with a minor decline, while the spot market showed weak trading sentiment and a weakening basis [1] - The market is anticipating the commissioning of a new 3 million-ton PTA facility by Dushan Energy in October, although the exact timeline remains uncertain [1] Profitability - As of October 13, the PTA spot processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton, with processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures at 280 yuan/ton and 298 yuan/ton respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 10, Yisheng New Materials has reduced production, and Hengli has halted 2.2 million tons, leading to a PTA operating rate of 75.4%, a decrease of 1.4% [3] - Demand: The polyester operating rate has slightly increased to 91.4%, up by 1.1%. The operating rates for various segments are as follows: texturing at 81% (no change), weaving at 69% (down by 1%), and dyeing at 78% (up by 2%) [3] - The weaving sector shows a mixed atmosphere, with knitting experiencing a structural peak while woven spraying remains sluggish, leading to rising local inventories [3] Market Outlook - Due to persistently low PTA processing fees and expectations of multiple PTA maintenance schedules, the market outlook remains cautious. Despite high downstream operating levels, the weak supply-demand balance limits basis recovery [4] - Absolute prices are expected to remain under pressure due to weak oil supply-demand expectations and fluctuating tariff policies, suggesting a potential short-term decline in PTA prices [4] - The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for TA, with a focus on potential short-selling opportunities [4]

Market Overview - On August 6, the market was boosted by the news of INEOS reducing production, alongside a recovery in commodity sentiment, leading to a rapid increase in PTA futures prices, which ultimately closed with gains [1] - The trading atmosphere in the spot market was relatively positive, with a weak basis for spot prices and limited offers from polyester factories [1] Pricing and Supply - Main suppliers offered August cargoes, with transactions for early August at a discount of 20-25 against September futures, and later in August at a discount of 15-20, with price discussions around 4650-4720 [1] - As of August 1, PTA operating rates decreased to 72.6%, down by 7.3%, while polyester operating rates slightly fell to 88.1%, down by 0.6% [3] Profitability - As of August 6, the PTA spot processing fee was around 130 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 274 yuan/ton [2] Demand and Inventory - On August 6, the price of polyester staple fiber remained stable, with local sales volume increasing, and current inventory levels at fiber factories were manageable [3] - The terminal operating rates are expected to remain steady as the market awaits the peak season in September and October [3] Future Outlook - Despite a better-than-expected supply-demand situation for PTA in August, the market outlook remains weak due to the upcoming commissioning of new PTA facilities and continued weak demand for new orders [4] - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market has improved, providing some short-term support, but the PTA market is expected to face downward pressure from weak supply-demand expectations and recent declines in oil prices [4] - Short-term price range for PTA is anticipated to be between 4600-4800, with low processing fees suggesting potential for expansion [4]

Market Overview - On July 9, PTA futures experienced a slight increase, with the spot market showing general trading activity primarily driven by traders, while some polyester factories made offers. The spot basis quickly weakened but stabilized afterward, with transactions occurring in the range of 4720 to 4770, and some higher at 09+60. The mainstream spot basis was at 09+36 [1] Cost Analysis - As of July 9, the PTA spot processing fee was around 159 yuan/ton, while the TA2509 market processing fee was 314 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, PTA operating rates rose to 78.2%, an increase of 0.5% - Demand: The polyester comprehensive operating rate continued to decline to 90.2%, a decrease of 1.2%. On July 9, the price of polyester filament saw a localized decrease, with overall sales remaining weak. The recent decline in filament prices, coupled with the off-season and hot weather, has led to subdued sales and an increase in fabric inventory. There is a high probability that filament prices will continue to trend downward, with filament factory inventories increasing. Attention should be paid to the production cuts by filament enterprises and adjustments in filament price levels [3] Market Outlook - In July, the maintenance of PTA facilities is moderate, and there is an expectation for the commissioning of the PTA facility at Sanfangxiang (600370). There is a strong expectation of production cuts in downstream polyester factories and continued weak terminal demand, leading to a weakening of PTA supply and demand expectations. The PTA basis has further weakened recently. In terms of absolute prices, short-term oil prices are expected to trend strong, and the supply-demand outlook for raw material PX is tight, combined with PTA processing fees compressed to very low levels, providing strong short-term cost support for PTA. However, with signs of accelerated negative feedback at the terminal, the rebound in PTA absolute prices remains limited. The strategy suggests that TA will oscillate in the range of 4600-4900, with a short position favored below 4700; the focus will be on rolling short positions in TA9-1 [4]

Market Overview - On July 7, PTA futures showed a weak fluctuation, with a quiet spot market and weak basis, primarily driven by traders' negotiations, with sporadic offers from polyester factories [1] - The mainstream spot basis was reported at 09+103, with transaction prices ranging from 4790 to 4830 RMB/ton [1] Cost Analysis - As of July 7, the PTA spot processing fee was around 265 RMB/ton, while the TA2509 contract processing fee was 332 RMB/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, Yisheng New Materials increased its load to 3.6 million tons, Hengli restarted 2.2 million tons, and Weilian Chemical had 2.5 million tons offline, resulting in PTA load rising to 78.2% (+0.5%) [3] - Demand: Some polyester facilities were under maintenance, while others increased their load, leading to a decline in polyester's overall load to 90.2% (-1.2%). On July 7, the price of polyester filament decreased by 50-150 RMB, indicating weak overall sales [3] - The current market is in the off-season with rising fabric inventory, and there is a high probability of continued downward pressure on filament prices [3] Price Outlook - The repair intensity of PTA facilities in July is moderate, and with new PTA facilities operating stably, there are expectations of reduced production in downstream polyester factories and continued weak terminal demand, leading to a bearish supply-demand outlook for PTA [4] - Despite short-term support from strong oil prices and tight PX supply-demand expectations, the absolute price rebound for PTA remains limited due to accelerating negative feedback from the terminal [4] - The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate in the range of 4600-4900, with a bearish bias at the upper end [4]

Market Overview - On June 26, PTA futures experienced fluctuations, with the spot market showing general negotiations and a weakening basis. The trading range for this week and next week is between 09+255 to 265, with some transactions slightly lower, and the price negotiation range is around 4990 to 5050 [1] - The main spot basis is at 09+259 [1] Cost Analysis - As of June 26, the PTA spot processing fee is approximately 408 yuan/ton, while the TA2509 market processing fee is 367 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: This week, Yisheng New Materials reduced its operating load to 360,000 tons, resulting in PTA load dropping to 77.7% (-1.4%) by Thursday [3] - Demand: A nearby unit is undergoing maintenance, and a bottle chip factory is implementing production cuts, leading to a slight decrease in polyester load to around 91.2% (-0.8%). The operating rates for weaving, knitting, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have slightly adjusted, with rates at 76% (-1%), 66% (+1%), and 67% (-1%) respectively. Orders in the grey fabric sector have shown slight improvement, particularly in the Haining area, although feedback from other regions remains relatively weak. Concerns over escalating Middle East tensions have led to some replenishment in downstream polyester filament, but after the reduction of oil prices due to the dissipating geopolitical factors, raw material prices have fallen, leading to discounts in filament prices. Currently, downstream raw material inventory is primarily at 7-15 days, with sporadic high inventory levels at 20-30 days [3] Market Outlook - Despite maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli facilities, the expectation for PTA supply and demand is weakening due to the commissioning of new facilities, limited future maintenance plans, and continuous signals of production cuts from downstream polyester factories. The overall demand remains weak, leading to a sustained decline in terminal load. The limited driving force from oil prices suggests that PTA will experience limited upward momentum in the short term, with fluctuations expected to remain within the 4600-4900 range. A cautious approach is recommended for TA trading strategies [4]