【现货方面】 7月9日，PTA期货小幅收涨，现货市场商谈一般，贸易商商为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘，现货基差快速 走弱后企稳。本周及下周货在09+20~45有成交，个别略高在09+60有成交，价格商谈区间在4720~4770 附近。7月底在09+15~40有成交，夜盘在09+50于有成交。主流现货基差在09+36。 【成本方面】 7月9日，PTA现货加工费至159元/吨附近，TA2509盘面加工费314元/吨。 供应：上周PTA负荷升至78.2%（+0.5%）。 需求：上周聚酯综合负荷继续下滑至90.2%（-1.2%）附近。7月9日，涤丝价格重心局部下调，产销整体 偏弱。近期丝价持续回落，且目前处于淡季以及天气较热，销售会较为平淡，开工率下滑，坯布库存有 所上升。后期丝价较大概率继续下行为主，长丝工厂库存继续增加。近期需关注长丝企业减产和长丝价 格重心调整情况。 【行情展望】 7月PTA装置检修力度一般，且三房巷（600370）PTA装置有投产预期，下游聚酯工厂7月减产预期较强 以及终端需求持续偏弱，PTA供需预期转弱，近期PTA基差进一步走弱。绝对价格上，油价短期走势偏 强，以及原料PX供需预期偏紧，叠加PTA ...

Market Overview - On July 7, PTA futures showed a weak fluctuation, with a quiet spot market and weak basis, primarily driven by traders' negotiations, with sporadic offers from polyester factories [1] - The mainstream spot basis was reported at 09+103, with transaction prices ranging from 4790 to 4830 RMB/ton [1] Cost Analysis - As of July 7, the PTA spot processing fee was around 265 RMB/ton, while the TA2509 contract processing fee was 332 RMB/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, Yisheng New Materials increased its load to 3.6 million tons, Hengli restarted 2.2 million tons, and Weilian Chemical had 2.5 million tons offline, resulting in PTA load rising to 78.2% (+0.5%) [3] - Demand: Some polyester facilities were under maintenance, while others increased their load, leading to a decline in polyester's overall load to 90.2% (-1.2%). On July 7, the price of polyester filament decreased by 50-150 RMB, indicating weak overall sales [3] - The current market is in the off-season with rising fabric inventory, and there is a high probability of continued downward pressure on filament prices [3] Price Outlook - The repair intensity of PTA facilities in July is moderate, and with new PTA facilities operating stably, there are expectations of reduced production in downstream polyester factories and continued weak terminal demand, leading to a bearish supply-demand outlook for PTA [4] - Despite short-term support from strong oil prices and tight PX supply-demand expectations, the absolute price rebound for PTA remains limited due to accelerating negative feedback from the terminal [4] - The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate in the range of 4600-4900, with a bearish bias at the upper end [4]

Market Overview - On June 26, PTA futures experienced fluctuations, with the spot market showing general negotiations and a weakening basis. The trading range for this week and next week is between 09+255 to 265, with some transactions slightly lower, and the price negotiation range is around 4990 to 5050 [1] - The main spot basis is at 09+259 [1] Cost Analysis - As of June 26, the PTA spot processing fee is approximately 408 yuan/ton, while the TA2509 market processing fee is 367 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: This week, Yisheng New Materials reduced its operating load to 360,000 tons, resulting in PTA load dropping to 77.7% (-1.4%) by Thursday [3] - Demand: A nearby unit is undergoing maintenance, and a bottle chip factory is implementing production cuts, leading to a slight decrease in polyester load to around 91.2% (-0.8%). The operating rates for weaving, knitting, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have slightly adjusted, with rates at 76% (-1%), 66% (+1%), and 67% (-1%) respectively. Orders in the grey fabric sector have shown slight improvement, particularly in the Haining area, although feedback from other regions remains relatively weak. Concerns over escalating Middle East tensions have led to some replenishment in downstream polyester filament, but after the reduction of oil prices due to the dissipating geopolitical factors, raw material prices have fallen, leading to discounts in filament prices. Currently, downstream raw material inventory is primarily at 7-15 days, with sporadic high inventory levels at 20-30 days [3] Market Outlook - Despite maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli facilities, the expectation for PTA supply and demand is weakening due to the commissioning of new facilities, limited future maintenance plans, and continuous signals of production cuts from downstream polyester factories. The overall demand remains weak, leading to a sustained decline in terminal load. The limited driving force from oil prices suggests that PTA will experience limited upward momentum in the short term, with fluctuations expected to remain within the 4600-4900 range. A cautious approach is recommended for TA trading strategies [4]