Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - PTA maintenance has limited positive effects, and it is advisable to wait and see. The continuous low processing fees have increased the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises, with Q4 PTA maintenance capacity slightly exceeding market expectations. Although polyester load has increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectations, the load of filament and staple fiber has reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, suppressing the rebound space of PTA processing fees. On the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure; crude oil is oscillating weakly [2][16]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4608, the highest was 4688, the lowest was 4532, and the closing price was 4646, with a weekly increase of 42 or 0.91% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end, with only one 3 - million - ton new capacity plan in Yulongdao in 2024 and no new project commissioning expected in 2025. From January to August 2025, domestic PX output was 24.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.65%; from January to May 2025, domestic PX imports were 5.284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. - Asian PX device maintenance in 2025 was still concentrated in the second quarter. In the third quarter, Fuhai Chuang and Dongying United carried out maintenance as scheduled, while Tianjin Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua postponed it, and Daxie planned to increase the load. The average domestic PX operating rate in the third quarter was 83.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the average Asian PX operating rate was 75.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The average PXN in the third quarter was $252/ton, an increase of $19/ton compared with the second quarter. Currently, PXN has dropped to around $207/ton. - In the fourth quarter, there are not many PX device maintenance plans in Asia. Zhejiang Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou in the Chinese mainland, and FCFC in Taiwan, China have device maintenance plans. It is expected that the PX load in Asia and China will remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure [5][6]. 2.2 High PTA Supply Pressure - From January to August 2025, domestic PTA output was 48.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. As of now, the domestic PTA capacity is as high as 91.715 million tons/year, with a total of 6.6 million tons/year of new PTA capacity commissioned this year, a capacity growth rate of 7.8%. There is still a 3 - million - ton/year new device of Xin凤鸣 to be commissioned in Q4. - Due to low processing fees, the maintenance loss of industry devices in Q3 increased. The PTA processing fee in the third quarter remained at a low level, with an average of 189 yuan/ton. The continuous low processing fees have led to an increase in the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises. The total PTA maintenance capacity in Q4 is 15.5 million tons/year, slightly more than market expectations. In the fourth quarter, Ineos, Dushan Energy, Hengli, Energy Investment, Xin凤鸣, etc. have maintenance plans, and the commissioning of Dushan Energy's new device is postponed. It is expected that the room for PTA load increase in Q4 is limited [7]. - This week, domestic PTA output was 1.4038 million tons, a decrease of 27,100 tons from last week and an increase of 29,500 tons from the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81% and a year - on - year increase of 2.75%. This week, Fuhai Chuang restarted, South China devices reduced the load, and Ineos stopped due to weather reasons, resulting in domestic supply being weaker than expected and a slight decrease in domestic overall output this cycle [8]. 2.3 Inflection Point in Polyester Start - up - From January to August 2025, domestic polyester output was 52.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 8.218 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester output), a year - on - year increase of 18%. - In the third quarter, the polyester load increased slightly month - on - month, with an average load of 89.3%, a slight increase of 0.5% compared with the second quarter, mainly dragged down by bottle - chip production cuts. This week, the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry was 1.5418 million tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 87.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. - It is expected that the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry next week will be slightly less than 1.53 million tons. Due to the large - scale shutdown of the Huaxin device and the time required for the load increase of the Henghai device after commissioning, it is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will decline slightly next week. - Under the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, the terminal load gradually recovered. As of the end of September, the load of texturing, weaving, and dyeing recovered to 81%, 70%, and 76% respectively, lower than the level of the same period last year. In the fourth quarter, although the polyester load increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, the load of filament and staple fiber reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season of demand [13][14]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The continuous low processing fees have increased the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises, and the PTA maintenance capacity in Q4 is slightly more than market expectations. Although the polyester load has increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, the load of filament and staple fiber has reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, suppressing the rebound space of PTA processing fees. On the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure; crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, PTA maintenance has limited positive effects, and it is advisable to wait and see [16].