PTA：检修利好有限 摘 要： 策略建议：观望或短线 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 持续的低加工费导致近期行业头部企业检修意愿增 强，Q4 涉及到的 PTA 检修产能比市场预期量略偏多,金九 银十旺季预期下聚酯负荷有所提升，但长丝和短纤负荷至 历史同期高位，亏损格局下提升空间有限，后续随着终端 需求进入淡季，预计长丝和短纤负荷或有下降，需求抑制 PTA 加工费反弹空间。成本端考虑，预计 4 季度亚洲及国 内 PX 负荷将维持偏高水平，PXN 偏承压；原油震荡偏弱。 整体上，PTA 检修利好有限，观望为佳。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 2.1 PX 供需边际好弱 PX 产能方面，2024 年 PX 国内新增产能投产逐步进入尾声，其中 2024 年仅裕龙岛一套 300 万吨新产能投放计划，2025 年无新项目投放预期。2025 年 1-8 月国内 PX 产量 2485 万吨，同比增 加 0.65%；20 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with paraxylene (PX) futures experiencing a slight increase, reaching a high of 6852.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 1.70% [1] - Recent supply of PX has increased, while PTA operating rates remain stable, leading to a marginal weakening of PX fundamentals. However, terminal demand is expected to recover seasonally in August and September, with an anticipated increase in polyester operating rates [1] - Overall, while terminal demand shows marginal improvement and short-term supply-demand dynamics provide some support, PX valuations have risen significantly since the beginning of the year, suggesting limited upward potential and a likely period of volatility ahead, particularly in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The decline in crude oil prices has led to an overall correction in the energy and chemical sector, with PTA facilities experiencing reduced production due to low processing fees, resulting in limited recovery [2] - Despite the recent tightening of PX supply, the PX-N price spread remains robust at 254 USD, while PX prices in the external market have seen a slight rebound to 833 USD, indicating a continued volatile market environment [2] - The market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation as stakeholders await changes in PTA facility operations [2]