Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [2][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4506, the highest was 4532, the lowest was 4392, and the closing price was 4402, a weekly decline of 132 or 2.92% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX production capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. In 2024, only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton production capacity, and there is no expectation of new project commissioning in 2025. From January to September 2025, domestic PX production was 28.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.82%; imports were 7.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.02%. In August, the PX social inventory was 3.9179 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%. This month, PX imports were high and downstream device operating loads were low, leading to an increase in PX social inventory [5] - The domestic PX load decreased by 0.81% to 87.4%, and the Asian PX load increased by 0.96% to 77.92%. This week's PX output was 733,100 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared with last week. During the period, the average PX - N was $225.68/ton, a month - on - month increase of $6.9/ton [5] - This week, Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 - million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month; Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. Overseas, the PX of Indonesia's TPPI refinery was still operating after a fire, and South Korea's SK refinery's PX device was not affected by a fire. Next week, PTT and Satorp will have devices for planned maintenance, and the overseas PX load is expected to decrease. There will be few Asian PX device maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the load of Asian and domestic PX is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with PXN under pressure [6] 2.2 Increased PTA Maintenance Intensity - From January to September 2025, domestic PTA production was 54.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. This week, domestic PTA production was 1.3983 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with last week and 7,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 75.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09%. The average PTA cost was 4,234.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 127.46 yuan/ton; the average profit was - 277.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton; the average processing fee was 182.27 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton [8] - This week, Hengli Petrochemical reduced production as planned, Yisheng New Materials increased load in the middle of the week, the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices increased, and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton device slightly reduced load. The domestic supply met expectations, and the domestic overall production inventory decreased this period. The current PTA social inventory is 3.1984 million tons, a decrease of 61,200 tons or 1.88% compared with last week. With the recovery of some PTA device loads and news of new device commissioning, the PTA spot basis weakened significantly. However, as the basis approaches the risk - free arbitrage point and some mainstream PTA suppliers reduce device loads, the subsequent basis decline space is limited [8] 2.3 High Polyester Operating Load - From January to September 2025, domestic polyester production was 58.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 91.18 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester production), a year - on - year increase of 15.8% [12] - This week, China's polyester industry output was 155,400 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 0.04% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%. Longzhong predicts that next week, China's polyester industry output is expected to be around 155000 - 156000 tons, a slight increase compared with this period. At present, after the previous device commissioning and the restart of long - stopped devices, the load will gradually increase, and there are also device commissioning plans next week. It is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will increase slightly next week [12] - As of October 17, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%. As of October 17, the inventory of grey cloth of East China weaving enterprises was 30.0 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 day. As of October 17, the inventories of POY, FDY, bottle chips, and staple fibers were 16.8 days, 22.1 days, 16.0 days, and 6.1 days respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms first decreased and then increased, the downstream polyester load was relatively stable, the market production and sales structure was differentiated, the filament inventory accumulated, and the staple fiber inventory decreased month - on - month. However, recently, trade frictions have escalated, terminal export orders have declined. As the terminal demand enters the off - season, it is expected that the loads of filaments and staple fibers may decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [14]

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - PTA maintenance has limited positive effects, and it is advisable to wait and see. The continuous low processing fees have increased the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises, with Q4 PTA maintenance capacity slightly exceeding market expectations. Although polyester load has increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectations, the load of filament and staple fiber has reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, suppressing the rebound space of PTA processing fees. On the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure; crude oil is oscillating weakly [2][16]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4608, the highest was 4688, the lowest was 4532, and the closing price was 4646, with a weekly increase of 42 or 0.91% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end, with only one 3 - million - ton new capacity plan in Yulongdao in 2024 and no new project commissioning expected in 2025. From January to August 2025, domestic PX output was 24.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.65%; from January to May 2025, domestic PX imports were 5.284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. - Asian PX device maintenance in 2025 was still concentrated in the second quarter. In the third quarter, Fuhai Chuang and Dongying United carried out maintenance as scheduled, while Tianjin Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua postponed it, and Daxie planned to increase the load. The average domestic PX operating rate in the third quarter was 83.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the average Asian PX operating rate was 75.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The average PXN in the third quarter was $252/ton, an increase of $19/ton compared with the second quarter. Currently, PXN has dropped to around $207/ton. - In the fourth quarter, there are not many PX device maintenance plans in Asia. Zhejiang Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou in the Chinese mainland, and FCFC in Taiwan, China have device maintenance plans. It is expected that the PX load in Asia and China will remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure [5][6]. 2.2 High PTA Supply Pressure - From January to August 2025, domestic PTA output was 48.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. As of now, the domestic PTA capacity is as high as 91.715 million tons/year, with a total of 6.6 million tons/year of new PTA capacity commissioned this year, a capacity growth rate of 7.8%. There is still a 3 - million - ton/year new device of Xin凤鸣 to be commissioned in Q4. - Due to low processing fees, the maintenance loss of industry devices in Q3 increased. The PTA processing fee in the third quarter remained at a low level, with an average of 189 yuan/ton. The continuous low processing fees have led to an increase in the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises. The total PTA maintenance capacity in Q4 is 15.5 million tons/year, slightly more than market expectations. In the fourth quarter, Ineos, Dushan Energy, Hengli, Energy Investment, Xin凤鸣, etc. have maintenance plans, and the commissioning of Dushan Energy's new device is postponed. It is expected that the room for PTA load increase in Q4 is limited [7]. - This week, domestic PTA output was 1.4038 million tons, a decrease of 27,100 tons from last week and an increase of 29,500 tons from the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81% and a year - on - year increase of 2.75%. This week, Fuhai Chuang restarted, South China devices reduced the load, and Ineos stopped due to weather reasons, resulting in domestic supply being weaker than expected and a slight decrease in domestic overall output this cycle [8]. 2.3 Inflection Point in Polyester Start - up - From January to August 2025, domestic polyester output was 52.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 8.218 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester output), a year - on - year increase of 18%. - In the third quarter, the polyester load increased slightly month - on - month, with an average load of 89.3%, a slight increase of 0.5% compared with the second quarter, mainly dragged down by bottle - chip production cuts. This week, the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry was 1.5418 million tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 87.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. - It is expected that the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry next week will be slightly less than 1.53 million tons. Due to the large - scale shutdown of the Huaxin device and the time required for the load increase of the Henghai device after commissioning, it is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will decline slightly next week. - Under the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, the terminal load gradually recovered. As of the end of September, the load of texturing, weaving, and dyeing recovered to 81%, 70%, and 76% respectively, lower than the level of the same period last year. In the fourth quarter, although the polyester load increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, the load of filament and staple fiber reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season of demand [13][14]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The continuous low processing fees have increased the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises, and the PTA maintenance capacity in Q4 is slightly more than market expectations. Although the polyester load has increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, the load of filament and staple fiber has reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, suppressing the rebound space of PTA processing fees. On the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure; crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, PTA maintenance has limited positive effects, and it is advisable to wait and see [16].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]