1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand with high valuations. Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a high point for the year, but the valuation pressure is significant. In the short term, there is an expectation of supply reduction due to anti - involution and a rebound in the black building materials sector, but there is a risk of a sharp decline after the sentiment fades. In the medium term, the industry is suppressed by large - scale capacity growth and continuous decline in real estate demand. It needs to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the excess domestic production capacity [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is reported at 2,225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is at 585 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has risen to a high point for the year, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to rebound, but the valuation support is currently weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.8%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.3%, a 0.5% decrease, and the ethylene method is 70.3%, a 1.7% decrease. The supply load decreased last week due to the maintenance of several enterprises, and it is expected to recover next week. There were more maintenance operations in July than in June, but the supply pressure remains high, and the pressure of new device production in the third quarter is large [11]. - **Demand**: India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the weak export pressure in the third quarter, with an expectation of pre - tariff export rush. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have rebounded this week. The overall downstream load is 41.9%, a 1.8% increase from the previous period, but still weak compared to the same period last year. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 795,000 tons, a 99,000 - ton increase from the previous period [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 357,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the social inventory was 683,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous period; the overall inventory was 1.04 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts has increased. In the future, under the pattern of strong domestic supply and weak demand, the supply - demand situation will turn to inventory accumulation, and it is necessary to observe whether the export is better than expected [11]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure. The maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of devices will be put into production. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and still in the off - season. The cost support is weakening. In the medium term, the industry is suppressed by capacity growth and real - estate demand decline. Overall, the fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether the subsequent export can reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot markets, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 9 - 1 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [16][19][24][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has recovered to a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure [37]. - **Inventory**: The report shows multiple charts of PVC inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium - carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [31][34][36]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices are falling and inventory is accumulating. The report presents charts of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Lanzhou semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda price in Shandong, liquid chlorine price in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2021 to 2025 [44][45][48]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year, including several enterprises such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) [57][62]. - The report shows charts of PVC historical capacity trends, 2025 PVC production capacity, and raw materials consumed by 2025 PVC production [58][60][63]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have rebounded. The export volume and pre - sales volume have also increased to some extent. India's anti - dumping policy extension may lead to an export rush at the end of the rainy season [11]. - The report presents charts of PVC downstream operating rates (including profiles, films, and pipes), export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and China's housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year from 2021 to 2025 [73][81][86].