1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the domestic PVC spot market oscillated downward. The upstream energy prices回调 due to geopolitical easing, and the short - term expectations of bulk commodities and industrial policies were poor. The market returned to the fundamental trend. During the holiday, PVC production enterprises maintained high - load production, supply increased slowly, downstream product enterprises were still in the process of resuming work, mainly for export delivery. The industry inventory increased seasonally, and short - term supply did not decrease. There were uncertainties in domestic and foreign demand, and the spot fundamentals were under pressure. Coupled with the weakening of the cost of the calcium carbide method, the spot price oscillated weakly. The scale of new maintenance of PVC production enterprises this week was extremely small, the market supply remained high, domestic trade demand was recovering, and foreign trade exports were on delivery schedule. However, long - term orders were on hold due to tax rebates. The market inventory still had a trend of further accumulation with the recovery of logistics. The probability of the price of calcium carbide and other materials rebounding from the bottom increased, and the cost bottom support was improving. Fundamentally, the PVC spot market maintained a weak oscillation within a range. Considering the increasing number of subsequent policies, the downward space of the futures price was limited in the short term. It was expected that the ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type 5 PVC in the East China region would be in the range of 4,600 - 4,780 yuan/ton. Short - term focus should be on the inventory removal speed and overseas price performance. Although the short - term absolute inventory level was high, there was a rush for export delivery, and the inventory would enter a period of rapid removal in March. In the medium and long term, the rush for exports would overdraw future demand, and the profit was good with a high operating rate, so the scale of spring maintenance might be lower than expected. The trading strategy was to go long at low prices without chasing the rise, to wait and see for arbitrage, and to wait and see for over - the - counter trading [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market situation**: After the holiday, the PVC spot market oscillated downward. The upstream energy prices回调, and the market returned to the fundamental trend. The supply increased slowly, downstream enterprises were resuming work, and the inventory increased seasonally. The cost of the calcium carbide method weakened, and the spot price oscillated weakly [4] - **Outlook**: The market supply remained high, domestic trade demand was recovering, and foreign trade exports were on delivery schedule. The inventory still had a trend of further accumulation. The cost bottom support was improving, and the market would maintain a weak oscillation within a range. The downward space of the futures price was limited in the short term. It was expected that the ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type 5 PVC in the East China region would be in the range of 4,600 - 4,780 yuan/ton [4] - **Focus points**: Short - term focus on the inventory removal speed and overseas price performance. In March, the inventory would enter a period of rapid removal. In the medium and long term, the rush for exports would overdraw future demand, and the scale of spring maintenance might be lower than expected [4] - **Trading strategy**: Go long at low prices without chasing the rise; wait and see for arbitrage; wait and see for over - the - counter trading [4] Chapter 2: Fundamental Data Core Data Changes - **Production**: The output of PVC production enterprises was 502,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% (1,000 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 9.37% (43,100 tons). Among them, the output of calcium carbide - method enterprises was 351,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.04%; the output of ethylene - method enterprises was 151,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year increase of 39.73% [5] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of the PVC industry was 1,914,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 20.23% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 36.46%. The inventory of production enterprises was 561,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%, a month - on - month increase of 65.80% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. The social inventory of PVC was 1,353,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% after the holiday, a year - on - year increase of 58.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 64.42% compared with after the Spring Festival last year [5] - **Load and maintenance**: The loss of maintenance and production reduction this week was 108,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.09% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.01%. The production capacity scale of maintenance enterprises in February was 2.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.09%. The preliminary statistics of maintenance production capacity in March was 1.89 million tons [5] - **Downstream enterprises**: The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week was 17.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 11.36% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year increase of 25.35%. The profile machine - starting rate was 11.30%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 25.80%; the pipe machine - starting rate was 13.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 28.28%. The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises increased by 0.2 days to 12.6 days [5] - **Export**: The sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises increased by 2.75% compared with before the holiday to 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.58%. The delivery volume increased by 138% compared with before the holiday to 53,800 tons (including the total delivery volume during the holiday), and the volume to be delivered decreased by 11.87% to 227,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 89.91%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, shipping space, expected increase in sea freight, and the fact that enterprises had not announced the signing price for April, the atmosphere of export order - signing during and after the Spring Festival was weak, and the delivery price of PVC in March stabilized after the holiday [5] PVC Supply Analysis - **Enterprise output by process**: The output of calcium carbide - method enterprises was 351,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.04%; the output of ethylene - method enterprises was 151,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year increase of 39.73% [5] - **Enterprise output by region**: Not provided in the content - **Enterprise pre - sales by process**: Not provided in the content - **Enterprise capacity utilization by process**: Not provided in the content - **Raw material source weekly operating data**: Not provided in the content - **Maintenance enterprise statistics**: Many enterprises had maintenance plans from February to April, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some were due to high - cost reasons, and some were routine maintenance [23] - **Production enterprise production increase plans**: Many enterprises had production increase plans, such as Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials, Qilu Petrochemical, etc. The production time varied from 2025 to the long - term future, and some plans were uncertain or on hold [24] PVC Cost Analysis - **Raw material cost comparison over the years**: Not provided in the content - **Raw material gross profit comparison over the years**: Not provided in the content PVC Inventory Analysis - **Production enterprise inventory by process/region**: Not provided in the content - **PVC social inventory/industry inventory**: The sample inventory of the PVC industry was 1,914,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 20.23% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 36.46%. The inventory of production enterprises was 561,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%, a month - on - month increase of 65.80% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. The social inventory of PVC was 1,353,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% after the holiday, a year - on - year increase of 58.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 64.42% compared with after the Spring Festival last year [5] PVC Demand Analysis - **Product enterprise operation and inventory**: The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week was 17.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 11.36% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year increase of 25.35%. The profile machine - starting rate was 11.30%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 25.80%; the pipe machine - starting rate was 13.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 28.28%. The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises increased by 0.2 days to 12.6 days [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Due to the sudden geopolitical conflict in the Middle East over the weekend, the supply of international crude oil and natural gas has become tight, driving up energy prices. With the increase in ethylene costs and concerns about supply shortages, the bullish sentiment in the PVC market has been rising. The cost of the ethylene method has increased by more than 380 yuan/ton this week, and the spot market price has risen steadily. The price of calcium carbide-based Type 5 PVC in East China has reached 4,800 - 5,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Next week, the scale of maintenance of PVC production enterprises will change little. Domestic demand is expected to recover, and foreign trade exports are waiting for April quotes. The supply - demand fundamentals will remain in a stalemate. Due to geopolitical impacts, the ethylene method is expected to rise. It is predicted that the PVC spot market will be weakly stalemated next week and still be affected by geopolitical conflict sentiment. There is a need to be vigilant about the pressure on the ethylene market caused by energy supply disruptions, which may lead to a reduction in the global ethylene - based supply. Overall, the ex - warehouse cash price of calcium carbide - based Type 5 PVC in East China is initially expected to be in the range of 4,800 - 5,100 yuan/ton [3]. - The trading strategy is to go long at low prices but not to chase the rise for single - side trading; to wait and see for arbitrage; and to wait and see for over - the - counter trading [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The report provides a trading strategy of going long at low prices but not chasing the rise for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for over - the - counter trading [3]. Fundamental Data - **Core Data Changes** - PVC production enterprise output is 49.61 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.28% (0.64 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 5.97% (2.80 tons). The PVC industry inventory sample is 191.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14% and a year - on - year increase of 36.37%. The inventory of all sample production enterprises is 51.29 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.59% and a year - on - year increase of 1.96%. The PVC social inventory is 140.38 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.76% and a year - on - year increase of 62.29% [4]. - This week, Jiyuan Fangsheng and Yantai Wanhua had maintenance, and some enterprises adjusted their loads. Hangjin stopped production in March. The loss of production due to maintenance and production reduction this week is 11.51 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90% and a year - on - year increase of 3.91%. The production capacity of maintenance enterprises in March is 3.14 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% [4]. - The average weekly trading volume in the PVC market this week is 1.47 tons, with an increase of 0.7 tons compared to before the holiday and a decrease of 0.3 tons compared to the same period last year [4]. - The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week is 35.84%, with a month - on - month increase of 18.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.61%. The profile operating rate is 27.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. The pipe operating rate is 33%, with a month - on - month increase of 19.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.88% [4]. - The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises this period have increased by 1.4 days to 14 days. Upstream and the market have delivered goods to the terminal after the holiday, and product enterprises have made appropriate low - price purchases [4]. - The sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises this week has increased by 27.6% to 2.45 tons compared to the previous period, with a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The delivery volume has decreased by 22% to 4.2 tons (enterprises have concentrated on delivering exports this week), and the undelivered volume has decreased by 7.71% to 20.96 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 60.79%. Affected by shipping space, rising freight rates, and the Middle East situation, the March delivery price of PVC has stabilized, with the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC at 635 - 640 US dollars/ton and that of ethylene - based PVC at 655 - 670 US dollars/ton [4]. - **PVC Supply Analysis** - **Enterprise Output by Process**: Not provided in the given content - **Enterprise Output by Region**: Not provided in the given content - **Enterprise Pre - sales by Process**: Not provided in the given content - **Enterprise Capacity Utilization by Process**: Not provided in the given content - **Raw Material Source Weekly Operating Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Maintenance Enterprise Statistics**: Many enterprises have maintenance plans in March and April, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some are cost - based maintenance, and some are regular maintenance. There are also foreign enterprises with maintenance plans, such as Japan's Taiyo Ethylene, Formosa Plastics USA, etc. [19]. - **Production Enterprise Production Increase Plan**: Many enterprises have production increase plans, including Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials, Andao in Guangxi, etc. The production increase plans involve both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, and the planned production times vary [20]. - **PVC Cost Analysis** - **Raw Material Cost Comparison over the Years**: Not provided in the given content - **Raw Material Gross Margin Comparison over the Years**: Not provided in the given content - **PVC Supply Analysis - Production Enterprise Inventory by Process/Region**: Not provided in the given content - **PVC Demand Analysis - Product Enterprise Operating Rate and Inventory** - The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week is 35.84%, with a month - on - month increase of 18.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.61%. The profile operating rate is 27.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. The pipe operating rate is 33%, with a month - on - month increase of 19.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.88% [4]. - The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises this period have increased by 1.4 days to 14 days [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The domestic PVC market is currently characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The overall fundamentals are poor, with domestic demand being weak and unable to reverse the pattern of oversupply. Although there is a short - term boost in exports due to the rush to export before the cancellation of export tax rebates, there is significant pressure on exports in the medium term. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is limited, and downstream domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is reported at 2,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan; Shandong calcium carbide price is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 165 yuan; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 735 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan. The integrated profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production has declined, and the current valuation is neutral [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 82.1%, unchanged from the previous week. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 81.7%, a 0.3% week - on - week decrease; the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 83.2%, a 0.7% week - on - week increase. The supply side has changed little overall last week and remained at a high level. It is expected that the load will decline slightly next week. Although some enterprises may start spring inspections in March, due to the high absolute load level, the supply pressure is still expected to be large [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the short - term has entered a stage of rushing to export. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival holiday. The load of pipes is 13.6%, a 13.6% week - on - week increase; the load of films is 26.4%, a 26.4% week - on - week increase; the load of profiles is 11.3%, an 11.3% week - on - week increase; the overall downstream load is 17.1%, a 17.1% week - on - week increase. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from the previous week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 504,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 1.353 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week; the overall inventory was 1.857 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased seasonally [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [15][16][19]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The report shows multiple charts of PVC inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [31][36][37]. - **Profit**: The report shows multiple charts of PVC profit, including the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based profit, ethylene - based profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [42]. 3.4 Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have weakened significantly. Wuhai calcium carbide price and Shandong calcium carbide price have decreased week - on - week. The report also shows charts of calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda price, liquid chlorine price, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [45][46]. 3.5 Supply Side - The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, the raw materials consumed by the new production capacity, and the operating rates of PVC, calcium carbide - based PVC, and ethylene - based PVC. In 2025, a total of 2.5 million tons/year of new PVC production capacity was put into operation, including both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based processes [55][59]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of PVC's three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) are gradually recovering. The export volume of PVC and the export volume to India are also presented, as well as the pre - sales volume of PVC. There is also a chart showing the rolling cumulative year - on - year change in China's housing completion area, which is related to PVC demand. The export tax - rebate policy cancellation has led to a short - term rush to export [69][77][83].

Core Viewpoint - The PVC futures market experienced a "V-shaped" rebound in January 2026, driven by improved market sentiment and significant capital inflow, with the main contract reaching a three-month high of 5125 yuan/ton [5][22]. Group 1: Market Performance - The V2605 contract closed at 5063 yuan/ton on January 30, marking a monthly increase of 5.37% and a rise of 258 yuan/ton [5][22]. - The trading volume for the V2605 contract surged by approximately 11.735 million lots to 28.433 million lots, with open interest increasing by 123,000 lots to 1.046 million lots, indicating heightened market activity [5][22]. Group 2: Supply Side - PVC production remains high due to increased capacity, with a weekly operating rate of 78.93% as of January 30, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.98% [7][24]. - The weekly production reached 483,300 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous month and a year-on-year rise of 9,000 tons [7][24]. Group 3: Export Performance - China is a net exporter of PVC, with exports in December 2025 reaching approximately 314,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year increase of 35.04% [9][26]. - The total PVC export volume for 2025 was about 3.823 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.01% [9][26]. Group 4: Demand Side - The demand side shows weakness, particularly in the real estate sector, with a significant decline in housing investment and construction activities [10][28]. - As of January 30, 2026, the average operating rate for downstream PVC users was 44.75%, with many small manufacturers halting operations [10][28]. Group 5: Inventory Levels - PVC inventory levels have been continuously increasing, with small sample social inventory reaching 584,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 44.44% [13][31]. - The large sample social inventory stood at 1.2064 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.53%, indicating a supply-demand mismatch in the industry [13][31]. Group 6: Summary and Outlook - The PVC market is characterized by a supply surplus, with high inventory levels likely to suppress price increases in the short term [15][34]. - The market is expected to experience high volatility or a downward trend due to weak domestic demand, with limited upward price potential in the medium to long term [15][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic PVC market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals. Although short - term electricity price expectations and the rush to export may support PVC prices, in the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies should be adopted before substantial industry production cuts [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has declined to a low level again, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased, with the current valuation being moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.6%, unchanged from the previous week. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 80%, up 0.3% from the previous week; the ethylene method is 78.8%, down 0.8% from the previous week. The supply - side load was flat last week, with the loads of Fujian Wanhua, Yibin Tianyuan, and Salt Lake Magnesium Industry decreasing. The load is expected to decline next week. The overall load in January is still expected to be high, with a small reduction in production and high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term rush to export. The operating rates of the three major downstream sectors remained stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the profile load is 29.9%, down 0.3% from the previous week. The overall downstream load is 43.9%, down 0.1% from the previous week, and the overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 92.6 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from the previous week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 31.1 million tons, with a destocking of 1.7 million tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 114.4 million tons, with a stockpiling of 3 million tons from the previous week; the overall inventory was 145.5 million tons, with a stockpiling of 1.3 million tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Currently, inventory is turning to stockpiling. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, domestic demand has entered the off - season. Short - term exports may surge due to the rush to export, but there is significant medium - term export pressure, making it difficult to digest the high production volume [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The content mainly includes multiple charts such as PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, showing the historical trends of these data from 2022 to 2026 [15][19][24][26] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - The content presents various charts related to inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventories, and warehouse receipts, as well as charts related to profit, such as the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][39][41] 3.4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: Calcium carbide prices in Wuhai and Shandong are presented in the chart, along with the inventory and operating rate of calcium carbide, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The calcium carbide price is currently stable [47][48] - **Other Raw Materials**: The chart shows the price trends of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price [55] 3.5. Supply Side - **Capacity**: The historical trend of PVC capacity and the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025 are presented, including information on specific production facilities, production processes, production capacities, and commissioning times, with a total capacity of 2.5 million tons/year in 2025 [59][63] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly PVC production volume, are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [68][69] 3.6. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of PVC downstream sectors such as pipes, films, and profiles are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season, with the pipe load at 35.4%, the film load at 66.4%, the profile load at 29.9%, and the overall downstream load at 43.9% [74][75] - **Export Demand**: The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, and the pre - sales volume are presented, showing their historical trends. Currently, it is the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy cancellation on April 1st will lead to a short - term rush to export [77][82] - **Related Indicators**: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, which is related to PVC demand [84]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PVC is weak. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, and the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be further relaxed. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, the downstream starts are generally flat, the inventory is increasing, and the cost - side profit is still low year - on - year. The supply - demand of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu, high overall supply - side start, and general downstream receiving sentiment [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4940 yuan/ton (+43), the East China basis is - 320 yuan/ton (- 43), and the South China basis is - 310 yuan/ton (- 43). - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4620 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4630 yuan/ton (+0). - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+25), the calcium carbide profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+25), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 634 yuan/ton (+80), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is - 18.2 US dollars/ton (+3.8). - Inventory and start - up: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the calcium carbide method start - up rate is 80.23% (+2.00%), the ethylene method start - up rate is 75.69% (+0.41%), and the overall start - up rate is 78.85% (+1.51%). - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled from April 1st, and there may be a situation of rushing to export. The export orders still have resilience, which is beneficial to the contracts before April. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, the downstream start is generally flat, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The inventory is increasing slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. The cost - side profit is still low year - on - year, and the pressure of hedging on the disk still exists. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, and the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be further relaxed [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long V03 - 05 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2180 yuan/ton (- 44), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 30 yuan/ton (+44). - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0). - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1125 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 557.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 239.20 yuan/ton (- 35.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 554.50 yuan/ton (- 50.00). - Inventory and start - up: The factory inventory of liquid caustic soda is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the factory inventory of flake caustic soda is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the start - up rate of caustic soda is 86.80% (+0.40%). - Downstream start - up: The start - up rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%), the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.09% (- 0.72%), and the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+3.38%) [1][2]. Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline, and is weak due to the influence of low - price warehouse receipts. The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the disk has oscillated and corrected. The draft for soliciting opinions on differential electricity prices in Shaanxi has raised the cost expectation, but the impact is small. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, with inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu. The overall supply - side start is at a high level, the demand - side receiving sentiment is general, and the export orders continue to be sluggish [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish - Inter - delivery: Go short SH03 - 05 at high prices - Inter - commodity: None [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply - demand fundamentals show a pattern of oversupply. Although downstream demand has slightly improved, it is still at a low level. The cost - side support is insufficient, and the export is affected by policies and competition, making it difficult to increase significantly [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, with an oversupply pattern. The PVC supply has increased slightly due to maintenance, and the production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 80.75%, a 2.49% increase from the previous period. The maintenance loss volume is 4.323 tons, a decrease of 0.684 tons from the previous period [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rate of PVC pipe sample enterprises is 42%, a 0.8% increase from last week. The start - up rate of PVC profile enterprises has increased by 1.96%. The capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable at 41.28%. The export from January to September has increased, with a cumulative export of 292.16 tons [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of November 6, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.13% to 104.16 tons, with an increase of 26.42% year - on - year. The inventory in the East China region has increased, while that in the South China region has decreased [3] - **Basis**: It is neutral. The basis has weakened significantly, currently at - 111 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of both PVC production processes have decreased. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is - 769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous period. The average profit of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the disk is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - **Macro - policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there are many subsequent macro - events [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short at high levels; for arbitrage, there is no recommendation [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has oscillated weakly this week. The supply is still at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The spot prices in different regions are: 4600 - 4680 yuan/ton in East China, 4650 - 4710 yuan/ton in South China, 4420 - 4550 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 4580 - 4640 yuan/ton in Shandong [6] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the end of maintenance, the output in the Northwest has rebounded [35] - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. Factories in various regions have reduced their inventory [43][53] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The average downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, with the pipe start - up rate at 42% and the profile start - up rate at 37.83% [3][67] - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the volume due to policies and competition [75][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are weak, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China. The export outlook is turning weaker, and domestic demand is poor, making it difficult to reverse the situation of oversupply. - In the short - term, the valuation has declined to a low level, but it still cannot support the supply - demand situation that is weaker than in the first half of the year. The slowdown in inventory accumulation and the strong sentiment in the black market are supporting prices. - In the medium - term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be poor after the new device is put into production, and real estate demand continues to decline. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration continues to be low, and the profit of ethylene - based production is running at a low level, with a currently neutral - to - low valuation. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.6%, down 0.1% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 74.4%, down 0.3% month - on - month, and the ethylene method is 81.6%, up 0.4% month - on - month. The supply - side load decreased slightly last week due to maintenance at some companies. It is expected to rebound next week, and the overall load in October is expected to remain high, with multiple new devices expected to start trial production. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, which is expected to lead to a decline in exports. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries rebounded last week, with the overall downstream load rising by 1.3% to 49.9%. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 63.5 tons, up 8 tons week - on - week. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - plant inventory was 33.4 tons, down 2.7 tons week - on - week; the social inventory was 103.5 tons, up 0.1 tons week - on - week; the overall inventory was 136.9 tons, down 2.5 tons week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. It is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory is gradually shifting from upstream to mid - stream. [11] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market The content mainly presents various charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, prices, trading volume, and open interest of active contracts and total contracts from 2021 to 2025, but no specific analysis or summary is provided in the text. [15][16][18][26][28] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased this week, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The in - plant inventory and social inventory data from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, showing the trends of different types of inventories. [33][40] - **Profit**: The profit data of different production methods of PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, including the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration in Shandong. [41] 3.4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have a slight rebound. The prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide operating rate from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts. - Other cost - related factors such as the price of semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2021 to 2025 are also presented through charts. [47][48][50][54] 3.5. Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity investment in the PVC industry is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The historical trend of PVC capacity, the planned production capacity in 2025, and the raw materials required for production in different quarters are presented through charts and tables. - The operating rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, showing the trends of production capacity utilization. [57][59][61][63][64][65][70] 3.6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have rebounded. The operating rates of PVC film, profiles, and pipes from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts. - The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area are presented through charts, reflecting the demand situation from different aspects. [73][77][82][85][87][89]

Group 1 - The domestic PVC powder market shows a strong price adjustment today, with mainstream market prices increasing by 0-15 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of PVC powder this week is 75.14%, a decrease of 5.66 percentage points from last week [2] - Social inventory of PVC as of October 9 has increased by 5.58% to 1.0363 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [2] Group 2 - Supply and demand pressures remain significant, with both futures and spot prices trending weakly [3] - The demand side shows no significant performance during the peak season, indicating a lack of robust demand from downstream product companies [3] - Cost factors indicate that the price of raw material calcium carbide is expected to rise initially and then fall, while ethylene prices may remain firm [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is stagnant. The main influencing factors include the cost changes of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, supply and demand dynamics, and inventory levels. The PVC2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 4860 - 4922. [8][12] - Bullish factors: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. [11] - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% month - on - month increase. This week, the supply pressure decreased. The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.26%, a 0.76 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, but still below the historical average. The current demand may remain sluggish. [6][9] - **Basis**: On September 23, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 101 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [9] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a 1.20% month - on - month decrease. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a 0.56% month - on - month increase. [9] - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The main positions were net short, and short positions increased. [9] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the scheduled production will increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. [8] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, start - up rates, profits, and costs of different regions and varieties. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 decreased by 0.83% month - on - month to 4790 yuan/ton. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the main contract closing price. [17][18] - **Price and Volume**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from August to September 2025. [21] - **Spread Analysis**: It presents the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method production process. For example, the profit of the calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a 30.80% month - on - month increase in losses. [6][35] - **Supply Trend**: The current capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method enterprises is 76.96%, a 0.04 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 328,605 tons, a 3.14% month - on - month decrease, and that of ethylene method enterprises was 132,310 tons, a 5.16% month - on - month decrease. [6] - **Demand Trend**: It shows the downstream start - up rates of PVC, such as the profile start - up rate of 39.43%, a 0.21 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, and the pipe start - up rate of 39.13%, a 0.52 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. [9] - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days. [60][61] - **Ethylene Method**: It presents data on imports of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads in the ethylene method. [63] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including imports, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and exports. [66]