1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply - demand fundamentals show a pattern of oversupply. Although downstream demand has slightly improved, it is still at a low level. The cost - side support is insufficient, and the export is affected by policies and competition, making it difficult to increase significantly [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, with an oversupply pattern. The PVC supply has increased slightly due to maintenance, and the production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 80.75%, a 2.49% increase from the previous period. The maintenance loss volume is 4.323 tons, a decrease of 0.684 tons from the previous period [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rate of PVC pipe sample enterprises is 42%, a 0.8% increase from last week. The start - up rate of PVC profile enterprises has increased by 1.96%. The capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable at 41.28%. The export from January to September has increased, with a cumulative export of 292.16 tons [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of November 6, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.13% to 104.16 tons, with an increase of 26.42% year - on - year. The inventory in the East China region has increased, while that in the South China region has decreased [3] - **Basis**: It is neutral. The basis has weakened significantly, currently at - 111 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of both PVC production processes have decreased. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is - 769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous period. The average profit of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the disk is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - **Macro - policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there are many subsequent macro - events [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short at high levels; for arbitrage, there is no recommendation [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has oscillated weakly this week. The supply is still at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The spot prices in different regions are: 4600 - 4680 yuan/ton in East China, 4650 - 4710 yuan/ton in South China, 4420 - 4550 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 4580 - 4640 yuan/ton in Shandong [6] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the end of maintenance, the output in the Northwest has rebounded [35] - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. Factories in various regions have reduced their inventory [43][53] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The average downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, with the pipe start - up rate at 42% and the profile start - up rate at 37.83% [3][67] - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the volume due to policies and competition [75][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are weak, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China. The export outlook is turning weaker, and domestic demand is poor, making it difficult to reverse the situation of oversupply. - In the short - term, the valuation has declined to a low level, but it still cannot support the supply - demand situation that is weaker than in the first half of the year. The slowdown in inventory accumulation and the strong sentiment in the black market are supporting prices. - In the medium - term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be poor after the new device is put into production, and real estate demand continues to decline. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration continues to be low, and the profit of ethylene - based production is running at a low level, with a currently neutral - to - low valuation. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.6%, down 0.1% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 74.4%, down 0.3% month - on - month, and the ethylene method is 81.6%, up 0.4% month - on - month. The supply - side load decreased slightly last week due to maintenance at some companies. It is expected to rebound next week, and the overall load in October is expected to remain high, with multiple new devices expected to start trial production. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, which is expected to lead to a decline in exports. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries rebounded last week, with the overall downstream load rising by 1.3% to 49.9%. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 63.5 tons, up 8 tons week - on - week. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - plant inventory was 33.4 tons, down 2.7 tons week - on - week; the social inventory was 103.5 tons, up 0.1 tons week - on - week; the overall inventory was 136.9 tons, down 2.5 tons week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. It is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory is gradually shifting from upstream to mid - stream. [11] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market The content mainly presents various charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, prices, trading volume, and open interest of active contracts and total contracts from 2021 to 2025, but no specific analysis or summary is provided in the text. [15][16][18][26][28] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased this week, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The in - plant inventory and social inventory data from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, showing the trends of different types of inventories. [33][40] - **Profit**: The profit data of different production methods of PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, including the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration in Shandong. [41] 3.4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have a slight rebound. The prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide operating rate from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts. - Other cost - related factors such as the price of semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2021 to 2025 are also presented through charts. [47][48][50][54] 3.5. Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity investment in the PVC industry is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The historical trend of PVC capacity, the planned production capacity in 2025, and the raw materials required for production in different quarters are presented through charts and tables. - The operating rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, showing the trends of production capacity utilization. [57][59][61][63][64][65][70] 3.6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have rebounded. The operating rates of PVC film, profiles, and pipes from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts. - The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area are presented through charts, reflecting the demand situation from different aspects. [73][77][82][85][87][89]

Group 1 - The domestic PVC powder market shows a strong price adjustment today, with mainstream market prices increasing by 0-15 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of PVC powder this week is 75.14%, a decrease of 5.66 percentage points from last week [2] - Social inventory of PVC as of October 9 has increased by 5.58% to 1.0363 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [2] Group 2 - Supply and demand pressures remain significant, with both futures and spot prices trending weakly [3] - The demand side shows no significant performance during the peak season, indicating a lack of robust demand from downstream product companies [3] - Cost factors indicate that the price of raw material calcium carbide is expected to rise initially and then fall, while ethylene prices may remain firm [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is stagnant. The main influencing factors include the cost changes of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, supply and demand dynamics, and inventory levels. The PVC2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 4860 - 4922. [8][12] - Bullish factors: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. [11] - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% month - on - month increase. This week, the supply pressure decreased. The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.26%, a 0.76 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, but still below the historical average. The current demand may remain sluggish. [6][9] - **Basis**: On September 23, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 101 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [9] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a 1.20% month - on - month decrease. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a 0.56% month - on - month increase. [9] - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The main positions were net short, and short positions increased. [9] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the scheduled production will increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. [8] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, start - up rates, profits, and costs of different regions and varieties. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 decreased by 0.83% month - on - month to 4790 yuan/ton. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the main contract closing price. [17][18] - **Price and Volume**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from August to September 2025. [21] - **Spread Analysis**: It presents the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method production process. For example, the profit of the calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a 30.80% month - on - month increase in losses. [6][35] - **Supply Trend**: The current capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method enterprises is 76.96%, a 0.04 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 328,605 tons, a 3.14% month - on - month decrease, and that of ethylene method enterprises was 132,310 tons, a 5.16% month - on - month decrease. [6] - **Demand Trend**: It shows the downstream start - up rates of PVC, such as the profile start - up rate of 39.43%, a 0.21 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, and the pipe start - up rate of 39.13%, a 0.52 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. [9] - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days. [60][61] - **Ethylene Method**: It presents data on imports of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads in the ethylene method. [63] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including imports, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and exports. [66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - V2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 4999 yuan/ton. This week, the restart of maintenance devices is expected to increase production and capacity utilization, while more PVC production plans in August will add long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak real estate market drags down domestic demand, and the Indian anti - dumping policy will exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction and put pressure on prices. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4900 and the pressure around 5100 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 736,194 lots, a decrease of 351,932 lots; the open interest was 1,057,318 lots, an increase of 49,158 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 853,070 lots, an increase of 1,523 lots; the short position was 934,697 lots, an increase of 19,110 lots; the net long position was - 81,627 lots, a decrease of 17,587 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5040 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4790.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.46 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4985 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4891.88 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 725 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 229 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2573.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2398 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.61%, a decrease of 2.72%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 76.81%, a decrease of 3.15%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.59%, a decrease of 1.67%. The total social inventory of PVC was 508,000 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons. The total inventory in the East China region was 450,200 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 57,800 tons, an increase of 200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, an increase of 54.0957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 281.0593 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3043 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 12.24%, a decrease of 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 21.67%, a decrease of 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.2%, a decrease of 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.21%, a decrease of 0.01% [3] 3.7 Industry News - On August 26, the market price of PVCSG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou was 0 - 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, ranging from 4740 to 4840 yuan/ton. From August 16 to August 22, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a decrease of 2.72% from the previous period. As of August 21, PVC social inventory increased by 5.09% to 852,700 tons month - on - month and decreased by 6.50% year - on - year [3]

Group 1 - The global PVC market is facing challenges in the second half of 2025 due to demand growth not keeping pace with capacity expansion, particularly in Asia [2] - The impact of US tariffs on PVC products is exacerbating the weak fundamentals of the PVC market [2] - India's PVC market is under scrutiny due to delayed import certification requirements and an impending anti-dumping tax investigation, which may alter regional trade flows [2][3] Group 2 - In Asia, PVC production capacity continues to increase despite weak demand, leading manufacturers to consider reducing operating rates to address oversupply [3] - The postponement of BIS certification in India may lead to a potential recovery in PVC demand, but there are mixed opinions on its impact on pricing and trade flows [3] - Qatar's new PVC plant is expected to start production in September, with Europe likely being the main export market due to higher profit margins compared to India [3] Group 3 - The European PVC market may see more shutdowns in the second half of 2025 due to persistent weak demand and competitive import prices, particularly affecting smaller, less integrated PVC plants [4] - Germany may show positive signs with a government commitment of €500 billion for infrastructure and climate transition, which could boost PVC demand [4] - Traders are expected to continue exporting Asian goods to Europe, with Italy and Spain remaining key markets for Asian supplies [4] Group 4 - The US PVC market outlook is mixed, facing challenges from strong Asian price competition and a sluggish domestic housing market [5] - The export prices of PVC from Asia and the US are closely aligned, leading to direct competition in the global import market [5] - Brazil's import tariffs have shifted the competitive landscape, resulting in decreased export volumes from both the US and Asia [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is bullish, while for PVC it is bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The current core driver of the caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. With the increasing rigid demand and inventory - building demand from alumina, especially the expected 3.6 million - ton alumina capacity to be put into production in Guangxi by the end of this year, the supply of caustic soda in Guangxi is tight. The export support is still strong, and the downstream peak - season restocking is likely to drive the spot price upwards. Although the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC may limit the overall industry profit expansion, the overall view is to maintain a bullish attitude [5] - **PVC**: In 2025, the high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future. The export market competition pressure increases, and the domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak. The anti - dumping tax from India will limit the export to India, and the market will continue to short PVC profits. The overall trend is bearish [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - **Caustic Soda**: The supply side shows that the average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The demand side is strong, with alumina having high production willingness and strong demand for caustic soda. The export support is also strong. The overall view is to maintain a bullish attitude, with specific strategies including holding long positions in contracts 10 and 11, conducting positive spreads in 10 - 1 and 11 - 1, and going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [5] - **PVC**: The high - production situation is difficult to change in the short term, and there will be new capacity put into production in the future. The export market competition pressure increases, and the domestic demand related to real estate is weak. The anti - dumping tax from India will limit exports. The overall trend is bearish, with strategies including shorting on rallies, not participating in inter - period spreads, and going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [7] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,562 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 09 changes little, and the 10 - 1 month spread is strong. The export market still has support, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 reaching 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The regional arbitrage space is limited, but attention should be paid to the continuous expansion of the flake caustic - liquid caustic spread. The 50% - 32% caustic soda spread is lower than the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [10][16][22] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory, with a strong structure. The average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 18.61%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from August to September. The actual capacity expansion of caustic soda in 2025 will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. The cost side of caustic soda changes greatly, and the recent rebound of liquid chlorine leads to a good overall profit situation [39][40][42] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina shows an increase in production, inventory, and stable profits. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production can drive a new round of demand expansion. The pulp industry has continuous capacity expansion, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. The finished paper industry has a low year - on - year start - up rate. The viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, water treatment, and ternary precursor industries all have stable starts [79][86][96] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis fluctuates strongly, and the 9 - 1 month spread fluctuates weakly [109] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC start - up rate increases month - on - month, with great supply pressure. There will be seasonal maintenance in the northwest from August to September 2025, and there is still a lot of new capacity to be put into production. The northwest integrated device has a good profit, and the profit of caustic soda should be particularly concerned in 2025. PVC production enterprises are destocking, while social inventory is accumulating. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the start - up rates of PVC downstream pipes, profiles, and films are generally weak year - on - year. The PVC export is expected to weaken, and a large amount of risk - free arbitrage may lead to a large increase in warehouse receipts in the later stage [113][115][123]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. The fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether subsequent exports can exceed expectations to reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern. In the short term, prices have fallen sharply after the anti - involution sentiment subsided. In the medium term, if there is no policy for device clearance, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry still faces the pressure of de - valuing to clear excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 90 yuan/ton; Shandong calcium carbide is 2,780 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 75 yuan/ton; and Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 620 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration first soared and then declined, and the profit from ethylene production remained low, with weak valuation support [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.5%, a monthly increase of 2%. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 78.7%, a monthly decrease of 2.2%, and the ethylene method is 81.5%, a monthly increase of 13%. Last month, the maintenance volume was high, and the average capacity utilization rate was lower than that in June, with reduced supply pressure. This month, the maintenance intensity is lower than last month, and the newly - put - into - production devices are gradually releasing output, so the supply pressure is expected to increase significantly [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, there was a high export growth rate in the first five months. In June, with the rainy season in Southeast Asia and the uncertainty of export policies to India, overall exports declined significantly. Currently, both India's BIS policy and anti - dumping policy have been extended, improving the weak outlook for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries stopped falling and rebounded. The pipe load is 32.1%, a monthly decrease of 7.4%; the film load is 76.9%, a monthly increase of 4.7%; the profile load is 36.9%, a monthly increase of 2.2%. The overall downstream load is 42.9%, the same as last month. The overall downstream performance is worse than the same period last year, and the overall demand is weak. The main incremental demand depends on exports [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, the in - factory inventory was 33.7 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.9 tons; the social inventory was 77.7 tons, a monthly increase of 18.5 tons; the overall inventory was 111.4 tons, a monthly increase of 13.6 tons; and the warehouse receipts continued to rise. Currently, it has entered the inventory accumulation cycle, and the upstream inventory is gradually transferred to the middle - stream. In the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, if the export end does not perform better than expected, inventory accumulation will continue [11]. 3.2 Cost End - The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai is 2,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 90 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide in Shandong is 2,780 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 75 yuan/ton; and the price of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 620 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The semi - coke price has stabilized, and caustic soda is weak [11][49]. 3.3 Supply End - In 2025, the capacity investment in the PVC industry is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. New capacity of 250 tons/year is expected to be put into production, including 100 tons/year of ethylene - based and 150 tons/year of calcium - carbide - based. The newly - put - into - production devices include those of Xinsheng Chemical, Jintai Chemical, Wanhua Chemical (Phase II), Tianjin Bohua, Zhejiang Jiahua, Qingdao Gulf, and Gansu Yaowang [58][63]. 3.4 Demand End - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) of PVC stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, there was a high growth rate in the first five months, but it declined significantly in June. With the extension of India's anti - dumping policy, there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The overall downstream demand is weak, and the main incremental demand depends on exports [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected production schedule is likely to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4988 - 5104. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [7][8][9]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Base Spread**: On August 7th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 66 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 34534 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 26919 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.12%, and the ethylene factory inventory was 7615 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85%. The social inventory was 44800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.91%. The inventory days of production enterprises was 5.8 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.33%, all indicating a bearish situation [10]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, indicating a bearish signal [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - In July 2025, the PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 32458 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06%, while the production of ethylene enterprises was 12770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.82%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [7]. Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.169 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 77%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.25 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 20.9487 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction of losses by 84.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 478.9958 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction of losses by 5.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2673.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 2.00%, higher than the historical average. The production schedule may increase [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand with high valuations. Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a high point for the year, but the valuation pressure is significant. In the short term, there is an expectation of supply reduction due to anti - involution and a rebound in the black building materials sector, but there is a risk of a sharp decline after the sentiment fades. In the medium term, the industry is suppressed by large - scale capacity growth and continuous decline in real estate demand. It needs to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the excess domestic production capacity [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is reported at 2,225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is at 585 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has risen to a high point for the year, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to rebound, but the valuation support is currently weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.8%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.3%, a 0.5% decrease, and the ethylene method is 70.3%, a 1.7% decrease. The supply load decreased last week due to the maintenance of several enterprises, and it is expected to recover next week. There were more maintenance operations in July than in June, but the supply pressure remains high, and the pressure of new device production in the third quarter is large [11]. - **Demand**: India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the weak export pressure in the third quarter, with an expectation of pre - tariff export rush. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have rebounded this week. The overall downstream load is 41.9%, a 1.8% increase from the previous period, but still weak compared to the same period last year. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 795,000 tons, a 99,000 - ton increase from the previous period [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 357,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the social inventory was 683,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous period; the overall inventory was 1.04 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts has increased. In the future, under the pattern of strong domestic supply and weak demand, the supply - demand situation will turn to inventory accumulation, and it is necessary to observe whether the export is better than expected [11]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure. The maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of devices will be put into production. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and still in the off - season. The cost support is weakening. In the medium term, the industry is suppressed by capacity growth and real - estate demand decline. Overall, the fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether the subsequent export can reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot markets, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 9 - 1 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [16][19][24][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has recovered to a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure [37]. - **Inventory**: The report shows multiple charts of PVC inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium - carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [31][34][36]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices are falling and inventory is accumulating. The report presents charts of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Lanzhou semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda price in Shandong, liquid chlorine price in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2021 to 2025 [44][45][48]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year, including several enterprises such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) [57][62]. - The report shows charts of PVC historical capacity trends, 2025 PVC production capacity, and raw materials consumed by 2025 PVC production [58][60][63]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have rebounded. The export volume and pre - sales volume have also increased to some extent. India's anti - dumping policy extension may lead to an export rush at the end of the rainy season [11]. - The report presents charts of PVC downstream operating rates (including profiles, films, and pipes), export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and China's housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year from 2021 to 2025 [73][81][86].