反内卷情绪高涨， 印度反倾销延期 PVC周报 2025/07/26 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2225元/吨，周同比下跌25元/吨；山东电石价格报2780元/吨，周同比下跌45元/吨；兰炭陕西中料585元/吨，周 同比持平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润上升至年内高点，乙烯制利润持续反弹，目前估值支撑较弱。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率76.8%，环比下降0.8%；其中电石法79.3%，环比下降0.5%；乙烯法70.3%，环比下降1.7%。上周供应端负荷下降，主因 鄂尔多斯氯碱、伊东东兴、中泰阜康、新浦化学检修，下周预期负荷回升。7月检修相对6月增加，但供应压力依旧较大，新装置方面三季度 投产压力较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面印度反倾销政策延期至9月底，三季度弱出口的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint PVC price is under pressure due to weak supply - demand situation after the digestion of previous macro - positive factors. V2509 is expected to pay attention to the support around 4870 yuan/ton on the daily K - line [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4955 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the trading volume is 777,706 lots, down 41,330 lots; the open interest is 966,325 lots, down 16,216 lots [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 790,748 lots, down 4,809 lots; the short position is 806,539 lots, down 8,301 lots; the net long position is - 15,791 lots, up 3,492 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4855.38 yuan/ton, down 13.08 yuan [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4960 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4863.75 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 94 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2621.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. - The CFR middle price of VCM in the Far East is 503 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 548 US dollars/ton, down 16 US dollars [3]. - The CFR middle price of EDC in the Far East is 211 US dollars/ton, up 27 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 219 US dollars/ton, up 31 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, down 1.59 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, up 2.48 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, up 1.96 tons; the inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, up 1.95 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.29 tons, up 0.01 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.14 [3]. - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23,183.61 million square meters, up 5,347.77 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 625,019.54 million square meters, up 4,704.49 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, up 4281.68 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.18%, up 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.89%, unchanged [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 19.73%, down 0.95 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 17, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou remained stable at 4810 - 4890 yuan/ton [3]. - From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous period [3]. - As of July 17, the large - sample statistical social inventory of PVC increased by 5.42% to 65.73 tons month - on - month, and decreased by 31.15% year - on - year [3]. 3.8 Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis - Supply: Last week, PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.47% to 76.97%. In July, domestic PVC plants are under centralized maintenance. Yidongdongxing's 300,000 - ton plant is planned to stop for maintenance this week, and some previously shut - down plants will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise month - on - month. The trial operation of new plants of Bohua and Wanhua will increase the medium - and long - term supply pressure on the industry [3]. - Demand: It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month [3]. - Cost: There is still uncertainty about calcium carbide production restrictions in Inner Mongolia. Due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports to China, domestic ethylene supply tends to be loose, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC may continue to decline in the short term [3].