交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年3月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2026年1月PVC产量为214.863万吨，环比增加0.53%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为82.08%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.157万吨，环比减少0.32%,乙烯法企业产 量15.096万吨，环比增加0.80%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 1、基本面: 偏空。 价格价格不占优势；当前需求或持续低迷。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-438.73元/吨，亏损环比减少26.00%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为 11.19元/吨，利润环比减少90.00%，低于历史平均水平；双吨价差为2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨，环比增加2.79%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为78.93%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.716万吨，环比增加 0.73%,乙烯法企业产量13.611万吨，环比减少0.96%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检 修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.75%，环比减少0.10个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游 型材开工率为31.52%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37%，环比持平，高 于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为65.71%，环 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨，环比增加2.79%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为78.74%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.465万吨，环比增加0.03%,乙烯法 企业产量13.743万吨，环比减少3.86%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排 产少量增加。 利多：供应复产，电石，乙烯成本支撑；出口利好。 利空：总体供应压力反弹；库存持续高位，消耗缓慢；内外需疲弱。 主要逻辑：供应总体压力强势，国内需求复苏不畅。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.86%，环比增加.950个百分点，高于 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月24日 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为45.39%，环比减少3.5个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为31.43%，环比减少3.7个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.6%，环比持平，高于历史 平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为67.14%，环比减少6.79个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开工率 为81.36%，环比持平.高于历史平均水平；船运费用看跌；国内PVC出口价格价格占优；当前需求或持续 低迷。 1、基本面: 中性。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-986.28元/吨，亏损环比减少10.00%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为- 469.36元/吨，亏损环比减少9.00%，低于历史平均水平；双吨价差为1967.55元/吨，利润环比增加 5.60%，低于历史平均水平，排产或将承压。 2、基差: 12月23日，华东SG-5价为4500元/吨，05合约基差为-238元/吨，现货贴水期货。 偏空。 3、库存: 厂内库存为32.8515万吨，环比减少4.58%，电石法厂库为24.5315万吨，环比减少5.83%，乙烯法厂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - **Main Logic**: The overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. - **Expected Price Range**: PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate between 4283 - 4347 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - **Main Logic**: The overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, PVC production was 2.07926 million tons, a 2.29% month - on - month decrease. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.43%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide - method enterprise production was 343,760 tons, a 3.21% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene - method enterprise production was 145,310 tons, a 7.43% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in production scheduling [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 48.89%, a 0.18 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 35.13%, a 0.73 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 37.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 73.93%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 81.36%, a 0.05 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand may remain weak [7]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 1102.13 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month loss increase of 8.10%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 520.44 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month loss increase of 10.10%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1609.15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - **Basis**: On December 15, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4380 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 203 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 344,305 tons, a 5.66% month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide - method factory inventory was 260,505 tons, a 6.35% month - on - month increase. Ethylene - method factory inventory was 83,800 tons, a 3.58% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 517,400 tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.45 days, a 1.30% month - on - month increase [9]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9]. - **Expectation**: Calcium carbide - method costs and ethylene - method costs are weakening, and overall costs are weakening. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in production scheduling. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including various indicators such as prices, price differences, inventory, and operating rates of different types of PVC products and enterprises [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [19]. - **Futures Market**: It includes the price, trading volume, and position trends of PVC futures, as well as the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [22]. - **Spread Analysis**: The report shows the spread trends of the main contracts, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [25]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - Coke**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of semi - coke [28]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [31]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It includes the price, production, and monthly production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [34]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of caustic soda [36][38]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It includes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production trends of calcium carbide - method and ethylene - method PVC [40][42]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products of PVC, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area data [45][48][54]. - **Inventory**: It includes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - method factory inventory, ethylene - method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC [58]. - **Ethylene Method**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference of the ethylene method, and import price difference of vinyl chloride [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [63].

1 每日观点 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为80.75%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量34.535万吨，环比增加4.89%,乙烯法企业产 量14.677万吨，环比减少0.63%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.6%，环比减少0.93个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为37.61%，环比减少0.21个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为39.4%，环比减少2.6个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为71.79%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开工 率为78.06%，环比增加.370个百分点，高于历 ...

每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.69%，环比减少0.07个百分点；电石法企业产量31.772万吨，环比减少9.92%,乙烯法企业产量 14.966万吨，环比减少0.78%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.59%，环比增加.38个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率为 33.26%，环比增加7.39个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40%，环比增加.17个百分点， 低于历史平均水平；下游 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为82.63%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量35.272万吨，环比增 加0.70%,乙烯法企业产量15.084万吨，环比增加4.06%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计 检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为39.21%，环比减少8.55个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下 游型材开工率为15.87%，环比减少23.0个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 32.83%，环比减少7.6个百分点，低于历史平均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely positive factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [11]. - **Likely negative factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. - **Main logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [12]. - **Expected performance**: PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4899 - 4969 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Positive factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [11]. - **Negative factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. - **Main logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Fundamentals - **Supply side**: In June 2025, PVC production was 1.99134 million tons, a 1.40% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 338,190 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene method enterprise production was 114,390 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly to 34.55%, a 0.20 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average [6]. - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 41.11%, a 1.77 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate, pipe operating rate, and paste resin operating rate all decreased to varying degrees, while the film operating rate remained flat [6][9]. - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 445.08 yuan/ton, with a 19.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 620.57 yuan/ton, with a 10.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,610.35 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% month - on - month profit reduction, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Comprehensive judgment**: The fundamentals are neutral [6]. 3.2.2 Basis On July 16, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Factory inventory was 381,590 tons, a 1.21% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 296,790 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene method factory inventory was 84,800 tons, a 0.22% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% month - on - month increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 6.18 days, a 0.32% month - on - month decrease. It is neutral [8]. 3.2.4 Disk MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish [8]. 3.2.5 Main Position The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - **Yesterday's market overview**: The report provides data on various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, regional prices, downstream operating rates, and costs, showing different degrees of price changes and operating rate fluctuations [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price [17][18]. - **Futures price and trading volume**: The report shows the trend chart of the PVC futures main contract price and trading volume, including information such as opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages [20][21]. - **Spread analysis**: The report presents the spread analysis chart of the PVC futures main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - **Lancoke**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of Lancoke [26][27]. - **Calcium carbide**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and maintenance loss trends of calcium carbide [29][30]. - **Liquid chlorine and raw salt**: The report shows the price, production, and inventory trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [31][32]. - **Caustic soda**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, and consumption trends of caustic soda [34][35][37][38]. - **Chlor - alkali**: The report shows the cost - profit, caustic soda apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of chlor - alkali [37][38]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply Trends - **Capacity utilization rate**: The report shows the trends of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rates, as well as the profit trends of calcium carbide method and ethylene method [39][40][42]. - **Production and maintenance volume**: The report shows the trends of PVC daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of sample enterprises [42]. 3.5.3 Demand Trends - **Trading volume and pre - sales volume**: The report shows the trends of PVC daily trading volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate [44][45][47]. - **Downstream operating rates**: The report shows the operating rate trends of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin [49]. - **Paste resin**: The report shows the profit, cost, production, and apparent consumption trends of paste resin [51]. - **Real estate and infrastructure**: The report shows the trends of real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [54][55][58]. 3.5.4 Inventory The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [59][60]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method The report shows the trends of vinyl chloride imports, dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread [61][62]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including data on exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports [64][65].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 PVC：短期不宜追空 | 陈嘉昕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 9-1月差 | | 4745 | 4670 | -75 | -24 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 以华东常州市场为基准，今日华东地区电石法五型现汇库提价格在 4670 元/吨，环比前一交易日跌 10 元/吨。国内 PVC 现货市场价格维持小区间震荡，现货一口价表现坚挺，盘面价格小空间震荡，实盘成交重 心依然偏低，基本面供应增长预期不变，需求未有改善，市场成交承压，华东地区电石法五型在 4620-4750 元/吨，乙烯法在 4850-5100 元/吨。。 【市场状况分析】 基本面看，当前西北氯碱一体化仍有利润，PVC 高产量，高库存的结构难以缓解。市场持续做空氯碱利 润，导致 PVC 期货价格创年内新低。不过由于 PVC ...