交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 3 每日观点 。 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.43%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.376万吨，环比减少3.21%,乙烯法企业产 量14.531万吨，环比增加7.43%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.89%，环比减少0.18个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.13%，环比减少0.73个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.6%，环比增加.200个百 分点，低于历史 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased downstream demand, reduced export expectations, high inventory, and a sluggish real - estate market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - PVC开工率环比增加2.49个百分点至80.75%，处于近年同期偏高水平，宁波镇洋、内蒙亿利等装置产量提升 [17] - 新增产能方面，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行 [4] - 内蒙三联等生产企业检修即将结束，成本支撑减弱 [4] Demand Side - PVC下游开工率小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期，但仍是偏低水平 [4] - 2025年1 - 9月房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。全国房地产开发投资67706亿元，同比下降13.9%；商品房销售面积65835万平方米，同比下降5.5%；商品房销售额63040亿元，下降7.9%等 [23] - 截至11月9日当周，30大中城市商品房成交面积环比继续回落32.15%，处于近年同期最低水平 [23] Export - 印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30 - 40美元/吨，8月14日印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱，上周出口签单环比回落 [4] Inventory - 截至11月6日当周，PVC社会库存环比增加1.13%至104.16万吨，比去年同期增加26.42%，社会库存小幅增加，目前仍偏高 [24] Market - 目前01基差在 - 51元/吨，基差处于中性偏低水平 [12] - PVC期价跌破前低，市场低迷 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and it is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4738 - 4794 [8][9][13]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [13]. - The main influencing factors include both positive and negative aspects. The positives are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negatives are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **基差**: On October 30, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 26 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The situation is neutral [10]. - **库存**: The in - factory inventory was 33.38 tons, a 7.35% decrease from the previous period. The calcium carbide - method factory inventory was 25.21 tons, a 9.02% decrease, and the ethylene - method factory inventory was 8.17 tons, a 1.80% decrease. The social inventory was 55.47 tons, a 0.26% decrease. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.6 days, a 6.66% decrease. The situation is neutral [10]. - **盘面**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. The situation is neutral [10]. - **主力持仓**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing. The situation is bearish [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Supply - In September 2025, the PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% decrease from the previous month. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.57%, with no change from the previous period. The production of calcium carbide - method enterprises was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% decrease, and the production of ethylene - method enterprises was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% increase. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.86%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 35.87%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 41.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 72.5%, unchanged from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 58.76%, a 2.47 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [8]. Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 1.30% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 1.30% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2373.25 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 2.10% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4738 - 4794 [9]. 3. PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, spreads, operating rates, inventories, and other information of different types of PVC [15][16]. 4. PVC Futures Market - **基差走势**: Relevant charts show the historical trends of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18][19]. - **行情走势**: Charts display the trading volume, price trends, and position changes of PVC futures contracts in 2025 [22]. - **价差分析**: Charts show the historical trends of the spreads of the main contracts [25][26]. 5. PVC Fundamental Analysis Calcium Carbide Method - **兰炭**: Charts show the historical trends of the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of semi - coke [28][29]. - **电石**: Charts show the historical trends of the mainstream price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide [31][32]. - **液氯和原盐**: Charts show the historical trends of the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt [33][34]. - **烧碱**: Charts show the historical trends of the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory of caustic soda [35][36][38]. PVC Supply - Charts show the historical trends of the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC [40][41][44]. Demand - Charts show the historical trends of the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC [46][48]. - Charts show the historical trends of the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin [50]. - Charts show the historical trends of the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin [52]. - Charts show the historical trends of real estate investment completion, housing construction area, new housing starts, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area [54]. - Charts show the historical trends of social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [56]. Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - method factory inventory, ethylene - method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [57][58]. Ethylene Method - Charts show the historical trends of the import volume of vinyl chloride, ethylene dichloride, PVC export volume, FOB price difference of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import price difference [59][60]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [63].