【现货方面】 供应：截止1月4日，国内PX负荷至90.6%，亚洲PX负荷至80.9%。 需求：截止1月4日，独山能源250万吨重启，中泰120万吨重启后低负荷运行，威联化学250万吨装置提 负，PTA负荷在78.1%。 【行情展望】 1月6日，亚洲PX价格大幅反弹。原料端价格反弹，叠加市场传闻个别PX工厂暂无重启计划，一定程度 上提振市场情绪，尾盘窗口内贸易商接货挺价，推动PX价格进一步上涨。现货方面，2、3月现货月差 在-1，2月浮动预估在-3左右，3月现货预计维持在+0/+1左右。尾盘实货2月在898.5/911商谈，3月在 902/911商谈，2/3换月在-5/+5商谈。(单位：美元/吨) 【利润方面】 1月6日，亚洲PX上涨19美元/吨至903美元/吨，折合人民币现货价格7304元/吨；PXN至368美元/吨附 近。 【供需方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 ...

Supply and Demand - The supply of PX has increased, with Asian PX operating rates rising to 87% (+4.9%) and domestic PX rates at 75.1% (+3.1%) [2] - Demand for PTA has also improved, with operating rates around 84%, as several PTA plants are restarting operations [2] Market Outlook - Following the recovery of PX profitability, supply has increased due to delayed maintenance and higher operating rates, leading to a weakening supply-demand balance [3] - Despite the recent pressure on PX prices, strong short-term demand from PTA restarts and new capacity coming online may limit further price declines [3] - The short-term strategy suggests monitoring support around 6400, with potential for price fluctuations, and a focus on short-term spread trades [3] Spot Market - On June 10, Asian PX prices rebounded, with spot prices for July at 815 and August at 813, while paper prices for September were at 800/805 [1] - The cost of PX rose by 9 USD/ton to 817 USD/ton, equivalent to 6765 RMB/ton [1]

Supply and Demand - Asian PX supply has increased, with overall load rising to 69.4% (+1.9%) and domestic PX load reaching 78% (+3.9%) [2] - Demand has seen a decrease, with PTA load dropping to 75.7% (-1.4%) due to the restart of 1 million tons of PTA capacity by Energetic and 1.5 million tons by Taiwan Chemical, while Dushan Energy's 3 million tons facility is under maintenance [2] Market Performance - On May 29, Asian PX prices rose by $16/ton to $852/ton, equivalent to 7061 RMB/ton, with PXN near $282/ton [1] - The current spot market for PX remains strong, with July prices negotiating at +20/+30, August at +13, and September at +10/+17 [1] - The market sentiment is buoyed by reduced tariff risks and rumors of some PTA manufacturers cutting PTA contract volumes due to PX shortages [1][3] Market Outlook - Despite the recent recovery in PX profitability and the gradual restart of previously maintained facilities, there is an expectation of weakening supply-demand dynamics due to downstream polyester production cuts [3] - Short-term PX market remains tight, with upward price movement limited by the anticipated supply-demand shift [3] - Strategies include monitoring pressure above 6800 for PX and looking for opportunities in PX-SC spread trading [3]