| Size & Resolution | | | Technology | Dec.25' | Jan.26'(E) | Differ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 32" | 60Hz | HD | LCD | $32.0 | $33.0 | $1.0 | | 43" | 60Hz | FHD | LCD | $64.0 | $65.0 | $1.0 | | 50" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $86.0 | $87.0 | $1.0 | | ਟੇ | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $108.0 | $109.0 | $1.0 | | ୧୮." | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $163.0 | $164.0 | $1.0 | | 75" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $218.0 | $218.0 | $0.0 | | 85" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $285.0 | $285.0 | $0.0 | | 98"/100" 120 /144 Hz | | UD | LCD | $430.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery of demand in the TV display panel market due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and domestic subsidy measures, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in panel prices in early 2023 [5][6]. Demand Side Summary - In late 2022, demand for TV panels increased as brands prepared for international events like the World Cup, resulting in a narrowing of price declines for 32" to 85" panels, while prices for 98"/100" panels continued to decline due to weak demand [6]. - In January 2023, the continuation of the domestic subsidy policy for consumer electronics, particularly for energy-efficient products, is expected to support the market and lead to a gradual price recovery for 32" to 65" panels [6][9]. Supply Side Summary - Panel manufacturers are responding to the increased demand by raising production capacity utilization rates, with global high-generation line utilization reaching an estimated 82.4% in December 2022, a significant year-on-year increase of over 5 percentage points [7]. - In January 2023, the average utilization rate is expected to remain above 82%, driven by the need to fulfill concentrated orders and prepare inventory ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [8]. Price Dynamics Summary - In January 2023, the overall price of LCD TV panels is expected to stabilize and rise slightly, with most mainstream sizes projected to increase by $1, while prices for 75" and 85" panels are expected to remain stable at $218 and $285, respectively [9]. - The price for 98"/100" panels is anticipated to decrease further, but the decline is expected to narrow to $5, bringing the price down to $425 [9].

Summary of Panel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The panel industry is experiencing a mixed demand situation, with brand manufacturers maintaining high procurement levels despite declining sales data. In Q4, procurement in mainland China is expected to remain flat year-on-year at 23 million units, indicating positive market demand expectations despite inventory accumulation [1][3] - The global panel shipment volume is projected to reach 246 to 247 million units in 2025, with a slight increase expected in 2026. The overall shipment area is anticipated to grow by approximately 2%, driven by sustained high levels of small and medium-sized panel shipments [1][6] Key Insights and Arguments - **Demand Drivers**: Several factors are expected to positively influence demand in the first half of next year, including potential continuation of subsidy policies in mainland China, promotional events like the 618 shopping festival, and international events such as the World Cup and Winter Olympics. If the U.S. government issues additional subsidies, consumer demand could be further stimulated [1][4] - **Price Trends**: Panel manufacturers believe current prices are near the bottom, leading to price increases starting in November. Smaller clients are already feeling the pressure, while larger clients are expected to negotiate price increases in January. The ability of panel manufacturers to coordinate production during the Chinese New Year will significantly impact price increases in Q1 [1][4] - **Supply and Production Rates**: The current supply-demand situation in the LCD market shows a slight oversupply, with an excess rate of 13%-14% without considering capacity depreciation, and 11%-12% when accounting for it. The trend towards larger sizes and the retirement of older generations may lead to a tightening of LCD capacity in the next two to three years [3][15] Additional Important Points - **Inventory Management**: Brand manufacturers are expected to increase procurement in December and January to avoid supply shortages due to delayed factory operations after the late Chinese New Year. This procurement peak is anticipated to last until April or early May [1][4] - **Market Segmentation**: The demand for large and ultra-large televisions (65, 75, 85, 98, and 100 inches) remains strong, particularly in North America where prices are very competitive. The average price for a 100-inch TV is below $1,000, making these products attractive to consumers [7][8] - **Regional Performance**: By the end of 2025, the average screen size in North America is expected to reach 52 inches, while mainland China could see an average of 63 inches. Other regions like Southeast Asia and Oceania are projected to have average sizes around 45 inches [9] - **Profitability Challenges**: Current low panel prices are making it difficult for hardware manufacturers to achieve profitability. Rising costs of other raw materials are increasing overall production costs, leading many manufacturers to rely on software platforms for advertising revenue to offset hardware losses [5] Conclusion - The panel industry is navigating a complex landscape with mixed demand signals and pricing pressures. While there are positive indicators for future demand, particularly for large screens, manufacturers must carefully manage production and inventory to optimize profitability in a challenging market environment.

CINNO Research发文称，今年11月，伴随国内外旺季备货期结束，面板需求进一步回落，而供应仍相对宽松，推动面板价格持续下行。进入12月，北美市 场需求逐渐释放，带动短期需求回暖，但由于整体产能平均稼动率仍维持较高水位，预计中小尺寸面板价格将逐步企稳，而大尺寸面板价格则延续下跌趋 势。 12月以来，国内市场因季节性备货结束而需求放缓，海外市场则在2026年世界杯等体育赛事预期及头部品牌年底冲量采购的推动下，表现出一定需求韧性， 带动短期整体市场回暖。面板厂在10月主动调控产能后，近期迎来订单阶段性增加，预计将维持较高产能利用率生产。在供需环境整体仍较宽松的背景下， 部分LCD TV面板价格有望逐步止跌，但全面反弹动力不足。 从需求端来看，面板市场在经历国内外旺季备货期后，11月整体需求已显现疲软，除32"与43"小尺寸面板价格保持稳定外，其余尺寸价格均延续下跌态势。 进入12月，受部分品牌商为明年国际体育赛事启动提前采购带动，中小尺寸面板需求获得阶段性支撑，预计价格逐步趋于稳定。反观国内市场，由于"国 补"政策尚未明确延续，终端厂商对明年一季度传统淡季的预期仍偏保守，并未开展大规模备货，因此大尺寸面板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The panel market is experiencing a decline in demand following the end of the peak stocking period, with supply remaining relatively loose, leading to a continued decrease in panel prices [2][5][6]. Demand Analysis - In November, overall demand in the panel market showed signs of fatigue, with prices for most sizes continuing to decline, except for the 32" and 43" panels which remained stable [5][6]. - Entering December, demand for small to medium-sized panels received temporary support due to early procurement by brands in anticipation of international sports events, while large-sized panels continued to face weak demand [5][6]. - The domestic market remains cautious due to unclear policies regarding "national subsidies," leading to conservative stocking expectations for the first quarter of the next year [5][6]. Supply Analysis - In November, the industry saw a rebound in average utilization rates to approximately 80.5%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, as panel manufacturers adjusted production in response to demand fluctuations [6]. - Despite the overall supply environment being relatively loose, major panel manufacturers are expected to maintain high production levels in December to meet orders from the North American market, keeping utilization rates above 80% [6][7]. Price Trends - Price forecasts for December indicate a divergence in the LCD TV panel market, with 32" and 43" panels expected to remain at $32 and $64 respectively, while prices for 50" and 55" panels are projected to stabilize at $86 and $107 [7]. - Larger panels, such as 65", 75", and 85", are anticipated to see slight declines of $1 to $2, with prices expected to reach $161, $216, and $282 respectively; the 98"/100" panels are expected to drop by $10 to $430 due to insufficient demand [7].

Group 1 - The overall demand for panels is expected to decline in Q4, with manufacturers stabilizing mainstream size prices through coordinated production control [1] - The impact of domestic subsidy policies on the market is limited, and the easing of US-China tariff tensions may slow down the pre-stocking pace, leading to further weakening of short-term demand [1] - Panel prices are anticipated to enter a downward channel in November due to multiple factors, including the inability to maintain a unified production control rhythm among manufacturers [1] Group 2 - In October, as pre-stocking neared completion, order volumes gradually decreased, resulting in a 7.8% month-on-month decline in LCD TV panel shipments [2] - Major panel manufacturers responded quickly by controlling production capacity, maintaining an average utilization rate of around 75% for high-generation lines [2] - The average utilization rate is expected to remain around 80% in Q4, leading to ongoing supply-demand dynamics despite efforts to stabilize prices [2] Group 3 - In November, the overall demand for LCD TV panels is expected to weaken, with most panel sizes entering a general price decline [2] - Specific price forecasts for November indicate that 32" and 43" panel prices are expected to remain stable at $32 and $64 respectively, while mainstream sizes from 50" to 85" are projected to decline by $2 [2] - Ultra-large size panels (98"/100") are expected to see significant price drops, projected to decrease by $10 to around $440 [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic TV market in China experienced a 10% year-on-year decline in sales volume in Q2, primarily due to the suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces and cities. However, demand is expected to recover moderately in August as subsidy funds are fully allocated and brands prepare for the peak season [3][4]. Group 1: Demand Side Analysis - In July, the end of the 618 shopping festival and a funding gap in the "trade-in" subsidy program led to weakened terminal demand. However, as August approaches, traditional stocking season is near, and brands have significantly reduced inventory, enhancing stocking momentum [4]. - The third batch of 690 billion yuan "trade-in" special bonds was fully allocated on August 1, with a fourth batch of the same amount expected to be released in October, which is likely to boost demand in the second half of the year [4]. - The extension of tariffs by the U.S. on China and Mexico for an additional 90 days has alleviated pressure on overseas demand [4]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - In July, the average operating rate of high-generation LCD TV panel production lines was approximately 78%, a decrease of only 2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [5]. - The G8.6 production line, which is the main production control line, saw a reduction of about 5 percentage points, which may help stabilize prices for ultra-large panels of 85 inches and above [5]. - In August, brand stocking demand is expected to recover, with the operating rate anticipated to rise to around 80%, and panel shipments are projected to increase by 7% year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Price Trends - Overall demand for panels in August is expected to remain weak, with prices continuing to decline but showing signs of differentiation. The price for the mainstream 32-inch panel is expected to stabilize at $32, while prices for medium to large panels may see a decline of $1 to $4 compared to July [6]. - The expected prices for various panel sizes in August are as follows: 43-inch at $63, 50-inch at $87, 65-inch at $113, 75-inch at $165, and 85-inch at $220 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The panel prices are expected to decline in July 2025, particularly for TV panels, while monitor and laptop panel prices are anticipated to remain stable [3][4][6]. Group 1: TV Panels - Demand for TV panels remains weak, leading some brand clients to adjust their procurement orders for Q3 while negotiating better prices with panel manufacturers [3][4]. - The forecast indicates a price drop of $1 for 32-inch and 43-inch panels, and a $2 drop for 50-inch, 55-inch, 65-inch, and 75-inch panels [4]. Group 2: Monitor Panels - The demand for monitor panels has also shown signs of slowing down, with only a few specifications experiencing slight supply shortages [4]. - The overall price trend for monitor panels is expected to stabilize, influenced by the declining prices of TV panels [4]. Group 3: Laptop Panels - There is a slight increase in optimism regarding the demand for laptop panels, with brand clients becoming more proactive in negotiations for better pricing [6]. - The overall price for laptop panels is expected to remain stable in July, with future price movements dependent on negotiations between brand clients and manufacturers [6].