面板行业专家会议 20251210 摘要 品牌厂商第三季度维持高位采购，中国大陆厂商第四季度采购量与去年 持平，达 2,300 万片，反映出厂商对未来市场需求的积极预期，尽管当 前终端销售数据并不理想，库存有所积累。 明年上半年需求端存在多重利好因素，包括中国大陆补贴政策可能延续、 618 购物节促销以及海外市场世界杯、冬奥会等事件刺激，若美国政府 再次发放补贴，将进一步提振消费需求，预计需求将保持强劲。 春节假期较晚导致工厂复工延迟，品牌厂商可能提前在 12 月和 1 月进 行采购，预计采购高峰将持续至明年 4 月或 5 月初，需关注春节期间面 板厂是否能协调一致控制产量，这将直接影响一季度价格上涨幅度。 面板厂认为当前价格已接近底线，自 11 月起开始涨价，小客户已感受 到压力，大客户将在 1 月开始协商涨价。面板厂稼动率偏高，品牌厂库 存增加，春节期间面板厂是否能够一致行动控制产量，将决定价格上涨 幅度。 2025 年全球面板出货量预计为 2.46 亿至 2.47 亿片，2026 年可能略 有增长，出货面积预计增长 2%左右，中小尺寸面板出货维持较高水平， 平均尺寸增长并不显著，2025 年底全球平均尺 ...

CINNO Research发文称，今年11月，伴随国内外旺季备货期结束，面板需求进一步回落，而供应仍相对宽松，推动面板价格持续下行。进入12月，北美市 场需求逐渐释放，带动短期需求回暖，但由于整体产能平均稼动率仍维持较高水位，预计中小尺寸面板价格将逐步企稳，而大尺寸面板价格则延续下跌趋 势。 12月以来，国内市场因季节性备货结束而需求放缓，海外市场则在2026年世界杯等体育赛事预期及头部品牌年底冲量采购的推动下，表现出一定需求韧性， 带动短期整体市场回暖。面板厂在10月主动调控产能后，近期迎来订单阶段性增加，预计将维持较高产能利用率生产。在供需环境整体仍较宽松的背景下， 部分LCD TV面板价格有望逐步止跌，但全面反弹动力不足。 从需求端来看，面板市场在经历国内外旺季备货期后，11月整体需求已显现疲软，除32"与43"小尺寸面板价格保持稳定外，其余尺寸价格均延续下跌态势。 进入12月，受部分品牌商为明年国际体育赛事启动提前采购带动，中小尺寸面板需求获得阶段性支撑，预计价格逐步趋于稳定。反观国内市场，由于"国 补"政策尚未明确延续，终端厂商对明年一季度传统淡季的预期仍偏保守，并未开展大规模备货，因此大尺寸面板 ...

" 今 年 11 月 ， 伴 随 国 内 外 旺 季 备 货 期 结 束 ， 面 板 需 求 进 一 步 回 落 ， 而 供 应 仍 相 对 宽 松 ， 推 动 面 板 价 格 持 续 下 行 。 进 入 12 月 ， 北 美 市 场 需 求 逐 渐 释 放 ， 带 动 短 期 需 求 回 暖 ， 但 由 于 整 体 产 能 平 均 稼 动 率 仍 维 持 较 高水位，预计中小尺寸面板价格将逐步企稳，而大尺寸面板价格则延续下跌趋势。 " | Size & Resolution | | | Technology | Nov.25' | Dec.25'(E) | Differ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 32" 60Hz | | HD | LCD | $32.0 | $32.0 | $0.0 | | 43" | 60Hz | FHD | LCD | $64.0 | $64.0 | $0.0 | | 50" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $86.0 | $86.0 | $0.0 | | 55" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $1 ...

Group 1 - The overall demand for panels is expected to decline in Q4, with manufacturers stabilizing mainstream size prices through coordinated production control [1] - The impact of domestic subsidy policies on the market is limited, and the easing of US-China tariff tensions may slow down the pre-stocking pace, leading to further weakening of short-term demand [1] - Panel prices are anticipated to enter a downward channel in November due to multiple factors, including the inability to maintain a unified production control rhythm among manufacturers [1] Group 2 - In October, as pre-stocking neared completion, order volumes gradually decreased, resulting in a 7.8% month-on-month decline in LCD TV panel shipments [2] - Major panel manufacturers responded quickly by controlling production capacity, maintaining an average utilization rate of around 75% for high-generation lines [2] - The average utilization rate is expected to remain around 80% in Q4, leading to ongoing supply-demand dynamics despite efforts to stabilize prices [2] Group 3 - In November, the overall demand for LCD TV panels is expected to weaken, with most panel sizes entering a general price decline [2] - Specific price forecasts for November indicate that 32" and 43" panel prices are expected to remain stable at $32 and $64 respectively, while mainstream sizes from 50" to 85" are projected to decline by $2 [2] - Ultra-large size panels (98"/100") are expected to see significant price drops, projected to decrease by $10 to around $440 [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic TV market in China experienced a 10% year-on-year decline in sales volume in Q2, primarily due to the suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces and cities. However, demand is expected to recover moderately in August as subsidy funds are fully allocated and brands prepare for the peak season [3][4]. Group 1: Demand Side Analysis - In July, the end of the 618 shopping festival and a funding gap in the "trade-in" subsidy program led to weakened terminal demand. However, as August approaches, traditional stocking season is near, and brands have significantly reduced inventory, enhancing stocking momentum [4]. - The third batch of 690 billion yuan "trade-in" special bonds was fully allocated on August 1, with a fourth batch of the same amount expected to be released in October, which is likely to boost demand in the second half of the year [4]. - The extension of tariffs by the U.S. on China and Mexico for an additional 90 days has alleviated pressure on overseas demand [4]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - In July, the average operating rate of high-generation LCD TV panel production lines was approximately 78%, a decrease of only 2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [5]. - The G8.6 production line, which is the main production control line, saw a reduction of about 5 percentage points, which may help stabilize prices for ultra-large panels of 85 inches and above [5]. - In August, brand stocking demand is expected to recover, with the operating rate anticipated to rise to around 80%, and panel shipments are projected to increase by 7% year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Price Trends - Overall demand for panels in August is expected to remain weak, with prices continuing to decline but showing signs of differentiation. The price for the mainstream 32-inch panel is expected to stabilize at $32, while prices for medium to large panels may see a decline of $1 to $4 compared to July [6]. - The expected prices for various panel sizes in August are as follows: 43-inch at $63, 50-inch at $87, 65-inch at $113, 75-inch at $165, and 85-inch at $220 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The panel prices are expected to decline in July 2025, particularly for TV panels, while monitor and laptop panel prices are anticipated to remain stable [3][4][6]. Group 1: TV Panels - Demand for TV panels remains weak, leading some brand clients to adjust their procurement orders for Q3 while negotiating better prices with panel manufacturers [3][4]. - The forecast indicates a price drop of $1 for 32-inch and 43-inch panels, and a $2 drop for 50-inch, 55-inch, 65-inch, and 75-inch panels [4]. Group 2: Monitor Panels - The demand for monitor panels has also shown signs of slowing down, with only a few specifications experiencing slight supply shortages [4]. - The overall price trend for monitor panels is expected to stabilize, influenced by the declining prices of TV panels [4]. Group 3: Laptop Panels - There is a slight increase in optimism regarding the demand for laptop panels, with brand clients becoming more proactive in negotiations for better pricing [6]. - The overall price for laptop panels is expected to remain stable in July, with future price movements dependent on negotiations between brand clients and manufacturers [6].