1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the weakening of ferronickel prices and significant inventory pressure on refined nickel are dragging down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to rise, nickel prices may have limited upside and could even decline further to find a valuation bottom. However, in the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle, combined with China's anti - involution policy, will support nickel prices, and the new RKAB approval in the coming year also presents potential positive factors for nickel prices. Thus, short - term investors are advised to wait and see. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or for those with high risk tolerance, they can consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term price range of the SHFE nickel main contract is expected to be between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M contract between 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource End**: Nickel ore prices in the Philippines are likely to remain stable in the short - term. Despite weakening demand due to falling domestic ferronickel prices, the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas makes mines reluctant to lower prices. In Indonesia, although the overall supply - demand is loose, the upcoming RKAB quota revision and new RKAB submission in 2026 have led smelters to increase stockpiling, limiting the downside of ore prices [11]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel prices have weakened recently. Slow destocking of stainless steel social inventory and limited support from the peak season on stainless steel prices have led to low procurement willingness among steel enterprises, and the market is starting to price in the pessimistic post - peak season fundamentals, with further price drops expected [11]. - **Intermediate Products**: The supply of market - available intermediate products is tight, strengthening sellers' bargaining power. Some traders have raised quotes, and with the peak demand season in downstream industries, enterprises' raw material procurement demand has increased, leading to a strong MHP coefficient price [11]. - **Refined Nickel**: In September, nickel prices fluctuated. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the US economy still showed resilience. In the spot market, trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands remained stable [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Refined Nickel Prices**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased. The LME and SHFE closing prices also declined, while the spot and three - month price ratios increased. The import loss decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged. Nickel plate inventory decreased, while nickel bean inventory increased [16]. - **Nickel Spot Premium**: Domestic refined nickel spot premiums fluctuated. As of October 9, the premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with the average price unchanged [22]. - **Secondary Nickel Prices**: Ferronickel prices were slightly weak, with the domestic high - nickel pig iron ex - factory price at 955 yuan/nickel point on October 10, unchanged from before the holiday. Sulfuric acid nickel prices were slightly strong, with the domestic spot price at 283,200 yuan/ton on October 10, up 60 yuan/ton from before the holiday [26]. 3.3 Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: Domestic port nickel ore inventory continued to increase. As of September 26, the inventory was 1.4094 billion tons, up 0.7% from the previous week. Nickel ore prices remained stable. On October 10, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.7 US dollars/wet ton, up 0.5 US dollars/wet ton from before the holiday, and the price of 1.2% - grade ore was unchanged. The price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore was unchanged [33][36]. - **Ferronickel**: No detailed profit - related analysis was provided in the summary part, but production data charts for Indonesia and China were presented [38]. - **Intermediate Products**: In August, Indonesia's MHP production was 43,000 nickel tons, up 3,000 tons month - on - month, and high - grade nickel matte production was 29,000 nickel tons, up 4,000 tons month - on - month. As of September 26, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 13,598 US dollars/metal ton, with the MHP coefficient to LME nickel unchanged, and the high - grade nickel matte price was the same, with the coefficient up 0.01 [43][48]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's refined nickel production remained at 37,000 tons, at a historically high level [53]. - **Demand**: Data on stainless steel production, social inventory, and terminal demand in manufacturing and real estate were presented, but no specific demand - side conclusions were drawn [55][57]. - **Import and Export**: No specific import - export analysis was provided in the summary part, but relevant data charts were presented [59]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the global visible nickel inventory was 270,000 tons [63]. - **Cost**: Charts on production costs by raw material and profit margins by process were presented, but no specific cost - side conclusions were drawn [65]. 3.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: Charts on China's sulfuric acid nickel production and net imports were presented, but no specific supply - side conclusions were drawn [69]. - **Demand**: Charts on ternary power battery loading volume and China's ternary precursor production were presented, but no specific demand - side conclusions were drawn [72]. - **Cost and Price**: Charts on battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel production costs, prices, and profit margins of main raw materials were presented, but no specific cost - price conclusions were drawn [75]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Supply Outlook**: A chart of global supply outlook was presented, but no specific analysis was provided [79]. - **Quarterly Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: From 2023 to 2025, the total supply generally exceeded the total demand. In 2023, the supply - demand surplus was 82,900 nickel tons; in 2024, it was 27,200 nickel tons; and in 2025, it is expected to be 166,400 nickel tons [80].