Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the short term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down the nickel price. If the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, it is difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. However, in the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main contract price of Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In October, the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, due to increased rainfall and strong price - holding intention of mines, the price is unlikely to fall soon. In Indonesia, the overall supply and demand of pyrometallurgical ore is relatively loose, but the new rule on the approval cycle intensifies the expectation of "ore supply shortage", and smelters are speeding up stockpiling, with the price expected to remain stable or rise slightly. The hydrometallurgical ore market is dull, and the price is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: In October, the ferronickel price was weak due to weak demand. The supply - side profit is squeezed, and the price - holding intention is strong. The demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and steel enterprises are pressing down the price. The demand side dominates the price, and the price is expected to remain weak [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply - demand tightness of the MHP market continues. The supply of MHP spot is limited, and sellers are strongly holding the price. The demand for battery pre - installation due to the subsidy withdrawal in 2026 makes downstream enterprises more accepting of high prices, and the MHP coefficient price remains strong [11]. - **Refined nickel**: In October, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. Macroscopically, although the Sino - US tariff negotiation made progress, the US government shutdown and the Fed's slightly hawkish stance led to a general decline in non - ferrous metal prices after a rise. In the spot market, the output of refined nickel remained high, and inventories continued to accumulate, with the spot premium stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: In October, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. As of November 6, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 119,440 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract was 15,055 US dollars/ton [17]. - **Nickel spot premium**: In October, the spot premium of domestic refined nickel fluctuated strongly. As of November 7, the premium of Russian nickel spot average price to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 3,100 yuan/ton, with the average price up 700 yuan/ton from the previous month [21]. - **Secondary nickel price**: In October, the ferronickel price was weak. As of November 6, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 912 - 921 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 38 yuan/nickel point from the previous month. The sulfuric acid nickel price was relatively strong, and as of November 6, the domestic spot price of sulfuric acid nickel was 28,340 - 28,600 yuan/ton, with the average price basically unchanged from the previous month [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The nickel ore price remained stable with a slight increase. On November 7, the arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.7 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous month; that of 1.2% - grade was 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous month; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore was 58 US dollars/wet ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous month [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the national refined nickel output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from September [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is affected by the stainless - steel industry, manufacturing, and real - estate industries. The inventory of stainless - steel enterprises and the performance of terminal industries have an impact on demand [50]. - **Import and export**: No specific data on import and export changes in October are mentioned, but relevant charts are provided [54]. - **Inventory**: In October, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 30,284 tons to 299,948 tons, with both China and the LME accumulating inventory [58]. 5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: No specific data on supply changes in October are mentioned, but relevant charts on production and net import volume are provided [64]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel is related to the installation volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [67]. - **Cost and price**: Charts on the production cost, price, and profit margin of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel are provided, but no specific data on October are mentioned [70]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides the supply - demand balance data from 2019 to 2025. From 2019 - 2025, the overall supply is greater than the demand, and the supply - demand gap shows an increasing trend year by year [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down the nickel price, which is oscillating at the bottom. If the inventory continues to rise, it's difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. Short - term advice is to wait and see. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main contract of SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In the nickel ore market, the overall trading atmosphere is fair this week. In the Philippines, due to the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas, the mine price is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term. In Indonesia, the new regulation on the approval cycle has accelerated the stockpiling of smelters, and the overall ore price is expected to remain stable or rebound slightly; the wet - process ore market is relatively dull, and the price is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: This week, the game between supply and demand sides of ferronickel intensifies, and the price is weak. The profit of iron plants is squeezed, and they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The demand from stainless - steel enterprises is weak, and they are pressing down on the price of ferronickel. With cost support, the decline space of ferronickel is limited, and attention should be paid to the change in the demand side of stainless steel [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available resources is tight, and the bargaining power of sellers has increased. The downstream industry has entered the peak demand season, and the demand for raw material procurement has been released. The downstream enterprises' acceptance of the high - price MHP has gradually increased, and the MHP coefficient price has remained strong recently [11]. - **Refined nickel**: This week, the nickel price oscillated. Macroeconomic factors such as the US inflation data and Sino - US trade relations have affected market sentiment. The output of refined nickel remains high, and the inventory has continued to accumulate [11]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot market**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased. The spot parity and the three - month parity increased. The import loss decreased. The inventory of LME and SHFE increased, while the bonded - area inventory decreased. The inventory of nickel plates increased, and that of nickel beans decreased [15]. - **Futures market**: The closing prices of LME and SHFE nickel decreased. The LME nickel open interest decreased, and the SHFE nickel open interest increased [15]. - **Nickel spot premium**: The domestic refined - nickel spot premium oscillated. As of October 25, the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 150 yuan/ton compared with last week [23]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The ferronickel price was weak, and the average price of domestic high - nickel pig iron decreased by 7 yuan/nickel point compared with last week. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained stable [27]. 3.3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The price of nickel ore remained stable with a slight increase. On October 24, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - earth nickel ore increased by 0.1 US dollars/wet ton compared with last week, and the price of 1.2% - grade ore remained unchanged. The price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore increased by 1 US dollar/wet ton [36]. - **Ferronickel**: The production profit of ferronickel is under pressure, and the profit situation varies in different regions [38][40]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available resources is tight, and the price and the transaction coefficient are relatively strong [46]. 3.4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In September 2025, the national refined - nickel output remained at 37,000 tons, at a historically high level [51]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is affected by the stainless - steel market and downstream manufacturing and real - estate industries [53][55]. - **Import and export**: No specific data on the current situation of import and export are mentioned, but relevant historical data trends are presented [57]. - **Inventory**: The global visible inventory of nickel increased by 0.17% to 298,550 tons, and both China and LME saw inventory accumulation [61]. - **Cost**: The production cost and profit rate vary by different raw materials and processes [63]. 3.5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: The production and net import volume of sulfuric acid nickel in China are presented through historical data trends [67]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel is related to the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [70]. - **Cost and price**: The production cost and profit rate of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel vary by different raw materials [72]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The global supply and demand of nickel from 2023 to 2025 are forecasted. The total supply is expected to exceed the total demand, and the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in 2025 [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the weakening of ferronickel prices and significant inventory pressure on refined nickel are dragging down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to rise, nickel prices may have limited upside and could even decline further to find a valuation bottom. However, in the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle, combined with China's anti - involution policy, will support nickel prices, and the new RKAB approval in the coming year also presents potential positive factors for nickel prices. Thus, short - term investors are advised to wait and see. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or for those with high risk tolerance, they can consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term price range of the SHFE nickel main contract is expected to be between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M contract between 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource End**: Nickel ore prices in the Philippines are likely to remain stable in the short - term. Despite weakening demand due to falling domestic ferronickel prices, the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas makes mines reluctant to lower prices. In Indonesia, although the overall supply - demand is loose, the upcoming RKAB quota revision and new RKAB submission in 2026 have led smelters to increase stockpiling, limiting the downside of ore prices [11]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel prices have weakened recently. Slow destocking of stainless steel social inventory and limited support from the peak season on stainless steel prices have led to low procurement willingness among steel enterprises, and the market is starting to price in the pessimistic post - peak season fundamentals, with further price drops expected [11]. - **Intermediate Products**: The supply of market - available intermediate products is tight, strengthening sellers' bargaining power. Some traders have raised quotes, and with the peak demand season in downstream industries, enterprises' raw material procurement demand has increased, leading to a strong MHP coefficient price [11]. - **Refined Nickel**: In September, nickel prices fluctuated. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the US economy still showed resilience. In the spot market, trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands remained stable [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Refined Nickel Prices**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased. The LME and SHFE closing prices also declined, while the spot and three - month price ratios increased. The import loss decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged. Nickel plate inventory decreased, while nickel bean inventory increased [16]. - **Nickel Spot Premium**: Domestic refined nickel spot premiums fluctuated. As of October 9, the premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with the average price unchanged [22]. - **Secondary Nickel Prices**: Ferronickel prices were slightly weak, with the domestic high - nickel pig iron ex - factory price at 955 yuan/nickel point on October 10, unchanged from before the holiday. Sulfuric acid nickel prices were slightly strong, with the domestic spot price at 283,200 yuan/ton on October 10, up 60 yuan/ton from before the holiday [26]. 3.3 Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: Domestic port nickel ore inventory continued to increase. As of September 26, the inventory was 1.4094 billion tons, up 0.7% from the previous week. Nickel ore prices remained stable. On October 10, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.7 US dollars/wet ton, up 0.5 US dollars/wet ton from before the holiday, and the price of 1.2% - grade ore was unchanged. The price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore was unchanged [33][36]. - **Ferronickel**: No detailed profit - related analysis was provided in the summary part, but production data charts for Indonesia and China were presented [38]. - **Intermediate Products**: In August, Indonesia's MHP production was 43,000 nickel tons, up 3,000 tons month - on - month, and high - grade nickel matte production was 29,000 nickel tons, up 4,000 tons month - on - month. As of September 26, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 13,598 US dollars/metal ton, with the MHP coefficient to LME nickel unchanged, and the high - grade nickel matte price was the same, with the coefficient up 0.01 [43][48]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's refined nickel production remained at 37,000 tons, at a historically high level [53]. - **Demand**: Data on stainless steel production, social inventory, and terminal demand in manufacturing and real estate were presented, but no specific demand - side conclusions were drawn [55][57]. - **Import and Export**: No specific import - export analysis was provided in the summary part, but relevant data charts were presented [59]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the global visible nickel inventory was 270,000 tons [63]. - **Cost**: Charts on production costs by raw material and profit margins by process were presented, but no specific cost - side conclusions were drawn [65]. 3.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: Charts on China's sulfuric acid nickel production and net imports were presented, but no specific supply - side conclusions were drawn [69]. - **Demand**: Charts on ternary power battery loading volume and China's ternary precursor production were presented, but no specific demand - side conclusions were drawn [72]. - **Cost and Price**: Charts on battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel production costs, prices, and profit margins of main raw materials were presented, but no specific cost - price conclusions were drawn [75]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Supply Outlook**: A chart of global supply outlook was presented, but no specific analysis was provided [79]. - **Quarterly Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: From 2023 to 2025, the total supply generally exceeded the total demand. In 2023, the supply - demand surplus was 82,900 nickel tons; in 2024, it was 27,200 nickel tons; and in 2025, it is expected to be 166,400 nickel tons [80].