Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the short term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down the nickel price. If the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, it is difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. However, in the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main contract price of Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In October, the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, due to increased rainfall and strong price - holding intention of mines, the price is unlikely to fall soon. In Indonesia, the overall supply and demand of pyrometallurgical ore is relatively loose, but the new rule on the approval cycle intensifies the expectation of "ore supply shortage", and smelters are speeding up stockpiling, with the price expected to remain stable or rise slightly. The hydrometallurgical ore market is dull, and the price is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: In October, the ferronickel price was weak due to weak demand. The supply - side profit is squeezed, and the price - holding intention is strong. The demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and steel enterprises are pressing down the price. The demand side dominates the price, and the price is expected to remain weak [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply - demand tightness of the MHP market continues. The supply of MHP spot is limited, and sellers are strongly holding the price. The demand for battery pre - installation due to the subsidy withdrawal in 2026 makes downstream enterprises more accepting of high prices, and the MHP coefficient price remains strong [11]. - **Refined nickel**: In October, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. Macroscopically, although the Sino - US tariff negotiation made progress, the US government shutdown and the Fed's slightly hawkish stance led to a general decline in non - ferrous metal prices after a rise. In the spot market, the output of refined nickel remained high, and inventories continued to accumulate, with the spot premium stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: In October, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. As of November 6, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 119,440 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract was 15,055 US dollars/ton [17]. - **Nickel spot premium**: In October, the spot premium of domestic refined nickel fluctuated strongly. As of November 7, the premium of Russian nickel spot average price to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 3,100 yuan/ton, with the average price up 700 yuan/ton from the previous month [21]. - **Secondary nickel price**: In October, the ferronickel price was weak. As of November 6, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 912 - 921 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 38 yuan/nickel point from the previous month. The sulfuric acid nickel price was relatively strong, and as of November 6, the domestic spot price of sulfuric acid nickel was 28,340 - 28,600 yuan/ton, with the average price basically unchanged from the previous month [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The nickel ore price remained stable with a slight increase. On November 7, the arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.7 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous month; that of 1.2% - grade was 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous month; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore was 58 US dollars/wet ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous month [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the national refined nickel output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from September [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is affected by the stainless - steel industry, manufacturing, and real - estate industries. The inventory of stainless - steel enterprises and the performance of terminal industries have an impact on demand [50]. - **Import and export**: No specific data on import and export changes in October are mentioned, but relevant charts are provided [54]. - **Inventory**: In October, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 30,284 tons to 299,948 tons, with both China and the LME accumulating inventory [58]. 5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: No specific data on supply changes in October are mentioned, but relevant charts on production and net import volume are provided [64]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel is related to the installation volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [67]. - **Cost and price**: Charts on the production cost, price, and profit margin of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel are provided, but no specific data on October are mentioned [70]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides the supply - demand balance data from 2019 to 2025. From 2019 - 2025, the overall supply is greater than the demand, and the supply - demand gap shows an increasing trend year by year [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down the nickel price, which is oscillating at the bottom. If the inventory continues to rise, it's difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. Short - term advice is to wait and see. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main contract of SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In the nickel ore market, the overall trading atmosphere is fair this week. In the Philippines, due to the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas, the mine price is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term. In Indonesia, the new regulation on the approval cycle has accelerated the stockpiling of smelters, and the overall ore price is expected to remain stable or rebound slightly; the wet - process ore market is relatively dull, and the price is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: This week, the game between supply and demand sides of ferronickel intensifies, and the price is weak. The profit of iron plants is squeezed, and they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The demand from stainless - steel enterprises is weak, and they are pressing down on the price of ferronickel. With cost support, the decline space of ferronickel is limited, and attention should be paid to the change in the demand side of stainless steel [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available resources is tight, and the bargaining power of sellers has increased. The downstream industry has entered the peak demand season, and the demand for raw material procurement has been released. The downstream enterprises' acceptance of the high - price MHP has gradually increased, and the MHP coefficient price has remained strong recently [11]. - **Refined nickel**: This week, the nickel price oscillated. Macroeconomic factors such as the US inflation data and Sino - US trade relations have affected market sentiment. The output of refined nickel remains high, and the inventory has continued to accumulate [11]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot market**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased. The spot parity and the three - month parity increased. The import loss decreased. The inventory of LME and SHFE increased, while the bonded - area inventory decreased. The inventory of nickel plates increased, and that of nickel beans decreased [15]. - **Futures market**: The closing prices of LME and SHFE nickel decreased. The LME nickel open interest decreased, and the SHFE nickel open interest increased [15]. - **Nickel spot premium**: The domestic refined - nickel spot premium oscillated. As of October 25, the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 150 yuan/ton compared with last week [23]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The ferronickel price was weak, and the average price of domestic high - nickel pig iron decreased by 7 yuan/nickel point compared with last week. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained stable [27]. 3.3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The price of nickel ore remained stable with a slight increase. On October 24, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - earth nickel ore increased by 0.1 US dollars/wet ton compared with last week, and the price of 1.2% - grade ore remained unchanged. The price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore increased by 1 US dollar/wet ton [36]. - **Ferronickel**: The production profit of ferronickel is under pressure, and the profit situation varies in different regions [38][40]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available resources is tight, and the price and the transaction coefficient are relatively strong [46]. 3.4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In September 2025, the national refined - nickel output remained at 37,000 tons, at a historically high level [51]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is affected by the stainless - steel market and downstream manufacturing and real - estate industries [53][55]. - **Import and export**: No specific data on the current situation of import and export are mentioned, but relevant historical data trends are presented [57]. - **Inventory**: The global visible inventory of nickel increased by 0.17% to 298,550 tons, and both China and LME saw inventory accumulation [61]. - **Cost**: The production cost and profit rate vary by different raw materials and processes [63]. 3.5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: The production and net import volume of sulfuric acid nickel in China are presented through historical data trends [67]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel is related to the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [70]. - **Cost and price**: The production cost and profit rate of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel vary by different raw materials [72]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The global supply and demand of nickel from 2023 to 2025 are forecasted. The total supply is expected to exceed the total demand, and the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in 2025 [78].

宏观氛围积极，周期底 部渐明 镍月报 2025/10/10 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：近期镍矿价格持稳运行为主。菲律宾方面，虽然国内镍铁价格下跌，需求走弱，但菲律宾主产区雨季即将到来，矿山挺价意愿偏强， 预计菲律宾镍矿价格短期或难有下跌。印尼方面，整体供需依旧宽松，但RKAB 最新一轮配额修订预计将在本月公布，随后将提交2026年的新 RKAB，出于对四季度及2026年RKAB审批额度的担忧，冶炼厂已加快备库，整体矿价下行空间有限。 ◆ 镍铁：近期镍铁价格有所走弱，主要系不锈钢社会库存去库速度较缓，旺季对不锈钢价格支撑有限，钢企采购意愿普遍低迷，带动镍铁价格走 弱。目前，市场逐步转向交易旺季之后的基本面悲观预期，预计后市仍有进一步下跌空间。 ◆ 中间品：供应端， ...