Group 1 - The current market is experiencing the end of the mid-year earnings forecast trend, with high forecast growth rates in certain industries leading to better market performance and upward adjustments in profit predictions [3][9][13] - Historical data indicates that the market's focus on mid-year earnings typically increases from June, peaking in early July before declining, suggesting a shift in market direction is imminent [3][9][13] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident in the U.S., with high dependency sectors seeing significant CPI increases, although the full effects of tariffs may not yet be realized [4][17][19] - Inventory levels are acting as a buffer for price transmission, with wholesalers being the main force behind inventory replenishment in the U.S. this year [4][17][19] - Approximately 75% of U.S. companies are likely to pass on increased costs due to tariffs to consumers, indicating potential inflationary pressures [20][23][28] Group 3 - In China, the GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, slightly above expectations, but concerns about demand weakness persist, particularly in consumption and investment [4][39][41] - The export structure is changing, with a notable increase in the export growth rates of capital goods and intermediate goods, while some consumer goods are seeing a decline [39][40][41] - The differentiation between large and small enterprises is intensifying, with larger firms improving their market concentration and profitability outlook [41][42] Group 4 - The report suggests that despite short-term economic disturbances, the path for return on equity (ROE) in China is becoming clearer, driven by anti-involution policies and a stronger manufacturing sector [4][41][46] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods that benefit from both domestic policies and international demand [4][46]