机构：中信建投证券 研究员：马鲲鹏/李晨/王欣宇 核心观点 汇丰控股私有化恒生银行的核心战略目标在于投资香港、进一步提高香港地区财富管理等核心业务的竞 争力和盈利能力。私有化完成后，预计将在少数股东权益减少、成本收入比压降、财富管理业务量价双 升等三方面，显著提振汇丰控股ROTE 近2pct，即从当前16%左右向上突破至18%-19%，达到全球银行 业一流水平。当前市场对恒生私有化业绩提升效果的预期，无论是影响范围、还是提升幅度，均不充 分，上调汇丰控股目标价至180 港元（2.25 倍PTB），维持买入评级和银行板块首推。 摘要 3）最重要的是，私有化及业务深度融合后，恒生的财富管理业务有望实现"量高增+价提升"，进一步提 振汇丰ROTE 约1pct。 恒生财富管理业务的AUM 增速及单位AUM 收益率，较汇丰香港及汇丰集团均有明显差距。私有化 后，AUM 增速及单位AUM 收益率有望逐步向汇丰靠拢，若恒生AUM 增速看齐汇丰的20%-30%、单位 AUM 费率看齐汇丰的0.6%-0.7%，财富管理收入将提振汇丰集团口径ROTE 约1pct。当前市场对私有化 的营收贡献预期极不充分。 上调汇丰控股目标估值至 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has upgraded Standard Chartered Group's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised the target price by 21% from HKD 168 to HKD 203, indicating further revaluation potential despite an 83% increase in the stock price this year [1] Group 1: Rating and Price Target - Goldman Sachs has raised Standard Chartered's rating to "Buy" and increased the target price to HKD 203, reflecting a 21% increase from the previous target [1] - The bank believes there is still room for further revaluation of Standard Chartered's stock [1] Group 2: Return on Equity Expectations - Goldman Sachs projects that Standard Chartered's underlying return on tangible equity (ROTE) will reach 14.6% by the end of this year, exceeding the management's guidance of 13% [1] - The ROTE is expected to further increase to 15% in 2027 and 15.7% in 2028 [1] - An upward revision of the mid-term ROTE guidance is anticipated during the 2025 financial report or the investor day in May 2026, which could act as a catalyst for the stock price [1] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - Standard Chartered is expected to provide attractive returns to shareholders, with a projected total return (dividends + buybacks) of 8.4% by 2026 [1] - The long-term total payout ratio is expected to be maintained at 80% due to strong capital generation capabilities [1] - Share buyback forecasts for 2028-2029 have been increased from USD 2.5 billion to USD 2.8 billion annually, and the dividend payout ratios for 2026-2028 have been revised from a fixed 21% to 25%/30%/35% respectively [1] - The revised forecasts indicate an average total payout ratio of 75% for 2026-2028, supporting ROTE improvement and valuation revaluation [1]