Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on April 25, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products such as soybeans, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs [1] Soybean/M粕 Core View - Domestic soybean meal fluctuated on Thursday, with spot prices rising significantly. The market expects soybean meal and soybeans to accumulate inventory in the next three months, and downstream buyers are cautious about taking delivery. The soybean oil mill operating rate declined, and soybean meal sales and delivery were weak. The Brazilian soybean premium is expected to strengthen, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has a tendency to rise steadily. However, the trade war and weak macro - environment could suppress soybean prices [2][3] Key Information - On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal price first rose and then fell, with the lowest national spot price reaching 3,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume of soybean meal was 112,600 tons, and the delivery was weak. The soybean oil mill operating rate was 40.82%, expected to recover to 39.02% this week, with a planned crush of 1.3883 million tons [2] - Overnight, the US soybean oil price soared, driving up the US soybean price. Due to high tariffs on US soybeans, China mainly imports soybeans from Brazil. The Brazilian soybean premium has the potential to strengthen, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has a tendency to rise steadily. However, the trade war and weak macro - environment could suppress soybean prices [3] Trading Strategy - The cost range of the 05 soybean meal contract is 2,750 - 2,850 yuan/ton, and that of the 09 and other far - month contracts is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, US soybeans are under pressure from the trade war but are strongly supported by low valuations, reduced planting area, and increased demand for US soybean oil. The Brazilian soybean premium is currently under pressure but is expected to stabilize in the medium term. Domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] Oils Key Information - ITS and AMSPEC estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports increased by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April, 13.5% - 17% in the first 15 days, and 11.9% in the first 20 days. SPPOMA's high - frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.97% in the first 15 days and 9.11% in the first 20 days of April. UOB and MPOA estimate a more than 16% increase in the first 20 days [7] - Overnight, the US soybean oil price soared. The Advanced Biofuels Association urged the EPA to increase the RVO for 2026 to 5.75 billion gallons, up from the current 3.35 billion gallons. In 2024, the US produced nearly 4.9 billion gallons of advanced biofuels [7] Trading Strategy - A decline in the crude oil price center will suppress the valuation of oils. If palm oil production recovers significantly, oils may be bearish. Although Malaysian palm oil production has recovered, it is supported by improved high - frequency exports in April and low inventory levels. In the medium term, if the macro - environment stabilizes, oils may be supported by the expected increase in RVO [9] Sugar Key Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the September contract was 5,945 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and processing sugar prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. As of April 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded increased to 1.8711 million tons [11] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the raw sugar price has fallen due to the weak macro - market, but the Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively resistant to decline. The supply is still tight in the short term due to lower - than - expected production in the Northern Hemisphere and low inventory and shipping volumes in Brazil. In the long term, if the weather improves in 2025, sugar production may increase significantly in the 2025/26 season, and sugar prices may fall from high levels [12] Cotton Key Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the September contract was 12,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,850 yuan/ton. US President Trump said he would "significantly reduce" high tariffs on China, and US Treasury Secretary Yellen expected the "trade war" between the two largest economies in the world to ease [14] Trading Strategy - After the US postponed the tariff collection, the US cotton price rebounded significantly, but China's exports to the US are still restricted, causing a divergence in the short - term price trends of domestic and foreign cotton. Currently, the domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. If downstream consumption weakens, cotton prices may fall; if it improves, there may be a rebound opportunity [15] Eggs Key Information - The domestic pig price mostly fell yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.06 yuan to 14.91 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan dropped by 0.11 yuan to 14.69 yuan/kg. Slaughter orders are limited, and the second - round fattening in some areas has cooled down, putting pressure on pig farmers to support prices [17] Trading Strategy - High positions have made the futures market structure unstable. After the feed price increase, the downstream inventory replenishment expectations have changed, and the inventory at all levels has decreased significantly, leading to a joint rebound in futures and spot prices. However, there are few and short - term positive factors in this season, and the mid - term price increase of eggs may lack sustainability. After the position risk further decreases, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait for short - selling signals [18] Hogs Key Information - The domestic pig price mostly fell yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.06 yuan to 14.91 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan dropped by 0.11 yuan to 14.69 yuan/kg. Slaughter orders are limited, and the second - round fattening in some areas has cooled down, putting pressure on pig farmers to support prices [20] Trading Strategy - The short - term spot price fluctuation is limited, but the pressure is accumulating due to the increasing pig weight. The futures market has partially reflected the market's bearish expectations for the future, but the downward space is also limited due to the discount. Adopt a range - trading strategy, and pay more attention to short - selling opportunities after the futures and spot prices rebound due to emotions such as hoarding, second - round fattening, and inventory replenishment. Before the contradictions deepen, adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading approach [21]