机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/苏燕妮 AI 与会员体系双轮驱动，长期增长韧性充足 根据业绩会，公司全面升级美团会员服务，会员体系预计带动核心本地商业不同品类、场景的交叉销 售。自研 LongCat 大模型，AI 助手"小团"全量上线，自然语言交互重构用户体验，AI 深度融合本地生 活全场景。长期来看，核心本地商业韧性强劲，生鲜零售与海外为长期增长曲线，AI + 零售战略持续 落地，平台价值有望持续释放。 盈利预测与估值 我们预测26-28 年收入4006/4600/5291（26/27 年较前值-2.6%/-1.5%）亿元，主因外卖竞争影响，补贴增 加将冲减收入，做出小幅下调。调整后净利润84/346/598（26/27 年较前值-59.4%/-26.0%）亿元，主因 外卖竞争影响，补贴及营销侧投入增加，因此大幅度下调公司利润。我们将估值从PE 切换至SOTP（前 值：27 年17 倍PE），主因短期国内外卖补贴竞争仍有不确定性，预计27 年非理性补贴退坡后能比较好 体现公司的长期优势。参考可比公司27 年平均PE 为15.8 倍，PS 为1.9 倍，外卖/到店均有竞争不确定 性，给予估值折价为10/12 ...

Summary of Broadcom Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) - **Industry**: Semiconductors and Software Key Points Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues for FY2026 are $105.8 billion, representing a 66% year-over-year increase, with semiconductor revenue at $77.3 billion and software revenue at $28.5 billion, growing 109% and 6% respectively [29] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for FY2026 is $11.05, compared to the Street estimate of $10.23 [29] - **Quarterly Guidance**: For FQ2 2026, revenue is projected at $20.8 billion with EPS of $2.18, exceeding Street estimates of $20.3 billion and $2.15 [28] Business Segments - **Semiconductor Business**: - AI revenue is expected to reach $9.6 billion in FQ2 2026, up 18% quarter-over-quarter [28] - Non-AI semiconductor revenue is projected to decline slightly to $4.0 billion [28] - **Software Business**: - Facing potential customer churn and competitive pressures, particularly with VMware contracts up for renewal in 2026/2027 [1][2] - Growth is expected to be around 4-6% CAGR through 2029, accounting for emerging risks [1] Valuation Metrics - **Valuation Comparisons**: Broadcom's semiconductor business is trading at 20x P/E, 23x EV/FCF, and 17x EV/EBITDA, which is more expensive than NVIDIA and the broader peer set [1][9] - **Revenue Synergies**: The argument for revenue synergies between software and semiconductor segments is considered weaker than in previous years, particularly post-VMware acquisition [3][8] Market Dynamics - **Software Market Correction**: The software sector has seen a correction, contributing to Broadcom's lagging stock performance, with software multiples down 27% year-to-date [9] - **AI Business Growth**: The AI segment is projected to triple revenue to over $60 billion in FY2026, with expectations of reaching approximately $120 billion by FY2027 [2] Risks and Challenges - **Customer Churn**: Potential increase in VMware customer churn as contracts come up for renewal [1] - **Competitive Pressures**: The software business is facing competitive pressures that could impact margins and growth [2] - **Capital Allocation**: There is a suggestion that Broadcom may need to allocate additional capital to enhance its AI offerings, particularly in the compute segment [8] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - **12-Month Rating**: Buy - **Price Target**: $475.00, with current trading around $330.02 [4] Additional Insights - **Debt Position**: Projected net debt to EBITDA ratio is 0.3x by FY2026, indicating a manageable debt level [4] - **Market Capitalization**: Broadcom's market cap is approximately $1.558 trillion [4] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Broadcom's financial outlook, segment performance, market dynamics, and associated risks.