The fast casual chain is seeing declining sales volume.For years, Chipotle (CMG 1.55%) has been considered a bulletproof stock. After getting past its previous food health scares, the fast casual Mexican chain has steadily grown its unit count and per store sales, driving earnings higher and higher. Investors believed there was a huge runway for unit growth, both in the United States and internationally, and gave Chipotle stock a premium valuation because of it.Chinks may finally be showing up in Chipotle's ...

Core Insights - Cava reported better-than-expected sales in its latest fiscal quarter, with same-store sales growing 10.8%, surpassing analysts' expectations of 10.3% [1][6] - The company experienced positive traffic growth of 7.5% across all geographies and income cohorts, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards its offerings [2][3] Financial Performance - Cava's fiscal first-quarter net income reached $25.71 million, or 22 cents per share, up from $13.99 million, or 12 cents per share, a year earlier [6] - Net sales increased by 28% to $332 million, with revenue surpassing $1 billion on a 12-month trailing basis, marking a significant milestone for the company [7] - The company raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast to between $152 million and $159 million, up from the previous range of $150 million to $157 million [8] Market Position and Outlook - Despite strong quarterly performance, Cava maintained its same-store sales forecast of a 6% to 8% increase, anticipating slower growth in the latter half of fiscal 2025 [5] - The company plans to open 64 to 68 new locations, an increase from its prior outlook of 62 to 66 openings [8] - Cava's stock fell 5% in extended trading, reflecting investor concerns over its conservative outlook and economic factors [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 17% in Q3 fiscal 2025, with consolidated same store sales growth of 8.6% [6][15] - Earnings per diluted share reached $2.43, up from $1.81 in the prior year period, exceeding guidance by $0.36 [7][19] - Gross profit increased by 20% to $239 million, with a gross profit rate of 39.3%, reflecting a 100 basis point increase [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same store sales in brick-and-mortar increased by 8.2%, while e-commerce sales grew by 11.1% [6][15] - Merchandise margin expanded by 130 basis points, driven by supply chain efficiencies and better buying economies [7][13] - Exclusive brand penetration increased by 180 basis points, contributing to merchandise margin expansion [13][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 13 new stores in Q3, bringing the total to 438 stores across 46 states [8][9] - The company plans to open 21 additional stores in Q4, aiming for a total of 60 new stores for the fiscal year [9][20] - Active customers in loyalty programs increased to 9.4 million, a 15% increase year-over-year [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its store base, driving same store sales, strengthening omnichannel leadership, and expanding merchandise margins [8][10][12] - The company believes it has the potential to double its store count in the U.S. over the next several years [9] - The new Chief Digital Officer is expected to enhance the company's digital strategy and e-commerce performance [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the current business tone and the start of Q4, with same store sales growth continuing [14] - The company raised its full-year guidance, expecting total sales to reach $1.92 billion, representing a 15% growth over fiscal 2024 [19] - Management noted that inventory levels are healthy, with no significant markdown risks anticipated [37] Other Important Information - The company experienced a $0.22 benefit related to the CEO transition included in Q3 earnings per diluted share [8] - SG&A expenses decreased as a percentage of sales due to the forfeiture of incentive-based compensation related to the CEO transition [16][90] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on traffic and demand in January? - Management noted an acceleration in both men's and women's Western categories, with a strong start to Q4 expected to continue [26][27] Question: What are the drivers of merchandise margin? - Management expects Q4 merchandise margin to increase by 120 basis points, driven by supply chain efficiencies and exclusive brand penetration [29][30] Question: How is inventory positioned for future sales? - Management expressed confidence in inventory levels, stating markdown inventory is lower than previous years and pre-COVID times [37][38] Question: What is the company's exposure to tariffs? - The company has 30% of orders from China and 25% from Mexico, with plans to negotiate pricing with vendors if tariffs increase [51][53] Question: How does the company view store density and cannibalization? - Management indicated that store placement depends on market density, with successful openings within close proximity in urban areas [59][60] Question: What are the opportunities in private label? - The company sees potential in its exclusive brands, particularly in work boots, with plans to expand offerings [70][71] Question: What are the expectations for SG&A expenses next year? - Management anticipates a flat lease expense and potential benefits from reduced incentive-based compensation next year [73][74]