ab Global Research Powered by 19 August 2025 YES UBS Evidence Lab China Auto Parts Sector APAC Focus: LiDARs - The eyes of smart driving Smart driving has been a key theme in the auto supply chain since 2020. Under the theme, companies related to smart cockpit, smart driving controller, and head-up display have seen substantial growth over the past 5 years. We believe the next product poised for substantial growth under the smart driving theme could be LiDAR - a sensor that enhances the reliability of smart ...

21 August 2025 | 6:04PM HKT Desay SV (002920.SZ): Smart driving in expansion with more diversified customers; 2Q25 in line; Neutral We are positive on Desay SV's continuous product mix upgrade and diversifying customers: (1) smart driving toward high-end domain controllers, and smart cockpit also toward domain controllers from legacy business (e.g. infotainment system, digital dashboard, etc.); (2) diversifying customer base with rising overseas car OEMs (e.g. Japan, Europe); and (3) integrated solutions ac ...

Summary of XPeng Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: XPeng Inc. - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: Rmb124,453 million - **Current Stock Price**: US$19.90 - **Price Target**: US$28.00 Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **2Q GPM**: XPeng's gross profit margin (GPM) exceeded expectations, indicating that the platform strategy is yielding positive results and should continue to support margin trends despite rising operational expenses in the second half of the year [1][3] - **Sales Target**: Monthly sales are projected to reach 40,000 units in September, driven by the launch of the new P7 model, which has seen strong pre-order interest [2] - **Margin Expansion**: The company aims for mid-teens vehicle margin in 3Q, up from 14.3% in 2Q, with expectations for further expansion in 4Q, potentially reaching high-teens GPM [3] Research and Development - **R&D Expenses**: Full-year R&D expenses are now expected to be Rmb9 billion, up from Rmb8.5 billion, reflecting increased investments in AI and cloud computing [4] - **SG&A Growth**: Selling, general, and administrative expenses are anticipated to rise in 3Q due to increased marketing efforts ahead of new model launches [4] Profitability Outlook - **Net Profit Breakeven**: Management is optimistic about achieving net profit breakeven in 4Q, although it is unlikely to occur in 3Q due to higher operational costs [5] - **Free Cash Flow**: The company aims to achieve positive free cash flow in the second half of 2025 [5] Volume and Revenue Estimates - **Volume Estimates**: Revised volume estimates for 2025 and 2026 are increased by 6% and 1% respectively, reflecting strong order intake for the G7 and P7 models [6] - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenue for 2025 is Rmb83,305 million, with a projected increase to Rmb107,276 million in 2026 [6][17] Strategic Initiatives - **Hybrid System Launch**: XPeng plans to introduce its super electric hybrid system in 4Q, which is expected to be priced similarly to its current battery electric vehicle (BEV) models [11] - **AI Turing Chip**: The rollout of the AI Turing chip is expected to enhance the company's smart driving capabilities, with plans for external sales opportunities [12] - **Overseas Expansion**: XPeng delivered 18,000 units overseas in 1H25, marking a 200% year-over-year growth, and expects overseas sales to contribute over 10% of total volume soon [13] Collaborations and Future Plans - **Volkswagen Partnership**: Revenue from Volkswagen is expected to transition from project-based to volume-based by 2026, contributing to steady GPM [14] - **Robo-Vehicles**: Plans to launch L4 autonomous vehicles in 2026, which will differ from current offerings by relying on a vision-only solution [15] Valuation and Price Target - **Valuation Methodology**: The price target of US$28 is based on a probability-weighted DCF methodology, with a long-term growth rate assumption of 3% [18][19] - **Bull and Bear Cases**: The bull case price target is US$47, while the bear case is US$13, reflecting varying assumptions about market conditions and competition [20][22] Additional Important Insights - **Market Position**: XPeng is positioned to benefit from a robust model pipeline and technology monetization, which could drive a re-rating of its stock [30] - **Risk Factors**: Potential risks include intensified competition in the EV market and cash flow pressures due to lower profitability [64] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting XPeng's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook in the electric vehicle industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the **China Autos & Shared Mobility** sector, with a specific emphasis on the evolution of the auto industry and the impact of autonomous driving technologies [4][6][96]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Evolution of the Auto Industry**: The transition from Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEV) to Electric Vehicles (EV) and Smart EVs is highlighted, with projections for Robo-vehicles starting in 2026. The industry is moving towards a data-driven ecosystem that integrates advanced technologies such as semiconductors, sensors, and software [7][40]. - **Sales Forecasts for Autonomous Driving (AD)**: The report outlines various scenarios for the development of Level 2+ autonomous driving sales, with a significant focus on the Chinese market. It anticipates a total addressable market (TAM) for smart driving hardware to reach **US$150 billion by 2030** [18][19][30]. - **Robotaxi Penetration**: Projections indicate that robotaxi penetration among taxis and ride-sharing vehicles in China could reach **8% by 2030**, with a steady increase in volume from **0.1% in 2024 to 8.0% in 2030** [31][32]. - **Current Leaders in Robotaxi Market**: The report identifies key players in the Chinese robotaxi market, including WeRide, Pony.ai, Apollo Go, and Tesla, detailing their operational areas, fleet sizes, and technological capabilities [39]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The report emphasizes the competitive landscape among original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the shift towards smart driving technologies, which require significant investments in data and computing power [6][20]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The development of autonomous vehicles is subject to regulatory changes, which will impact the pace of adoption and market penetration. The report notes the need for type approvals and compliance with local regulations [29]. - **Investment Considerations**: Morgan Stanley's research includes disclosures about potential conflicts of interest, as the firm has business relationships with several companies in the automotive sector, which may influence the objectivity of the research [4][5][49]. - **Analyst Ratings**: The report provides a summary of stock ratings for various companies within the sector, indicating a mix of overweight, equal-weight, and underweight ratings based on market performance expectations [96]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the evolving landscape of the automotive industry, particularly in the context of autonomous driving and shared mobility in China.

Summary of BYD Company Limited Research Call Company Overview - **Company**: BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ) - **Industry**: China Autos & Shared Mobility Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Target Adjustments**: - Price target revised from Rmb144.33 to Rmb144.00 - Bull case target set at Rmb216.00, base case at Rmb149.00, and bear case at Rmb63.00 [1][2][3] 2. **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecasts**: - EPS estimates for fiscal years 2024 to 2027 are projected at Rmb4.6, Rmb5.8, Rmb7.1, and Rmb8.4 respectively [3][16] 3. **Investment Thesis**: - BYD is expected to leverage its vertically integrated supply chain for cost advantages and bargaining power against competitors [12] - The company’s PHEV offerings are positioned to be competitive in emerging markets with limited charging infrastructure [12] - BYD aims to democratize Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in the mass market, potentially transforming into a smart driving technology enabler [12] 4. **Market Positioning**: - BYD is viewed as an EV bellwether with ambitions for global expansion [7] - The company is expected to experience volume growth from ADAS adoption and trade-in stimulus, which may mitigate competitive pressures in the mass market segment [7] 5. **Valuation Methodology**: - Valuation based on a blended methodology with a 25% weight on bull case, 50% on base case, and 25% on bear case [7] - The bull case assumes a 30x P/E ratio for 2025 estimates, while the base case uses a 26x P/E and the bear case a 15x P/E [13][14][15] 6. **Revenue and Sales Volume Projections**: - NEV passenger vehicle sales volume projected to grow from approximately 4.25 million in 2026 to 6.86 million in 2027 [16] - Revenue estimates for 2025 are projected at Rmb1,018,208 million, with gross profit expected to reach Rmb212,517 million [16] 7. **Risks and Challenges**: - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected demand for NEVs and aggressive price competition leading to reduced margins [18] - Economic recessions in emerging markets could negatively impact auto sales [15] 8. **Ownership and Institutional Positioning**: - Institutional ownership stands at 93.7%, indicating strong institutional interest in BYD [17] 9. **Market Sentiment**: - The consensus rating distribution shows 97% of analysts rating BYD as Overweight, indicating positive sentiment towards the stock [12] Additional Important Insights - **Competitive Landscape**: BYD's competitive edge is attributed to its scale and integrated supply chain, which may provide resilience against market fluctuations [12] - **Global Revenue Exposure**: Currently, BYD's revenue is entirely derived from Mainland China, highlighting a potential area for future expansion [17] - **Analyst Certification**: Analysts involved in the report have certified their views on BYD, ensuring the integrity of the analysis presented [24] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding BYD Company Limited, reflecting its current market position, future growth potential, and associated risks.

Summary of the Conference Call on Autonomous Driving and AI Integration Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **automotive industry** and its transition towards **autonomous driving** powered by **AI**. - A forecast of a **US$200 billion market** for self-driving vehicles by **2030** is presented, with significant implications for various stakeholders in the industry [1][5][43]. Key Forecasts and Market Dynamics - **Market Penetration**: Vehicles with **Level 2+** smart driving features are expected to reach **28%** of unit sales by **2030**, up from **8%** in **2024**. This translates to **26 million** unit sales annually by **2030** [5][43]. - The global **ADAS/AD hardware/software market** is projected to be **US$200 billion** by **2030** and could grow to **US$300-400 billion** by **2035** [5][43]. - **China** is anticipated to lead the market, with **60%** of passenger vehicles sold equipped with L2+ features by **2030**, accounting for half of the global market volume [51]. Adoption Drivers - **Technological Advancements**: Breakthroughs in **GenAI-powered simulation** and **cost deflation** through collaboration are expected to accelerate adoption [42][57]. - **Regulatory Support**: Progressive regulations in regions like Europe and the US are facilitating the deployment of smart driving technologies [59][60]. Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the concept of **'coopetition'**, where global OEMs may either compete or collaborate to lower costs and expedite the development of smart driving technologies [6][45]. - Key players identified include **Nvidia**, **Tesla**, **XPeng**, and **Li Auto**, among others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the smart driving trend [8][46]. Risks and Challenges - Key risks include rising hardware costs due to supply chain issues, inadequate regulatory frameworks, and ethical concerns surrounding autonomous driving [9][60]. - The report highlights the potential for slower adoption rates during the early stages of technology upgrades and stresses the importance of building consumer trust in autonomous systems [94]. Revenue Opportunities - The report estimates that the market value of L2+ smart driving will surpass **US$200 billion** by **2030**, with hardware and software providing distinct revenue streams [60][62]. - **Hardware** sales will initially drive revenue, while **software** sales are expected to generate recurring revenue through licensing and updates [63][64]. Conclusion - The automotive industry is at a pivotal moment, with AI integration poised to reshape mobility. The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration among global players to navigate the evolving landscape and capitalize on emerging opportunities [42][85].

Summary of Will Semi (OmniVision) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Will Semi (re-branded to OmniVision) - **Stock Code**: 603501.SS Key Industry Insights - **Industry Focus**: Camera Integrated Circuits (CIS) for smartphones and automotive applications - **Market Trends**: Increasing adoption of cameras in vehicles and flagship smartphone launches in the second half of the year Core Financial Projections - **2Q25 Revenue Growth**: Expected to grow by +18% YoY to Rmb7.7 billion, continuing the growth trend from 1Q (+15% YoY) [1][3] - **Net Income Growth**: Projected net income growth of +33% YoY to Rmb1.1 billion in 2Q25 [1][3] - **Gross Margin**: Anticipated to be 30.6% in 2Q25, slightly down from 31.0% in 1Q25 due to lower contributions from smartphone CIS during slow seasons [3] Product Developments - **Smartphone CIS**: - New product OV50X with 50MPx sensor to start mass production in 3Q25, targeting flagship Android models [2] - Smartphone CIS expected to contribute 38% of revenues in 2024 [2] - **Automotive CIS**: - Expected to grow due to increased camera adoption in vehicles (from 3-4 cameras to 7-10 cameras per vehicle) [2] - Projected vehicle camera shipments in China to reach 126 million in 2025, growing at a +22% CAGR to 343 million by 2030 [2] Earnings Revisions - **2025-2027 Estimates**: Full-year estimates for revenue and net income remain unchanged, with adjustments made for quarterly seasonality [8] Valuation and Price Target - **12-Month Price Target**: Rmb175.3, based on a 31x 2026E P/E, which is within the company's historical trading range [13][15] - **Current Price**: Rmb125.71, indicating a potential upside of 39.4% [15] Risks to Consider - **Product Expansion**: Risks include slower new product expansion and product mix improvement in smartphone CIS [14] - **Market Demand**: Weaker-than-expected demand in the China smartphone market could impact growth [14] - **Trade Tensions**: Potential impacts from ongoing trade tensions may pose risks to operations [14] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating based on strong growth prospects in both smartphone and automotive CIS segments, supported by new product launches and market trends [1][2][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to BYD (1211 HK), Desay SV (002920 CH), and Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) [54][60][65]. Core Insights - The China auto market has shown another double-digit year-on-year growth, with wholesale unit deliveries reaching 2.5 million units in June, marking a 14.5% increase year-on-year and a 7.8% increase month-on-month [1][7]. - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing suboptimal growth, with EV penetration at 52.7% in June, which is below expectations and historical highs [1][7]. - Concerns are raised regarding the slowing growth of EV penetration, potentially due to aggressive pricing strategies from internal combustion engine (ICE) car manufacturers and the upcoming 50% cut to EV purchase tax exemptions starting next year [2][7]. Summary by Sections China Auto Market Performance - In 1H25, the China auto market reported a total of 13.5 million wholesale shipments, reflecting a 12.9% year-on-year growth, while retail sales (excluding minivans) reached 10.9 million units, up 10.8% year-on-year [8]. - The overall growth momentum in 1H25 was slightly above expectations, supported by government subsidies for scrapping and trade-in programs [8]. Electric Vehicle Market - Monthly retail sales of PV EVs reached 1.1 million units in June, representing a 30.2% year-on-year increase [1][9]. - The report highlights that BEVs outperformed PHEVs/EREVs in terms of growth, with BEVs showing 45% year-on-year growth in wholesale shipments during 1H25 [9]. OEM Strategies and Market Dynamics - OEMs are currently preparing their strategies for 2H25, with expectations of model launches and adjustments in response to government policies against over-competition [3]. - BYD remains a top pick due to its strategies aimed at regaining market share, including reducing SKUs and improving model features without price increases [4]. Battery Market Insights - EV battery installations grew by 35.9% year-on-year to 58.2 GWh in June, with total installations for 1H25 reaching 300 GWh, a 47.3% increase year-on-year [5]. - CATL and BYD maintained their market leadership in the battery sector, holding 43.7% and 21.5% market shares, respectively [5]. Lithium Market Trends - The price of lithium carbonate in China rebounded from a low of CNY 60,000 per tonne in late June to CNY 63,000 per tonne in early July [5][48]. - The report anticipates potential downside risks to lithium production in July due to weakened demand and government interventions [5][48].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" investment rating for the China Autos industry [3]. Core Insights - The report forecasts 28.3 million units of passenger vehicle (PV) sales in China for 2025, representing a 3% year-over-year increase, and 14.9 million units of new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, which is a 22% year-over-year increase [9][10]. - The penetration of L2+ autonomous driving is expected to reach 25% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 15% [15][17]. - The wholesale NEV penetration reached 50% in June 2025, indicating a significant shift towards electric vehicles [20]. - The report highlights the increasing competition in the EV market, with local brands gaining market share from foreign brands [43][48]. Market Overview - The China auto industry is projected to see a total of 28.3 million PV sales in 2025, with a breakdown of 22.6 million domestic sales and 5.7 million exports [9]. - NEV sales are expected to grow significantly, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) contributing to this growth [9]. - The report notes that Asia and Europe accounted for over 65% of China's vehicle exports in the year-to-date 2025 [51]. Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the intensifying competition in the EV market, particularly from tech heavyweights collaborating with local OEMs to develop smart EVs [43][45]. - Local brands are continuing to gain share from foreign brands, with a notable increase in market share for brands like BYD and Geely [48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of collaborations among OEMs to enhance innovation and reduce costs in vehicle development [64][67]. Future Trends - The report identifies key focuses for auto OEMs, including AI-enabled smart cockpits, autonomous vehicles, and eVTOLs [70]. - It also highlights the ongoing development of autonomous driving capabilities, with several companies advancing their technologies to achieve higher levels of automation [73][75].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues reached RMB 12 billion, an increase of 21.5% year over year but a decrease of 38.9% quarter over quarter [16] - Vehicle sales were RMB 9.9 billion, up 18.6% year over year and down 43.1% quarter over quarter [16] - Vehicle gross margin was 10.2%, compared to 9.2% in Q1 last year and 13.1% last quarter [18] - Overall gross margin was 7.6%, up from 4.9% in Q1 last year but down from 11.7% last quarter [19] - Net loss was RMB 6.8 billion, an increase of 30.2% year over year and a decrease of 5.1% quarter over quarter [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 42,094 smart EVs, up 40.1% year over year, including 27,313 from NIO and 14,781 from Envoy [5][6] - Deliveries in April and May totaled 946,231, indicating a strong start for the new models [5] - The new ES6, EC6, ET5, and ET5P were launched in late May, with expectations of total deliveries in Q2 between 147,000, representing 25.5% to 30.7% growth year over year [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - NIO operates 184 NIO Houses and 461 NIO Spaces, with 391 service centers and 66 delivery centers [11] - The company has 3,408 power swap stations worldwide, providing over 75 million swaps to users [11] - NIO has partnered with more than 10 local partners in over 15 core markets worldwide for international expansion [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs across R&D, supply chain, sales, and service functions [14] - NIO plans to launch multiple core models in the second half of 2025, expecting deliveries to accelerate from Q3 [13] - The company is focusing on balancing sales volume with selling prices to improve gross profit [27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that 2025 is a challenging year for product launches, but they expect stronger sales and improved efficiency in the second half [13] - The company is confident in achieving breakeven in Q4, with operational targets set for vehicle gross margin and expense control [64] - Management emphasized the importance of cost reduction measures and operational efficiency improvements to enhance financial performance [34][88] Other Important Information - NIO completed a share offering in Hong Kong, raising over HKD 4 billion, which is expected to support future growth [13] - The company is implementing a new mechanism to improve R&D efficiency by consolidating resources across brands [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Volume sales guidance for Q2 - Management expects to deliver around 72,000 to 75,000 units in Q2, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving vehicle gross margins [26][28] Question: Cost reduction efforts - Management has implemented cost control measures and expects to see significant improvements in R&D and SG&A expenses in the second half of the year [30][34] Question: Feedback on new models and autonomous driving - Positive feedback has been received for the new world model, with improvements in active safety features and overall driving experience [40][42] Question: Strategy for Envoy brand and sales expectations - Management noted that the L60 has seen a 40% increase in monthly deliveries, and they expect continued growth with the upcoming L90 launch [47][52] Question: Cash flow improvements and management - Management highlighted the importance of improving operating cash flow through increased sales volume and cost control measures [87][88] Question: Overseas market strategy - The company is shifting to a partnership model for international expansion, focusing on long-term growth rather than aggressive volume targets [94] Question: Production capacity for Q4 - Current production capacity is sufficient to meet Q4 delivery targets, with plans to add a third factory in September [98] Question: Working capital and cash conversion cycle - Management acknowledged longer cash conversion cycles but is transitioning to an inventory-based sales model to better meet consumer demand [100]