When I say the benchmark revision that goes to last March was almost 900,000 down. There are other revisions from the birth death model that come in the months after that. By December of last year, the downward revision was over a million jobs.Yeah. So now we got the best possible outcome today. We knew these revisions were coming and they're going to talk about what's behind them.But to see the most recent readings, we've got some lift in the payrolls in January is just one month. But we got some lift and ...

Core Insights - The Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS) has shown a 3% increase at the start of 2026 after a 7% gain in 2025, but it has underperformed the broader market while maintaining a low annual fee of 0.084% [1] Group 1: Fund Performance and Composition - FDIS provides concentrated exposure to consumer discretionary stocks, with 97.7% of its portfolio in this sector, and nearly 40% of its assets are in Amazon (21%) and Tesla (18.28%) [2] - The performance of FDIS is significantly influenced by the contrasting stock movements of Amazon, which is up nearly 6% year-to-date, and Tesla, which has declined by 3.75% [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Consumer Spending - Consumer spending growth is projected to slow to 2% in 2026 from a historical average of 2.7%, which is critical for consumer discretionary stocks as they rely heavily on discretionary income [5] - The probability of a recession has decreased from 32% to 23.5% recently, indicating a potential soft landing for the economy, which is a positive sign for FDIS investors [6] Group 3: Company-Specific Challenges - Tesla's earnings have faced a significant decline, with a 63.8% drop in annual earnings per share in 2025, falling from $2.32 to $0.84, and a substantial miss in Q1 2025 earnings estimates [7]

Top economist David Rosenberg has issued a stark warning about the underlying health of the U.S. economy, contrasting a robust headline GDP figure with deteriorating industrial data that he argues signals recessionary weakness comparable to the 2009 financial crisis.The Industrial RealityIn a post on X on Monday, the president of Rosenberg Research highlighted a massive disconnect between official government growth data and on-the-ground industrial activity.While the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) r ...

Economic Outlook - Most economists expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2026, driven by the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" Act and increased AI spending [2][5] - A Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey indicates an average GDP growth rate of 1.8% for 2026, with inflation projected to slow to a 2.6% annual rate by Q4 2026 [6] - JPMorgan forecasts a growth rate of around 3% in the first half of 2026, tapering to between 1% and 2% later in the year, with inflation expected to decrease from over 3% to near 2% by year-end [7] Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation is anticipated to remain elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, raising questions about the feasibility of a "soft landing" [4][5] - Wells Fargo suggests that a softer labor market and potential tariff relief could help lower inflation, although it is still expected to stay above the Fed's target [9] - Analysts note that while economic growth may start strong in early 2026, it could slow later due to rising tariffs and tighter immigration policies [9][8] Market Sentiment - Despite economists' optimism, public sentiment reflects uncertainty, with a predictions market indicating a 35% chance of a recession by the end of 2026 [10]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is closed on December 25, 2025, for Christmas Day, following a record-setting session on Christmas Eve [1] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time closing highs on December 24, 2025 [1][2] Market Performance - On December 24, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to close at 6,932.05, marking a new all-time closing record [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.6% to finish at 48,731.16, also achieving a new closing high [3] - The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2% to 23,613.31, driven by strong performances in the artificial intelligence sector [3] - The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies gained 0.3% to 2,548.08 [3] Economic Indicators - Positive economic data included a revised Q3 GDP growth rate of 4.3% and cooling labor cost figures, supporting the narrative of a successful "soft landing" for the economy [4] - Falling unemployment claims indicated a healthy labor market, contributing to market confidence [4] - The Federal Reserve's earlier interest rate cuts have provided liquidity, supporting market valuations [4] Corporate News - Dynavax Technologies saw a surge in shares following Sanofi's announcement to acquire the vaccine maker [6] - Nike's stock rose 4.6% after Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased nearly $3 million worth of shares [6] - Nvidia shares fell 0.3% due to reports of paused testing on an Intel production process [6] - Novo Nordisk climbed 7.3% after FDA approval of its GLP-1 pill for obesity treatment [6] - Huntington Ingalls Industries shares rose 0.3% following U.S. government plans for new battleships [6] - ServiceNow shares fell 1.5% after announcing the acquisition of Armis for $7.75 billion [6] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services surged 5.8% amid potential acquisition evaluations [6] - BP agreed to sell a 65% stake in its Castrol lubricants business for approximately $6 billion [6] - Micron Technology is anticipated to show significant growth in its upcoming fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report [6] Market Outlook - The "Santa Claus Rally" period is expected to continue into 2026, often seen as a bullish indicator [5] - The U.S. stock markets will also be closed on January 1, 2026, for New Year's Day [6] - Analysts are monitoring economic data and Federal Reserve statements regarding interest rate policy, with expectations for additional rate cuts in the new year [7] - The S&P 500 has gained over 17% year-to-date in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit gains [8]

Scott Croniner joins us from uh city. He's US equity strategist. Scott, not to ask how much you can deadlift, but feel free to offer, you know, [laughter] >> let's just say, Kelly, I can lift my weight, but that's about it.>> Which is looking like a little less than that. All right. So, you do think a more dovish Fed is is a plank of this bull market story.>> Yeah, it's it's kind of interesting. We just published a note that hit a few minutes ago that I I titled uh the data is dead, long live the data. And ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates and resume purchasing Treasury bills has sparked a debate about the U.S. economy's future, with contrasting views from analysts and economists [1]. Group 1: Economic Perspectives - Economist Peter Schiff warns that the Fed's new liquidity measures represent a dangerous return to quantitative easing, predicting that this policy will lead to rising long-term interest rates [2]. - In contrast, institutional investors express optimism, with LPL Financial's Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach stating that the Fed's actions indicate a successful balance of its dual mandate, leading to a "Goldilocks" scenario for the economy [3]. - Gina Bolvin from Bolvin Wealth Management supports this optimistic view, suggesting the Fed is shifting focus from fighting inflation to managing economic risks [4]. Group 2: Fed's Actions and Market Reactions - The Fed plans to purchase approximately $40 billion per month in shorter-maturity Treasuries to smooth volatility in short-term funding markets, a move that has drawn criticism from Schiff [4][5]. - Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank, notes that the Fed is operating in a "data vacuum" due to delayed economic releases and anticipates a leadership change when Chair Powell's term ends in May 2026 [5]. - Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management cautions that the current optimistic sentiment may diminish if investors realize that the path to lower rates is slower than expected [6]. Group 3: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has increased by 17.35% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones index has returned 13.36%, and the Nasdaq Composite has gained 22.68% in the same period [7]. - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) closed at $687.57, up 0.66%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) closed at $627.61, up 0.41% [8].

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a 25 basis point cut, with a potential pause in January due to divisions among Fed governors [1][2] - There is an anticipation of weak retail sales for October, but a more positive outlook for November and the holiday season [2][3] - The consensus for the unemployment rate in 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%, indicating a soft landing for the economy [4][5] Labor Market Insights - Job openings have fluctuated, with a potential drop from 7.5 million to 6 million, which could lead to a rapid increase in the unemployment rate to 6% [6][7] - There has been a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, with figures moving from 4.0% at the beginning of the year to 4.4% in September, indicating a stagnant labor market [8] - Despite concerns, there is an expectation of GDP growth in the range of 1.5% to 2% next year, which may support job growth and stabilize the unemployment rate [9][10] Consumer Spending and Inflation - Compensation growth is expected to rise by 3.5% to 4% next year, which, combined with a low inflation environment of just under 3%, could lead to an increase in consumer spending [10][11] - Concerns remain regarding PCE inflation, driven by immigration policy changes and a tight labor market, particularly affecting lower-income sectors [12] Investment Trends - There is a notable trend in capital expenditure (capex) spending, particularly in equipment investment, with strong demand observed in the auto sector [19][20] - However, there are concerns about structural investment, especially in commercial construction, which may face weaknesses due to excess supply and slowed shifts to electric vehicles (EVs) [22][23] Market Positioning - The strategy for portfolio positioning is to maintain market weight on midcaps and large caps while being underweight on small caps due to concerns over small firm hiring [16][17] - There is a focus on midcaps with strong cash flow growth and large caps, while the momentum trade in mega caps is still considered viable [18]

Group 1 - Global fund managers are holding the lowest cash levels in nearly two decades, with average cash levels falling to 3.7% from 3.8%, the lowest since early 2022 [3][4] - A net 34% of fund managers remain overweight equities, which is below the historical 60% range seen at major market tops, indicating a bullish but not euphoric sentiment [4] - The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey shows that 53% of respondents expect lower inflation and stronger growth over the next year, while 45% identify an AI equity bubble as the biggest tail risk [5][6] Group 2 - The "Long Magnificent 7" trade, which includes major tech stocks like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple, is cited as the most crowded bet by 54% of managers [7] - For the first time in 20 years, a net 20% of managers believe companies are overinvesting, driven by hyperscale AI capital expenditure [6]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase & Co's CEO Jamie Dimon emphasizes that the bank will focus on using AI to enhance efficiency rather than reduce staff numbers, countering concerns about job losses due to automation [2][4]. Group 1: AI and Employment - Dimon states that while AI will reduce workloads in certain areas, it will also create jobs, particularly in data, analytics, and technology infrastructure [2][4]. - He acknowledges that AI could displace up to 80% of jobs in some professions but believes new opportunities will arise elsewhere [5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Dimon maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on the economy, noting that technological innovation historically generates more employment than it replaces [3][4]. - He mentions a weakening in the broader labor market but asserts that the economy is still progressing, describing it as being in a "soft landing" [3][4]. Group 3: AI's Potential - Dimon praises AI's potential, comparing the current AI boom to the internet revolution, and highlights companies like Nvidia as examples of significant technological advancement [3][4]. - He believes AI holds "enormous" potential for breakthroughs in various fields, including medicine and engineering, suggesting that humanity should benefit from these advancements [3][4].