Top economist David Rosenberg has issued a stark warning about the underlying health of the U.S. economy, contrasting a robust headline GDP figure with deteriorating industrial data that he argues signals recessionary weakness comparable to the 2009 financial crisis.The Industrial RealityIn a post on X on Monday, the president of Rosenberg Research highlighted a massive disconnect between official government growth data and on-the-ground industrial activity.While the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) r ...

Key Takeaways In recent years, the start of a new calendar year has also been accompanied by concerns about an impending economic recession; however, most forecasters expect the U.S. to steer clear of an economic downturn in 2026. But whether the U.S. economy sees the "soft landing†that some had forecast remains a question. For example, JPMorgan expects economic growth in the first half of 2026 to be around 3%, primarily driven by the stimulus effects from the OBBBA, but then slowing to between 1% and 2% gr ...

The U.S. stock market is closed today, Thursday, December 25, 2025, in observance of the Christmas Day holiday, providing a pause after a robust, record-setting session on Christmas Eve. Both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will remain fully shut, with normal trading operations set to resume on Friday, December 26, 2025. This holiday closure follows a shortened trading day on Wednesday, December 24, when major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching ne ...

Scott Croniner joins us from uh city. He's US equity strategist. Scott, not to ask how much you can deadlift, but feel free to offer, you know, [laughter] >> let's just say, Kelly, I can lift my weight, but that's about it.>> Which is looking like a little less than that. All right. So, you do think a more dovish Fed is is a plank of this bull market story.>> Yeah, it's it's kind of interesting. We just published a note that hit a few minutes ago that I I titled uh the data is dead, long live the data. And ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates and resume purchasing Treasury bills has sparked a debate about the U.S. economy's future, with contrasting views from analysts and economists [1]. Group 1: Economic Perspectives - Economist Peter Schiff warns that the Fed's new liquidity measures represent a dangerous return to quantitative easing, predicting that this policy will lead to rising long-term interest rates [2]. - In contrast, institutional investors express optimism, with LPL Financial's Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach stating that the Fed's actions indicate a successful balance of its dual mandate, leading to a "Goldilocks" scenario for the economy [3]. - Gina Bolvin from Bolvin Wealth Management supports this optimistic view, suggesting the Fed is shifting focus from fighting inflation to managing economic risks [4]. Group 2: Fed's Actions and Market Reactions - The Fed plans to purchase approximately $40 billion per month in shorter-maturity Treasuries to smooth volatility in short-term funding markets, a move that has drawn criticism from Schiff [4][5]. - Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank, notes that the Fed is operating in a "data vacuum" due to delayed economic releases and anticipates a leadership change when Chair Powell's term ends in May 2026 [5]. - Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management cautions that the current optimistic sentiment may diminish if investors realize that the path to lower rates is slower than expected [6]. Group 3: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has increased by 17.35% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones index has returned 13.36%, and the Nasdaq Composite has gained 22.68% in the same period [7]. - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) closed at $687.57, up 0.66%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) closed at $627.61, up 0.41% [8].

as we bring in our panel, Ian [music] Watt, Wyatt, I'm sorry, Wyatt, chief economist, Huntington Bank, and John Blank, chief equity strategist, economist at Zach's Investment Research. Great to see you both. Um, Ian, I'll start with you as we wait for the Fed tomorrow.I mean, the 25 basis point cut most likely. What do you think is important about tomorrow and why. >> First, we're going to see how hawkish the tone is.Um certainly last time Powell spoke extensively about divisions in the Fed. If it goes to t ...

Group 1 - Global fund managers are holding the lowest cash levels in nearly two decades, with average cash levels falling to 3.7% from 3.8%, the lowest since early 2022 [3][4] - A net 34% of fund managers remain overweight equities, which is below the historical 60% range seen at major market tops, indicating a bullish but not euphoric sentiment [4] - The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey shows that 53% of respondents expect lower inflation and stronger growth over the next year, while 45% identify an AI equity bubble as the biggest tail risk [5][6] Group 2 - The "Long Magnificent 7" trade, which includes major tech stocks like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple, is cited as the most crowded bet by 54% of managers [7] - For the first time in 20 years, a net 20% of managers believe companies are overinvesting, driven by hyperscale AI capital expenditure [6]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase & Co's CEO Jamie Dimon emphasizes that the bank will focus on using AI to enhance efficiency rather than reduce staff numbers, countering concerns about job losses due to automation [2][4]. Group 1: AI and Employment - Dimon states that while AI will reduce workloads in certain areas, it will also create jobs, particularly in data, analytics, and technology infrastructure [2][4]. - He acknowledges that AI could displace up to 80% of jobs in some professions but believes new opportunities will arise elsewhere [5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Dimon maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on the economy, noting that technological innovation historically generates more employment than it replaces [3][4]. - He mentions a weakening in the broader labor market but asserts that the economy is still progressing, describing it as being in a "soft landing" [3][4]. Group 3: AI's Potential - Dimon praises AI's potential, comparing the current AI boom to the internet revolution, and highlights companies like Nvidia as examples of significant technological advancement [3][4]. - He believes AI holds "enormous" potential for breakthroughs in various fields, including medicine and engineering, suggesting that humanity should benefit from these advancements [3][4].

Let me start with I did agree with the decision. I thought it was appropriate to take another bit off the policy rate. We have an economy that has been remarkably resilient, really weathered so many different things, and still consumers continue to spend.Businesses continue to invest. We continue to have good growth, but we still have inflation printing above our 2% target. And we need to get that down is gradually coming down, but is still too high.And importantly, we have a labour market that relative to ...

Market Overview - The core stock market ETFs, particularly the Semiconductors Sector ETF (SMH) and the Biotechnology Sector ETF (IBB), show optimism similar to the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and NASDAQ 100, with SMH reaching a new all-time high while IBB remains below its peak from 2021 [1] - The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is just below its all-time high established two weeks ago, indicating mixed price action that is more neutral than bullish [3] Sector Performance - The Retail Sector ETF (XRT) and Regional Banks ETF (KRE) are identified as the weakest links among core ETFs [2] - The Transportation Sector ETF (IYT) is barely above the 50-Day Moving Average and has been underperforming relative to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), indicating a divergence in performance [3][4] - The IYT has been stuck in the middle of the monthly high and low, with two closes above the 50-DMA needed for a positive outlook [5] Economic Drivers - The underperformance of the U.S. Transportation Sector can be attributed to structural, cyclical, and investor-sentiment factors, including weak freight/demand growth and rising operational costs [4][8] - A shift in the economy towards services and digital goods is reducing the growth of heavy goods movement, impacting transportation sector performance [8] - Investor perception of a potential slowdown or mild recession is leading to early discounting of transportation stocks compared to other sectors [8]