Global Research ab 8 August 2025 Diverging S&D outlooks between aluminium & alumina After a detailed review of the S&D outlook for the aluminium supply chain we remain structurally positive on aluminium fundamentals driven by limited supply growth, but cautions on the fundamental outlook for alumina. Preferred stocks for aluminum exposure are Hydro & Press Metal (BUY) vs Alcoa & S32 (Neutral). Aluminium: Limited supply growth creates +ve outlook Aluminium Indonesia supply in focus Primary aluminium demand h ...

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Saudi Arabia raised crude prices for a second-consecutive month, signaling confidence in demand for its barrels as OPEC+ continues to ramp up supply https://t.co/CBmbZe7tvz ...

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Walk us through the details of this Opec+ decision. Yeah, good morning, Kristie. Basically, Opec+ had a select group of the countries there.Eight of them had taken off voluntarily, about 2.2% million barrels a day of production. And what they're doing is they're unwinding those cuts now. They're bringing that oil back into the market. That won't bring all the opec+ oil back to the market because there are still cuts in place.That will be the next phase of what they need to decide on. But what they're doing ...

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter reported earnings per share (EPS) was $2.61 compared to $0.48 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant increase [13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.31 in the second quarter versus $1.73 in the prior year, indicating a decrease [14] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $376 million in the quarter compared to $519 million last year [14] - The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS outlook of approximately $7.75 for the legacy standalone Bunge, excluding the second half earnings from the corn milling business due to its sale [12][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Processing results in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, were better than expected due to large soybean crops and farmer selling [11][15] - Fine and Specialty Oils were negatively impacted by uncertainty related to U.S. Biofuel policy, affecting performance across all regions [15] - Milling results improved in North America but were offset by lower results in South America [15] - Corporate expenses decreased primarily due to performance-based compensation [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 margins in Brazil improved year over year, driven by a record bean crop, while margins in Argentina also showed improvement due to strong farmer selling [31] - In Europe, Q2 margins were good but down slightly from a strong prior year, with expectations of tougher conditions in the second half due to competing imports [33] - Q2 margins in China improved but were still slightly down from the prior year, with expectations for lower margins in the second half [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the combination with Viterra is seen as a pivotal moment, creating a premier agribusiness solutions company [5][10] - The company is focused on capturing cost savings and commercial opportunities post-merger, with a strong emphasis on integration planning [9][10] - The strategy includes ongoing portfolio optimization and leveraging synergies from the merger to enhance operational efficiencies [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a strong path ahead with the integration of Viterra and the potential for operational synergies [8][26] - The company is navigating a complex macro environment but believes its diversified asset base positions it well to capture value [24][25] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for improved processing results, particularly in Q4, driven by better crush margins [22][59] Other Important Information - The company generated $693 million of adjusted funds from operations year to date, with $560 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [19] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.1 times at the end of the second quarter, indicating a strong liquidity position with $8.7 billion in committed credit facilities [20] - Following the merger with Viterra, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A minus, reflecting an improved business risk profile [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on soy crush performance and outlook? - Management noted that Q2 outperformance was driven by rising vegetable oil values and lower bean costs, with expectations for improved margins in Q4 [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for the SREs and their impact? - Management expects a decision on SREs in August or September, with a belief that the administration understands their potential impact on RVO [35][36] Question: Can you clarify the combined company guidance including Viterra? - Management emphasized the strategic rationale for the merger and expressed confidence in the combined company's ability to navigate market challenges [42][45] Question: What is the outlook for the oil segment? - The oil segment was impacted by lower energy demand and uncertainty around biofuels policy, but management expects improvement in the second half [61] Question: How are the organic investments progressing? - Key projects like Morristown and Destrehan are on track, with commissioning expected in Q4 and early next year [64][66] Question: What is the outlook for the milling side in the U.S.? - Demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by good economics in the animal protein segment, with North America enhancing export capabilities [70][71] Question: How does the company view the interplay between SBO and other seed oils? - Management sees opportunities in offering a full suite of seed oils to customers, adapting to market demands [86] Question: What are the implications of recent global trade developments? - Management noted that China's actions reflect a focus on food security and a shift towards new import options, indicating a dynamic global market [92][93]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Memory Semiconductor Industry, specifically focusing on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), DRAM, and NAND sectors [1][3][30] Core Insights and Arguments - **HBM Pricing Trends**: - HBM pricing power is expected to decline in 2026 due to increased competition and supply, with HBM3e 12-hi price negotiations likely to be lower [2][17] - Current pricing for HBM3 has decreased by approximately 15%, with expectations for HBM3E pricing to range between $1.56 and $1.74 per Gb in 2026, down from $1.88 per Gb in 2025 [17] - Samsung is anticipated to rejoin the Nvidia supply chain, which could lead to further pricing pressures [15][19] - **DRAM Market Dynamics**: - A "double dip" cycle is confirmed, driven by demand rather than supply, with expectations of a downturn continuing into the first half of 2026 [3][21] - Customers are resisting price hikes for 3Q contracts, indicating a cautious demand outlook [25] - The overall DRAM market is projected to experience slight oversupply into 1H26, with a potential downturn in pricing [26][27] - **NAND Market Conditions**: - NAND margins were negative in 2Q, with expectations for a mixed pricing outlook in 3Q and 4Q [4][31] - Demand for NAND is expected to remain muted, particularly in the smartphone segment, while server demand remains strong [31] - YMTC is expanding capacity, which may influence market dynamics in 2026 [31] Additional Important Insights - **Stock Performance**: - The market is currently favoring Samsung Electronics despite a preliminary earnings miss, contrasting with the negative reactions to strong guidance from competitors like Hynix and Micron [10][13] - The relationship between valuation and fundamentals is highlighted, suggesting that lower valuations may not require strong fundamentals for stock performance [5] - **Future Outlook**: - The memory market is expected to face significant oversupply in 2026, which could lead to further pricing declines [19][21] - The anticipated growth in HBM demand is projected at 67% YoY from 2025 to 2026, but supply is expected to outpace this demand, leading to a sufficiency ratio of only 29% [20][21] - **Strategic Recommendations**: - Preference for Samsung Electronics is noted due to its potential to capitalize on the evolving HBM landscape and its competitive positioning [5][15] - Analysts recommend focusing on value tech stocks rather than the most expensive memory stocks, as earnings growth is expected to shift [13] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the memory semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on HBM, DRAM, and NAND markets, along with strategic stock recommendations.

Economic System - Capitalism is defined as an economic system where private businesses own capital goods [1] - Production in capitalism is driven by supply and demand, not central planning [1]

Market Supply and Demand - A 6% daily candle on July 10th indicates a market running out of supply, suggesting potential for further price increases [1] - A 2.45% wick down on July 25th, resulting from 80,000 BTC being sold, demonstrates strong demand depth [1] - Historically, similar sales volumes would have caused a 20% price decrease, highlighting increased market resilience [1] Sentiment Analysis - The author suggests the market is not bullish enough, implying potential for further upward price movement [1]