With that as background, let’s start building our simple trading system based on my 7 Market Rules, starting with #6: Fundamentals win in the end. In the past I’ve mentioned something I call the Vodka Vacuity, the reality there are no Absolut(e)s in market analysis. But there is one: Eventually, markets come down to supply and demand. No, I don’t mean government related estimates and imaginary numbers, but rather real fundamentals shown to us through spot (cash) price, basis (differential between spot/cash ...

News reports in Washington say China is considering buying an additional 8 million metric tonses of US soybeans this year. However, the timeline and certainty of these purchases remain unclear. From a technical standpoint, the US has the fiscal capacity to fulfill this order, but doing so would nearly exhaust all remaining export supplies.Assuming the USDA's current export projections are correct, if China were to buy an additional 8 million metric tonses of US beans, it would likely force other internation ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $131 million, a net loss of $10 million, and EBITDA of $20 million [4][8] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $606 million, with an operating income of $129 million and net income of $99 million, translating to $9.33 per common unit [8] - EBITDA for the full year was $211 million, with a distribution of $10.54 per common unit [5][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ammonia production for Q4 was 140,000 gross tons, with 62,000 net tons available for sale, and UAN production was 169,000 tons [9] - UAN sales volumes were lower due to planned turnaround and startup issues, but prices increased by approximately 55% compared to Q4 2024, while ammonia prices rose by approximately 32% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong pricing for nitrogen fertilizers throughout Q4, despite lower production and sales volumes [5][9] - The USDA estimates a record crop year for 2025, with corn yields of nearly 187 bushels per acre on approximately 99 million acres planted [13] - U.S. inventory carryout levels for corn are expected to be above the 10-year average, while soybean levels are below [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving reliability and production rates through debottlenecking projects at both plants, aiming for utilization rates above 95% [16][17] - Plans include expanding DEF production and load-out capacity, and a feedstock diversification project at the Coffeyville facility [17] - The board has reserved capital for future projects, expecting to spend over the next two years [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the spring planting season, anticipating strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers due to depleted soil nitrogen levels [13][30] - Geopolitical tensions and natural gas supply issues in Europe are seen as risks that could impact nitrogen fertilizer supplies [14][15] - The company expects ammonia utilization rates to be between 95% and 100% in Q1 2026, with direct operating expenses projected at $57 million to $62 million [11][12] Other Important Information - Direct operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $81 million, including $14 million in turnaround expenses [10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $117 million, consisting of $69 million in cash and $48 million available under the ABL facility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are you seeing in terms of UAN imports? - Management noted a decrease in imports from Trinidad due to a plant being down, keeping the UAN market tight [22] Question: Is current deferred revenue down due to less product pre-sold? - Management clarified it was a timing issue, with more activity expected in January and February [25] Question: Will ammonia and UAN pricing increase sequentially heading into Q1 2026? - Management confirmed an uptick in prices based on the current book of business [26] Question: Is the air separator issue at Coffeyville resolved? - Management expressed confidence that issues have been addressed and is in discussions with the service provider for future operations [27][28] Question: How does acreage down for corn affect demand? - Management remains optimistic about demand due to nitrogen depletion in soil and supply constraints [29][30]

The surge in AI-related demand for DRAM — or Dynamic Random Access Memory — is tightening supply and pushing up prices in parts of the chip industry. Consumer-facing companies are being forced to either curtail supply or raise prices due to exploding costs.@rwang07, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, joins @thestalwart and @tracyalloway on the Odd Lots podcast to discuss what this means for the consumer https://t.co/qoGXjc1GMM ...

The surge in AI-related demand for DRAM — or Dynamic Random Access Memory — is tightening supply and pushing up prices in parts of the chip industry. Consumer-facing companies are being forced to either curtail supply or raise prices due to exploding costs. Ray Wang, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, joins Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway on the Odd Lots podcast to discuss what this means for the consumer. -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so yo ...

The surge in AI-related demand for DRAM — or Dynamic Random Access Memory — is tightening supply and pushing up prices in parts of the chip industry. Consumer-facing companies are being forced to either curtail supply or raise prices due to exploding costs. Ray Wang, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, joins Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway on the Odd Lots podcast to discuss what this means for the consumer. -------- Like this video? Subscribe to Bloomberg Technology on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrM ...

Oil consolidates in the morning Asian session, but could be weighed by prospects of OPEC+ supply increases. https://t.co/pSkcVMzJOx ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology is currently experiencing a cyclical upturn that may last longer than previous cycles, raising questions about its future position in the semiconductor industry compared to Nvidia and Intel [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Micron's revenue increased approximately 57% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, ending November 27, 2025, with adjusted earnings soaring 169% year-over-year to $5.5 billion [5]. - The company has sold out its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply for all of 2026, indicating strong demand similar to Nvidia's challenges in meeting GPU demand [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Micron's market capitalization stands at $463 billion, with a current share price of $411.48, reflecting a significant increase in value over the past year, where its stock price has more than quadrupled [7]. - The competitive landscape includes significant threats from Samsung and SK Hynix, which have substantial market shares in memory chips, raising concerns about Micron's ability to maintain its position [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There are concerns about Micron's cyclical nature, with fears that a memory supply-demand imbalance could lead to a rapid decline in share price, as evidenced by its forward earnings trading at only 11.8 times [9]. - Despite cyclical concerns, there is speculation that the demand for AI applications will sustain the need for Micron's HBM longer than previous memory chip cycles, potentially positioning Micron more like Nvidia than Intel in the future [12].

Core Insights - The price of copper is approaching record highs, driven by supply and demand fundamentals, particularly in applications like power grids, electrification, and AI infrastructure [1] - Projections indicate potential copper shortfalls of 7 to 10 million metric tons by 2040, raising concerns about supply disruptions [1] - Investment opportunities in the copper mining sector are expected to grow significantly over the next decade due to increasing demand and supply constraints [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper's critical role in various applications, including AI infrastructure, is a major factor in its rising demand [1] - The ongoing supply disruptions contribute to a pessimistic outlook on future copper stockpiles, despite high demand [1] - The combination of persistent demand and projected supply deficits creates potential investment opportunities in the copper mining sector [1] Investment Opportunities - Sprott offers investment avenues through ETFs, such as the Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP), which provides exposure to both physical copper and mining companies [1] - The Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (COPJ) focuses on smaller copper miners, which may present strong long-term growth potential given the sustained demand for copper [1]

Core Insights - Chevron is processing its first shipments of Venezuelan oil since the arrest of Nicholas Maduro, with four tankers arriving monthly at the Pasigula refinery [1] - The Pasigula refinery has a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day, making the arrival of oil shipments crucial for efficient operations [2][3] - Increased oil flow from Venezuela is expected to lower costs for American consumers and improve the operational efficiency of refineries [4][5] Company Operations - Chevron has been operating in Venezuela for a long time, increasing production from 50,000 barrels per day four years ago to 250,000 barrels currently [7] - The company has joint ventures with PDVSA and is actively involved in refining operations, which positions it favorably compared to competitors who view Venezuelan operations as too risky [6] - The influx of Venezuelan oil is anticipated to drive down gasoline prices in the U.S., with current prices in Mississippi reported at $2.39 per gallon [8][9] Market Impact - The additional supply of Venezuelan oil is expected to benefit both the Venezuelan economy and American consumers by reducing fuel prices [9][10] - Chevron is investing in refining capabilities in the Gulf Coast, contrasting with the challenges faced by refiners in California [10]