【现货方面】 5月28日，PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，贸易商商谈为主，现货基差走强。本周及下周 主港货主流在09+185成交，宁波货在09+178附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4835~4925附近。下周仓单 在09+180有成交，6月中上仓单在09+190有成交。主流现货基差在09+184。 【行情展望】 5月下旬PTA装置陆续重启，而后期PTA检修计划尚未明确，叠加聚酯大厂减产情绪强烈，PTA供需边际 转弱。叠加成本端油价支撑有限，PTA上方承压明显，但原料PX供需偏紧，低加工费下PTA支撑偏强， 关注下游聚酯减产幅度。策略上，TA短期在4600-4800区间震荡，低位支撑偏强；TA9-1反套对待。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【供需方面】 供应：上周PTA负荷提升 ...

Market Overview - On May 21, PTA futures experienced a slight upward trend, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation and a stable basis for spot prices. The trading range for May cargo was between 4855 and 4935, with some transactions slightly higher, while June cargo was traded at a basis of 120-140 [1][4]. Cost Analysis - As of May 21, the PTA spot processing fee was around 355 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 356 CNY/ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: PTA operating rates increased to 76.9%, up by 4.4% from the previous week [3]. - Demand: The comprehensive operating rate for polyester rose to 95%, an increase of 0.8%. Despite forecasts of production cuts due to high raw material prices, the demand for polyester remains relatively stable, with low inventory levels in the polyester factories. The price of polyester yarn has shown mixed trends, but overall sales remain weak [3]. Market Outlook - In late May, PTA facilities are expected to restart, but future maintenance plans remain unclear. With rising raw material prices and increasing losses in downstream polyester products, there is a tendency for production cuts among some polyester factories. This has led to a weakening expectation in the supply-demand balance for PTA, resulting in a noticeable decline in basis this week. However, following the maintenance of a PTA facility in East China, the basis has stabilized somewhat. Short-term oil price increases are limited, and the intention for production cuts in downstream polyester factories puts pressure on PTA prices. The strategy suggests limited downside potential for TA as long as the supply-demand tightness persists and oil prices do not fall significantly, with a focus on support around 4600 [4].