1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry allocation has reached historical extremes, with active equity - type public funds in 25Q3 mainly adding positions in ChiNext component stocks and the technology sector, and increasing allocations in communication, media, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment while reducing positions in domestic - demand consumption sectors [4]. - The congestion level of the TMT technology sector represented by electronics has reached a historical high, with the electronic position ratio in 25Q3 reaching 25.7% and the TMT full - industry chain position ratio reaching 40%, and the margin trading balance ratio also hitting new highs [6]. - After the high congestion of the TMT technology sector represented by electronics, the subsequent market and observation indicators need to be discussed, including tracking the fundamentals, the change of PPI, and the trends of industrial capital [7]. - The clues for subsequent style switching are to track PPI and pay attention to the opportunities for the clearance of chips in undervalued reversal - type industries during the bottom - rising stage of inflation [8]. - In the context of the upsurge in index - based investment, the scale of ETFs remains high, and the equity positions of fixed - income + funds have increased [9]. - The net value performance of active equity - type funds shows that the money - making effect has continued to improve under high positions, but as the net value recovers to the cost line, public funds face greater redemption pressure, which is expected to ease with the establishment of a slow - bull market [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Allocation Reaches Historical Extremes - **A - share Plate Allocation**: In 25Q3, active equity - type public funds added positions in the ChiNext and reduced positions in the Main Board and the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The Main Board accounted for 49.1% (down 5 percentage points from 25Q2), the ChiNext accounted for 17.6% (up 3.9 percentage points), and the Science and Technology Innovation Board accounted for 13.7% (up 1.9 percentage points). The configuration coefficients of the ChiNext increased by 0.16, while those of the Main Board and the Science and Technology Innovation Board decreased by 0.05 and 0.26 respectively [13]. - **Hong Kong Stock Allocation**: In 25Q3, the allocation proportion of Hong Kong - connected stocks reached a high and then declined, with the structure shifting from technology to medicine, non - ferrous metals, and new energy. The top five industries with increased allocation proportions in Hong Kong - connected stocks were commerce and trade retail (+6.3%), medicine and biology (+3.3%), non - ferrous metals (+1.7%), power equipment (+0.7%), and real estate (+0.7%). The top three industries with decreased allocation proportions were social services (-2.3%), communication (-2.1%), and light manufacturing (-1.9%) [16]. - **Style Allocation**: In 25Q3, active equity - type public funds added positions in the constituent stocks of the ChiNext Index and the CSI 300, with their configuration coefficients rising by 0.12 and 0.07 respectively. The configuration coefficients of the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Guozheng 2000 decreased by 0.21, 0.06, and 0.07 respectively [20]. - **A - share Major Category Plate Allocation**: Active equity - type public funds added positions in the technology (TMT) sector, with a configuration coefficient of 1.79 (up 0.22 from 25Q2) and a configuration proportion of 40%. Other sectors were generally reduced in positions [21]. - **First - level Industry Allocation**: In 25Q3, industries with increased positions included communication, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, etc., while industries with reduced positions included household appliances, social services, and automobiles. For example, the position proportion of electronics reached 25.7% (up 6.9 percentage points from 25Q2), and the position proportion of communication reached 9.3% (up 3.9 percentage points) [24]. 3.2 Subsequent Market and Observation Indicators of the Highly Congested TMT Technology Sector Represented by Electronics - **Historical Comparison of Single - Industry Position Ratios**: Since 2010, the maximum position ratio of public funds in a single industry has almost all been around 20%, with a total of 7 times. In 25Q3, the electronic position ratio reached 25.7%, exceeding the experience upper limit of 20% [40]. - **TMT Industry Chain Position Ratio**: In 25Q3, the TMT industry chain position ratio accelerated to 40%, reaching a historical high, but the configuration coefficient was only 1.8, still far from the level in 2015 [41]. - **Leveraged Funds and Market Main - Line Switching**: In the past, when leveraged funds and active equity adjusted positions in resonance and their allocations to a single industry reached high points simultaneously, it was easy to trigger a market main - line switch. Currently, the margin trading balance ratio of the electronics industry has exceeded 15%, setting a new historical high [47]. - **Stock Performance after Position Peaks**: After the industry position ratio reaches its peak, the absolute/relative returns face challenges in 2 - 3 quarters. The position ratio usually takes 3 - 10 quarters to fall from the highest point to the lowest point, and each adjustment will fall from around 20% to around 10% or even single - digit levels [50]. 3.3 ETF Scale Remains High, and the Equity Positions of Fixed - income + Funds Increase - **ETF Situation**: In 25Q3, the total scale of stock - type ETFs exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, and the proportion of ETF stock - holding market value was 3.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from 25Q2. From July to August, ETFs were generally net - redeemed, and from late August to mid - October, they began to have net inflows. The shares of most broad - based ETFs declined, while the shares of some industry ETFs such as banks, securities, and innovative drugs increased [9]. - **Fixed - income + Funds**: In 25Q3, as the bond market entered a volatile period and the equity market continued to recover, fixed - income + funds increased their equity allocation. The single - quarter stock - holding market value increased by nearly 100 billion yuan, and the equity position increased by 2.4 percentage points to 9.9% [9]. 3.4 Total Perspective: The Money - making Effect of Public Funds under High Positions Continues to Improve, but Public Funds Face Greater Redemption Pressure as the Net Value Recovers to the Cost Line - **Net Value Performance**: Since the beginning of 2025, public funds have maintained high positions, and the money - making effect has continued to improve. The median net value increase of active equity - type public funds since the beginning of 2025 was 26.9%. The overall positions of ordinary stock - type, partial - stock hybrid, and flexible - allocation funds in 25Q3 increased by 0.7, 1.0, and 2.3 percentage points respectively, approaching historical high levels [9]. - **Redemption Pressure**: As the net value recovers to the cost line, public funds face greater redemption pressure. In 25Q3, the net redemption shares of active equity funds further expanded, with new fund issuances of 1.19 billion shares and active equity stock redemptions of 231.9 billion shares, resulting in a single - quarter net redemption of 22 billion shares [9].