Core Viewpoint - The demand for terminal procurement is increasing, leading to a continued rise in thermal coal prices. The release of coal production capacity is affected as the double festival approaches, coupled with the upcoming maintenance of the Daqin Line, resulting in increased replenishment demand from terminal power plants and a gradual release of non-electric coal demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Coal Market Dynamics - The coal production capacity release is impacted as the double festival approaches, and the Daqin Line will undergo maintenance, which is expected to support coal prices in the short term [1][2][3] - The coking coal market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with policies against overproduction providing some support to coking coal prices, although the profitability of downstream steel mills is narrowing, leading to cautious market sentiment [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the market, with significant price increases observed in coal and power equipment sectors, amidst a mixed performance in the equity market [2][3] - The average market turnover reached 2.5 trillion yuan, with daily financing purchases fluctuating around 260 billion yuan, indicating increased market rotation and the coal sector outperforming the broader market index [2][3] Group 3: Policy and Economic Factors - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imported simulation chips from the United States, and a joint announcement of a growth stabilization plan for the automotive industry was made, which positively impacted related sectors [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points also contributed to a favorable environment for the coal and related industries [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Coal and coke supply and demand are both increasing, and downstream enterprises are starting pre - holiday stockpiling, which supports the confidence of the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Market Situation - Last week, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated strongly as a whole, and the price center shifted upward. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the dot - plot indicated two more cuts this year. In the spot market, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise coke prices due to rising costs [3] - Recently, due to the severe air quality situation in Tangshan, coking enterprises were required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to September 30th. However, the current production restrictions are mainly voluntary, and the specific plan is not clear [3] Production and Operation Data - Last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot - metal output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 million tons, and steel mills as a whole did not reduce production [3] Market Outlook - In the coal mine sector, last week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and output continued to rise. Although the policy is expected to improve, the market is worried about coal mine production cuts due to the over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia. In the short term, there is still room for a slight increase in production in major coal - producing areas, and the market will remain strong before the holiday [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, leading to short - term profit - taking in the index. The technology sector still dominates the market, but with the holiday approaching, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may have a high of 1.8% without incremental negative news, and the short - term downward movement is limited. The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level shock consolidation, and silver fluctuates in the 41 - 42.5 - dollar range [2]. - The EC (European line) of the container shipping index continues to decline, and the steel price drops with the convergence of the coil - rebar spread [2]. - The iron ore price is supported by the recovery of shipments, the increase in hot metal, and restocking demand. The coal and coke futures have a rebound expectation [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disturbances and interest rate cuts [2]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors like supply - demand expectations, new device production, and检修 (maintenance) [2]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply prospects, inventory, and market demand [2]. - The prices of special and new - energy products are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions [2] Group 3: Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The overseas interest rate cut led to a rise and then a fall in A - shares. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The capital situation remains tight, and the bond futures have a slight correction. It is recommended to operate within the range and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought at a low price below 3600 dollars (820 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on silver [2]. Black - **Steel**: Try short - term long positions during the correction and shrink the coil - rebar spread of the January contract. Do long - short operations between iron ore and hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Do long on the 2601 contract within the 780 - 850 range and go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Do long on the 2601 contracts of coking coal, coke, etc., within the corresponding price ranges and conduct long - short arbitrage [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The prices are affected by various factors, and different contracts have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Tin**: The main contract is expected to operate between 285000 - 265000 [2][3]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of strong short - term drivers, and attention should be paid to refinery start - up trends. Options can be considered after the volatility increases [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different products have different operation suggestions based on supply - demand, production, and price trends [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oils**: The prices are affected by factors such as policies and supply - demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply pressure and market demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply prospects and inventory, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. Special and New - Energy - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass, rubber, etc. are affected by factors such as production and sales and macro - drivers, and most are recommended to wait and see [2]. - **New - Energy Products**: The prices of polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions, and corresponding operation suggestions are given [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is under inventory pressure, with increased contradictions in the building materials fundamentals and pressured prices, while the plate demand remains resilient, and the price is relatively strong. After the Fed's interest rate cut, policies and expectations support steel prices. The iron ore market has significant growth in global shipments, a slight decline in arrivals, high pig iron production, and falling steel mill profits. The coking coal production resumes slowly, and the double - coking spot rebounds. The power coal market has rising prices in the producing areas due to increased demand, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and supply - abundant in the long - term [1][3][5][7] Market Analysis Steel - Futures and spot: Steel futures prices fluctuated. Spot steel sales were generally weak, with better low - price transactions. The national building materials sales volume was 10,270 tons. Steel production and inventory increased. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials face increased fundamental contradictions and price pressure due to inventory. Plate demand is resilient, and prices are relatively strong. Fed's interest rate cut, anti - involution policies, holiday restocking expectations, and environmental protection policies support steel prices [1] Iron Ore - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated. In the spot market, prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports had slight fluctuations. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 1.265 million tons, a 9.25% decrease from the previous day. The forward spot trading volume was 965,000 tons (7 transactions), a 21.54% decrease, with 545,000 tons from mines. - Supply and demand logic: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly, arrivals decreased slightly, pig iron production was high, and steel mill profits continued to decline. Considering the holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption is resilient. Attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on arrivals and steel mills' pre - holiday restocking rhythm [3] Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - Futures and spot: Double - coking futures main contracts fluctuated. After the coke price cut, coking profits shrank, and production was relatively stable. This week, coking coal production growth slowed, inventory was basically decreasing, some mines were affected by environmental protection and over - production inspections, and Mongolian coal imports remained high. - Supply and demand logic: For coke, after the price cut, production in most areas was stable except in Tangshan. Downstream demand was resilient. For coking coal, downstream restocking demand was released before the National Day, inventory decreased continuously. With the Fed's interest rate cut and domestic policy expectations, double - coking is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term [5] Thermal Coal - Futures and spot: In the producing areas, coal prices continued to rise. Demand from the chemical and cement industries and civilian demand increased. With the rise in port prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of platforms and coal yards increased, and most mines had more coal - pulling trucks and a strong willingness to raise prices. In the port market, sentiment was good, some traders were reluctant to sell due to high shipping costs and tight resources, and prices of some high - quality coal varieties increased. The price decline of domestic coal narrowed, imported high - calorie coal was stable, and low - calorie coal prices rebounded, narrowing the price gap between domestic and imported coal. - Supply and demand logic: Production in the producing areas is gradually recovering, and daily power coal consumption is decreasing. The price will fluctuate in the short - term, and the supply will be abundant in the long - term. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7] Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [4] Double - Coking - Coking coal: Oscillation - Coke: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "volatile" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizing crude steel reduction and the approaching military parade leading to production restrictions, the black building materials sector is still subject to short - term disturbances. After the military parade, with low inventory in the industrial chain and restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebounds. However, weak terminal demand during the peak season may limit the upside space [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - The steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizes crude steel reduction, and the approaching military parade restricts production. This has a negative impact on the demand for furnace materials, causing the prices of coal, coke, and ore to decline during the day, which in turn drags down steel prices. At night, the sector remains under pressure. After the military parade, steel mills are expected to resume production, and with the pre - National Day restocking demand, the sector may rise [1] 2. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected [2][9] - Demand: Iron water production decreased slightly. As the military parade approaches, steel mills in Hebei will gradually enter maintenance, and iron water production is expected to decline, but the impact is limited. After the military parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2][9] - Inventory: This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2][9] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][10] 3. Carbon Element - Coke: As the military parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. In the short term, the coke supply remains tight. Although price increases are difficult to implement, prices are supported before the military parade. After the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [2][11] - Coking coal: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the downward price space is expected to be limited [2][11] 4. Alloys - Manganese silicon: Currently, the inventory pressure of manganese silicon manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and prices are under significant downward pressure in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [2][16] - Ferrosilicon: The current inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manufacturers is not large, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand relationship will become looser, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of power costs in major production areas [2][17] 5. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are high. After trading the delivery contradictions, the far - month contracts still offer a premium. In the medium - to - long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed. If prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline with fluctuations [3][12][13] 6. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the decline in the futures market, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline, driving capacity reduction [3][15] 7. Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the futures market is weak. Before and after the military parade, both supply and demand will be affected. In the short term, the futures market may continue to adjust weakly. After the military parade, the release of restocking demand during the peak season may support prices [8] - Iron ore: Shipments and arrivals increased, and port inventory decreased slightly. The demand is at a high level, and the supply and inventory are stable. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9] - Scrap steel: The supply decreased, and the demand from both EAF and blast furnaces declined. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] - Coke: It is difficult to implement price increases, and the supply has tightened. Before the military parade, the price is supported, and after the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [11] - Coking coal: The supply has tightened, and the market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to remain stable before the military parade [11] - Glass: The mid - stream sales pressure has squeezed the upstream production and sales. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [12][13] - Soda ash: The supply has been slightly disturbed, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Manganese silicon: The black chain declined, and the futures price was weak. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price has significant downward pressure [16] - Ferrosilicon: Market confidence is insufficient, and the futures price center has moved down. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price center will tend to decline [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction in the steel spot market is not significant. Demand shows some resilience despite being weak, and low inventory eases supply pressure. The cost increase drives up the steel price center, and low inventory also increases price elasticity. The steel price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and a bullish trading strategy is recommended, while paying attention to demand changes and supply - side policy implementation [27]. - In the coke market, there is a potential for four rounds of price increases, and additional increases depend on the situation of coking coal. In the coking coal market, the low - point of valuation within the year has been reached, and the future situation depends on the implementation of coal over - production policies and the impact of imported coal [56][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Demand and Inventory - **Rebar**: Affected by hot and rainy weather, rebar demand is weak, and the apparent demand has declined month - on - month. However, the demand is expected to improve month - on - month after August. Production remains at a relatively low level, inventory depletion has slowed down, and the absolute inventory value is still low, which supports the price [6]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Demand remains stable with some resilience. Production has declined from its high, and the inventory is also at a low level [9]. Iron Water Production - Steel mills are profitable, and with low overall inventory, the motivation for blast furnace production cuts is insufficient. Iron water production remains high, strongly supporting the demand for furnace materials. During the off - season, the negative feedback pressure in the market is small, and as the cost rises significantly, the steel price center gradually moves up. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [11]. Industry Conditions - **Construction industry**: From January to June, real estate investment, sales area, and new construction area decreased by 11.2%, 3.5%, and 20.0% year - on - year respectively, remaining weak. Policy stimulus needs to be strengthened. Infrastructure investment continues to play a supporting role, but its growth rate has declined [17]. - **Manufacturing industry**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, rising for two consecutive months but still below 50. With the PPI in the negative range for nearly 3 years, the "anti - involution" expectation has increased significantly. Recently, the prices of major industrial products have rebounded, which may stimulate restocking demand, but the actual performance remains to be seen [21]. Export - From January to June, China's cumulative steel exports reached 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, exports were 9.678 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%. Although exports face some pressure to decline due to tariff policies, the overall level will remain high due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the continued overseas demand [24]. Coke Market Market Contradiction - Currently, iron water production remains at an inverse - seasonal high and is expected to be sustainable. Since June, the cost of coking coal has soared, leading to a significant deterioration in coking plant profits, which are significantly lower than steel - making profits. As a result, there is a temporary shortage of coke supply [49]. Trade and Inventory - Even after two rounds of price increases, the current coke futures price shows a significant premium, which will stimulate trade demand. Port coke inventory has been decreasing, and there is potential for restocking. The continuous reduction of visible coke inventory provides motivation for price increases [51][54]. Market Outlook - Overall, the spot price of coke has increased for the second round. Considering the high - level and resilient iron water production and the poor profitability of coking enterprises, as well as the potential for restocking after the significant reduction of carbon element inventory, there is room for coke prices to continue to rise following the cost of coking coal. It is expected that there will be four rounds of price increases, and additional increases depend on the situation of coking coal [56]. Coking Coal Market Supply - Since July, some previously shut - down coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, but overall production recovery is slow due to heavy rain and mine face changes. In Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, production recovery is limited due to environmental inspections, but it is expected to gradually increase as coal prices rebound. The suspension of Mongolian coal customs clearance during the Nadam Fair has led to a significant decline in port inventory, but the daily vehicle traffic at the Ganqimaodu port has returned to over a thousand, and imports are expected to increase [60][63]. Price and Market Outlook - The price of Mongolian coal has risen in resonance with the futures market. The narrowing price difference between domestic and foreign coal restricts the further rise of coking coal prices. The power coal price is under pressure as daily consumption peaks. Overall, the low - point of coking coal valuation within the year has been reached, and the future situation depends on the implementation of coal over - production policies and the impact of imported coal [62][65][69]. Ferroalloy Market Supply - After the price rebound, ferroalloy production has gradually increased, but at a relatively slow rate, indicating a rational production side. Attention should be paid to whether the supply will expand rapidly to an oversupply situation if the futures price continues to rise [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-shares continue to feature sector rotation with multiple hotspots, and the index is rising. It remains in a pattern where it is easier to rise than to fall, awaiting more macro positive signals [3][13]. - The latest US retail data for June showed a 0.6% month-on-month increase, exceeding expectations, indicating the continued resilience of the US economy. The US dollar index is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1][17]. - The bond market has limited upside potential and is expected to remain volatile recently, with potential for a rebound after the Politburo meeting in July [2][22]. - The five major steel products continued a slight destocking trend this week. The destocking of coils accelerated slightly, while the seasonal weakness of rebar was more obvious. However, the fundamental pressure is not significant, and the short-term steel prices are still supported [4][39]. - The oil market strengthened further due to frequent positive news [5][31]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to remain strongly volatile in the short term due to the off-season demand not being weak, uncertainties in the mining end, and the slow generation of new warehouse receipts [6][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The threshold for the consumption tax on ultra-luxury cars has been lowered, and new energy models are included in the scope of collection. The policy will be implemented from July 20, 2025 [12]. - The youth unemployment rate excluding students dropped to 14.5% in June. A-shares continue to rotate among themes, and the index is rising. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Kevin Warsh called for a comprehensive reform of the central bank's current policy framework and proposed establishing a policy cooperation mechanism with the Treasury [15]. - Mary Daly believes that it is reasonable for policymakers to plan two interest rate cuts this year and that the Fed should not wait too long to act [16]. - US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, indicating the continued resilience of the US economy. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in July has further decreased, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile in the short term [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that interest rates should remain unchanged for some time as tariffs push up inflation [19]. - Kevin Warsh called for a complete reform of the Fed and criticized the current leadership. The better-than-expected US retail sales data and the decline in unemployment claims indicate the continued resilience of the US economy. However, there is a risk of a reversal in the optimistic expectation of a soft landing, and it is recommended to control positions carefully [20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 360.5 billion yuan. The bond market has limited upside potential and is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to sell positions when the futures rebound to the previous high and continue to allocate medium-term long positions on dips [22][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is oscillating strongly. The first round of coke price increases has basically been implemented. The rise in the coking coal futures is supported by factors such as the unexpected increase in hot metal production and the slow resumption of coal mines. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ABIOVE raised its export forecast for Brazilian soybeans in the 24/25 season. The USDA weekly export sales report was in line with expectations. The US soybean futures continued to rise, while the domestic soybean meal supply and demand remained weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the development of Sino-US relations [25][26][27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is studying how to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%. Malaysia has raised the export tariff for crude palm oil in August to 9%. The Indonesian plantation fund is expected to have sufficient income to fund the biodiesel quota plan. The oil market strengthened further. It is not recommended to short, and it is advisable to wait for signs of a weakening in the commodity market sentiment before considering long positions [28][31][32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start-up rate in North China has recovered, while that in Northeast China has declined. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The theoretical loss of starch enterprises has widened, and the CS09 - C09 spread has remained weakly volatile. The future of the CS - C spread is highly uncertain [33][34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of corn processing enterprises has decreased, and the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises has also declined. It is recommended to consider entering short positions on new crops in advance and continue to monitor the import auction and inventory situation [35][36]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In June, China's rebar production decreased year - on - year, while the production of medium - thick wide steel strips increased. The five major steel products continued to destock slightly this week. The short - term steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, but the driving force for continuous recovery is limited. It is recommended to hedge on the spot side when prices rebound [37][39][40]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Luoniu Mountain plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per 10 shares. The spot price has been oscillating weakly recently. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [41][42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern ports has been rising moderately this week. High temperatures have supported the daily consumption, and the overall coal price is expected to remain seasonally strong [43]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China National Steel & Equipment Corporation has reached an agreement with Azerbaijan to start a 187 - million - ton iron ore development project. The iron ore price is expected to remain highly volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The lead price has continued to fall, but the overall consumption is still recovering. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term buying opportunities on dips and consider internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [47][48]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The inventory of zinc ingots in seven places has increased. The zinc price has oscillated upward, mainly following the trend of black commodities. It is recommended to consider short - term light - position short - selling opportunities on rebounds and long - term positive arbitrage opportunities in the spread [50][55]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zangge Potash has been ordered to stop lithium resource development and utilization activities. The lithium carbonate contract has risen rapidly. The supply side is uncertain, and it is recommended to consider short - term long positions on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [51][52]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's refined copper production in June increased year - on - year. The short - term macro factors have a slightly positive impact on the copper price. The copper price is expected to be highly volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][55]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association has proposed to revise the HPM formula. The nickel price is expected to be range - bound in the short term and is likely to decline in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [56][58]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on July 17 was 72.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous day. The CEA price is expected to be volatile in the short term [59][60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has been slightly adjusted. The caustic soda market is expected to have limited room for further increase [61][63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has mostly remained stable. The pulp price is expected to have limited upside potential [63][64]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market has been range - bound. The PVC price is expected to have limited upside potential [65]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly start - up rate of styrene has decreased. The styrene price is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the near - end profit still has room to decline. It is recommended to wait for a further decline in BZN before considering long - term allocation [66][68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased by 46 Bcf week - on - week. The Nymex natural gas price is expected to be volatile in the short term [69][70]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories are mostly stable, with some slightly increasing. The bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin of bottle chips on dips [71][74]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area has been weakly stable. The soda ash price is expected to remain under pressure in the medium term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [75]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has remained stable. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [76][77].

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on coking coal and coke futures released by Dayue Futures on July 15, 2025, providing market analysis and price trends [1][2][6] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines have reduced their production due to safety inspections. With positive expectations in the coke market, the demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines are actively destocking. The prices of some scarce and high - cost - effective coal types are stable after the increase, and there may be a further price increase. The downstream steel and coke enterprises have low inventories and strong replenishment demand. In the short term, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable [2] - **Coke**: Currently, coke enterprises have thin profits, with some in losses and still in a production - restricted state. However, the demand from steel mills is strong, and intermediate speculative traders are actively purchasing. Coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, and their inventories are rapidly decreasing, resulting in a tight supply. In the short term, coke prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend [6] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines' production has declined due to safety inspections. The demand is good, and coal mines are destocking. There may be a price increase for some coal types [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 940, and the basis is 20, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [2] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2] - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [2] - **Expectation**: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [2] - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Coke enterprises have thin profits, some are in losses and restricting production. The demand from steel mills is good, and inventories are decreasing rapidly [6] - **Basis**: The spot price is 1420, and the basis is - 99.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6] - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6] - **Expectation**: The short - term price is expected to be stable with an upward trend [6] 2. Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal** - **Positive**: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [4] - **Negative**: The slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [4] - **Coke** - **Positive**: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8] - **Negative**: The squeeze on the profit margin of steel mills and the partial over - exhaustion of replenishment demand [8] 3. Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on July 14, 2025, including various coal types such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal, along with price changes [9] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18] - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24] 5. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, unchanged from last week [35] - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39]

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 78,510.00 CNY per ton, with a premium of 640.00 CNY over the futures main price of 77,870.00 CNY per ton [1] - The futures market shows a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 77,870.00 CNY per ton, down 0.15%, with a trading volume of 73,407 lots on May 28 [2] Price Overview - The price list for 1 electrolytic copper shows various quotes: - Shanghai Huatuo: 78,510 CNY/ton - Guangdong Nanshu: 78,500 CNY/ton - Shanghai YS: 78,495 CNY/ton [2] Market Capacity and Inventory - In 2025, 29 major domestic copper strip and sheet processing enterprises have a combined effective capacity of 2.034 million tons, accounting for 48.7% of the national effective total capacity [3] - As of May 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a copper futures warehouse receipt of 34,861 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day, with a cumulative reduction of 6,357 tons over the past week, representing a decrease of 15.42% [3] Market Analysis - The market is facing price suppression due to global economic weakness expectations driven by tariff policies, alongside a backdrop of a mild recession and high interest rates in the U.S. [4] - Support for prices is expected from tight copper raw material supply and potential new restocking demand following tariff easing [4] - Recent trends show a continuous reduction in LME and SHFE inventories, indicating that spot premiums and backwardation structures may persist for an extended period, supporting a strong price fluctuation [4]