Summary of the Conference Call for COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The shipping industry is currently facing significant disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting oil transportation routes and pricing dynamics [2][3][4][8][12]. Key Points Fleet Deployment and Market Strategy - Approximately 10 VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) have been redirected to Yanbu Port in Saudi Arabia, reducing the Middle East cargo share to a historical low of 50% [2][9]. - The company maintains a cautious approach to the spot market, keeping the VLCC time charter ratio between 10% and 15%, while all Aframax vessels are operated in-house to retain performance flexibility in a high freight rate environment [2][6]. - The company has deployed 4-5 Aframax vessels in the Atlantic region and is exploring "white oil to black oil" operations [2][5]. Freight Rate Performance - Current TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rates are approximately $130,000-$140,000 per day for VLCCs on West Africa/Gulf of Mexico routes and $170,000-$180,000 per day for Red Sea routes, while Aframax vessels in the Atlantic region are nearing $150,000 per day [2][10][11]. - The company’s TCE levels for its fleet are competitive, with Aframax rates benefiting from increased regional crude procurement in Europe and temporary exemptions from the Jones Act [5][11]. Domestic and International Trade Dynamics - Domestic shipping capacity is constrained due to national energy security requirements, limiting the ability to shift LR1/LR2 vessels to international trade [2][6]. - The company has noted a significant reduction in cargo from the Middle East, with current cargo share from this region at about 50%, which is historically low [9][12]. Cost Management and Risk Mitigation - Increased operational costs due to geopolitical risks have been incorporated into TCE calculations, with the potential for these costs to be passed on to charterers [2][9]. - The company is monitoring the market closely and adjusting its fleet deployment based on trade flow changes and safety conditions in the Middle East [4][12]. Market Volatility and Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience significant volatility, with freight rates likely to fluctuate dramatically based on geopolitical developments and inventory replenishment needs [3][8]. - If the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal operations, freight rates will depend heavily on global trade patterns and the overall volume of oil exports from producing countries [8][12]. Operational Adjustments - The company has adjusted its operational strategies in response to the changing market, ensuring that vessels are deployed efficiently to meet demand while maintaining safety and service quality [12][16]. - The company has not reported any demurrage income from vessels waiting in the Gulf due to the current geopolitical situation, as these delays are considered force majeure [10][12]. Strategic Partnerships and Industry Trends - Major oil companies are increasingly concerned about future capacity shortages and are seeking to secure long-term contracts with compliant shipowners [14]. - The shipbuilding capacity is constrained, with shipyards fully booked until 2029, limiting the ability to increase fleet size in the short term [14]. Conclusion - The company is navigating a complex and rapidly changing market landscape, focusing on maintaining operational flexibility and responding to shifts in trade flows while managing costs and risks associated with geopolitical tensions. The outlook remains cautious, with an emphasis on adapting to market conditions and ensuring the safety and efficiency of operations.

Summary of Agricultural Chemicals Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural chemicals industry has entered a cyclical recovery phase after 3-4 years of downturn, with manufacturers showing a strong reluctance to sell due to rising oil prices that bolster cost support and translate to demand [1][2] - Overall inventory across the supply chain is at historical lows, with safety stock at approximately 20%, and overseas inventory significantly lower than in 2023-2024, indicating a strong need for replenishment despite high prices [1][2] Key Price Movements - Glyphosate prices increased by 9.59% to 27,000 CNY/ton, with a target price of 30,000 CNY/ton set by companies; new capacity in 2026 is expected to be only 50,000 tons, maintaining a favorable supply-demand balance [1][9] - Mancozeb prices surged by 7.4% to 30,000 CNY/ton, driven by supply disruptions from Dow Chemical and UPL's production halt in India [1][12] - Chlorantraniliprole prices rose from 190,000 CNY to 230,000-250,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 20%-30% increase due to regulatory hurdles and shutdowns of illegal capacities [1][16] Market Dynamics - The agricultural chemicals market is significantly influenced by rising oil prices, which increase production costs and subsequently elevate agricultural product prices, enhancing planting intentions and catalyzing demand for agricultural chemicals [2] - The market sentiment is cautious, with many manufacturers choosing to halt quotations and distributors reluctant to sell existing stock, anticipating further price increases [2] Competitive Landscape - Chinese agricultural chemicals have a competitive edge over Indian products due to supply chain advantages and lower production costs, despite India having some strengths in pyrethroid products [7][8] - The South American market presents opportunities for Chinese companies as multinational firms lose market share due to high prices and local purchasing habits favoring cost-effective products [8] Inventory and Order Status - Domestic and overseas inventories are low, with overseas multinational companies also reluctant to stockpile, indicating that any price spikes due to unexpected events will not deter replenishment needs [4][5] - During the recent trade fair, actual order volumes were low, but there was a high level of intent orders, particularly from South American clients, despite reduced participation due to geopolitical tensions [5] Product Substitution and Pricing Strategies - Clear substitution relationships exist among various agricultural chemicals, necessitating careful monitoring of competitors' pricing strategies [6] - Leading companies are currently cautious in their pricing strategies, assessing market conditions before making adjustments [6] Future Outlook - The glyphosate market is expected to maintain upward price momentum if demand remains stable, with companies optimistic about future price trends [10] - The mancozeb market is also viewed positively, with significant price increases anticipated due to supply constraints and shifting consumer preferences towards traditional fungicides [12][13] - Chlorantraniliprole's price outlook remains strong due to supply chain challenges and regulatory issues affecting production [15][16] Conclusion - The agricultural chemicals industry is poised for a recovery phase, driven by low inventory levels, rising prices, and favorable supply-demand dynamics. Chinese companies are well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in both domestic and international markets, particularly in South America, while navigating competitive pressures from Indian producers.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market for steel products is in the off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. Short - term price drops are due to the pull - back of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. For steel products, short - term prices are in a narrow range, and a direction choice may be needed. For iron ore, the demand is in the off - season, and supply is expected to decline further due to seasonal factors, with resistance above in the short - term [2][4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory continued to rise, the total output of five major steel products increased slightly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory from a low level [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (- 0.96%) from the previous day and 45 yuan (- 1.43%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.82%) from the previous day and 41 yuan (- 1.24%) from last week. Other relevant prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or sell down. Wait for the bottom signal to be confirmed and then add positions at low prices [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is still in the consumption off - season. The molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement of steel apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. Steel and molten iron output will not increase significantly for the time being, but the decline space is also limited [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have declined, and shipments are expected to continue to decline due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory has been rising [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 783 yuan/dry ton, down 8.5 yuan (- 1.07%) from the previous day and 1.5 yuan (- 0.19%) from last week. Other prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or sell down [4]. 3. Industry News - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3.0946 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.2 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.521 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 126.7 million tons [6]. - On February 2, China Construction Bank supported the signing of the first - batch project of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Shanghai, marking the substantial start of this work [6]. - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.6692 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.7 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.4847 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.2887 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.6 million tons [6]. - According to Mulin Research, from February 2 to February 8, 2026, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 5, 2 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 29%; the total arrival volume was about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 15% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The black commodities sector, particularly coking coal and coke, has experienced a general price increase, with coking coal rising by 3.93% to 1165.0 yuan and coke increasing by 3.20% to 1723.0 yuan as of market close [2][9]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Increase - The macroeconomic environment shows strong bullish sentiment across various sectors, leading to an overflow of optimism towards fundamentally sound, undervalued commodities [3][10]. - For coke, data from Fenwei indicates a further contraction in coking profits this week, with reduced production and inventory at absolute low levels. Pre-holiday replenishment demand from downstream sectors and coal prices providing cost support have contributed to the resilience of coke prices [3][10]. - In terms of coking coal, Fenwei data shows an increase in premium coal production and a decrease in inventory at low levels compared to the same period last year. Despite high levels of imported coal, there are expectations of marginally weaker near-term supply as the Spring Festival approaches, alongside a rebound in thermal coal prices, which supports coking coal prices [3][10]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The Indian government's designation of coking coal as a key strategic mineral, coupled with India's high dependence on imported coking coal, may stimulate speculative demand [3][10]. - Overall, the fundamental contradictions in coking coal and coke markets are limited, with pre-holiday replenishment providing price support. Market sentiment is driving a rapid rebound in both commodities, and short-term fluctuations are expected to continue. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, progress in downstream replenishment, and coal supply conditions [3][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate showed resilience and closed higher in the late trading, indicating that the short - term supply - demand tight balance will continue. The low downstream inventory and pre - holiday restocking demand support the price. However, there is a game between the short - term "strong reality" and long - term "weak expectation", and the price may be prone to correction if supply recovers or demand is overdrawn [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 27, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 166,700 yuan/ton and closed at 179,600 yuan/ton, with a 1.50% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 382,313 lots, and the open interest was 422,433 lots (416,719 lots the previous day). The current basis was 1,360 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 29,166 lots, a change of 520 lots compared to the previous day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 168,000 - 177,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 9,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 165,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2285 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day. The total weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,217 tons, a decrease of 388 tons compared to the previous week [2] Inventory - The spot inventory was 108,896 tons, a decrease of 783 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the smelter inventory was 19,834 tons, an increase of 107 tons; the downstream inventory was 37,592 tons, an increase of 1,940 tons; other inventories were 51,470 tons, a decrease of 2,830 tons [2] Strategy - There is a game between short - term "strong reality" and long - term "weak expectation". The current price increase depends on supply disruptions and pre - demand. If supply recovers or demand is overdrawn, the price is likely to correct. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations, pay attention to consumption and inventory turning points, and consider selling hedges at high prices when appropriate. For single - side trading, conduct short - term range operations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite an apparent oversupply in the oil market, prices are unlikely to drop significantly due to factors such as marginal costs, inventory replenishment needs, and disciplined supply management [3]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - U.S. shale oil has transitioned from a growth machine to a cash flow machine, with companies prioritizing capital discipline over production growth [4]. - The Dallas Federal Reserve's energy survey indicates a negative outlook for the industry, leading to reduced aggressive expansion plans among companies [4]. - Capital expenditure expectations for 2026 show a significant decrease, with the average WTI price used for planning dropping to around $59 per barrel, down from $68 in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Drilling Activity - Active drilling rigs in the U.S. have decreased significantly, with oil-directed rigs down by about one-third since the end of 2022 [5]. - The Baker Hughes report shows a total of 544 rigs, with only 409 oil-directed rigs, indicating a contraction in supply capabilities [5]. - The decline in drilling activity suggests that the perceived oversupply may be more related to inventory and short-term structural issues rather than an ability to quickly fill global supply gaps [5]. Group 3: Price and Supply Relationship - The physical characteristics of shale oil dictate that low prices will lead to a tightening of supply, albeit with a lag [6]. - The EIA predicts that U.S. crude oil production will slightly decline in 2026 due to reduced drilling activity, despite record production levels in 2025 [6]. - A significant drop in WTI prices below $50 per barrel in late 2026 could exacerbate the reduction in production due to fewer drilling rigs [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - As oil prices decline, the marginal supply from the U.S. is expected to contract, making further price drops increasingly difficult [7]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests a year of volatility with potential price suppression from supply and inventory narratives, but the disciplined capital approach of U.S. shale oil companies may create a price floor [8]. - The article suggests that periods of pessimism in the oil market may present opportunities for investment [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season of consumption, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The arrival of winter storage still needs time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the market supervision's interview with the photovoltaic association and related enterprises has affected market sentiment. For both steel and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major steel products declined, the inventory increased, and production slightly rebounded. In the off - season, the steel mill production may continue to decline [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.13%) from the previous day and down 25 yuan (- 0.78%) from last week. - The 247 steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 million tons, up 2.07 million tons (0.91%) [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the off - season, and the molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded by about 2.1 million tons last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The arrival of pre - festival restocking demand will be later than usual this year due to the late Spring Festival. Global shipments have declined, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the price of iron ore [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [3]. - **Data Highlights**: - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 821 yuan/dry ton, up 1.5 yuan (0.18%) from the previous day and down 7 yuan (- 0.85%) from last week. - The Australian iron ore shipments are 1659.5 million tons, down 39 million tons (- 2.30%) [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In December 2025, Mongolia's coal exports were 10.9291 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.83% and a year - on - year increase of 71.31%. From January to December 2025, Mongolia's cumulative coal exports were 90.0182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.48% [6]. - HeSteel obtained the first steel export license order in Hebei Province for 2026, which will be shipped to Chittagong, Bangladesh [6]. - As of the week ending January 14, according to Zhaogang.com, the national building materials production was 4.4952 million tons, an increase of 0.042 million tons from last week; the factory inventory was 3.8945 million tons, a decrease of 0.0565 million tons from last week; the social inventory was 3.5609 million tons, an increase of 0.121 million tons from last week [6]. - In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates and 58.597 million tons of coal and lignite [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season with weak supply and demand. The winter storage is yet to come. The strong stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the "anti - involution" expectation decline has an impact on market sentiment. For both steel products and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Last week, the output of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for five major steel products declined, the inventory increased, and the output increased slightly. In the off - season, steel mill output may continue to decline [2]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data details**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to the previous week. The prices of steel billets and scrap steel increased. The blast - furnace operating rate and daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased, while the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased. The output of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased significantly. The social and steel - mill inventories of five major products and threaded rods increased, while the steel - mill inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased. The apparent demand for five major products and threaded rods decreased [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: The overall output of five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased. In the off - season, pig - iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The short - term increase in the pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills last week is expected to be temporary. The global shipment of iron ore has decreased, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price [3]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [3]. - **Data details**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to the previous week. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased. The port inventory increased, while the inventory of imported sinter powder in 64 sample steel mills decreased. The domestic iron ore output of some mines increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2552 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 969,000 tons, and the inventory is slightly lower than the average level of the fourth quarter [6]. - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese procurement volume in January 2026 was 17,000 tons, higher than that in December 2025 (14,700 tons) [7]. - In early January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.11 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons (1.4%), and the decline rate narrowed. It was 480,000 tons (7.2%) higher than the same period last year [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black market is in the off - season of consumption, with both supply and demand being weak. The winter storage still takes some time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the "anti - involution" expectation decline affects market sentiment [2] - For iron ore, the current market is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, while the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price. A medium - level upward trend is unfolding [3] Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties declined, the inventory increased, and the output increased slightly. The steel mill output may continue to decline in the off - season [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, and the spot prices also showed an upward trend [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils changed, and the spreads between different futures contracts also changed [2] - **Other Prices**: The prices of wire rods, medium - thick plates, and cold - rolled coils changed slightly, while the price of Tangshan billets decreased and the price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel increased slightly [2] - **Production**: The blast furnace operating rate and daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased, the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased, the output of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, the capacity utilization rate and operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and the output of electric - arc furnace steel mill threaded rods increased significantly [2] - **Inventory**: The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties and threaded rods increased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased, and the steel mill inventory decreased. The billet inventory in the Tangshan area increased significantly [2] - **Trading Volume**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume decreased, and the weekly wire and screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai increased significantly [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties and threaded rods decreased, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [2] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts for threaded rods decreased, and that for hot - rolled coils increased [2] II. Iron Ore - **Demand and Supply**: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased. The iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The global shipment decreased, and the increasing port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [3] - **Data**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore spot and futures contracts increased, and the prices of different iron ore varieties in ports also increased [4] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads between different iron ore futures contracts changed [4] - **Shipment and Freight**: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, and the BCI freight rates and exchange rates changed [4] - **Arrival and Port Inventory**: The arrival volume of iron ore in northern six ports decreased, the average daily port clearance volume decreased, and the total port inventory and port trade ore inventory increased, while the sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased [4] - **Domestic Production**: The iron - concentrate output of national sample mines increased [4] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts decreased [4] III. Industry News - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the reference standard for inspection methods in the iron ore delivery quality standard [6] - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at the northern six ports decreased. The global iron ore shipment decreased [6] - The online auction non - delivery rate of coking coal decreased last week, and the auction prices mostly declined [6] - Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on January 12th, expected to be lifted around January 17th [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black market is expected to experience low-level consolidation. The steel market has a supply-demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand remaining weak. The iron ore market is likely to fluctuate at a high level, supported by the approaching steel mill replenishment cycle and supply entering the off - season. The coking coal and coke market has seen production resumption after the new year, and downstream pre - holiday replenishment may support prices. The ferroalloy market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations due to weak terminal demand and a lack of driving factors [12][13][14][15] Summary by Catalog 01 Week - ly Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various black commodities have different changes. For example, the closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures contract on January 9, 2026, was 3144, up 22 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.70% increase; the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai was 3290, down 10 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.30% decrease [8] 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Black Market - Logic: The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills and blast furnaces have increased. The steel product market is affected by a supply - demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand weak. The macro - market has limited impact on prices. - Viewpoint: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Domestic monetary policy expectations are rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities. The supply is entering the off - season, and demand is expected to increase with the approaching pre - holiday replenishment cycle. - Viewpoint: High - level fluctuations in the short term. Do not chase high prices. Adopt interval operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coking Coal and Coke - Logic: The central bank's emphasis on loose monetary policy boosts market sentiment. Coal market production - cut rumors have limited impact on coking coal supply. After the new year, coal mines are resuming production, and downstream demand is expected to increase. - Viewpoint: Be cautious due to sharp short - term price fluctuations [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas and domestic macro - environments have different impacts. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has different trends, and demand is in a weak recovery state with high inventory pressure. - Viewpoint: Narrow - range fluctuations [15] 03 Variety Data Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rebar: The weekly output last week was 191.04 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons. The apparent demand was 174.96 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons. The total inventory was 438.11 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [18][29] - Hot - rolled coil: The weekly output last week was 305.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.62 million tons. The apparent demand was 308.34 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.25 million tons. The total inventory was 368.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 58.23 million tons [30][35] Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 16275.26 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1272.30 million tons. The port daily handling volume was 323.27 million tons per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.0 million tons [49] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 8989.59 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 869.34 million tons. The daily consumption was 283.28 million tons per day, with a year - on - year increase of 2.45 million tons [61] - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipments this week were 3180.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 365.3 million tons [69] Coal and Coke - Coke total inventory: Last week, it was 915.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 41.99 million tons. - Coking coal total inventory: Last week, it was 2783.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 355.02 million tons. - Independent coking enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 45 yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 29 yuan [94][102][111] Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On January 9, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35.5 yuan per dry - ton degree, with a year - on - year increase of 1.8 yuan. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan [134] - Inventory: On January 2, the total port inventory of manganese ore was 438.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 59.2 million tons [137] - Production: The weekly output of ferromanganese last week was 191030 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10255 tons. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.55 million tons [140][143] - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products last week was 115899 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 89 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18508.8 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 107 tons [145]