Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market for steel products is in the off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. Short - term price drops are due to the pull - back of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. For steel products, short - term prices are in a narrow range, and a direction choice may be needed. For iron ore, the demand is in the off - season, and supply is expected to decline further due to seasonal factors, with resistance above in the short - term [2][4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory continued to rise, the total output of five major steel products increased slightly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory from a low level [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (- 0.96%) from the previous day and 45 yuan (- 1.43%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.82%) from the previous day and 41 yuan (- 1.24%) from last week. Other relevant prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or sell down. Wait for the bottom signal to be confirmed and then add positions at low prices [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is still in the consumption off - season. The molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement of steel apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. Steel and molten iron output will not increase significantly for the time being, but the decline space is also limited [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have declined, and shipments are expected to continue to decline due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory has been rising [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 783 yuan/dry ton, down 8.5 yuan (- 1.07%) from the previous day and 1.5 yuan (- 0.19%) from last week. Other prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or sell down [4]. 3. Industry News - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3.0946 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.2 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.521 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 126.7 million tons [6]. - On February 2, China Construction Bank supported the signing of the first - batch project of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Shanghai, marking the substantial start of this work [6]. - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.6692 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.7 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.4847 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.2887 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.6 million tons [6]. - According to Mulin Research, from February 2 to February 8, 2026, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 5, 2 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 29%; the total arrival volume was about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 15% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The black commodities sector, particularly coking coal and coke, has experienced a general price increase, with coking coal rising by 3.93% to 1165.0 yuan and coke increasing by 3.20% to 1723.0 yuan as of market close [2][9]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Increase - The macroeconomic environment shows strong bullish sentiment across various sectors, leading to an overflow of optimism towards fundamentally sound, undervalued commodities [3][10]. - For coke, data from Fenwei indicates a further contraction in coking profits this week, with reduced production and inventory at absolute low levels. Pre-holiday replenishment demand from downstream sectors and coal prices providing cost support have contributed to the resilience of coke prices [3][10]. - In terms of coking coal, Fenwei data shows an increase in premium coal production and a decrease in inventory at low levels compared to the same period last year. Despite high levels of imported coal, there are expectations of marginally weaker near-term supply as the Spring Festival approaches, alongside a rebound in thermal coal prices, which supports coking coal prices [3][10]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The Indian government's designation of coking coal as a key strategic mineral, coupled with India's high dependence on imported coking coal, may stimulate speculative demand [3][10]. - Overall, the fundamental contradictions in coking coal and coke markets are limited, with pre-holiday replenishment providing price support. Market sentiment is driving a rapid rebound in both commodities, and short-term fluctuations are expected to continue. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, progress in downstream replenishment, and coal supply conditions [3][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate showed resilience and closed higher in the late trading, indicating that the short - term supply - demand tight balance will continue. The low downstream inventory and pre - holiday restocking demand support the price. However, there is a game between the short - term "strong reality" and long - term "weak expectation", and the price may be prone to correction if supply recovers or demand is overdrawn [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 27, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 166,700 yuan/ton and closed at 179,600 yuan/ton, with a 1.50% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 382,313 lots, and the open interest was 422,433 lots (416,719 lots the previous day). The current basis was 1,360 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 29,166 lots, a change of 520 lots compared to the previous day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 168,000 - 177,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 9,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 165,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2285 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day. The total weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,217 tons, a decrease of 388 tons compared to the previous week [2] Inventory - The spot inventory was 108,896 tons, a decrease of 783 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the smelter inventory was 19,834 tons, an increase of 107 tons; the downstream inventory was 37,592 tons, an increase of 1,940 tons; other inventories were 51,470 tons, a decrease of 2,830 tons [2] Strategy - There is a game between short - term "strong reality" and long - term "weak expectation". The current price increase depends on supply disruptions and pre - demand. If supply recovers or demand is overdrawn, the price is likely to correct. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations, pay attention to consumption and inventory turning points, and consider selling hedges at high prices when appropriate. For single - side trading, conduct short - term range operations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite an apparent oversupply in the oil market, prices are unlikely to drop significantly due to factors such as marginal costs, inventory replenishment needs, and disciplined supply management [3]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - U.S. shale oil has transitioned from a growth machine to a cash flow machine, with companies prioritizing capital discipline over production growth [4]. - The Dallas Federal Reserve's energy survey indicates a negative outlook for the industry, leading to reduced aggressive expansion plans among companies [4]. - Capital expenditure expectations for 2026 show a significant decrease, with the average WTI price used for planning dropping to around $59 per barrel, down from $68 in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Drilling Activity - Active drilling rigs in the U.S. have decreased significantly, with oil-directed rigs down by about one-third since the end of 2022 [5]. - The Baker Hughes report shows a total of 544 rigs, with only 409 oil-directed rigs, indicating a contraction in supply capabilities [5]. - The decline in drilling activity suggests that the perceived oversupply may be more related to inventory and short-term structural issues rather than an ability to quickly fill global supply gaps [5]. Group 3: Price and Supply Relationship - The physical characteristics of shale oil dictate that low prices will lead to a tightening of supply, albeit with a lag [6]. - The EIA predicts that U.S. crude oil production will slightly decline in 2026 due to reduced drilling activity, despite record production levels in 2025 [6]. - A significant drop in WTI prices below $50 per barrel in late 2026 could exacerbate the reduction in production due to fewer drilling rigs [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - As oil prices decline, the marginal supply from the U.S. is expected to contract, making further price drops increasingly difficult [7]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests a year of volatility with potential price suppression from supply and inventory narratives, but the disciplined capital approach of U.S. shale oil companies may create a price floor [8]. - The article suggests that periods of pessimism in the oil market may present opportunities for investment [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season of consumption, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The arrival of winter storage still needs time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the market supervision's interview with the photovoltaic association and related enterprises has affected market sentiment. For both steel and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major steel products declined, the inventory increased, and production slightly rebounded. In the off - season, the steel mill production may continue to decline [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.13%) from the previous day and down 25 yuan (- 0.78%) from last week. - The 247 steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 million tons, up 2.07 million tons (0.91%) [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the off - season, and the molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded by about 2.1 million tons last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The arrival of pre - festival restocking demand will be later than usual this year due to the late Spring Festival. Global shipments have declined, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the price of iron ore [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [3]. - **Data Highlights**: - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 821 yuan/dry ton, up 1.5 yuan (0.18%) from the previous day and down 7 yuan (- 0.85%) from last week. - The Australian iron ore shipments are 1659.5 million tons, down 39 million tons (- 2.30%) [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In December 2025, Mongolia's coal exports were 10.9291 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.83% and a year - on - year increase of 71.31%. From January to December 2025, Mongolia's cumulative coal exports were 90.0182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.48% [6]. - HeSteel obtained the first steel export license order in Hebei Province for 2026, which will be shipped to Chittagong, Bangladesh [6]. - As of the week ending January 14, according to Zhaogang.com, the national building materials production was 4.4952 million tons, an increase of 0.042 million tons from last week; the factory inventory was 3.8945 million tons, a decrease of 0.0565 million tons from last week; the social inventory was 3.5609 million tons, an increase of 0.121 million tons from last week [6]. - In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates and 58.597 million tons of coal and lignite [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season with weak supply and demand. The winter storage is yet to come. The strong stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the "anti - involution" expectation decline has an impact on market sentiment. For both steel products and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Last week, the output of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for five major steel products declined, the inventory increased, and the output increased slightly. In the off - season, steel mill output may continue to decline [2]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data details**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to the previous week. The prices of steel billets and scrap steel increased. The blast - furnace operating rate and daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased, while the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased. The output of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased significantly. The social and steel - mill inventories of five major products and threaded rods increased, while the steel - mill inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased. The apparent demand for five major products and threaded rods decreased [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: The overall output of five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased. In the off - season, pig - iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The short - term increase in the pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills last week is expected to be temporary. The global shipment of iron ore has decreased, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price [3]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [3]. - **Data details**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to the previous week. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased. The port inventory increased, while the inventory of imported sinter powder in 64 sample steel mills decreased. The domestic iron ore output of some mines increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2552 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 969,000 tons, and the inventory is slightly lower than the average level of the fourth quarter [6]. - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese procurement volume in January 2026 was 17,000 tons, higher than that in December 2025 (14,700 tons) [7]. - In early January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.11 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons (1.4%), and the decline rate narrowed. It was 480,000 tons (7.2%) higher than the same period last year [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black market is in the off - season of consumption, with both supply and demand being weak. The winter storage still takes some time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the "anti - involution" expectation decline affects market sentiment [2] - For iron ore, the current market is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, while the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price. A medium - level upward trend is unfolding [3] Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties declined, the inventory increased, and the output increased slightly. The steel mill output may continue to decline in the off - season [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, and the spot prices also showed an upward trend [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils changed, and the spreads between different futures contracts also changed [2] - **Other Prices**: The prices of wire rods, medium - thick plates, and cold - rolled coils changed slightly, while the price of Tangshan billets decreased and the price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel increased slightly [2] - **Production**: The blast furnace operating rate and daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased, the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased, the output of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, the capacity utilization rate and operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and the output of electric - arc furnace steel mill threaded rods increased significantly [2] - **Inventory**: The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties and threaded rods increased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased, and the steel mill inventory decreased. The billet inventory in the Tangshan area increased significantly [2] - **Trading Volume**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume decreased, and the weekly wire and screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai increased significantly [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties and threaded rods decreased, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [2] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts for threaded rods decreased, and that for hot - rolled coils increased [2] II. Iron Ore - **Demand and Supply**: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased. The iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The global shipment decreased, and the increasing port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [3] - **Data**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore spot and futures contracts increased, and the prices of different iron ore varieties in ports also increased [4] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads between different iron ore futures contracts changed [4] - **Shipment and Freight**: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, and the BCI freight rates and exchange rates changed [4] - **Arrival and Port Inventory**: The arrival volume of iron ore in northern six ports decreased, the average daily port clearance volume decreased, and the total port inventory and port trade ore inventory increased, while the sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased [4] - **Domestic Production**: The iron - concentrate output of national sample mines increased [4] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts decreased [4] III. Industry News - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the reference standard for inspection methods in the iron ore delivery quality standard [6] - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at the northern six ports decreased. The global iron ore shipment decreased [6] - The online auction non - delivery rate of coking coal decreased last week, and the auction prices mostly declined [6] - Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on January 12th, expected to be lifted around January 17th [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black market is expected to experience low-level consolidation. The steel market has a supply-demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand remaining weak. The iron ore market is likely to fluctuate at a high level, supported by the approaching steel mill replenishment cycle and supply entering the off - season. The coking coal and coke market has seen production resumption after the new year, and downstream pre - holiday replenishment may support prices. The ferroalloy market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations due to weak terminal demand and a lack of driving factors [12][13][14][15] Summary by Catalog 01 Week - ly Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various black commodities have different changes. For example, the closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures contract on January 9, 2026, was 3144, up 22 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.70% increase; the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai was 3290, down 10 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.30% decrease [8] 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Black Market - Logic: The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills and blast furnaces have increased. The steel product market is affected by a supply - demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand weak. The macro - market has limited impact on prices. - Viewpoint: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Domestic monetary policy expectations are rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities. The supply is entering the off - season, and demand is expected to increase with the approaching pre - holiday replenishment cycle. - Viewpoint: High - level fluctuations in the short term. Do not chase high prices. Adopt interval operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coking Coal and Coke - Logic: The central bank's emphasis on loose monetary policy boosts market sentiment. Coal market production - cut rumors have limited impact on coking coal supply. After the new year, coal mines are resuming production, and downstream demand is expected to increase. - Viewpoint: Be cautious due to sharp short - term price fluctuations [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas and domestic macro - environments have different impacts. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has different trends, and demand is in a weak recovery state with high inventory pressure. - Viewpoint: Narrow - range fluctuations [15] 03 Variety Data Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rebar: The weekly output last week was 191.04 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons. The apparent demand was 174.96 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons. The total inventory was 438.11 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [18][29] - Hot - rolled coil: The weekly output last week was 305.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.62 million tons. The apparent demand was 308.34 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.25 million tons. The total inventory was 368.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 58.23 million tons [30][35] Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 16275.26 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1272.30 million tons. The port daily handling volume was 323.27 million tons per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.0 million tons [49] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 8989.59 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 869.34 million tons. The daily consumption was 283.28 million tons per day, with a year - on - year increase of 2.45 million tons [61] - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipments this week were 3180.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 365.3 million tons [69] Coal and Coke - Coke total inventory: Last week, it was 915.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 41.99 million tons. - Coking coal total inventory: Last week, it was 2783.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 355.02 million tons. - Independent coking enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 45 yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 29 yuan [94][102][111] Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On January 9, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35.5 yuan per dry - ton degree, with a year - on - year increase of 1.8 yuan. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan [134] - Inventory: On January 2, the total port inventory of manganese ore was 438.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 59.2 million tons [137] - Production: The weekly output of ferromanganese last week was 191030 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10255 tons. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.55 million tons [140][143] - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products last week was 115899 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 89 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18508.8 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 107 tons [145]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the steel market, the supply - demand situation is weak during the consumption off - season. Steel mill production may continue to decline due to falling margins and the off - season. Although macro - level confidence is enhanced, market supervision actions have an impact on market sentiment. For the iron ore market, demand may decline seasonally, supply remains high, and the rising price of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Last week, threaded steel production increased, overall inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand decreased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased overall, inventory increased, and production increased slightly. Steel mill production may continue to decline due to falling margins and the consumption off - season. Winter storage is still some time away [2]. - **Market Sentiment**: Macro - level confidence has been enhanced, with the stock market rising strongly and positive policy expectations boosting confidence. However, the market supervision action has affected market sentiment [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.60% from the previous day and up 46 yuan or 1.47% from the previous week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 78.32%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 227.43 million tons, up 0.85 million tons or 0.38% from the previous week [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Last week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand decreased. The market is still in the off - season, and molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The restocking demand before the Spring Festival will come later this year. On the supply side, global shipments remain high, and the rising port inventory suppresses futures prices. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract is strongly supported by the 10 - day moving average, and a mid - term upward trend is emerging [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [3]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 813 yuan/dry ton, down 15.0 yuan or 1.81% from the previous day and up 23.5 yuan or 2.98% from the previous week. The overseas iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 1698.5 million tons, down 207.0 million tons or 10.86% from the previous week [4]. 3.3. Industry News - As of the week of January 8, threaded steel production increased for the fourth consecutive week, factory and social inventories turned from decreasing to increasing, and apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week. The social inventory of threaded steel was 290.18 million tons, an increase of 7.52 million tons or 2.66% from the previous week. The apparent demand for threaded steel was 174.96 million tons, a decrease of 25.48 million tons or 12.71% from the previous week [7]. - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37% from the previous week and an increase of 27.04% from the same period last year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].