V i e w p o i n t | 01 Jul 2025 23:10:31 ET │ 12 pages India Economics Likely Contours of an India-US Trade Deal CITI'S TAKE Although clarity is still limited, we outline factors to watch in a potential India-US trade deal. The pre-July 09 trade deal could act as a broad framework until a comprehensive deal before the QUAD summit (October/November). [1] For manufactured goods, it's unclear whether it would be "zero-for-zero" tariffs or the 10% baseline US tariff stays. [2] Gradual multi-year or immediate re ...

Global Economic Briefing M Global Idea Global Tariffs: Timelines to Consider June 30, 2025 04:00 AM GMT With a series of tariff deadlines approaching, this note reviews historical experiences of trade negotiations to help set expectations and identify what we will be focusing on in the outcomes. We also consider how the negotiations affect the transmission of tariffs to economic data. Key Takeaways The timing of tariff impact on the economy will be affected by the actual application of tariffs as well as th ...

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月20日 南华贵金属日报: 金震银调 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场金震银调，最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3387.4美元/盎司，-0.61%；美白银2507合约 收报于36.36美元/盎司，-1.5%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报781.24元/克，-0.49%；SHFE白银2508合约 收8819元/千克，-1.91%。目前市场聚焦于中东局势进展，美国接下来是否可能直接军事介入以伊冲突。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为89.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 10.3%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为31.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为61.7%，累计降息50个基点的 概率为6.7%；美联储10月维持利率不变的概率15.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.3%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为34.9%，累计降息75个基点的概率为3.4%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓维持在947.37吨； iShares白银ETF持仓维持在14763吨。 ...

Group 1 - General Motors (GM) has decided to stop exporting vehicles from the United States to China amid ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries [1] - The Durant Guild, GM's premium import brand, accounted for less than 0.1% of total sales in China, prompting a restructuring of operations due to significant economic shifts [2] - In Q1 2025, GM and its joint ventures delivered over 442,000 vehicles in China, achieving year-over-year sales growth and increasing market share for the third consecutive quarter [3] Group 2 - Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China surged by 53.2% year-over-year, with GM planning to expand its NEV portfolio further in 2025 [3] - Ford Motor Company has also paused shipments of several U.S.-built vehicles to China due to retaliatory tariffs, which have increased import taxes significantly [4] - Tesla halted new orders for its Model S and Model X in China following increased tariffs on U.S. imports, facing rising competition from domestic manufacturers like BYD [5]

市场洞察 | 市场 | 亚洲 Market Insights | Markets | Asia 2/ 看好的新兴市场亚洲多头为韩元、台币、⻢来西亚林吉特和新加坡元（Danny） 3/ 美元兑⼈⺠币中间价⾸次⾃四⽉初以来跌破 7.20 + 美元兑离岸⼈⺠币下⾏交易策略 Five things you need to know: 4/ Shifting landscape between EM vs G10 FX dynamics: USD underperformance increasingly EM-led 你需要知道的五件事： 1/ GS lowers US recession odds, raises US growth views, revises up S&P forecasts, and lifts China GDP growth 1/ ⾼盛下调美国衰退概率，上调美国增⻓预期，修正上调标普预测，并提升中国 GDP 增⻓预期 2/ Favored EM Asia longs are KRW, TWD, MYR and SGD (Danny) 3/ USDCNY fixing came in bel ...

FICC Research Economics 9 May 2025 Global Economics Weekly Habemus primum pactum! The US-UK trade deal should be the first in a series, with India, Japan, Korea, Vietnam likely next, and eventually also China and the EU. However, tariffs will likely remain high and the final agreements still uncertain. Central banks respond with caution. Next week, it's US CPI and retail sales. Global Synthesis Habemus primum pactum! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 The US-UK t ...

外汇市场一周回顾（2025年5月5日-5月9日） 欧元和英镑：欧元震荡下行，英镑承压 欧元本周走势震荡，周初连续上涨二个交易日后，周三周四连续下跌，周五以小幅反弹报收于1.12511。整体处于振荡调整阶段。整体而言，欧元兑美元在 1.12附近波动，面临1.2150的长期压力线限制，上行动能不足，短期或维持在较小的上升通道内运行。 英镑兑美元则因英国央行利率决议临近及经济数据不确定性，波动加剧，整体表现偏弱，收于1.3300左右。 本周全球外汇市场波动显著，围绕贸易谈判，美联储利率决议、全球央行政策动态以及地缘政治风险，主要货币对表现分化，美元指数经历震荡反复，避险 货币和商品货币走势各异。 美元走势：震荡中显现分歧 美元指数本周整体呈现震荡走势，开盘于约99.8附近，最高触及100.64，涨幅约1.03%。美元先是因市场对美联储可能维持利率不变的预期而承压，指数一 度跌破100关口，但在美联储主席鲍威尔对通胀和贸易政策的表态后，美元迅速反弹，周五收于100.42，显示出强劲的短线反弹力量。 不过，美元指数本周仍呈现"多空分歧"，投资者对美国经济数据复杂性及全球经济不确定性保持谨慎态度，市场对美联储未来货币政策 ...

B&G Foods (BGS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company Participants AJ Schwabe - Senior Associate, Corporate Strategy and Business DevelopmentKenneth C. Keller - President, Chief Executive Officer and DirectorBruce Wacha - CFO & Executive VP of FinanceRobert Moskow - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Michael Lavery - Senior Equity Research AnalystScott Marks - Equity Research AnalystWilliam Reuter - AnalystNone - Analyst Operator Good day, and welcome to the B G Foods First Qua ...

Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 30, 2025 02:00 PM ET Company Participants Tony Pordon - Executive Vice President Investor Relations and Corporate Business DevelopmentRoger Penske - Chairman & CEORichard Shearing - Chief Operating Officer of North American OperationsRandall Seymore - Chief Operating Officer of International OperationsShelley Hulgrave - Executive Vice President & CFOJohn Murphy - Managing DirectorDaniela Haigian - Vice President - Equity ResearchRon Jewsikow - Direct ...