Yet annual trade deficit is growing, not shrinking ...

Economic Outlook - Navellier predicts U.S. GDP growth will exceed 5% in 2026, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts and increased investments in domestic production [2][24] - The Federal Reserve has reduced the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter percentage point at each of the past three meetings to support the jobs market [1][12] AI Investment Impact - AI spending is projected to significantly contribute to economic growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating hyperscalers will spend $533 billion in 2026, a 34% increase from 2025 [15] - Bank of America forecasts spending on AI data centers to rise from $243 billion in 2025 to $415 billion in 2026, indicating a robust investment trend [16] Trade and Manufacturing - The U.S. trade deficit improved to -$52.8 billion in September, its lowest level since early 2020, which is expected to provide a GDP tailwind as more production is brought back to the U.S. [11][9] - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) includes incentives for capital spending, encouraging domestic manufacturing and investment [7][8] Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation concerns appear exaggerated, with November CPI inflation at 2.7%, down from 3% in September, suggesting a more favorable environment for economic growth [19][20] - Bank of America projects core PCE inflation for 2026 to be around 3.1% in Q1, which may lead to further interest rate cuts if unemployment remains high [21][22][23] Overall Economic Growth Drivers - Economic growth is expected to be supported by onshoring and data center growth, with lower interest rates likely stimulating interest rate-sensitive sectors such as automotive and housing [24]

分组1: Eli Lilly and Obesity Drug - Eli Lilly's new obesity drug, Retatrich, demonstrated significant efficacy, with patients losing nearly 30% of their body weight, surpassing current market treatments [1] - The drug also showed meaningful relief from knee pain and osteoarthritis, indicating its broad potential impact on patient health [2] - Following the announcement, Eli Lilly's shares increased by approximately 1.5% [2] 分组2: Housing Market Trends - Home prices have turned negative year-over-year for the first time in over two years, indicating a cooling housing market due to affordability challenges [2][3] - Rising inventory and high mortgage rates are giving buyers more leverage, leading to price drops in previously overheated markets, particularly in the Sun Belt [3] - Economists suggest that the future of the housing market will depend on whether lower borrowing costs in 2026 can revive momentum or if this marks a longer reset in home values [4] 分组3: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose by 44,000 to 236,000, the largest increase in four years, indicating potential cooling in the labor market [5][6] - The US trade deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion in September, down from $59.3 billion in August, marking the lowest monthly level in five years [7] - The trade deficit is 17% larger than the first nine months of the previous year, influenced by tariffs and front-loading of goods [8] 分组4: Corporate Earnings and Market Reactions - Broadcom's earnings report is anticipated to have a significant impact on the broader market, given its large market capitalization [9] - Costco's shares have slightly declined post-earnings, while Lululemon's shares increased by 9% following a strong earnings report, with international sales up 18% [10][11] - Lululemon's management has acknowledged previous concerns about being stale and predictable, indicating a potential focus on revitalization [12]

Trade & GDP - The trade deficit decreased to $596 billion in September, compared to an estimate of $608 billion and $783 billion in July [1] - This trade data is crucial for analysts in finalizing the third quarter GDP report [2] - The third quarter GDP report will be released next week [2] International Trade - Imports from Canada in September reached their lowest level since May 2021 [3] Employment & Labor Market - The September jobs report and jobless claims data from last week will be released tomorrow [3] - The Department of Labor will release the missing data between the start of the shutdown and tomorrow's numbers online tomorrow afternoon [4] Economic Indicators & Data Release Schedule - Real earnings data will be released on Friday [5] - The September pie data will be released next Tuesday [5] - The second version of the third quarter GDP number, along with income and spending for October, will be released next Wednesday [5] - November income and spending data will be released on December 19th [6] - The status of October's jobs, CPI, and pie data remains unknown [6] - The release dates for November's jobs, CPI, and PBI data are still pending [6] - The status of October and November retail sales is still pending [6]

Core Insights - The steep tariffs imposed by President Trump in August have resulted in a significant contraction in imports and a reduction in the trade deficit [1] Summary by Categories Trade Impact - The tariffs have led to a notable decrease in import levels, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [1] - The trade deficit has contracted as a direct consequence of these tariffs, reflecting changes in the balance of trade [1]

Trade Policy and Economic Security - The discussion emphasizes the importance of tariffs as a matter of national security and a signature policy of the President, suggesting that the Supreme Court is unlikely to overrule it [2][4][32] - The trade deficit with China has reportedly decreased by 25%, indicating progress in rebalancing trade [3] - The use of emergency powers to address trade issues, particularly concerning rare earth minerals, is highlighted as crucial for maintaining manufacturing capabilities in the US and globally [4][32] Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown, now in its 35th day, is tied for the longest in history, with centrist Democrats signaling a potential willingness to negotiate [13][20] - The shutdown is affecting the economy, with concerns about airport delays and public sentiment potentially blaming Democrats if travel disruptions occur during peak times [20][16] New York's Economic Status - New York is losing its status as the financial capital of the US, with significant capital and jobs moving to states like Texas and Florida [23][24] - The potential election of a socialist mayor in New York could lead to reduced federal funding, as the administration may exercise discretion in allocating resources based on state governance [29][30][31] Healthcare Reform Discussions - The Secretary calls for bipartisan cooperation to reopen the government before discussing healthcare reform, indicating that negotiations cannot proceed while the government is shut down [19][17] - The rising costs associated with the Affordable Care Act are noted, with a need for a plan to address these issues once the government is operational again [18][19]

Core Insights - The report indicates that total US trade with its top partners increased to USD 257 billion during April-July 2025, up from USD 248 billion in January-March 2025 [1][10] - Despite the overall rise in trade, the US trade deficit with its top five trading partners, including India, increased by USD 9 billion during the same period [2][10] - The US trade deficit, which was over USD 150 billion in January-March 2025, has now declined to less than USD 100 billion per month [2][10] Trade Deficit Analysis - The analysis shows that the US reduced its trade deficit with China from USD 71 billion to USD 58 billion and with Switzerland from USD 54 billion to USD 1 billion [6][10] - Conversely, the trade deficit with Vietnam rose from USD 36 billion to USD 61 billion, with Mexico from USD 47 billion to USD 65 billion, with Taiwan from USD 22 billion to USD 48 billion, and with India from USD 17 billion to USD 23 billion [7][10] Trade Partner Rankings - In July 2025, Mexico became the top trading partner of the US, accounting for approximately 16% of total trade, followed by Canada at about 12.5% and China at 7.6% [8][10] - India ranked 10th among the US's trading partners, with a share of 2.7% [8][10] Conclusion on Tariffs - The report concludes that while US tariffs have helped lower overall deficit levels, the trade pattern indicates a shift in deficits from traditional partners like China and Switzerland to emerging partners such as Vietnam, Mexico, Taiwan, and India [9][10]

Trade Dynamics - Europe's imports from China are increasing [1] - The European bloc is on track for a record deficit this year [1]

Group 1 - The frequency of meetings between the US and China has increased, with four meetings in four months, indicating a potential buildup towards a significant summit [1] - There is speculation about a possible meeting between Trump and Xi at the upcoming APEC in Seoul, with both leaders aiming to present substantial outcomes from their discussions [2] - Trump is focused on achieving a reduction in the trade deficit with China, and there is a noted increase in Chinese investments into the US [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government is encouraged to commit to investments in the US comparable to those made in Japan and Europe, although long-term agendas appear to be diverging [4] - Short-term achievements in trade discussions may stabilize market volatility but will not fundamentally alter the bilateral relationship [5] - There is little appetite from European countries to impose tariffs on China, preferring sanctions instead, which complicates Trump's position [6] Group 3 - The potential for a gradual change in European tactics regarding tariffs is noted, but Trump's demands for significant tariffs are viewed as more political than practical [7]

Gold Market Dynamics - Central bank buying, especially from China, continues to be a tailwind for gold, as they diversify away from the dollar [1] - US and Western investor concerns about the ballooning twin deficits (budget and trade) are adding to the gold rally [2] - Rate cuts may spark an upside move in silver, viewed as gold's little cousin, which tends to outperform gold in long bull markets [7] Agnico Eagle Mines Analysis - Agnico Eagle Mines is a top pick due to its ability to deliver on guidance and execute well on projects, ideally outperforming the gold price by a ratio of 2 to 1 [3] - Agnico Eagle Mines has good growth for its size, with a market cap of $70 billion, low cost, enormous exploration upside, and a suite of perspective projects [4] Platinum Market Insights - Limited supply from South Africa and potentially limited access to Russian supplies are driving interest in platinum [5] - Demand in China is potentially accelerating for platinum, possibly for jewelry buying and investments into hydrogen infrastructure [5]