It feels very weird to be back in the chair talking about data that has crossed, but we do have the first data since the shutdown ended and it is international trade for September. The trade deficit falls to $59.6% billion. The estimate was for 60.8% and we were at 78.3% in July.Now, this is old data in the yes, but category, it does matter because it's basically the final piece of data that analysts need to put together. The third quarter GDP report, which is going to be released in next week. So good news ...

The steep tariffs President Trump issued in August led to a significant contraction in imports and the trade deficit, newly released data shows. ...

Trade Policy and Economic Security - The discussion emphasizes the importance of tariffs as a matter of national security and a signature policy of the President, suggesting that the Supreme Court is unlikely to overrule it [2][4][32] - The trade deficit with China has reportedly decreased by 25%, indicating progress in rebalancing trade [3] - The use of emergency powers to address trade issues, particularly concerning rare earth minerals, is highlighted as crucial for maintaining manufacturing capabilities in the US and globally [4][32] Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown, now in its 35th day, is tied for the longest in history, with centrist Democrats signaling a potential willingness to negotiate [13][20] - The shutdown is affecting the economy, with concerns about airport delays and public sentiment potentially blaming Democrats if travel disruptions occur during peak times [20][16] New York's Economic Status - New York is losing its status as the financial capital of the US, with significant capital and jobs moving to states like Texas and Florida [23][24] - The potential election of a socialist mayor in New York could lead to reduced federal funding, as the administration may exercise discretion in allocating resources based on state governance [29][30][31] Healthcare Reform Discussions - The Secretary calls for bipartisan cooperation to reopen the government before discussing healthcare reform, indicating that negotiations cannot proceed while the government is shut down [19][17] - The rising costs associated with the Affordable Care Act are noted, with a need for a plan to address these issues once the government is operational again [18][19]

The report stated that the total US trade with these top partners rose to USD 257 billion during April-July 2025 from USD 248 billion recorded in January-March 2025.However, despite the overall rise in trade, the It stated "During the post-tariff period, US trade deficit declined by USD 42 billion...but if we look the trade deficit of US with the top 5 trading partners (+ India), it has increased by USD 9 billion to USD 257 bn"The analysis in the report revealed that the US trade deficit (not seasonally ad ...

Europe’s imports from China are on the rise, leaving the bloc on course for a record deficit this year https://t.co/m5IMHk6DPA ...

Group 1 - The frequency of meetings between the US and China has increased, with four meetings in four months, indicating a potential buildup towards a significant summit [1] - There is speculation about a possible meeting between Trump and Xi at the upcoming APEC in Seoul, with both leaders aiming to present substantial outcomes from their discussions [2] - Trump is focused on achieving a reduction in the trade deficit with China, and there is a noted increase in Chinese investments into the US [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government is encouraged to commit to investments in the US comparable to those made in Japan and Europe, although long-term agendas appear to be diverging [4] - Short-term achievements in trade discussions may stabilize market volatility but will not fundamentally alter the bilateral relationship [5] - There is little appetite from European countries to impose tariffs on China, preferring sanctions instead, which complicates Trump's position [6] Group 3 - The potential for a gradual change in European tactics regarding tariffs is noted, but Trump's demands for significant tariffs are viewed as more political than practical [7]

Gold Market Dynamics - Central bank buying, especially from China, continues to be a tailwind for gold, as they diversify away from the dollar [1] - US and Western investor concerns about the ballooning twin deficits (budget and trade) are adding to the gold rally [2] - Rate cuts may spark an upside move in silver, viewed as gold's little cousin, which tends to outperform gold in long bull markets [7] Agnico Eagle Mines Analysis - Agnico Eagle Mines is a top pick due to its ability to deliver on guidance and execute well on projects, ideally outperforming the gold price by a ratio of 2 to 1 [3] - Agnico Eagle Mines has good growth for its size, with a market cap of $70 billion, low cost, enormous exploration upside, and a suite of perspective projects [4] Platinum Market Insights - Limited supply from South Africa and potentially limited access to Russian supplies are driving interest in platinum [5] - Demand in China is potentially accelerating for platinum, possibly for jewelry buying and investments into hydrogen infrastructure [5]

Economic Indicators - Non-farm productivity jumps to 33%, exceeding expectations of under 3%, marking the best performance since the last quarter of 2023 [1] - Unit labor costs moderate to 1%, the smallest since a negative 15% in the third quarter of 2024 [2] - Initial jobless claims rise to 237000, up 8000 from a non-revised 229000, equaling the second to last week in June, with the higher one in mid-June at 246000 [2] - Continuing claims are slightly lower at 1940000, maintaining a string above 19 million, comparable to November 2021 [3] - The trade deficit comes in at approximately minus 78 billion, compared to a revised minus 59 billion previously [4] Market Reaction - Following the data release, the 10-year Treasury yield decreases by three basis points, moving from around 418% to 419% [4] Labor Market Analysis - Initial jobless claims remain well-behaved, but exceeding 250000 would warrant greater scrutiny [4][5] - Government work week data has not deteriorated, remaining at or above 341% since the beginning of the year [5][6]

Federal Reserve Nomination - President intends to nominate Steven Mir, chair of his council of economic advisers, to the open seat created by Audriana Cougler's departure [1] - Nomination might be considered for the October meeting, with a very difficult outside chance for the September meeting [2] Economic Policy Implications - Steven Mir is seen as an intellectual architect of the president's policies, including devaluing the US dollar to help US manufacturing [2] - Mir is a critic of the trade deficit and believed to be a key author of the Mara Lago accords, potentially involving a 100-year bond to foreign holders of US debt in a non-interest bearing account [2] - Rethinking trade is a significant aspect of the president's agenda, and a looser monetary policy could devalue the US dollar [3]

Trade Policy & Tariffs - The US administration is considering tariffs on goods with embedded chips, potentially impacting $300 billion of imports [6] - Transshipped goods, starting August 7, face a 40% tariff, but the implementation and tracking methods lack clarity [8] - Defining the target of transshipment policies is crucial, whether it's customs enforcement or addressing Chinese factories in other countries [9][10][11] - Trade deficit narrowed by 16% in June, reaching the tightest level since September 2023, slightly above $60 billion, but further data is needed to confirm the trend [11] Industry & Manufacturing - Reshoring chips or pharmaceuticals to the US is very challenging and may not offer a cost advantage [5] - Building chip foundries and relocating manufacturing facilities in the US is time-consuming and expensive, requiring FDA approval for pharmaceuticals [2][4] - The EU supplies a significant portion of drugs to the US, and the impact of tariffs on this trade is a concern [1] Geopolitical & Trade Deals - The administration is cautious about disrupting trade negotiations with China, especially regarding rare earth actions [19] - Potential secondary sanctions on Russia could impact trade deals with China and India [18][20] - Trade deficits with specific countries depend on the composition of their exports to the US, such as energy from Canada [16][17]