Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment towards gold, oil, and commodities, with gold showing a year-to-date return of 24.2% [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the trend of US dollar debasement as a primary investment theme, suggesting that this will lead to increased liquidity and a focus on assets like gold and commodities [20]. - It highlights the correlation between the US dollar's performance and political factors, particularly the approval ratings of President Trump, which have historically influenced market sentiment [2][22]. - The report notes a significant inflow into gold and materials, indicating a shift in investor preference towards these assets amid economic uncertainty [18][57]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date performance shows gold at 24.2%, oil at 13.9%, and commodities at 12.1%, while US stocks lag at 1.8% [1]. - The US dollar has depreciated by 12% since Trump's inauguration, which is seen as beneficial for manufacturing in key swing states [2]. Investment Strategies - The report suggests a "permanent portfolio" strategy with a 10-year return of 8.7%, the best since 1992, indicating a strong performance across diversified asset classes [3][4]. - It recommends long positions in bonds, international equities, and gold as a hedge against US dollar debasement and inflation [19][24]. Asset Flows - Recent flows indicate $10 billion to cash, $17 billion to bonds, and $6.7 billion to gold, while equities saw a $15.4 billion outflow [11][57]. - Notably, there was a record inflow of $11.8 billion into materials, reflecting a growing interest in this sector [18][50]. Economic Context - The report discusses the implications of a potential economic boom leading up to the midterm elections, with a focus on how this could affect asset prices and investor behavior [20]. - It also highlights the historical performance of gold and emerging market stocks during previous US dollar bear markets, suggesting they are likely to outperform again [44].

A gauge of the dollar slid to its weakest level in nearly four years as a resurgent yen adds to headwinds for the US currency. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.4% to the lowest since March 2022. The world’s primary reserve currency fell for a fourth straight day, and is coming off its worst week since May. Most Read from Bloomberg The weakness reflects investor caution following a bout of unpredictable Washington policymaking, including President Donald Trump’s threats to take over Gre ...

Group 1: Gold Performance and Market Sentiment - Gold is on track for its second-best performance in the last 50 years, with an increase of over 43% as investors hedge against geopolitical and monetary risks [1] - Institutional allocations to gold remain low, with only 2.4% of fund managers' portfolios allocated to gold, despite its strong performance [3][4] - A significant 39% of fund managers reported having zero exposure to gold, while only 6% have allocations of 8% or more [4] Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - Fund managers are heavily concentrated in equities, particularly technology stocks, with a net 28% overweight position in equities, the highest level since February [4] - Cryptocurrencies are also largely absent from institutional portfolios, with two-thirds of respondents reporting no allocation at all [5] - Risk perception is a key factor in the reluctance to allocate to gold and cryptocurrencies, with 26% of respondents citing a second wave of inflation as the most significant tail risk [5] Group 3: Central Bank Activity and Demand - Central bank purchases of gold were neutral in July, marking a pause after three years of record accumulation, where over 1,000 tons were added annually [7] - China continues to import non-monetary gold above the five-year average as part of its strategy to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar [8] - This steady flow of gold imports from China provides structural support for gold, even as institutional allocations lag [8]

Now, everyone knows that the stock market continues to fly higher and that pessimists are screeching that everything is overvalued. The bears, they do have plenty of data to point to. The S&P 500 is now trading at 3.15%x sales.It's the highest valuation in history. Not so fast, my friends. There's a number of considerations worth unpacking here.For example, the US stock market is denominated in dollars, as you all know, and those dollars have been debased at a much faster pace than what the public has been ...