June 15, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea A Détente, Not a Deal: The State of US-China Trade While media headlines may have suggested last week's trade agreement between the US and China was a breakthrough, we think investors need to see it more as a détente than a comprehensive deal. The agreement represents a tactical pause in escalating tensions rather than a resolution of fundamental disagreements. Why view it this way? Consider: This limited deal aligns with Mo ...

China Musings | Asia Pacific 3 New Shifts, 1 Sticky Theme We address three changes that have taken place since our mid- year outlook (trade talks, trade-ins, and the trickle of reform), and one that hasn't: why deflation remains the core macro constant. June 12, 2025 08:24 AM GMT • Allocated trade-in funding is used up in some regions: According to official disclosures, the central government has allocated and distributed two batches of trade-in funds. Rmb81bn on January 6, and another Rmb81bn in late April ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research 19 May 2025 Correction (first published 16 May 2025) China Local Markets Weekly Implications of a US-China tariff ceasefire Executive summary Emerging Markets Strategy Tiffany Wang AC (852) 2800-1726 tiffany.r.wang@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Arindam Sandilya (65) 6882-7759 arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch Gr ...

13 May 2025 | 6:25PM SGT Global Markets Daily: Asian FX — What's Changed, What's Not, and Where Next From Here? (Suwanapruti) Asian FX — What's Changed, What's Not, and Where Next From Here? On Monday, 12 May, the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause in retaliatory tariffs imposed on Chinese imports in April, which will leave the US tariff increases at +30pp (from +145pp, previously). Likewise, China also reduced its retaliatory tariff on US imports to +10pp (from +125pp, previously). While we expe ...

May 12, 2025 10:21 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited US-China Tariff Cut: Sooner and Deeper US-China tariff de-escalation arrived faster and deeper than the market expected with a joint announcement today of reversal of the tit-for-tat tariff escalation and suspension of 24% of the remaining reciprocal 34% hike for a 90-day window, from May 14. This puts the effective US trade-weighed tariff on China at ~40%, down from 107%, significantly better than our baseline assumption o ...