Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the overall cooling of inflation in the U.S. as of March 2025, highlighting a decrease in CPI and core CPI, alongside rising market concerns regarding economic uncertainty and trade tensions, which have led to a risk-off sentiment in the market [1][2][3][4]. Inflation Data Summary - The CPI year-on-year decreased to 2.4% from 2.8%, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% [1][5][6]. - Core CPI year-on-year was 2.8%, down from 3.1%, with a month-on-month change of 0.1% [1][9]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI for March was 3.0%, lower than the previous 3.07% [9]. - The Atlanta Fed's Sticky CPI year-on-year was 3.28%, also down from 3.50% [9]. Market Reactions - The data increased the probability of interest rate cuts, with Bloomberg's implied June rate cut expectation rising to 100% from 81.5% [2][12]. - Following the data release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 9 basis points to 4.43%, while major stock indices experienced declines, with the Nasdaq down 4.3% [2][12]. Risk-Off Sentiment Factors - One reason for the risk-off sentiment is the Federal Reserve's concerns about economic weakness and inflation rebound risks due to tariffs, leading to a cautious decision-making environment [2][13]. - Another factor is the ongoing escalation of trade tensions, with the White House announcing a total tariff of 145% on China, causing the VIX index to rise to 40.7 [3][16]. - Additionally, the recent significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 47 basis points to 4.46%, has contributed to market unease [4][17]. Fiscal Policy Context - The U.S. House passed a revised budget resolution for FY 2025, allowing for a potential increase in the deficit by up to $5.8 trillion before FY 2034, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [4][18][19]. - The budget resolution includes provisions for significant tax cuts, which could further complicate the fiscal landscape [18][19].

摘要 第一， 2025年2月美国通胀数据整体降温 ：CPI同比降至2.8% ，前值3%，预期2.9%；环比0.2%，前值 0.5%，预期0.3%。核心CPI同比3.1%，前值3.3%，预期3.2%；环比0.2%，前值0.4%，预期0.3%。从 克利夫兰联储Trimmed Mean CPI和亚特兰大联储粘性CPI来看，通胀广度和通胀粘性均继续回落。 第二， 如我们前期报告所述，季节性残留导致1月部分商品和服务价格上涨幅度被高估，即"1月效应"，这一 变化会在后续数据中逆转。从2月数据来看，1月反弹幅度较大的汽车保险、汽车卡车租赁、处方药、娱乐商 品等价格明显回调，环比分别从2%、1.7%、2.5%、0.3%回落至0.3%、-1.3%、0%、-0.7% 。 第三， 权重较大、粘性较强的住房项价格增速亦有所放缓，2月环比0.3%，前值0.4%。一则业主等价租金 （OER）和主要居所租金环比都趋于稳定，两者2月环比均保持在0.3%。作为领先指标的新租客租约价格 （NTRR）同比增速已落入负值；二则外宿环比增速显著回落至0.2%，前值1.4%。现阶段，OER和主要居所 租金3月环比年化分别为3.8%和3.7%，接近疫情 ...