Our next guest says potentially strong data could put pressure on Lily shares. For more, let's bring in Kessive Capital managing director Len Yaffy. Len, great to have you with us. Good to see you.>> Thank you so much. >> So, we're expecting a couple of readouts on Marit Amgen's drug. Len, so what what's the scenario here.The the data is good. And what do you characterize as good and what does that mean. I think the key with maritide and this is part two of a phase two study is what is the incidence if we l ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential strong data from Amgen's drug Maritide could exert pressure on Eli Lilly's shares, particularly due to concerns about side effects and market competition [1][3]. Company Analysis - Eli Lilly is expected to face significant competition in the obesity drug market, with three drugs already on the market and four in advanced clinical studies by the time Maritide is projected to receive FDA approval in 2028 or 2029 [3]. - The valuation of Eli Lilly is currently high, trading at approximately 35 times next year's earnings estimates, which raises concerns about its ability to move significantly higher in the short term [7][6]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in stock price, but there is a risk that favorable data for Maritide could lead investors to take profits from Eli Lilly [6]. Industry Insights - The obesity drug market is projected to grow from $20 billion in the US this year to $150 billion by 2030, indicating a transformative opportunity for companies involved in this drug class [9]. - The current drug category, including incretins and amylins, is noted for its potential to prevent morbidity and mortality associated with common chronic conditions, making it a significant area of focus for pharmaceutical companies [10]. - The Institute for Clinical Economic Research highlighted that certain drugs, like Zepbound, not only improve quality of life but also provide cost savings to the healthcare system, emphasizing the economic benefits of this drug category [10].

Core Viewpoint - The global weight loss drug market is projected to reach at least $100 billion by 2030, growing sixfold from 2024, with Eli Lilly expected to surpass Novo Nordisk in market share by 2025 [3][4][6]. Market Overview - The weight loss drug sales are anticipated to grow significantly from 2024 to 2030, reaching at least $100 billion, which is 7% higher than previous analyses [4]. - The analysis includes a broader range of drugs and adjusts treatment duration and epidemiological assumptions, expanding the target patient population [4]. - By 2030, the estimated number of treated patients is approximately 24 million in the U.S. and 22 million in Europe [4]. Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly is expected to increase its market share from 43% to 53% by 2030, while Novo Nordisk's share is projected to decline from 57% to 33% [6]. - The market will see the entry of up to 24 new weight loss drugs by the end of 2030, compared to only six currently available [6]. Drug Class Insights - GLP-1 injection formulations are expected to dominate the market, with sales projected to reach approximately $81 billion from 2024 to 2030 [8][11]. - The sales peak for Eli Lilly's Zepbound/Mounjaro is expected to reach $40 billion, while Novo Nordisk's Wegovy is projected to peak at $20 billion [8][11]. Future Projections - By 2035, the weight loss drug market could grow to $167 billion, with a peak of $171 billion expected by 2036 [4]. - New GLP-1 injection drugs are anticipated to launch starting in 2026, with significant sales potential for drugs like Novo Nordisk's Cagrisema and Eli Lilly's Retatrutide [11].