Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 10% revenue growth through the first nine months of the year, with product sales growth at 11% driven by a 14% volume growth [9][10] - In Q3, revenue growth was 12%, also driven by 14% volume growth, indicating strong momentum in the business [10] - Non-GAAP research and development expenses increased by 31% year over year in Q3, with a total of approximately $200 million spent on business development [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Repatha experienced a 30% year-over-year growth over the first nine months, with significant potential for future growth due to low penetration rates in the PCSK9 therapy market [13] - Evenity also grew by 30% year over year, holding a 60% market share in the U.S. bone builder market, with a large untapped patient population [14] - Tezspire achieved a remarkable 50% growth year over year, reaching $1 billion in sales in the U.S. for severe asthma [14] - The rare disease portfolio is annualizing at nearly $5 billion, growing 12% year over year, with Uplizna growing 50% year over year [15] - The innovative oncology segment grew by 11% year over year, driven by products like Blincyto and Imdeltra [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the penetration rates for PCSK9 therapy remain low, indicating significant growth opportunities in the market [13] - The rare disease market is expanding, particularly for Uplizna, which has seen increased usage in IgG4-related diseases [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a volume-driven growth strategy, investing in innovation and science to enable longer, healthier lives [11] - Capital allocation priorities emphasize innovation, with a mid-20% allocation to R&D and a capital expenditure guide of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion for the year [27][30] - The company is actively engaging with the government on pricing and access issues, aiming to enhance affordability for patients [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong momentum of the business and pipeline, highlighting the importance of innovation in the current environment [11][27] - The company anticipates increased competitive intensity in the biosimilar market, particularly for Prolia and Xgeva, but expects growth from its six major growth drivers [46][47] Other Important Information - The company is exploring opportunities in rare diseases and remains open to business development activities, including licensing and acquisitions [55] - The company has launched Amgen Now, a direct-to-consumer program aimed at increasing access to Repatha [32][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the impact of biosimilars on Prolia and Xgeva? - Management expects competitive intensity to increase, leading to revenue declines for Prolia and Xgeva, but anticipates growth from other product lines to offset this erosion [46][47] Question: How is the company navigating the pricing and access landscape? - The company has a history of successfully navigating pricing and access issues and remains confident in its ability to manage these challenges moving forward [36] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding rare diseases? - The company is pleased with its entry into the rare disease market and is open to further opportunities in this area, leveraging its existing capabilities [49][55]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 10% revenue growth through the first nine months of the year, with product sales growth at 11% driven by a 14% volume growth [10] - In Q3, revenue growth was 12%, also driven by 14% volume growth, indicating strong momentum in the business [10][11] - Non-GAAP research and development expenses increased by 31% year-over-year in Q3, with a total of approximately $200 million spent on business development [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Repatha experienced a 30% year-over-year growth over the first nine months, with significant potential for future growth due to low penetration rates in the PCSK9 therapy market [13] - Evenity also grew by 30% year-over-year, holding a 60% market share in the U.S. bone builder market, with a large untapped patient population [14] - Tezspire achieved 50% year-over-year growth, surpassing $1 billion in sales in the U.S. for severe asthma [14] - The rare disease portfolio is annualizing at close to $5 billion, growing 12% year-over-year, with Uplizna growing 50% year-over-year [15] - The innovative oncology segment grew by 11% year-over-year, driven by products like Imdeltra and Blincyto [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the penetration rates for PCSK9 therapy remain low, indicating significant growth opportunities in the market [13] - The competitive intensity in the biosimilar market is expected to increase, particularly for Prolia and Xgeva, which may lead to revenue declines [43] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a volume-driven growth strategy, investing in innovation and science to enable longer, healthier lives [11] - Capital allocation priorities emphasize innovation, with a mid-20% allocation to R&D and a capital expenditure guide of $2.2-$2.3 billion for the year [26][29] - The company is actively engaging with the current administration regarding pricing and access policies, aiming to enhance affordability for patients [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong momentum of the business and pipeline, highlighting the importance of innovation in the current environment [11][26] - The company anticipates continued growth from its six major growth drivers, including Repatha, Evenity, Tezspire, and its rare disease portfolio [15][45] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by increasing competition in the biosimilar market but remains optimistic about offsetting these challenges with growth from other segments [43][45] Other Important Information - The company is exploring opportunities in rare diseases and remains open to business development activities, including licensing and acquisitions [52] - The direct-to-consumer program, Amgen Now, was introduced to enhance access to Repatha, reflecting a strategic move towards consumer engagement [30][38] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the impact of biosimilars on Prolia and Xgeva? - Management expects competitive intensity to increase, leading to revenue declines for Prolia and Xgeva, but anticipates different erosion curves for each product due to their market dynamics [43][44] Question: How does the company view its position in the rare disease market? - Management expressed satisfaction with its entry into the rare disease market and sees significant opportunities for growth, leveraging its existing capabilities [46][52] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding Maritide and its potential in other indications? - The company is monitoring the field for opportunities to expand Maritide's use beyond obesity and diabetes, considering its potential in related comorbidities [60][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 10% revenue growth through the first nine months of the year, with product sales growth at 11% driven by a 14% volume growth [9][10] - In Q3, revenue growth was 12%, also driven by 14% volume growth, indicating strong momentum in the business [9][10] - Non-GAAP research and development expenses increased by 31% year over year in Q3, with a total of approximately $200 million spent on business development [12][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Repatha experienced a 30% year-over-year growth over the first nine months, with significant potential for future growth due to low penetration rates in the PCSK9 therapy market [13] - Evenity also grew by 30% year over year, holding a 60% market share in the bone builder market in the US, with a large untapped patient population [13] - Tezspire achieved 50% year-over-year growth, surpassing $1 billion in sales in the US for severe asthma [14] - The rare disease portfolio is annualizing at close to $5 billion, growing 12% year over year, with Uplizna growing 50% year over year [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The biosimilar portfolio grew by 40% year over year, now annualizing at approximately $3 billion, with cumulative revenues of $13 billion since inception [15] - The company expects increasing competitive intensity in the biosimilar market, particularly for Prolia and Xgeva, which may lead to revenue declines [43][44] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes innovation as its top capital allocation priority, with a focus on internal and external growth opportunities [26][28] - The company is actively engaging with the current administration regarding pricing and access policies, aiming to enhance affordability for patients [31][32] - The company is exploring opportunities in rare diseases, indicating a strong interest in expanding its portfolio in this area [48][57] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong momentum of the business and pipeline, highlighting the importance of volume-driven growth strategies [9][10] - The company remains optimistic about the long-term growth outlook, driven by its therapeutic areas and ongoing investments in innovation [10][12] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by increasing competition in the biosimilar market but believes that growth drivers in other areas will offset these challenges [46] Other Important Information - The company is preparing for upcoming PDUFA dates, particularly for Uplizna, which is expected to drive further growth [15] - The company is focused on expanding its manufacturing capabilities to support the increased volume growth [29][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is Amgen's current position regarding agreements with the administration on manufacturing and pricing? - The company is actively engaging with the administration and has had positive relations, emphasizing its commitment to innovation and affordability for patients [31][32] Question: How does the company view the competitive landscape for Maritide in the obesity and diabetes space? - The company is confident in its ability to navigate pricing and access challenges, leveraging its experience from previous product launches [35][39] Question: What are the expectations for the denosumab biosimilar market? - The company anticipates increased competitive intensity and revenue declines for Prolia and Xgeva, but expects growth from other product lines to offset these declines [43][44] Question: How does the company plan to approach business development in rare diseases? - The company is open to various business development strategies, including licensing and acquisitions, to expand its rare disease portfolio [48][57]

Our next guest says potentially strong data could put pressure on Lily shares. For more, let's bring in Kessive Capital managing director Len Yaffy. Len, great to have you with us. Good to see you.>> Thank you so much. >> So, we're expecting a couple of readouts on Marit Amgen's drug. Len, so what what's the scenario here.The the data is good. And what do you characterize as good and what does that mean. I think the key with maritide and this is part two of a phase two study is what is the incidence if we l ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential strong data from Amgen's drug Maritide could exert pressure on Eli Lilly's shares, particularly due to concerns about side effects and market competition [1][3]. Company Analysis - Eli Lilly is expected to face significant competition in the obesity drug market, with three drugs already on the market and four in advanced clinical studies by the time Maritide is projected to receive FDA approval in 2028 or 2029 [3]. - The valuation of Eli Lilly is currently high, trading at approximately 35 times next year's earnings estimates, which raises concerns about its ability to move significantly higher in the short term [7][6]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in stock price, but there is a risk that favorable data for Maritide could lead investors to take profits from Eli Lilly [6]. Industry Insights - The obesity drug market is projected to grow from $20 billion in the US this year to $150 billion by 2030, indicating a transformative opportunity for companies involved in this drug class [9]. - The current drug category, including incretins and amylins, is noted for its potential to prevent morbidity and mortality associated with common chronic conditions, making it a significant area of focus for pharmaceutical companies [10]. - The Institute for Clinical Economic Research highlighted that certain drugs, like Zepbound, not only improve quality of life but also provide cost savings to the healthcare system, emphasizing the economic benefits of this drug category [10].

Core Viewpoint - The global weight loss drug market is projected to reach at least $100 billion by 2030, growing sixfold from 2024, with Eli Lilly expected to surpass Novo Nordisk in market share by 2025 [3][4][6]. Market Overview - The weight loss drug sales are anticipated to grow significantly from 2024 to 2030, reaching at least $100 billion, which is 7% higher than previous analyses [4]. - The analysis includes a broader range of drugs and adjusts treatment duration and epidemiological assumptions, expanding the target patient population [4]. - By 2030, the estimated number of treated patients is approximately 24 million in the U.S. and 22 million in Europe [4]. Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly is expected to increase its market share from 43% to 53% by 2030, while Novo Nordisk's share is projected to decline from 57% to 33% [6]. - The market will see the entry of up to 24 new weight loss drugs by the end of 2030, compared to only six currently available [6]. Drug Class Insights - GLP-1 injection formulations are expected to dominate the market, with sales projected to reach approximately $81 billion from 2024 to 2030 [8][11]. - The sales peak for Eli Lilly's Zepbound/Mounjaro is expected to reach $40 billion, while Novo Nordisk's Wegovy is projected to peak at $20 billion [8][11]. Future Projections - By 2035, the weight loss drug market could grow to $167 billion, with a peak of $171 billion expected by 2036 [4]. - New GLP-1 injection drugs are anticipated to launch starting in 2026, with significant sales potential for drugs like Novo Nordisk's Cagrisema and Eli Lilly's Retatrutide [11].