All right. So, I'm looking at the futures. They're higher.They're certainly higher across the board, but uh maybe just relatively muted. I'm looking at the S&P up about a third of 1%, the NASDAQ up about a half a percent. Are you surprised at all about that.I've heard a lot of people say uh basically that 15% tariffs, they seem palatable. Is that what the market's saying that 15% tariffs we can deal with. Not ideal, but we can deal with that.Uh, I think it's an example of the market being a little short-ter ...

So, let's bring in Courtney Brown, senior economic reporter for Axios. Yamich Alendor is back with us, of course, covering the president. Ned Price never left us.So, Ned, thank you for being here. Yamich, your take on what we heard there be because the president had said earlier, yeah, there's a 50-50 chance that this is going to happen. That is a better percentage chance than he often gives any kind of negotiations when he's going in.So, was this expected. Uh well, the president said that while it was a 50 ...

Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer, my friends. I'm just trying to make you a little bit of money here. My job not just to entertain but to educate you. So call me at 1800743 CBC. Tweet me Jim Kmer. Many times in my career I've heard people claim that a week was pivotal as if it can change the direction of the entire market. Next week, no hyperbole is pivotal. It's significant. I'm going to make it a free fire zone of superlatives. And here's why. We have not only a Fed meeting, not on ...

Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer with my friends.I'm just trying to make you a little bit of money here. My job not just to entertain but to educate you. So call me at 1800743 CBC.Tweet me Jim Quimmer. Many times in my career I've heard people claim that a week was pivotal as if it can change the direction of the entire market. Next week hyperbole is pivotal.It's significant. I'm willing to make it a free fire zone of superlatives. And here's why.We have not only a Fed meeting, not o ...

Many times in my career, I've heard people claim that a week was pivotal, as if it can change the direction of the entire market. Next week, no hyperbole is pivotal. It's significant.I'm willing to make it a free fire zone of superlatives. And here's why. We have not only a Fed meeting, not only the non-farm employment report, but we also have earnings from Apple, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft.In short, next week determines the market's direction for the duration or at least the rest of the summer. ...

Market Performance & Trends - S&P 500 closed just below 6400, up approximately 04% on the day [6] - Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher by about 05% for the day, with a weekly gain of about 13% [7] - Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite each rose about 025% on the day, 1% on the week [7] - Russell 2000 also participated, up 04% on the day and about 09% on a weekly basis [7] - Broad-based buying with 332 names in the S&P 500 to the upside [8] Sector & Company Specific Highlights - Materials and Industrials each gained about 2%, and Consumer Discretionary up about 08% [8] - Energy sector was lower by 04%, and Communication Services moderately lower [8] - Deckers (UGG and HOKA) saw UGG sales rising about 19% and HOKA sales increasing roughly 20% [10] - Yeti's stock was up about 56% following reports of potential takeover interest [11] - Tesla was a top gainer in the Nasdaq 100, with the stock up about 35% [14] - Intel's stock was down 85% after the CEO's comments sparked concerns about cost-cutting [16] - Charter Communications was down 85% after reporting a loss of 111000 residential high-speed internet customers [21] - PINNACLE Financial Partners and SYNOVUS were both down 12% and 125% respectively, after agreeing to an all-stock transaction valued at $86 billion [22] Federal Reserve & Economic Commentary - Former Dallas Fed President suggests it's not time to act in July but potentially in September [2][3] - Discussion around the pressure on the Fed and next week's Fed meeting [2] - Modest downward movement in yields, about one basis point across the board [23]

Economic Outlook & Inflation - The risk is that real estate prices are going down, with residential real estate constituting a significant portion of the CPI (one-third) and core CPI (40%) [1] - The employment report is crucial for determining whether the Fed will rekindle rate cuts at the September meeting [3] - Real work-based income, adjusted for inflation, is contracting, posing a challenge to the labor market [4] - Agricultural prices are rising globally, linked to climate change, while goods prices in general, including furniture and appliances, are expected to rise in the coming months [6][7] - 60% of the CPI is in services, which are disinflating, creating a tug-of-war with rising goods prices [8] Monetary Policy & Tariffs - The Fed is unlikely to provide clear guidance and will closely monitor the labor market to determine interest rate adjustments [5] - The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs deadline is a pivotal event, with the market watching for its impact on the US economy [2] - The extent to which the service sector will offset the goods inflation from tariffs is a key question [7] Labor Market - Cracks emerging in the labor market and a loosening up will make the Fed feel more relaxed about goods inflation if it doesn't feed into wages [3] - The employment number, including headline figures, revisions, unemployment rate, and participation rate, is critical [4]

What exactly about the job that Jay Powell has done is not up to measure. The labor market is holding up well. Inflation has not reared its ugly head.I mean, it's above the 2% target, but it hasn't blown up just yet. Where do you see the economy failing under his leadership. It's great to be with you.If you look at Jay Powell, his tenure, I mean, we do have to remember that it was under his watch that we saw a 40 year high inflation. They were way too late to recognizing the inherently inflationary impact o ...

Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs haven't materially increased inflation yet, but the situation is still evolving [2] - The impact of tariffs on pricing power and margins remains uncertain as companies assess demand elasticity [14][15] - The US has collected $266 billion in tariffs, surprisingly without sparking inflation [12] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Fed is waiting for clearer signs of labor market weakening before making further moves, influenced by political pressure [3] - A stable inflation rate of 25% to 3% and growth around 15% are considered acceptable [4] - Fiscal stimulus is driving demand, but supply-side productivity enhancements are crucial [5] Productivity and Innovation - There's significant potential for productivity growth driven by AI, life sciences, and robotics [6] - Increased productivity could raise the economy's speed limit [7] Risks and Challenges - Potential threats include the bond market's ability to absorb new issuance, the ultimate tariff regime, and Fed policy [7][8] - A too-tight Fed policy could negatively impact the economy [8] Bond Market and Interest Rates - The next big move for the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to be higher [9] - Even with Fed cuts, the yield curve is expected to steepen due to fiscal policy [10] - A 10-year Treasury yield between 45% and 5% and a 30-year yield above 5% are anticipated [10] Global Considerations - The US is less sensitive to interest rate moves compared to Japan, where rising rates could force institutional investors to sell foreign bond holdings [11][12]

Market Trends & Drivers - Bitcoin received a boost from the tech rally [1] - Short liquidations triggered a surge in Bitcoin's price [2] - Bitcoin ETF inflows reached over 1 billion USD, marking the biggest day this year [2] - Corporate buys and ETF inflows have supported Bitcoin, keeping it above 100,000 USD for over 60 days [3] - The rebound in crypto started in mid-April [3] External Factors & Potential Risks - Interest rates are a key focus for Bitcoin [4] - The Fed meeting at the end of the month will be interesting to watch for its impact on Bitcoin [4] - Potential termination of Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted at by President Trump influenced the market [3] Bitcoin Performance & Characteristics - Bitcoin outperformed gold [5] - Tech up and rates down is a good formula for Bitcoin [4] - Bitcoin reached the 110,000 USD level [2]