Inflation Overview - November year-over-year inflation rose by 27%, lower than economists' expectation of 31% [1][5] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not collect October data due to government shutdown [2][6][14][15][16] - The Federal Reserve ideally prefers inflation to be closer to 2% [7] Consumer Spending & Prices - Food prices increased by 26% year-over-year, lower than the previous reading of 31% [9] - Energy costs increased by 42% year-over-year, with electricity costs up by approximately 7% [10] - Shelter costs increased by 3% year-over-year, slower than the previous reading of 32% or 36% [11] - Apparel costs were essentially flat, up by two-tenths of a percent year-over-year [12] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - There is approximately a 25% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the January 28th meeting [12] - The Federal Reserve may cut rates once or twice in 2026, depending on the labor market [12][13] - Weaker jobs data could lead the Federal Reserve to cut rates more than once in 2026, potentially triggering some inflation [13]

The first inflation report since the government shutdown ended last month is now out. Inflation rose by 2.7% in November year-over-year. There is no month overmonth figure because the October report was cancelled due to the shutdown.What we're talking about here are better than expected numbers. If we're talking about November to November of last year, over that year period, prices increased by 2.7%. That was below what economists had expected.They were expecting something closer to 3.1%. So inflation being ...

Market Overview - The stock market is experiencing weakness, particularly in the tech sector, with the NASDAQ down 1.43% and the S&P 500 down almost 1% [1] - The Dow is down about 0.25%, while small caps, represented by the Russell 2000, are also showing similar trends [1] - The US dollar index is up about 0.25%, indicating a mixed performance across different sectors [1] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 is projected at 1.5%, with the labor market being a significant factor influencing this estimate [2] - Weak labor demand is noted, with online job postings and associated salaries at four-and-a-half-year lows, suggesting a potential decline in wages and consumption [2] - The consumer outlook is cautious, with expectations of pullbacks in spending due to wage pressures, particularly among middle and lower-income households [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller anticipates further interest rate cuts next year, suggesting a base case of four cuts, which is more than current market pricing [4][5] - Waller acknowledges that inflation remains above the Fed's target but expects it to decrease in the coming months as tariffs impact the economy [5] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostik expresses concerns about sticky inflation and does not foresee rate cuts at this time, indicating a divergence in Fed perspectives [7][8] Investment Strategies - There is a focus on identifying investment opportunities beyond mainstream AI winners, particularly in sectors utilizing AI for operational improvements, such as credit card companies and big box retailers [2] - The sentiment around tech valuations is mixed, with unprofitable tech stocks still outperforming profitable ones, but this trend is not expected to continue [2] - International equities are viewed cautiously, with a preference for selective investments in regions like Japan while being underweight in China due to trade tensions [2] Company-Specific Developments - GE Vernova is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity, with significant growth in orders for natural gas turbines and a bullish outlook for the electrification and power sectors [14][16] - Procter & Gamble is receiving attention for its potential to innovate and drive growth, despite facing a promotional environment that has led to market share losses [3] - Gap Inc. is undergoing a turnaround, with upgrades from analysts indicating improving results and margin expectations, although challenges remain with certain brands [3] IPO Market - The Medline IPO is noted as a significant event, with expectations for a strong start to the next year as companies push back IPO plans due to the recent government shutdown [60][62]

Core Viewpoint - The company positions itself as a Bitcoin-focused business rather than a traditional Treasury company, emphasizing the development of products and services that generate high margins, growth, and cash flow [1][14]. Business Model and Strategy - The company aims to operate in the intersection of various markets, including credit, lending, and prediction markets, while avoiding hyper-financialization and speculation [2][3][5]. - It is already the third largest treasury globally and plans to expand its treasury significantly [4][6]. - The focus is on building a business centered around Bitcoin financial services, which is seen as a major opportunity due to the lack of dedicated Bitcoin companies in the market [7][14]. Future Plans - The company is prioritizing the launch of a lending component, with expectations to introduce it sooner rather than later, potentially by early next year [10][12]. - There is a commitment to building long-term, sustainable products and services rather than engaging in short-term speculation [19][26]. Market Position and Perception - The company believes the market has not yet fully understood its unique position and potential, which may explain the current stock price decline [13][14][16]. - It emphasizes that it is not a passive fund or alternative ETF but a business focused on creating cash flow and innovative products [22][25]. Industry Context - The company advocates for passive investors to have access to Bitcoin, highlighting its performance as an asset over the past 15 years [24]. - It acknowledges the importance of being included in indexes but maintains that this is not critical for its success [25][26].

Economic Overview - Consumers are still spending despite an early chill for the holiday season, with core retail sales up 0.9%, indicating stronger performance than the headline figure suggests [1] - The labor market has shown stagnation in payroll since April, with the unemployment rate affected by government shutdowns leading to temporary layoffs [2] Holiday Season Insights - The holiday season is compressed into December, which previously resulted in strong job gains, suggesting a potential repeat this year [3] Future Economic Indicators - Anticipated rate cuts by the Fed and expansions to tax cuts retroactive to 2025 may lead to double-digit gains in tax refunds, which consumers often treat as windfall gains, potentially affecting inflation data [4] Inflation and Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is currently driven by healthcare and social assistance sectors, with concerns about the stickiness of inflation persisting even with potential improvements in employment [6][7] - There is a normalization of inflation occurring over five years, with sequential tariff-related increases contributing to this trend [8] Fed's Position and Market Sentiment - The Fed faces a divide between those advocating for lower rates and those concerned about inflation, with the current economic data suggesting that price stability has not been achieved [5][9]

Market Trends & Economic Data - Investors are preparing for more information on the US economy, with stocks, bonds, and the dollar wavering [3] - The week will bring economic data releases, including inflation and jobs reports, influencing future Fed policy [4] - The US Treasury market is debating the extent of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [12] - Delayed announcements of monthly employment and inflation figures due to the US government shutdown are creating a void [13] - There's a debate on whether the economy is transitioning from deleveraging to re-leveraging [40] M&A and Corporate Strategy - The pursuit of Warner Brothers Discovery by Netflix is ongoing, with concerns about job losses and theatrical releases [5] - Netflix co-CEOs are trying to reassure employees about the company's bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, reiterating no business overlap and studio closures [59] - Global M&A activity has been strong, with volumes at $45 trillion, setting up for 2026 to potentially exceed the record year in 2021 [78] - A potential Netflix acquisition of Warner Brothers could be a $827 billion deal [60] - iRobot filed for bankruptcy, with its common stock to be wiped out under the proposed Chapter 11 plan, listing between $100 million and $500 million in assets and liabilities [118][120] Energy & Utilities - National Grid is spending billions of dollars to prepare New York's electric grid for a generational shift, including data centers [93] - National Grid serves over 4 million customers in New York, delivering natural gas and electricity [97] - Cumulative power needs from companies wanting to connect to the New York grid over the next five years are estimated at about 10 gigawatts, tripling in size in one year [99][100] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) is down 13%, at $5674 a barrel [92] Cryptocurrency - MicroStrategy acquired almost $1 billion in Bitcoin for a second straight week, despite the cryptocurrency falling [124] - Bitcoin is down 23%, at $86,432 [10][92] - Bitcoin is down about 30% from an all-time high of just over $126,000 in early October [126] Financial Markets Performance - The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all in the red [8][55][56][91][115] - The Bloomberg Mag Seven index is holding onto a gain of 4/10 of 1% [8] - The S&P 500 index is down 1/10 of 1%, lower by six at 620 [9] - The NASDAQ composite index is down 3/10 of 1%, while the Dow Industrials are down 2/10 of 1% [9] - The ten-year Treasury yield is currently at 417%, with the two-year at 350% [9] - Gold is up 4/10 of 1%, at $4314 the ounce [10] - The Russell 2000 index is declining, down 6/10 of 1% [55] - Gold is up $13 the ounce, at $4312, up 3/10 of 1% [56]

The FDA has been an agency under fire. From controversial staff appointees to deep staffing cuts to being openly questioned by former FDA chiefs about medical policies. Now CNBC has learned that in the depths of the government shutdown, the FDA approved sending staffers on a quarter of a million dollar trip to a conference in Singapore, prompting questions about the agency's priorities. Here's the story. On the last day of the government shutdown, employees from the Food and Drug Administration boarded plan ...

Regulatory & Policy - Crypto market structure bill stalled due to Senate Democrat demands amidst looming government shutdown [1] - CFTC appointed the CEOs of Gemini, Polymarket, and Bullish to its Innovation Council [1] Market Innovation & Development - Bhutan debuted TER, a Solana-based token backed by physical gold [1] Media & Events - CoinDesk Daily hosted by @JennSanasie [1]

Summary of American Airlines Group FY Conference Call (December 10, 2025) Company Overview - **Company**: American Airlines Group (NasdaqGS:AAL) - **Event**: FY Conference Call - **Date**: December 10, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Performance - **Eventful Year**: The year was marked by significant challenges, including a government shutdown, but the company managed to build a strong foundation for the future [1][4] - **Labor Contracts**: American Airlines has secured labor contracts with cost certainty through 2027-2028, alleviating concerns about labor disputes [2][4] - **Debt Reduction**: The company successfully reduced total debt from $54 billion at the pandemic's peak to below $37 billion, with a target of reaching $35 billion by the end of 2027 [2][82] - **Fleet Modernization**: Deliveries of new aircraft from Boeing and Airbus have resumed, enhancing the fleet's capabilities [2][3] Financial Performance and Projections - **Capacity Growth**: The company anticipates a capacity growth of approximately 5% annually, supported by a fleet renewal program and no required retirements in the near term [12][13] - **Cost Management**: The company has implemented a re-engineering program aimed at driving efficiencies, with a target of achieving $1 billion in cost savings, of which $750 million has already been realized [21][23] - **Profitability Outlook**: The company expects to improve unit revenue performance and close the margin gap with competitors, particularly in the premium segment [48][52] Network and Market Strategy - **Network Expansion**: Growth opportunities are identified in hubs like Miami and Phoenix, with a focus on utilizing existing infrastructure rather than building new gates [5][18] - **Premium Market Positioning**: American Airlines is positioning itself as a premium airline, with 50% of revenues coming from premium traffic, and plans to enhance its premium offerings [26][31] - **International Growth**: The company plans to expand its international routes, leveraging its fleet of long-haul capable aircraft [78] Customer Experience and Technology - **Customer Experience Initiatives**: Investments are being made in lounges, Wi-Fi, and in-flight amenities to enhance customer satisfaction [6][30] - **AI Integration**: The company is exploring AI technologies to optimize operations and improve customer service, with a focus on disruption management and personalized offerings [56][61] Partnerships and Loyalty Programs - **Citi Partnership**: The partnership with Citi is expected to enhance the AAdvantage loyalty program, with projections of $10 billion in cash remuneration over the decade [70][71] - **Loyalty Program Growth**: The company anticipates a 10% annual growth in loyalty program remuneration, contributing positively to the P&L [71] Challenges and Risks - **Government Shutdown Impact**: The government shutdown is expected to have a significant impact on performance, with estimates of a $200 million pre-tax profit headwind [8][10] - **Economic Uncertainty**: The company remains cautious about economic conditions and consumer demand, which could affect capacity growth and profitability [17][52] Conclusion - **Optimistic Outlook**: Despite challenges, American Airlines expresses optimism for 2026, with a focus on leveraging its premium positioning, enhancing customer experience, and achieving financial targets [7][10][82]

Let's talk about the market reaction to all of this. Joining us this morning, Paul Hickeyi, co-founder at Bespoke Investment Group. Paul, it's great to have you back.Good morning. >> Good to be here. How you doing, Carl.>> I'm good. Uh, meantime, Hassets's on the tape as well. Do not expect mass layoffs from AI.How would you judge the market's ability to sort of game out all of these crazy long-term crossurrens. >> You know, I mean, I think there there are a lot of crossurrens and as we're talking about, th ...