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[music] Hello and welcome to Asking for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton. A big day in finance.The Fed makes its rate cut decision. [music] Plus, investors digest a slew of big tech earnings. There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know [music] to get ahead of the curve.The Federal Reserve delivering a rate cut in markets like the commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Pal. The S&P 500 [music] closing near all-time highs. We've got the takeaways from the trading day.Plus, a closer look at th ...

This is Richard Ramston. He basically runs this conference. Uh it's been going on for 36 years.I know there's record attendance. Uh and you had that conversation yesterday with Maryanne Lake, the CEO of Consumer Community Banking, which saw JP Morgan's stock drop as a result of the surprising guidance she gave on expenses. Um she of course said the biggest drivers were kind of growth related.Activity levels were higher. They were making strategic investments. What signal was the market sending here in its r ...

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate policy, with some members advocating for cuts to support a cooling labor market, while others caution that excessive cuts could reignite inflation [2][11][20] - Current market expectations indicate a nearly 90% chance of a rate cut, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated, but the actual impact of the Fed's statements moving forward is uncertain [1][5][6] - The affordability crisis for consumers is exacerbated by high borrowing costs, as credit card and auto loan rates have not decreased in line with Fed rate cuts, leading to increased debt burdens for families [17][18][30] 分组2 - The economy is showing signs of growth, with a projected GDP growth of around 3.5%, largely driven by AI-related capital expenditures, which may mask underlying weaknesses in the broader economy [23][32][34] - The disconnect between reported economic growth and consumer sentiment highlights that those without significant financial assets are not benefiting from the current economic conditions [31][34] - The Fed's decision-making is influenced by the need to address affordability issues, as the benefits of economic growth are not evenly distributed across the population [32][36]

Market Overview - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with NASDAQ showing a decline while other indices are performing positively [1] - The 10-year yield has reached 4.20%, the highest since September 4, raising questions about its impact on equities [1] Interest Rates and Equities - Technical resistance for the 10-year yield is noted between 425 and 430, with a more significant resistance level for equities identified at 450 [2] - Historical context shows that yields have risen after each cut since September, with current yields only nine basis points above the levels when cuts began [3] - The rise in yields following the September cut was 100 basis points by the end of the year, suggesting that current concerns about yield increases may be overstated [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The language used by the Fed regarding future rate cuts, particularly if it is hawkish, is expected to have a more substantial impact than today's rate decision [5] - There is speculation about the potential for elevated bond market volatility returning in 2026, which could pose challenges for the market [6][7] - The market appears to have already priced in a hawkish stance from the Fed, leading to bullish sentiment among investors [8] Earnings Reports and Market Reactions - Upcoming earnings announcements from Oracle and Broadcom are anticipated to be significant for market direction, potentially overshadowing the Fed's announcements [8][12] - The market is currently at a high, with the S&P and NASDAQ showing minimal percentage changes, indicating uncertainty about future guidance from major companies [12] Future Economic Indicators - The probability of a follow-on rate cut in January has decreased to 23%, with more confidence in a cut expected by June [19][20] - The upcoming economic data next week could dramatically alter the Fed's outlook and policy decisions [22]

Check the markets here as we wait for this afternoon's Fed decision. Of course, the news conference from the chair, NASDAQ's red, everything else is green, but certainly there feels like it's a wait and see. Uh Liz, nice to have you back.Um the 10-year yield 420. >> Yep. >> Okay.That's the highest since September the 4th. Piper Sandler today says, "Is the tenure at 425 the line in the sand for equities?" So, is that the biggest wild card today. what rates do on the back of whatever the Fed says.>> Uh, yes, ...

Bitcoin ETFs turn positive with $152 million in inflows ahead of Fed rate decision, while traders stay defensive amid expected volatility: analysts https://t.co/SICxDBuMfV ...

Buckle up. It is time for money power politics. On Monday, President Trump announced that he would allow Nvidia to sell its powerful H200 chips to China with the US pocketing 25% of the revenue.That announcement rolls back years of policies that were specifically designed to block Chinese access to advanced chips, something even his own justice department has warned about. Just hours before his announcement, the DOJ revealed they shut down a major chip smuggling ring that was linked to China. And the chips ...

Market Overview - Wall Street's main indexes closed lower, with the S&P 500 losing 23.89 points (0.35%) to 6,846.51, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 215.67 points (0.45%) to 47,739.32, and the Nasdaq Composite down 32.22 points (0.14%) to 23,545.90 [10] - The S&P 500 Communication Services Index was the biggest laggard, closing down 1.8%, primarily due to Netflix's performance [2][10] - The technology sector was the only advancing sector, gaining 0.9%, driven by Microsoft, Nvidia, and Broadcom [2][10] Company-Specific Developments - Paramount Skydance made a hostile bid of $108.4 billion to acquire Warner Bros Discovery, which led to a 4.4% increase in Warner Bros Discovery's shares and a 9% rise in Paramount's shares, while Netflix's stock dropped 3.4% [10] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, ended down more than 2%, contributing to the decline in the communications services index [11] - Marvell Technology shares fell 7% after Carvana secured a spot in the S&P 500, while Carvana's shares rose 12% [11] - Confluent shares surged 29% following IBM's announcement to acquire the data-infrastructure company for approximately $11 billion, while IBM's shares increased modestly by 0.4% [11] - Tesla's shares declined by 3% after Morgan Stanley issued a bearish outlook on the electric vehicle manufacturer [11] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Traders are anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a roughly 89% probability according to the CME's FedWatch Tool [10] - The market is expected to remain directionless until after the Fed meeting, as there will be no earnings reports for another four weeks [10] - Oppenheimer has set a year-end 2026 target of 8,100 points for the S&P 500, citing strong earnings and macroeconomic resilience [11] - The focus will shift to tech sector valuations with upcoming earnings reports from Broadcom and Oracle, amid concerns over debt-funded AI spending [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown stability as investors anticipate a Federal Reserve rate decision, with expectations of a quarter-point rate cut, which could influence gold demand due to lower cash yields [2][3]. Gold Price Trends - The opening price of gold futures on Tuesday was $4,219.60 per troy ounce, slightly up from Monday's closing price of $4,217.70 [1]. - Over the past week, gold prices have decreased by 0.3%, increased by 6% over the past month, and risen by 60.3% year-over-year [7]. Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting will include a Summary of Economic Projections, which will provide insights into GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates, with Chair Jerome Powell expected to comment on the interest-rate outlook for 2026 [2][3]. Market Dynamics - Analysts predict two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, potentially lowering the federal funds target range to 3% to 3.25%, which may increase gold demand as falling interest rates reduce cash yields [3]. Investment Considerations - Gold is viewed as a stabilizer in a diversified portfolio rather than a driver of high returns, with appropriate expectations and allocation being crucial to limit pricing risk [10]. - Investors are advised to consider gold investments as speculative due to the unpredictable nature of commodity prices influenced by various macroeconomic and political factors [11].