Core Insights - A significant rally in major technology stocks continues, driven by strong earnings from companies like Amazon and Apple, which alleviated concerns about a potential tech bubble [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Magnificent Seven Index is on track for its seventh consecutive monthly gain, a streak only surpassed once in history [2]. - The S&P 500 Index increased by 0.2%, marking its sixth straight month of gains, with a nearly 40% rise since April, representing one of the fastest recoveries in stock market history [2]. - The Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 0.5% on Friday, reflecting the overall positive sentiment in the tech sector [2]. Group 2: Company Earnings - Amazon's shares surged due to its cloud unit achieving the strongest growth rate in almost three years, indicating robust performance in its core business [3]. - Apple projected a significant increase in sales for the holiday season following the release of new iPhones, reinforcing its position as a growth leader [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Positive developments in trade negotiations, particularly regarding access to China's rare earths, have contributed to a more optimistic market outlook [4]. - Concerns about the economic outlook persist, especially after the Federal Reserve indicated a reluctance to further reduce interest rates, which could impact market dynamics [5][6].

Investment Strategy & Market Outlook - Initially holding 95% in cash, the portfolio is now 50% cash due to high market valuations [1][3] - Cash is considered "king" currently, with plans for aggressive buying during market corrections [2] - Holding cash provides a 4-5% interest rate from U S Treasuries, making it a safe and attractive option [3] - Emerging markets are showing promise, keeping pace with the US market in the last year [3][4] - Trade negotiations are expected to conclude in the next 4-5 months, potentially boosting emerging markets [4] Regional Investment Opportunities - Japan presents opportunities with good earnings, low price-earnings ratios, and growth, despite the Bank of Japan's policy rate of about 0 5% and inflation around 2 7% [5] - India and Taiwan are also promising markets, despite facing high tariffs from the US administration [6] - India's self-contained market and trade restrictions mitigate the impact of tariffs [7][8] - Consumer companies, airlines, and telecoms (e g Bharti Airtel) in India are attractive investment sectors [9] Risks & Uncertainties - Tariffs have negatively impacted market sentiment, raising concerns about higher inflation and poor earnings for import/export-dependent companies [14] - The ultimate impact of tariffs remains uncertain, with potential legal challenges in US federal courts [15] - Competition in the tech sector, particularly in AI, poses a significant risk to tech investments [25][26]

Joel, just start with you on the tariff back and forth with the EU. I guess what's the advice while this plays out. I I think hold on to your seats because this this back and forth that we've been dealing with uh is unfortunately just part of the norm.Now, we do think we're going to end up with baseline tariffs of around 15%. Uh but Kelly, until we get there, these negotiations, it's going to create some volatility in the markets. It's going to create a little bit of anxiety.Uh and I think there is risk her ...

Gold steadied following a modest drop on Monday after Trump said he was open to more tariff negotiations with major economies including the European Union https://t.co/TpwzPDuDvI ...

Hey, good morning guys. So, the drip drip nature of these country bycountry tariff negotiations will continue today after the president posted overnight that at least seven more countries should get letters today laying out the new tariff rate that all of their exports to the US will face unless they strike a deal by August 1st. So, we have to wait to see what those are.But one trading partner that remains something of an open question is the European Union after Trump spoke with EU Commission President Urs ...

Iron ore fluctuated as Trump signaled he was open to more negotiations after he unveiled his first wave of letters threatening to impose higher tariffs https://t.co/XOsocqqhPy ...

US President Donald Trump said that his administration may begin sending out letters to trading partners as soon as Friday setting unilateral tariff rates ahead of a July 9 deadline for negotiations https://t.co/di5xsoJLJY ...

President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on "reciprocal" tariffs against trading partners could be extended beyond its current July deadline as negotiations continue, a top White House official said Wednesday. https://t.co/i8dx0wBBdp ...

Market Overview - The Dow experienced significant volatility, moving 2500 points within the first hour, ultimately closing down -349 points (-0.91%) [1] - The S&P 500 decreased by -11 points (-0.23%), while the Nasdaq managed a slight gain of +15 points (+0.10%) [1] - The small-cap Russell index fell by -16 points (-0.92%) [1] Tariff Negotiations - Some countries are open to negotiating trade levels with the U.S., but President Trump remains firm on his tariff policies, threatening an additional +50% tariff on China if they do not remove their retaliatory +34% tariff [2] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs issued a note titled "Countdown to Recession," predicting a U.S. recession if current tariff policies persist [3] - BlackRock's CEO Larry Fink suggested looking for buying opportunities but warned that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates this year, with many believing a recession is already underway [3] Inflation and Bond Yields - Concerns about tariffs leading to higher prices and potential stagflation were raised, with bond yields increasing approximately 20 basis points, bringing the 10-year yield above +4.2% and the 2-year yield around +3.92% [4] Upcoming Economic Data - The NFIB optimism index for March is expected to be released, with the previous month showing a reading of 100.7, although a dip below 100 is anticipated [4] - Q1 earnings season is set to begin, with Delta reporting on Wednesday and major banks like JPMorgan releasing results on Friday [5] - CalMaine Foods, a significant supplier of shell eggs, is scheduled to report earnings after the market closes, currently holding a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock experienced significant volatility, closing up 3.5% after fluctuating between gains of 7.9% and losses of 8.2% during the trading session [1][3]. Market Reaction - The stock market faced extreme volatility due to investor reactions to news regarding tariffs, with major indexes initially opening in the red but recovering later in the day [2]. - The S&P 500 index ended down 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite managed a slight gain of 0.1% [2]. Tariff News Impact - Nvidia and other tech stocks faced early sell-offs following President Trump's comments about potential additional tariffs on China, including a threat of a 50% tariff on Chinese goods [3]. - A brief market surge occurred on unverified reports of a 90-day pause on new tariffs, which was later denied by the White House, leading to further sell-offs [4]. Future Outlook for Nvidia - Macroeconomic uncertainty poses challenges for Nvidia's outlook, despite semiconductors being excluded from new tariffs. The lack of clarity on economic conditions may lead to reduced spending from key customers [5]. - High levels of volatility in Nvidia's stock are expected to continue until there is more clarity on tariffs, inflation, and global growth prospects [5].