Core Insights - eBay has seen significant changes in institutional ownership, with several large investors increasing their stakes in the company during the second quarter of the year [1] - Analysts have varied opinions on eBay's stock, with target prices ranging from $78.00 to $110.00 and an average consensus price target of $94.47 [2] - eBay reported strong earnings for the last quarter, exceeding expectations with an EPS of $1.36 and revenue of $2.82 billion, marking a 9.5% year-over-year increase [4] Institutional Ownership - ABN AMRO Bank N.V. acquired a new stake worth $235.15 million in eBay [1] - Arrowstreet Capital increased its position by 1,007.4%, now holding shares valued at $163.06 million [1] - M&G PLC boosted its stake by 88.8%, with shares now valued at $206.14 million [1] - Valeo Financial Advisors increased its stake by 19,822.5%, now owning shares worth $96.13 million [1] - 87.48% of eBay's stock is owned by institutional investors [1] Analyst Ratings - TD Cowen raised its target price from $80.00 to $84.00, maintaining a "hold" rating [2] - Goldman Sachs increased its target from $72.00 to $78.00, assigning a "sell" rating [2] - Benchmark raised its price objective from $100.00 to $110.00, giving a "buy" rating [2] - Deutsche Bank lifted its target from $96.00 to $100.00 [2] - The average rating for eBay's stock is "Hold" with a consensus price target of $94.47 [2] Financial Performance - eBay's latest earnings report showed an EPS of $1.36, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.33 by $0.03 [4] - The company's revenue for the quarter was $2.82 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.73 billion [4] - eBay's net margin was 20.37% and return on equity was 41.94% [4] - The company has set FY 2025 guidance at 4.090-4.140 EPS and Q4 2025 guidance at 1.310-1.360 EPS [4] Stock Information - eBay's stock opened at $90.91, with a market capitalization of $41.09 billion [3] - The stock has a P/E ratio of 19.76 and a P/E/G ratio of 2.12 [3] - eBay's 52-week low is $58.71 and the high is $101.15 [3] Dividend Information - eBay announced a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share, representing an annualized dividend of $1.16 and a yield of 1.3% [5] - The dividend payout ratio is 25.22% [5] Insider Transactions - SVP Mazen Rawashdeh sold 1,920 shares at an average price of $81.90, totaling $157,248 [6] - SVP Cornelius Boone sold 4,462 shares at an average price of $83.94, totaling $374,540 [8] - Over the last ninety days, insiders sold 53,675 shares valued at $4,388,825 [8]

Key Points Etsy has had a difficult time growing its gross merchandise sales in recent years. Investors should pay attention to two important metrics heading into 2026. Given the stock’s poor performance, the market has low expectations for Etsy’s future. 10 stocks we like better than Etsy › Etsy (NYSE: ETSY) is one of the best examples of how much an external event like the COVID-19 pandemic can change a business' fortunes in short order. The health crisis led to a surge in online shopping, which ...

Core Thesis - eBay Inc. is undergoing a transformation from a legacy auction platform to a high-growth, AI-enhanced marketplace, with significant revenue growth and strategic initiatives in place [2][3][5] Financial Performance - eBay reported Q3 2025 revenue growth of 9% to $2.8 billion, with a 10% increase in GMV to $20 billion and a 25% growth in ad revenue to $525 million [2] - The company's trailing and forward P/E ratios are 18.34 and 13.97 respectively, indicating potential for re-rating compared to peers [1][5] Strategic Initiatives - Key drivers of growth include vertical expansion in Motors, Collectibles, Luxury, and refurbished tech, along with trust-enhancing programs like Secure Purchase and Authenticity Guarantee [3][4] - The integration of AI tools is improving conversion rates and basket sizes, while partnerships with OpenAI position eBay as a pioneer in autonomous e-commerce [3][5] Market Position and Growth Potential - eBay's Motors segment, bolstered by the Caramel acquisition, facilitates full end-to-end transactions, enhancing user engagement [4] - The company is trading at approximately 15x forward EPS, compared to peers at 20-25x, suggesting significant upside potential [5] - With over $2.5-3 billion in annual free cash flow, aggressive buybacks, and consistent dividends, eBay is positioned for stable growth [5] Future Outlook - Multiple catalysts such as AI adoption, ad growth, Motors expansion, and enhanced merchant tools could lead to a 30-50% upside from 2025 to 2028 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Etsy has faced significant challenges post-pandemic, with its stock down 77% from its peak, indicating struggles in returning to growth after a surge in interest during the stay-at-home period [1][2]. Leadership Change - CEO Josh Silverman will step down at the end of the year after eight years, with current President Kruti Patel Goyal set to take over as CEO on January 1, 2026 [4][5]. - Silverman played a crucial role in turning around Etsy since 2017, implementing layoffs and focusing on core business areas [2][3]. Performance Metrics - Despite recent challenges, Etsy's stock is up 24% for the year, showing signs of improving performance, including the adoption of ChatGPT's Instant Checkout [7]. - In Q3, gross merchandise sales (GMS) rose 0.9% to $2.72 billion, although GMS on the Etsy marketplace declined by 2.4% [8]. - Revenue increased by 6.1% to $678 million, surpassing consensus estimates, while adjusted EBITDA was $171.9 million, down from $183.6 million [9]. Market Position - Etsy's take rate is improving due to on-site ads and fee increases, with the company trading at approximately 10 times adjusted EBITDA, although a significant portion is attributed to share-based compensation [10]. - The company is perceived to have reached market saturation and may require a new direction under Goyal's leadership to reinvigorate growth [11].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated GMS for the third quarter was $2.72 billion, exceeding the top end of guidance, with a year-over-year decline of 0.9% when excluding Reverb [22][23] - Consolidated revenue grew 6.1% year over year to $678 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $172 million, representing a margin of 25.4% [23][30] - Etsy Marketplace GMS was down 2.4% year over year, but improved by 300 basis points sequentially from Q2 to Q3 [23][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Etsy Marketplace GMS declined 2.4% year over year, while Depop's GMS grew 39.4% year over year to $292 million, driven by new user growth and improved buyer conversion [10][23] - Services revenue increased by 12.7% year over year, primarily due to growth in on-site ad revenue at both Etsy and Depop [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Active buyer count was 86.6 million, down 5% year over year, but new and reactivated buyers totaled 11.4 million for the quarter, showing slight improvement [25] - GMS per active buyer remained stable at $1.21, with encouraging month-by-month improvements in purchase frequency and average item values [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on four strategic priorities: enhancing customer discovery, deepening loyalty, amplifying seller creativity, and leveraging AI for personalization [12][16] - A partnership with OpenAI aims to integrate Etsy listings into ChatGPT, enhancing the shopping experience and increasing brand consideration [13][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the consumer environment heading into the holiday season, with expectations for Q4 consolidated GMS between $3.5 billion and $3.65 billion [33][55] - The company is committed to investing in Depop's brand marketing to expand its market presence, which may compress margins in the near term but is seen as a long-term growth opportunity [34][84] Other Important Information - The company has made significant improvements in its app, with app GMS outperforming non-app GMS by 13 percentage points, indicating a positive impact from recent enhancements [16][27] - Seller satisfaction scores have increased by over 10% year over year, reflecting the effectiveness of new AI-powered tools and improved support [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the OpenAI partnership and its integration - Management highlighted the excitement around the OpenAI partnership, stating that Etsy listings will be included in the organic experience, with transactions processed through Etsy's payment system [38][40] Question: Engagement improvements on the app - Management discussed meaningful investments in reshaping the app's home screen to enhance discovery, leading to increased engagement metrics [44][46] Question: Fourth quarter guidance and holiday opportunities - Management provided insights on the uncertain consumer outlook for the holiday season, emphasizing the importance of their initiatives in driving sequential improvement [53][55] Question: Balancing traffic from AI platforms versus direct mobile - Management indicated that both channels can coexist and benefit Etsy, with agentic commerce expected to enhance brand consideration [78][82] Question: Investments planned for Depop - Management confirmed that the brand campaign for Depop is a long-term investment aimed at expanding awareness, which may compress margins in the short term but is expected to yield significant growth [79][84]

Core Insights - Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni has set a price target of $70 for Etsy, with the current stock price slightly above at $71.16 [1][4] - Etsy is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025, followed by a video webcast conference call [2][3] - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately $7.05 billion, with a trading volume of 2,164,573 shares, indicating significant investor interest and market liquidity [2][5] Stock Performance - Currently, Etsy's stock is trading at $71.16, marking a slight decrease of 0.41% or $0.30, with a trading session low of $69.63 and a high of $71.70 [4] - Over the past year, Etsy's stock has experienced volatility, with a peak of $76.52 and a trough of $40.05 [4] Upcoming Events - The forthcoming financial results and the accompanying conference call are poised to provide analysts and investors with a deeper understanding of Etsy's financial health and strategic direction [5] - The live-streamed event will facilitate direct interaction between research analysts and the company's management, fostering greater transparency and communication within the investment community [5]

Core Insights - Etsy experienced significant growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, but has struggled in recent years as consumer behavior normalized [1][3] - The stock has declined 47% over the past five years, resulting in a $10,000 investment shrinking to $5,300, while the S&P 500 doubled in value during the same period [2] - Gross merchandise sales on Etsy's platform reached $12.3 billion in the last 12 months, which is 9% lower than the total from 2021, indicating a decrease in buyer interest [3] - Current share prices are considered cheap, potentially attracting contrarian investors [4]

Group 1 - The company Etsy will transfer its common stock listing to the New York Stock Exchange [1] - Trading on the New York Stock Exchange is set to begin on October 13 [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter demonstrated resilience with GMV and revenue performing above the midpoint of guidance, while adjusted EBITDA exceeded the high end [5][19] - Operating expenses declined by 4% year over year, reflecting a commitment to cost management [5][28] - Net revenue was $22.1 million, flat year over year, with transaction revenue making up approximately 75% of total revenue [25][26] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was $1.8 million compared to a loss of $1.6 million last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin loss of 8% [28][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - GMV modestly declined, but market share was gained in the luxury home goods market [6][36] - Average order value was nearly $2,600, flat year over year, while median order values increased by 10% to approximately $13.50 [22] - Jewelry accounted for about 20% of total GMV, increasing in high single digits, while other verticals were flat or down [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Active buyers totaled approximately 64,400, up 5% [24] - The company ended the quarter with nearly 1.9 million listings, up 3%, but unique sellers decreased by 21% year over year [16][17] - The U.S. housing market has shown the slowest spring selling season in thirteen years, impacting the luxury home goods market [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The 2025 roadmap focuses on accelerating organic traffic growth, ensuring competitive pricing, and optimizing the multi-step conversion funnel [7][10] - The company is embedding AI throughout its platform to enhance efficiencies and capabilities [15] - A significant addition to the leadership team was made with the hiring of Bradford Shellhammer as chief marketing officer and chief product officer [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macro environment for luxury home goods remains challenging, with no major changes observed since the beginning of the year [35][36] - Despite a soft market, the company believes it can continue to gain market share based on its product roadmap [37] - The guidance for the third quarter reflects a modest rebound in average order value growth and continued conversion growth [30] Other Important Information - The company has implemented machine learning-based pricing models across all verticals to enhance pricing transparency [10][11] - Seller churn has remained elevated due to subscription pricing optimizations, but the impact on GMV and overall listings has been minimal [18][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in the overall environment since the beginning of the year - Management noted that there have not been major changes in the macro environment, with both the U.S. housing market and luxury home goods market remaining soft [35][36] Question: Vulnerability of organic traffic to AI-driven search results - Management acknowledged the potential impact of AI and chatbots on traffic but stated that there has not been a material impact on organic search traffic to date [39][40]

Core Insights - Etsy reported revenue of $672.66 million for the quarter ended June 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 3.8% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $648.01 million by 3.8% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period was $0.25, a decline from $0.41 a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of -53.7% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.54 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) reached $2.81 million, surpassing the average estimate of $2.77 million from 10 analysts [4] - Active buyers totaled 93,334, slightly below the estimated 94,648 from seven analysts [4] - Active sellers numbered 8,118, compared to the average estimate of 8,155 from three analysts [4] - Revenue from services was $204.49 million, exceeding the estimated $189.56 million from eight analysts, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.3% [4] - Marketplace revenue was $468.17 million, slightly above the average estimate of $459.65 million, but reflecting a year-over-year decline of 0.5% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Etsy's shares have returned +17.4%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.4% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]