36氪获悉，中信证券表示，2025年第一季度至第三季度轻工板块收入、利润承压，但其中造纸、包装印 刷率先修复，符合中信证券年中的判断。展望2026年，"反内卷"、创新与出海将成为轻工行业的发展主 线。国内市场，"反内卷"是主旋律，造纸行业预计底部改善，金属包装行业将迎来春天。AI技术（AI眼 镜、AI玩具等）将为行业注入新活力，而传统赛道的新势能也值得关注，如IP消费、产品的跨界融合与 功能性升级；国际市场，产能出海步入提效阶段，具有性价比优势、技术优势的品牌出海将是重中之 重。 ...

中信证券发布研报称，2025年Q1-Q3轻工板块收入、利润承压，但其中造纸、包装印刷率先修复，符合 年中的判断。展望2026年，反内卷、创新与出海将成为轻工行业的发展主线。国内市场，反内卷是主旋 律，造纸行业预计底部改善，金属包装行业将迎来春天。AI技术(AI眼镜、AI玩具等)将为行业注入新活 力，而传统赛道的新势能也值得关注，如IP消费、产品的跨界融合与功能性升级；国际市场，产能出海 步入提效阶段，具有性价比优势、技术优势的品牌出海将是重中之重。 中信证券主要观点如下： 业绩回顾：板块整体承压，造纸、包装印刷率先修复。 2025Q1-Q3家居板块净利润由正转负，板块盈利端压力较大；文娱轻工板块营业收入与净利润降幅Q3较 Q2均有所收窄；造纸板块盈利Q1亏损、Q2高增，Q3实现大幅增长，提前于收入修复；包装印刷板块 2025Q1-Q3营业收入同比增长9.6%，净利润同比增长12.7%，表现最亮眼。 展望一：反内卷改善行业供需格局。 金属包装：迎来行业春天。2025年奥瑞金（002701）收购中粮包装后，行业CR3集中度70%以上，我们 预计2026年二片罐行业总产能有望下降至约760亿罐，行业需求有望提升至接 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Yinglian Co., Ltd. Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Yinglian Co., Ltd. operates in two main sectors: fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) metal packaging and composite current collectors for solid-state batteries. The company has been in the FMCG metal packaging sector since its establishment in 2006 and is the only A-share listed easy-open lid supplier in China. In 2022, it entered the composite current collector industry, planning a project in Gaoyou, Jiangsu Province with an investment of 3.089 billion RMB, targeting a production capacity of 100 million square meters of composite aluminum foil and 500 million square meters of composite copper foil [doc id='5'][doc id='20']. Key Points and Arguments - **Strategic Procurement Agreement**: Yinglian has signed a strategic procurement agreement with a domestic new energy technology company for 50 million square meters of composite aluminum foil, with deliveries scheduled for 2026 (20 million square meters) and 2027 (30 million square meters). The total order value is estimated between 3.3 billion to 3.4 billion RMB, with the first batch expected to be delivered in December this year, generating revenue in Q1 of next year [doc id='2'][doc id='4'][doc id='7']. - **Financial Impact**: The large-scale order is expected to significantly enhance Yinglian's future financial performance, with an estimated gross margin of about 40% for the composite aluminum foil segment. The contract's annual execution will contribute to stable revenue growth over the next two years [doc id='8']. - **Research and Development**: Yinglian is developing lithium metal anode materials and specialized composite copper foil for sulfide solid-state batteries. The company is conducting tests on various thickness structures to enhance technical capabilities and broaden market applications [doc id='9'][doc id='10']. - **Client Base**: The client for the recent order is a leading company in the quasi-solid and semi-solid battery field, indicating a strong purchasing capability that will positively impact Yinglian's future business growth [doc id='11']. - **Production Capacity**: Yinglian has established production capacity for composite aluminum foil and has modified equipment to meet usage requirements, with approximately 3 to 5 GWh of equipment available for production. The company has also ordered additional production lines, aiming for a total capacity of 100 million square meters [doc id='12'][doc id='20']. Additional Important Information - **Testing and Validation**: Yinglian is currently validating composite copper foil with domestic and international clients, with some clients entering application testing phases, indicating potential positive developments soon [doc id='3'][doc id='22']. - **Market Outlook**: The company is optimistic about the market for solid-state and quasi-solid batteries, driven by national policies and government funding support, which is expected to accelerate industry development [doc id='17][doc id='18']. - **Cost Structure and Future Projections**: The current cost of Yinglian's pumps is 3.8 RMB, with potential for cost reduction as production volume increases and through optimization of second-generation equipment and processes [doc id='19']. - **Application of Composite Foils**: Composite aluminum foil is primarily used in high-value-added scenarios, with ongoing development in energy storage applications. The company is focusing on mature battery enterprises rather than startups [doc id='14']. - **Technical Advantages**: Yinglian's composite current collectors are designed to withstand the expansion of high-capacity anode materials, enhancing cycle life and performance in solid-state battery applications [doc id='22']. - **Future Production Plans**: The lithium metal anode production line is expected to begin installation in December, with batch deliveries anticipated in Q1 2026, gradually scaling up to industrial levels by mid-2027 [doc id='28']. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Yinglian's strategic initiatives, financial outlook, and advancements in technology and production capabilities.

Core Points - The controlling shareholder of Jiamei Packaging, China Food Packaging Co., Ltd., plans to reduce its stake by up to 1.5 million shares, representing 0.16% of the total share capital, within a three-month period from December 11, 2025, to March 10, 2026 [1] - Jiamei Packaging's revenue composition for the first half of 2025 shows that metal packaging accounts for 76.2%, filling accounts for 13.38%, and other segments account for 10.42% [1] - As of the report date, Jiamei Packaging has a market capitalization of 3.7 billion yuan [1] Company Summary - Jiamei Packaging holds approximately 428 million shares of Jiamei Food Packaging (Chuzhou) Co., Ltd., which constitutes 45.78% of the company's total share capital [1] - The planned share reduction by the controlling shareholder is part of a broader strategy, with the reduction expected to occur through centralized bidding or block trading [1] Industry Summary - The metal packaging segment is the dominant revenue contributor for Jiamei Packaging, indicating a strong market position in this area [1] - The company's diverse revenue streams, including filling and other segments, suggest a balanced approach to its business operations [1]

资金流向方面，主力资金净流出875.79万元，特大单买入232.00万元，占比2.32%，卖出600.60万元，占 比6.00%；大单买入1594.84万元，占比15.93%，卖出2102.03万元，占比20.99%。 奥瑞金今年以来股价涨3.42%，近5个交易日跌4.81%，近20日跌7.87%，近60日涨5.32%。 今年以来奥瑞金已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为10月14日。 11月18日，奥瑞金盘中下跌2.05%，截至13:14，报5.74元/股，成交1.00亿元，换手率0.68%，总市值 146.93亿元。 资料显示，奥瑞金科技股份有限公司位于北京市怀柔区雁栖工业开发区，成立日期1997年5月14日，上 市日期2012年10月11日，公司主营业务涉及食品饮料金属包装产品的研发、设计、生产和销售。主营业 务收入构成为：金属包装产品及服务93.31%，其他(补充)6.14%，灌装服务0.55%。 奥瑞金所属申万行业为：轻工制造-包装印刷-金属包装。所属概念板块包括：啤酒、债转股、低市盈 率、足球概念、世界杯等。 截至9月30日，奥瑞金股东户数4.58万，较上期增加1.58%；人均流通股55805 ...

双贲驭险,中期伏波 -- 申万宏源 2026 年全球资产配置投资策略 展望 2026 年, 全球资产配置环境或从美联储预防式降息, 逐步过渡至财政 与货币政策双宽松驱动的再通胀周期，密切关注年内流动性拐点对资产轮 动的影响。国内大类资产逻辑也有望逐步从流动性宽松推动转向基本面趋 势准动。 | 指数 涨跌 (%) | | --- | | 名称 | | ┣证指数 3972 -0.46 3.45 -1.16 | | 深证综指 2512 0.01 4.79 -0.7 | | 风格指数 (%) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 -0.65 | 1.69 | 18.16 | | 中盘指数 --0.32 -- | 2.64 | 27.58 | | 小盘指数 | 5.26 | 25.08 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | FEE | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海川 | 6.47 | 18.46 | 24.24 | | 焦炭Ⅱ | 6.2 | 26.46 | 57.21 | | 地面兵装II | 6.05 | 4.27 | 47.35 | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's defense equipment construction is entering a new cycle driven by both "steady growth in domestic demand" and "release of external potential" [15] - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [8][10] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to experience a structural recovery, with a focus on cyclical assets as economic demand stabilizes and PPI (Producer Price Index) begins to rise [10][11] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The report outlines three major trading themes for 2025, including the breaking of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, the impact of a weak dollar, and the tightening of liquidity due to government shutdowns [8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity turning points and their effects on asset rotation, suggesting a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental-driven asset logic in China [8][10] - Tactical strategies for 2026 include balancing equity and bond allocations initially, then shifting to an overweight position in equities as inflation and corporate earnings recover [8][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements in military equipment [15] - The report identifies opportunities in the light manufacturing sector, particularly in global supply chain shifts and the competitive advantages of leading companies [15][16] - It suggests that cyclical assets, particularly in sectors like power equipment, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from the anticipated recovery in PPI and economic demand [12][15] Group 3: Economic and Market Trends - The report predicts a stabilization in economic demand and a gradual recovery in PPI, which will influence market style factors and lead to a rotation from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - It notes that the historical relationship between M1-M2 growth rates and A-share performance suggests a potential upturn in corporate profitability and stock market performance in 2026 [11][12] - The report also highlights the importance of government policies, such as the "Fifteen Five" plan, which emphasizes economic construction and modernization of industries [12][15]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Yinglian Co., Ltd. experienced a 5.2% drop in stock price, closing at 19.67 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 234 million yuan and a turnover rate of 4.54%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 8.261 billion yuan [1] - Yinglian Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of "safe, environmentally friendly, and easy-to-open" metal packaging products, with its main business revenue composition being: easy-open lids for canned food 43.25%, easy-open lids for beverages 29.45%, other products 14.63%, easy-open lids for dry powder 12.60%, and lithium battery composite current collectors 0.06% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major circulating shareholders, a fund under AVIC Fund ranks among the top ten circulating shareholders of Yinglian Co., Ltd. The AVIC New Start Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund (005537) entered the top ten in the third quarter, holding 8.4766 million shares, accounting for 3.3% of circulating shares, with an estimated floating loss of approximately 9.1547 million yuan [2] - The AVIC New Start Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund (005537) has a total asset scale of 1.2 billion yuan, with a year-to-date return of 82.49%, ranking 118 out of 8213 in its category, and a one-year return of 65.88%, ranking 253 out of 8130 [2] - The fund manager of AVIC New Start Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund is Han Hao, who has been in the position for 7 years and 341 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 15.589 billion yuan, achieving a best return of 192.45% and a worst return of -13.32% during his tenure [3] Group 3 - The AVIC New Start Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund holds 8.4766 million shares of Yinglian Co., Ltd., which accounts for 7.93% of the fund's net value, making it the seventh largest holding, with an estimated floating loss of approximately 915,470 yuan [4]

Group 1: Smart Glasses - The global AI glasses market is expected to grow significantly, with sales projected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024 and 5.5 million units in 2025, driven by the launch of multiple AI glasses models from companies like Meta, Alibaba, and Baidu [1][23] - The integration of traditional optical companies into the smart glasses supply chain presents a new growth opportunity, particularly for lens manufacturers [1][40] - 康耐特光学 is highlighted as a leading lens manufacturer with ongoing collaborations in XR business, while 明月镜片 is noted for its partnership with Xiaomi for AI glasses [1][44][45] Group 2: Metal Packaging - The demand for two-piece cans is expected to recover as the market shifts towards increased canization, with the canization rate in China projected to rise from 29.56% in 2024, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed markets [2][52][55] - The industry is witnessing consolidation, with major players like 宝钢包装 and 奥瑞金 enhancing their market share through acquisitions, leading to a more concentrated market [2][59][60] - The profitability of two-piece cans is anticipated to improve as supply-side dynamics stabilize and companies expand their overseas production capabilities [2][64] Group 3: Export Chain - The easing of trade tensions and the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle are expected to benefit export-oriented companies, improving order volumes [3][19] - Companies like 英科医疗 and 英科再生 are positioned to capitalize on these trends, with ongoing expansions in overseas production [3][22] Group 4: Millet Economy - The millet economy is projected to grow from 168.9 billion yuan in 2024 to 308.9 billion yuan by 2029, driven by a large user base and increasing consumer interest among younger demographics [4][24] - The development of high-quality domestic IP is expected to stimulate consumer demand for millet products, supported by improved distribution channels [4][30]

Core Viewpoint - Jinfu Technology's stock price has surged nearly 100% since the beginning of the year, despite a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of the year, indicating market optimism about its long-term growth potential [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of the year, Jinfu Technology reported revenue of approximately 662 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.12% [1][2]. - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 93.44 million yuan, down 19.45% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to new production bases entering a ramp-up phase, leading to increased depreciation and amortization costs, as well as temporary production disruptions [1][2]. Market Position and Client Base - Jinfu Technology primarily serves major beverage companies such as JingTian, Coca-Cola, and Yanjing Group, with a high customer concentration [2][3]. - The company ranks fifth in revenue among eight industry peers, with its revenue of 662 million yuan, while the top company, Zijiang Enterprise, reported 7.82 billion yuan [3][4]. - In terms of net profit, Jinfu Technology ranks third, with a net profit of 93.44 million yuan, compared to Zijiang Enterprise's 966 million yuan [3]. Industry Trends - The demand for plastic bottle caps is driven by the significant growth in global bottled water, juice, and functional beverage consumption [3]. - The Chinese bottled water market has surpassed 100 billion yuan, leading to increased demand for standard 28mm bottle caps [3]. - There is a growing trend towards high-end, lightweight, and biodegradable caps due to the rising health consciousness among consumers [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Jinfu Technology is transitioning from plastic packaging to metal packaging, with plans to invest in new metal cap production lines [3][4]. - The company has reduced its investment commitments for several projects, including the plastic cap production base expansion, and is reallocating funds towards the metal cap project and the acquisition of Xiangzhao Technology [4][5]. - The acquisition of Xiangzhao Technology aims to enhance production capacity for new metal pull-ring caps, securing orders from clients like Yanjing Beer [5].