January 5, 2026 06:00 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific M Foundation Key Themes for 2026 In this slide deck, we discuss the key issues and debates for overall Asia, as well as for the top 6 economies – China, India, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, and Australia. Key themes for 2026: Asia: Recovery to broaden out to non-tech exports China: Divergence between macro and micro continues India: The surprise turnaround story for 2026 Sudhanshu Agarwal Economist Sudhanshu.Agarwal@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-4568 Jap ...

5 January 2026 | 7:01AM HKT Economics Research CHINA 2026 OUTLOOK Exploring New Growth Engines Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andr ...

BERLIN, Jan 2 (Reuters) - German exporters should prepare for continued weakness in 2026 in their two ​largest markets, the United States and China, with ‌little prospect of recovery, the BGA trade association said on Friday. "We ‌do not see a turnaround, but at best a brief respite," said BGA president Dirk Jandura. Exports to the U.S. are projected to have fallen more than 7% to ⁠just under 150 ‌billion euros ($156 billion) in 2025, while exports to China have contracted even more sharply, ‍dropping 1 ...

Photographer: Andre Malerba/Bloomberg Thailand posted a higher-than-expected trade deficit for a second month as a jump in imports outpaced sluggish export growth, underscoring economic risks including a stronger baht that threatens competitiveness. The trade deficit last month was $2.73 billion, exceeding the $1.36 billion forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The nation’s trade balance swung to a $3.4 billion deficit in October, the biggest gap since January 2023. Most Read from Bloomberg Th ...

By Makiko Yamazaki TOKYO, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Japan's exports rose for a third straight month in November, government data showed on Wednesday, ​as shipments to the U.S. rebounded for the first time ‌in eight months, bolstering the case for the central bank to continue raising interest rates. Total ‌exports by value rose 6.1% year-on-year last month, more than a median market forecast for a 4.8% increase and following a 3.6% gain in October. Exports to the United States rose 8.8% in November from a year ...

South Korea’s exports remained solid in November, a positive sign for policymakers as they navigate a wave of global protectionism https://t.co/VKWD12Hnxf ...

Summary of the 2026 China Economics Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Focus**: Economic growth, inflation trends, fiscal policy, and investment dynamics Key Points Economic Growth Projections - **Nominal GDP Growth**: Expected to be subdued at **4.1%** in 2026, with a rebound to **4.8%** in 2027 [3][10][11] - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected at **4.8%** in 2026 and **4.6%** in 2027, down from approximately **5%** in 2025 [10][11] - **CPI and Deflation**: CPI is expected to remain low due to property market drag and weak wage growth, with a gradual shift from deflation to lowflation anticipated by 2027 [4][80] Inflation Dynamics - **GDP Deflator**: Expected to be **-0.7%** in 2026, turning slightly positive at **0.2%** in 2027 [80] - **CPI Trends**: Core CPI is projected to remain subdued until **2H26-2027**, with gradual improvements expected as property market pressures ease [80][82] Policy and Fiscal Measures - **Fiscal Policy**: Modestly expansionary with an augmented fiscal deficit expected to widen by **0.5ppt** of GDP, focusing on technology localization and infrastructure [5][55] - **Monetary Policy**: Anticipated policy rate cuts of **10-20bps** and RRR reductions of **25-50bps** in 2026 to support fiscal measures [59] - **Public Spending**: Shift towards public services with growth in public consumption expected to reach **5.3%** in 2026 and **5.5%** in 2027 [25][26] Investment Trends - **Investment Growth**: Real gross fixed capital formation growth projected to remain soft at **2.4%** in 2026 and **2.2%** in 2027, influenced by anti-involution policies and local government financing constraints [31][32] - **Manufacturing Investment**: Expected to grow at low single digits due to overcapacity and deflationary pressures [33][36] - **Property Sector**: Continues to face significant challenges with high inventory levels and weak demand, leading to a contraction in property investment [35][41] Consumption Patterns - **Household Consumption**: Expected to slow to **4.2%** in 2026, with a rebound to **4.4%** in 2027 as labor market conditions improve [15][19] - **Social Welfare Spending**: Gradual increases in social welfare spending anticipated, focusing on education, healthcare, and elder care [18][25] Risks and Challenges - **Economic Risks**: Potential for renewed trade tensions and a US recession could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances and deflationary pressures [6] - **Implementation Challenges**: Central government support for housing may face practical challenges in execution [5][56] Global Context - **Export Dynamics**: Net exports expected to contribute **1.3ppt** to growth in both 2026 and 2027, despite a slight moderation in export growth due to earlier front-loading effects [41][42] - **Global Demand**: Stable global growth projected at **3.1%** in 2026 and **3.3%** in 2027, supporting China's export resilience [43] AI and Technology Investment - **AI-Driven Growth**: Anticipated capex boom in AI-related sectors expected to offset property market drag by **0.2-0.3ppt** of real GDP in 2026-27 [47][48] Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese economy in 2026 reflects a cautious approach to growth, with a focus on gradual rebalancing and addressing deflationary pressures while navigating global uncertainties and domestic challenges [68][79]

Industry Trend - German exporters are increasing investments in new projects in China, despite government warnings [1] - These investments are deepening the economic ties between German exporters and China [1]

Trade Performance - Thailand's exports experienced the most significant increase in three years during September [1] - The export growth occurred despite tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump [1]

Export Performance - China's exports reached $2.5 trillion through August, the highest ever for any country [1] - This export surge is driven by rising global demand [1] - A weaker yuan and domestic deflation are making Chinese exports cheaper [2] Geopolitical Implications - China's strong export performance strengthens its position in trade talks with the U.S [2] - Some governments are hesitant to push back against China due to a desire to maintain good relations and avoid a trade war [3] Impact on Foreign Firms - The influx of Chinese goods is putting pressure on foreign companies [2] - The U.S. tariffs of 50% or more on Chinese goods have not stopped China's export growth [1] Domestic Economic Impact - Strong exports are boosting China's economic growth amidst domestic challenges [1]