10月20日周一，阿根廷比索兑美元汇率下跌近1%，创下历史最低记录，逼近该国于4月份设定的交易区间底 部。这一跌势发生在美国财政部自10月9日以来已多次入市购买比索，以及两国宣布建立200亿美元货币互换额 度之后。 尽管美国财政部几度出手干预，但阿根廷比索的跌势并未停止，反而创下历史新低。 市场动荡的核心驱动力，是投资者对10月26日关键中期立法选举结果的深切忧虑。分析人士指出，由美国财政 部长贝森特主导的支持措施，未能平息阿根廷投资者为对冲选举不利结果而大量买入美元的需求。 美国干预效果不佳 贝森特本月早些时候在一次电视采访中表示，比索"被低估了"，他打算"低买高卖"。 据华尔街见闻文章，美国方面甚至在考虑通过与国际银行的私人安排，将最初200亿美元的互换额度救援计划规 模扩大一倍至400亿美元。 然而，阿根廷市场对本币比索的信心已然崩溃。投资者和普通民众正大规模地将比索兑换成美元，押注比索在 选举后将大幅贬值。 选举不确定性压倒外部支持 而市场的动荡始于上月，当时阿根廷总统米莱政党在关键的地方选举中遭遇失败。 如今，投资者的目光紧盯即将到来的中期选举，担心米莱可能无法获得足够的支持来推行其改革议程。这种政 ...

CoreDesignKEY/iStock via Getty Images By Dr. Mark Shore and Michael Copeland At a Glance While the skew ratio can suggest potential market direction, convexity is essential for assessing uncertainty and the cost of risk in out-of-the-money options. Comprehensive measures of implied volatility across various financial instruments are derived from the CME Group Volatility Index (CVOL) Markets rarely move in a straight line, and the stories behind their fluctuations are often far more complex than a simple ...

货币政策差异持续影响两国货币相对强弱。美联储在通胀趋缓、经济增长放缓的背景下，市场普遍预期 未来几个月可能保持温和的货币宽松态度，以防经济进一步下行。相对而言，日本央行仍维持超低利率 环境，政策调整节奏较为谨慎。两国利率差的变化直接影响资本流向，进而对美元兑日元汇率形成方向 性作用。 经济数据方面，美国通胀与就业报告成为市场主要观察指标。若数据表现疲软，可能进一步强化市场对 降息的预期，从而削弱美元短期支撑。日本方面，经济复苏节奏仍属温和，通胀水平尚未出现持续上行 的迹象，因此日本央行短期内大概率不会采取激进的政策调整。 近期外汇市场波动加剧，美元兑日元汇率在高位区域出现反复震荡。市场关注焦点集中在避险情绪变 化、货币政策差异与宏观经济预期的多重影响，这些因素共同塑造了汇率的短期与中期走势。 避险情绪仍是推动资金流向的重要力量。当全球市场出现不确定性或风险事件增加时，部分投资者倾向 于减持风险资产、增持避险货币。日元作为传统避险资产之一，在风险偏好下降的阶段往往获得支撑， 从而对美元形成一定压力。 从技术角度观察，美元兑日元在高位区域多次遇阻，显示上行动能有所减弱。若汇价跌破关键支撑区 间，可能引发进一步调整 ...

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| 11 20 22 111 | | --- | | CAN CONTRACTOR COLLECTION COLLEGION | | and the first the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first of the first and | | | | 一周变化 | 1.49% | 2.22% | 1.63% | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一月变化 | 2.79% | 1.90% | 8.25% | | | | | 一年变化 | -2.94% | 9.47% | 17.39% | | | | | 信用债指数 | | | | | | | | | 美国投资级信 | 欧元区投资级 | 新兴经济体投 资级信用债指 | 美国高收益信 | 欧元区高收益 | 新兴经济体高 收益信用债指 | | | 用债指数 | 信用债指数 | | 用债指 ...

Currency Market Overview - The Japanese yen is experiencing a significant decline, currently at 153.12 per U.S. dollar, marking a nearly 4% drop for the week, the largest since early October last year [1][10] - Concerns are rising that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates again this year, particularly following comments from potential future Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi [2][10] - Traders are pricing in a 45% chance of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan in December, with a full 25 basis point hike expected in March [5][10] Euro and Political Turmoil in France - The euro is trading at $1.15635, close to two-month lows, and is on track for a 1.5% weekly drop, the sharpest decline in 11 months due to political instability in France [6][10] - French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking his sixth prime minister in under two years, complicating efforts to pass a budget amid a significant deficit [6][7][10] - The political paralysis in France has led to increased volatility in FX markets as traders adjust their positions based on central bank expectations and political risks [7][10] U.S. Dollar Performance - The U.S. dollar index is at 99.4, near a two-month high, and is on course for a 1.7% gain, the largest increase in a year [7][10] - Market sentiment is mixed regarding the dollar's ability to surpass the 100 level in the index, with skepticism about sustained upward movement [8][10] - Traders are anticipating a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with the likelihood of an additional cut in December decreasing to 80% [8][10] Other Currencies - The Australian dollar is slightly up at $0.6563, while the British pound is at $1.33044, close to its two-month low [8][10] - The New Zealand dollar is at $0.57475, near a six-month low after a 50 basis point rate cut by its central bank, indicating concerns about the economy [9][10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Triennial Central Bank Survey indicates a significant increase in trading activity in FX and OTC interest rate derivatives markets, with FX trading reaching $9.6 trillion per day, up 28% from 2022, and OTC interest rate derivatives increasing 59% to $7.9 trillion daily [1][2]. FX Market Overview - The US dollar remains the most-traded currency, involved in 89% of all FX trades, followed by the euro at 28.9% and the Japanese yen at 16.8%. The share of sterling decreased to 10.2% [3]. - FX swaps are the most traded instrument, with average daily turnover rising to $4 trillion, a 5% increase from April 2022. FX spot trading increased by 42%, while outright forwards rose by 60%, with their shares in global turnover reaching 31% and 19% respectively [3]. OTC Interest Rate Derivatives - Average daily turnover of euro-denominated contracts nearly doubled to $3.0 trillion, accounting for 38% of the global total, while US dollar contracts increased by 7% to $2.4 trillion, leading to a decline in the international share of US dollar contracts to 31% [4]. - In contrast, the market for exchange-traded derivatives shows US dollar contracts holding 65% of global turnover, with significant increases in turnover for sterling and Japanese yen derivatives, surging by 179% and 684% respectively [5]. Trading Centers - FX trading remains concentrated in major financial centers, with the UK, US, Singapore, and Hong Kong SAR accounting for 75% of overall foreign exchange trading [5]. - The UK is the most important FX trading location, maintaining a 38% share of total turnover, while for interest rate derivatives, the UK and US together hold 73% of the market [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is likely to weaken the dollar further, as highlighted by top forex forecasting institutions [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The political deadlock in Washington has delayed the release of key economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the monthly non-farm payroll report [1][3]. - In the absence of economic data, the statements from monetary policymakers will become crucial for traders assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [3][4]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The dollar index has declined nearly 10% this year, and further depreciation is expected [1]. - Prestige Economics' Jason Schenker predicts that the euro-to-dollar exchange rate will rise from 1.17 to 1.19 by year-end, while the dollar-to-yen rate will drop from 147 to 145 [4]. - Once the government shutdown is resolved, there is potential for a dollar rebound, but the overall trend suggests continued weakness into next year [4]. Group 3: Global Currency Reserves - The share of the dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves has fallen to its lowest level since 1995, with the IMF reporting a drop to 56.3% during the April to June period [4]. - This represents a decline of nearly 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter, marking a 30-year low [4].

SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea's president vowed to open its currency market for around-the-clock trading, giving easier access to foreign investors as the country seeks to boost the domestic stock market and as stalled U.S. trade talks weigh on the won. "There is quite a time limit in the currency trading market, but we plan to scrap nearly all of it," President Lee Jae Myung said on Thursday at an investor event in New York, according to a media pool report. Lee said the government would also address i ...

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