Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting stance of the Federal Reserve from a hawkish to a dovish approach, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact the foreign exchange market and create opportunities for non-USD currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a high interest rate environment aimed at controlling inflation to signaling potential interest rate cuts, with futures markets indicating nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and possibly two 25 basis point cuts within the year [2][5]. - The shift from hawkish to dovish policy is expected to weaken the dollar's high-interest rate advantage, leading to downward pressure on its value [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Non-USD Currencies - Major non-USD currencies such as the Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen are gaining momentum against the dollar as the latter's appeal diminishes [3][4]. - Emerging market currencies are experiencing relief as financing pressures ease alongside the weakening dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in their exchange rates [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Strategy 1 involves trend-following by focusing on long positions in major non-USD currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with specific technical levels identified for entry and exit [5][6]. - Strategy 2 suggests a carry trade approach, where traders go long on high-yield currencies (e.g., Mexican Peso, New Zealand Dollar) while shorting currencies expected to face rate cuts [7]. - Strategy 3 emphasizes volatility trading around key economic data releases and Federal Reserve announcements, which are likely to cause significant price movements [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risk Management - The article highlights that a weak dollar does not guarantee a linear decline, as market corrections and geopolitical events may lead to temporary rebounds [11]. - It stresses the importance of independent assessments of currency strength based on central bank policies and economic fundamentals, along with strict risk management practices [11].

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market is a large and highly liquid financial market that attracts numerous investors, making the understanding and application of suitable trading strategies crucial for success [1] Fundamental Analysis Strategy - Fundamental analysis focuses on macroeconomic data, political situations, and monetary policies to assess currency value and future trends. Key macroeconomic indicators include GDP growth rate, inflation rate, and unemployment rate, with strong GDP growth and low unemployment typically indicating a healthy economy that may lead to currency appreciation [2] - Monetary policy, including central bank interest rate decisions, is a critical factor, as higher interest rates often attract more capital inflow, boosting currency value. Political stability also significantly impacts exchange rates, with political turmoil potentially driving funds toward more stable currencies [2] Technical Analysis Strategy - Technical analysis relies on historical exchange rate and volume data, using various indicators and chart patterns to predict future price movements. It posits that market prices reflect all relevant information and that historical trends can indicate future price behavior [3] - Common technical indicators include moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands. Moving averages help identify market trends, while RSI indicates market overbought or oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands assist in determining market volatility [3] Trend Following Strategy - Trend following is a common strategy in forex trading, focusing on trading in the direction of established market trends, which can be upward, downward, or sideways. Traders buy currency pairs when an upward trend is confirmed and sell when a downward trend is established [4] - Methods for identifying trends include observing moving average crossovers, where a short-term moving average crossing above a long-term moving average signals a potential upward trend, and vice versa for downward trends [4] Arbitrage Trading Strategy - Arbitrage trading exploits interest rate differentials and exchange rate fluctuations by borrowing in low-interest currencies and investing in high-interest currencies to earn interest rate spreads. The theory of interest rate parity suggests that without arbitrage opportunities, the difference in interest rates should equal the forward exchange rate premium or discount [5] - However, real market conditions often disrupt this equilibrium, creating arbitrage opportunities, though exchange rate fluctuations can negate interest gains or lead to losses [5] Swing Trading Strategy - Swing trading aims to capture profits from short-term market fluctuations rather than pursuing long-term trends. Traders use technical analysis to identify support and resistance levels, buying near support and selling near resistance [6] - Support levels are price points where buying pressure halts a decline, while resistance levels are where selling pressure stops a rise. Swing trading requires close market monitoring and timely strategy adjustments [6] Financial Media Role - Financial media, such as Financial界, plays a vital role in providing comprehensive, accurate, and timely financial information and knowledge to investors, covering various financial markets and macroeconomic conditions [7]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of monetary policies from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan on currency markets, highlighting the systemic integration of economic indicators, policy expectations, market sentiment, and risk management [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trading Strategies - Interest rates and monetary policy directly influence capital flows, with Fed rate hikes typically strengthening the USD while ECB rate cuts weaken the EUR [2]. - A case study shows that after the Fed's rate cut in September 2024, the USD index fell by 1.2%, and the EUR/USD pair broke the 1.08 resistance level [3]. - Strategies include pre-positioning based on implied probabilities from interest rate futures and executing trades shortly after policy announcements [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Growth Data - High inflation leads to increased expectations for rate hikes, resulting in short-term currency strength, but persistent high inflation can devalue currency in the long term [6][7]. - A strategy involves trading on data divergence, such as going long on JPY when GDP is strong but employment is weak [8]. - Cross-market validation suggests going long on AUD/CAD when commodity prices rise [9]. Group 4: Employment and Consumption Indicators - Non-farm payroll (NFP) data exceeding expectations can cause USD volatility, but the quality of the data must be assessed [10]. - Retail sales data reflects domestic demand strength, with positive surprises leading to long positions in local currencies [11]. Group 5: Macro Trading Strategy Dimensions - In recovery phases, commodity currencies like AUD and CAD benefit, exemplified by AUD/USD trades during China's stimulus policies [12]. - In overheating phases, high-yield currencies like USD and BRL are favored, with carry trades being a typical strategy [12]. - In recession phases, safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF are preferred, with strategies such as selling EUR/JPY [13]. Group 6: Policy Expectation Divergence Trading - Analyzing central bank "dot plots" helps capture expectation differences, as seen with the unexpected adjustment of Japan's YCC policy leading to a 4% drop in USD/JPY [15]. - Utilizing policy transmission lags can inform trading decisions, such as going long on local currencies early in a rate hike cycle and reversing positions later [15]. Group 7: Geopolitical and Cross-Market Linkages - Safe-haven trades like USD/JPY are recommended during geopolitical conflicts, as seen during the Middle East crisis in 2025 [16]. - The relationship between commodity prices and currencies suggests increasing short positions in USD/CAD when oil prices exceed $80 per barrel [16]. Group 8: Technical and Fundamental Resonance - Key technical levels, such as EUR/USD support at 1.07, combined with strong PMI data, can enhance bullish probabilities [17]. - Sentiment indicators, like extreme net short positions in CFTC reports, can signal opportunities for contrarian trades [17]. Group 9: Risk Control in Macro Trading - Managing leverage and position sizes is crucial, especially during high volatility events, with recommendations to limit exposure to 2% of account size on non-farm payroll days [18]. - Diversifying currency pairs to avoid high correlation is advised, such as pairing USD/JPY with other currencies to hedge risks [18]. Group 10: Practical Case Study - Anticipating the Fed's rate cut cycle in 2025, positions were established based on CPI trends, leading to a 70% probability of rate cuts [18]. - Following the rate cut announcement, the USD index dropped 1%, prompting further positioning in EUR/USD [19]. - The exit strategy involved taking profits as the ECB signaled potential follow-up rate cuts [20]. Group 11: Macro Trading Skill Development - Understanding the impact of data revisions, such as significant adjustments in NFP figures, can enhance trading strategies [21]. - Differentiating between hawkish and dovish monetary policy signals is essential for accurate market predictions [22]. - Monitoring cross-market indicators, like inverted yield curves, can provide early warnings for economic downturns [23]. - The essence of macro trading lies in exploiting expectation differences, necessitating a framework that integrates data, policy, and sentiment [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) is facing new considerations regarding its monetary policy path, particularly with the approaching expected interest rate cuts in June [1] - Recent economic data suggests that the rationale for the ECB to adopt a "pause after rate cuts" strategy is strengthening, while maintaining expectations for continued easing within the year [1] - The report includes a baseline scenario of two 25 basis point rate cuts in July and September, emphasizing the need to closely monitor the latest policy statements from ECB officials [1] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that if the euro to dollar price stabilizes above 1.1572, a light long position could be taken with a stop loss at 1.1520, targeting levels of 1.1650 and 1.1692 [2] - Conversely, if a rebound is blocked at 1.1572, a short position could be attempted with a stop loss at 1.1620, targeting 1.1450 and 1.1380, contingent on specific technical indicators [2] - In a range between 1.1380 and 1.1572, a strategy of buying high and selling low is suggested, with stop losses set at 30 points and targets of 50-80 points [2]