内容提要 2025年10月，银行间外汇市场交投总量平稳，外汇市场日均成交量环比持续上升；美元指数延续走强态势，人民币汇率升至年内新高后震荡回落；境内外汇 差逐步收敛并由负转正，即期发起方延续净买汇方向；期权波动率维持低位，人民币汇率预期整体稳定；长期限掉期点续创近三年以来新高；外币利率市场 美元流动性延续宽松。 即期市场机构发起方延续净买汇，月末转向净卖汇。美元走强带动机构逢低购汇意愿提升，截至20日，即期市场机构发起方日均净买汇17.35亿美元，其中 13日、17日发起方买汇力量明显增强，净买汇超40亿美元；随着中间价稳步调升带动人民币汇率连续走强，市场买卖压力逐步反转，月末转向净卖汇方向； 全月日均净买汇11.80亿美元。在交易行为上，10月市场羊群效应指数为61.89，较9月下降1.01点，低于近一年历史平均值62.65点水平。 四、期权波动率维持低位，人民币汇率预期整体稳定 10月人民币外汇期权交投平稳，日均成交52.33亿美元，环比下降9.07%。波动率方面，人民币对美元平价期权隐含波动率于低位窄幅整理。节后受中美贸易 冲突升级影响，人民币对美元1M ATM隐含波动率月初小幅回升至2.46%，随后回 ...

Core Insights - The essence of gold trading is not merely price speculation but a deeper contest of global confidence, where gold serves as a safe haven during economic uncertainty and may face selling pressure when confidence in the economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies is high [1] Group 1: Trading Philosophy - Successful trading requires maintaining rationality during market panic and exercising restraint during periods of greed, rather than merely predicting price movements [1] - A shift in trading mindset from seeking to predict every market movement to focusing on risk management and emotional control is crucial for achieving profitability [3][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The true barriers to entry in gold trading lie in the ability to exercise patience rather than in complex technical analysis [4] - The relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold is characterized by a negative correlation, where a strong dollar typically pressures gold prices, while a weak dollar supports them [6] - Real interest rates significantly impact gold prices; lower real rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to price increases, while higher real rates exert downward pressure [6] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Adhering to strict trading rules, such as limiting risk exposure to 2% of account funds and pausing trading after consecutive losses, can help avoid emotional trading pitfalls [5] - Observing market trends without rushing into trades can lead to better decision-making and reduced errors, emphasizing that long-term profitability is achieved by minimizing mistakes rather than maximizing opportunities [7] Group 4: Company Overview - Hong Kong First Gold, regulated by the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange Society, provides a transparent and secure trading environment for global investors, offering professional training and stable trading systems to support both novice and experienced traders [7]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China reported that the total turnover in the foreign exchange market (excluding foreign currency pairs) reached 26.87 trillion RMB (approximately 3.78 trillion USD) in September 2025 [1] Market Performance - The customer market turnover was 4.43 trillion RMB (approximately 0.62 trillion USD) [1] - The interbank market turnover was 22.44 trillion RMB (approximately 3.16 trillion USD) [1] - The spot market cumulative turnover was 9.87 trillion RMB (approximately 1.39 trillion USD) [1] - The derivatives market cumulative turnover was 17.00 trillion RMB (approximately 2.39 trillion USD) [1] Year-to-Date Performance - From January to September 2025, the cumulative turnover in the foreign exchange market was 230.10 trillion RMB (approximately 32.11 trillion USD) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season for major U.S. banks is expected to show strong performance driven by a recovery in investment banking and resilient economic conditions supporting consumer and commercial lending [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - JPMorgan is projected to see a more than 10% increase in earnings per share (EPS) for Q3, with investment banking revenues expected to grow in the low double digits [1]. - Bank of America anticipates nearly a 17% year-over-year increase in EPS, with investment banking revenues expected to rise by 10% to 15% [2]. - Citigroup's EPS is expected to surge by 26%, primarily driven by capital markets activities [2]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 31% increase in EPS, benefiting from a rebound in investment banking and trading [2]. - Morgan Stanley expects over an 11% increase in EPS, supported by its strengths in capital markets and wealth management [2]. - Wells Fargo's EPS is projected at 1.54, while other banks have specific EPS estimates as well [3]. Group 2: Investment Banking Activity - Investment banking activities have rebounded due to regulatory easing and expectations of further interest rate cuts, with JPMorgan describing the summer as one of its busiest merger seasons [4]. - As of mid-September, 49 merger deals were announced in Q3, up from 39 in Q2 and 32 in the same period last year, with a total global merger volume reaching $2.6 trillion, the highest since the pandemic peak in 2021 [4]. Group 3: Trading and Interest Income Outlook - Trading revenues are expected to grow, with analysts noting that Q3 typically sees lower trading activity, but 2025 appears to break this trend [6]. - Net interest income (NII) is anticipated to remain robust due to the resilient U.S. economy, with banks reporting that consumer financial conditions are stable [6]. - Concerns are emerging regarding potential increases in default rates among small businesses, despite the overall positive outlook for investment and commercial banking [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's commitment to global development and financial reforms, emphasizing the importance of creating a stable international environment and enhancing cooperation in various sectors, including finance and investment [5][6]. Group 1: Major Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) jointly issued an announcement to further support foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions [9]. - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity in the market [10]. - In August, China's foreign exchange market recorded a total transaction volume of 24.08 trillion yuan (approximately 3.38 trillion USD) [12]. - In August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China surged by 20.4% year-on-year, marking a significant rebound compared to a decline of 1.5% in the previous month [12][14]. Group 2: Financial System Reform - The PBOC's Governor highlighted the deepening of financial system reforms, which have positively impacted market confidence and stability, optimized resource allocation, and enhanced international competitiveness [7]. - The PBOC's recent meeting indicated a shift in monetary policy focus from "implementation" to "enforcement," reflecting a stronger commitment to economic stability and reasonable price levels [11]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Development - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is working to enhance the synergy between industrial, investment, fiscal, and financial policies to stimulate private investment and promote economic growth [8]. - The article notes that private investment is a crucial indicator of economic activity and has been supported by the government through improved business environments and opportunities for private enterprises [8].

Core Insights - United Overseas Bank (UOB) China has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Shenzhen Xinyuan Material Technology Co., Ltd. (Xinyuan Material) to enhance collaboration in green trade financing, cross-border fund management, and supply chain finance [1] Group 1: Partnership Details - The partnership aims to jointly promote the expansion of China's new materials and new energy industry into the ASEAN market [1] - UOB plans to provide green trade financing, foreign exchange transaction limits, and currency swap risk hedging tools for Xinyuan's production base in Malaysia [1]

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's foreign exchange market recorded a total transaction volume of 24.08 trillion yuan, indicating significant activity in both the customer and interbank markets [1] Group 1: Market Transactions - In August, the bank-to-customer market transactions amounted to 3.71 trillion yuan, while the interbank market transactions reached 20.37 trillion yuan [1] - The spot market saw a cumulative transaction of 9.16 trillion yuan, while the derivatives market accounted for 14.93 trillion yuan in cumulative transactions [1] - From January to August, the cumulative transaction volume in China's foreign exchange market totaled 203.23 trillion yuan [1]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China released the trading data for the foreign exchange market in August 2025, indicating a total transaction volume of 24.08 trillion RMB (approximately 3.38 trillion USD) [1] Market Overview - In August 2025, the customer market transactions amounted to 3.71 trillion RMB (approximately 0.52 trillion USD) [1] - The interbank market transactions reached 20.37 trillion RMB (approximately 2.86 trillion USD) [1] - The spot market recorded a cumulative transaction of 9.16 trillion RMB (approximately 1.28 trillion USD) [1] - The derivatives market had a cumulative transaction of 14.93 trillion RMB (approximately 2.09 trillion USD) [1] Year-to-Date Performance - From January to August 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in the foreign exchange market totaled 203.23 trillion RMB (approximately 28.33 trillion USD) [1]

Core Insights - Africa's FX and CFD market is transitioning towards a regulated and localized model, driven by frameworks in South Africa and Kenya that establish clearer operational guidelines for brokers [1][8] - The mobile-money infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa is crucial for facilitating deposits, withdrawals, and onboarding for traders, contributing significantly to GDP growth [2][8] Regulatory Anchors & Market Evolution - Kenya's regulations require local licensing for online brokers, enhancing client fund protections and establishing leverage and disclosure rules [8] - South Africa's ODP regime sets authorization criteria for OTC derivatives providers, strengthening conduct and prudential expectations [8] - Nigeria is moving towards formalizing online FX platforms, indicating a trend towards increased regulation [8] Mobile Money & Market Access: Hard Data - Mobile money's contribution to GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa rose from approximately US$150 billion in 2022 to about US$190 billion in 2023 [8] - The transaction value of mobile money in Africa increased by around 15% year-on-year to about US$1.1 trillion in 2024, while global transaction value reached approximately US$1.68 trillion, growing by 16% year-on-year [8] Challenges & Growth Levers - Payment and onboarding friction remains a challenge, particularly for cross-border brokers due to regulatory constraints and compliance issues [7] - Brokers are encouraged to integrate local payment systems and design platforms for low-data environments to meet domestic KYC and reconciliation needs [5][13] Product Signals & Market Demand - There is a rising demand for diversified products, with brokers like Deriv offering synthetic indices in multiple African markets [8] - Financial literacy and risk awareness are becoming increasingly important in regulated markets, influencing broker strategies for client education [8] The Broker Perspective - Trust is identified as a critical factor for traders in Africa, who seek reliable and transparent platforms [10] - Operating under local licenses enhances accountability and fosters long-term relationships with traders [11][12] Path Forward: What's Realistic & What to Watch - The next 1-3 years may see further regulatory clarity in West and Central Africa, increased integration of mobile money, and a broader range of products offered by brokers [17] - The evolution of leverage and client fund policies in markets lacking dedicated CFD regulations will be crucial to monitor [17]

Group 1 - In July, China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade reached 44,022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% [1] - Goods trade exports amounted to 22,076 billion yuan, imports were 15,484 billion yuan, resulting in a surplus of 6,593 billion yuan; service trade exports were 2,651 billion yuan, imports were 3,811 billion yuan, leading to a deficit of 1,160 billion yuan [1] - The main components of service trade included transportation services with a total of 1,805 billion yuan, travel services at 1,793 billion yuan, other commercial services at 1,078 billion yuan, and telecommunications, computer, and information services at 715 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In dollar terms, China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade in July was 3,459 billion USD for exports and 2,699 billion USD for imports, resulting in a surplus of 760 billion USD [1] - In July, the total turnover of China's foreign exchange market (excluding foreign currency markets) was 28.28 trillion yuan (equivalent to 3.96 trillion USD) [1] - From January to July, the cumulative turnover of China's foreign exchange market reached 179.15 trillion yuan (equivalent to 24.96 trillion USD) [2]