资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 泰国央行：正在收紧与黄金相关及无关的外汇交易。监管机构正考虑制定规则，以应对对泰铢构成压力 的外汇交易。泰铢的升值与美元走弱和金价上涨是相符的。 ...

1月7日，在撰写外汇教育文章时，业内常有一种困惑，即为什么如此多的交易者难以实现持续盈利。 Radex Markets瑞德克斯认为，讽刺的是，大多数人懂得并不少，但真正的问题在于他们不懂那些至关 重要的核心逻辑。在交易领域磨爬滚打14年后，获利应当成为一种本能，这并非依靠神奇指标或秘密策 略，而是源于理解了"大钱"是如何交易的。这是大多数散户交易者，尤其是新手最容易误入歧途的地 方。 一组统计数据应当让所有投资者警醒：银行交易员仅占外汇交易者的 5%，却控制着约 92% 的总交易 量，而剩下的 95% 则是投机者。如果你不理解这 5% 的群体如何运作，那么你的操作本质上只是 在"猜"。Radex Markets瑞德克斯认为，关于机构交易员最大的误区是认为他们整天在疯狂敲击买卖按钮 以赚取微利，实际上他们大部分活动只是在为客户执行订单，即所谓的"清理流量"，几乎从不为自营盘 频繁操作。 当涉及到银行自营交易这种真正决定奖金多寡的核心业务时，银行交易员通常每周仅进行两到三笔交 易。Radex Markets瑞德克斯表示，他们绝不会草率行事，更不会死盯五分钟图表进行"剥头皮"。他们是 有条不紊且高度挑剔的，只有在技 ...

华赢集团AlloyX Group（纳斯达克代码：AXG）今日宣布，公司已完成对合规机构GELLO FINANCE LTD.的收购，正式持有加拿大货币服务业务（MSB）牌照。 此举意味着AXG已完成了进入加拿大市场 的合规准入工作，亦是集团全球化版图中至关重要的一块拼图。 持有该牌照后，AXG即纳入了加拿大 金融交易和报告分析中心（FINTRAC）的监管框架。 这使得公司在监管层面具备了在加拿大开展外汇 交易、跨境汇款及支付服务等核心业务的法定权限。 MSB牌照的落地，确认了AXG在多国高标准监管 下的合规运营能力，进一步拓宽了其在全球数字金融领域的发展机遇。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the foreign exchange market, particularly the performance of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) and other currencies during the year-end period of 2025. Core Insights and Arguments - The US Dollar Index stabilized around 98, with market liquidity significantly weakened during the Christmas week. Despite the US Q3 GDP data exceeding expectations, concerns about the labor market persist, supporting high expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2]. - Non-USD currencies experienced gains, with the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Norwegian Krone, and Canadian Dollar appreciating by 1.57%, 1.37%, 1.34%, and 0.95% respectively. The British Pound rose by 0.88%, while the Euro saw a modest increase of 0.5% [1][2]. - The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.75% following a dovish rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December [1]. - The offshore Yuan broke the 7.0 mark, indicating a strong appreciation trend, influenced by a weak USD and increased year-end settlement demand [4][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report highlights that the appreciation of the Yuan is supported by seasonal factors, but the pace of appreciation is limited by the central bank's policies aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate [5][6]. - The central bank's recent adjustments to the midpoint exchange rate and the highest recorded scale of counter-cyclical factor adjustments (301 pips) indicate a strong effort to manage the Yuan's appreciation rate [5]. - The report anticipates that after a short-term strong performance, the Yuan's appreciation rate may flatten out, with a potential stabilization around the 7.0 level in early 2026 [6]. - Upcoming economic data releases from both the US and China, including the FOMC minutes and China's PMI, are expected to influence market sentiment and the Yuan's trajectory [6]. Market Predictions - The forecast for the CNY/USD exchange rate for the upcoming week is set between 7.00 and 7.03, indicating continued appreciation [3]. - The Euro/USD exchange rate is predicted to range between 1.1750 and 1.1840, with potential for volatility based on economic performance and central bank policies [7][8]. Conclusion - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable as liquidity remains low during the holiday season. The focus will be on the Yuan's performance and the effectiveness of the central bank's stabilization policies as the year concludes [2][6].

（来源：千龙网） 记者12月26日从中国人民银行了解到，《银行间外汇市场管理规定》发布，自2026年2月1日起施行，以 此规范和发展外汇市场，扩大高水平对外开放。 维护外汇市场稳健运行，规范银行间外汇市场基础设施、境内外金融机构、货币经纪公司、金融信息服 务商权利和义务，要求遵循公开、公平、公正和诚实信用原则，保护市场参与者合法权益。 推动银行间外汇市场高质量发展，支持外汇市场基础设施根据市场需求不断丰富交易和清算品种、币 种、方式等，便利金融机构为客户提供外汇服务。 新规主要内容包括： 加强银行间外汇市场监管，从交易场所、资质条件、报价规范、交易清算规则、信息管理、数据服务、 自律管理等领域明确相应要求，实现业务监管全覆盖。 ...

2025年1-11月，中国外汇市场累计成交276.41万亿元人民币(等值38.65万亿美元)。 本文编选自"国家外汇管理局官网"，智通财经编辑：徐文强。 智通财经APP获悉，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，2025年11月，中国外汇市场(不含外币对市场，下 同)总计成交24.34万亿元人民币(等值3.44万亿美元)。其中，银行对客户市场成交3.62万亿元人民币(等 值0.51万亿美元)，银行间市场成交20.72万亿元人民币(等值2.92万亿美元)；即期市场累计成交8.82万亿 元人民币(等值1.24万亿美元)，衍生品市场累计成交15.52万亿元人民币(等值2.19万亿美元)。 ...

Summary of G10 FX Year Ahead 2026 Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the G10 foreign exchange (FX) market outlook for 2026, particularly the performance of the US dollar (USD) against other major currencies such as the Japanese yen (JPY), Australian dollar (AUD), euro (EUR), and British pound (GBP) [1][2][3][4][5][6][8]. Key Points and Arguments USD Outlook - Near-term bearishness on USD has been reduced, with a focus on tactical long positions against JPY and AUD into Q1 2026, supported by constructive price action and technical indicators [1][20]. - A bullish bias for USD is maintained into 2026, with expectations for USD to strengthen against EUR, GBP, AUD, and ZAR [4][20][77]. - The forecast for EUR/USD has been revised down to 1.22 from 1.25 for the end of 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook despite potential for growth convergence and stimulus in Europe and China [2][16][20]. Currency Positioning - Current FX positioning indicates a shift to neutral for USD, with corporates and officials supporting USD against EUR, while the market is slightly short USD compared to earlier in the year [3][55][59]. - The market is long on EUR and AUD, while being short on NZD and CAD, which supports a bullish call on GBP and caution on AUD and JPY [55][59]. Technical Analysis - The DXY (US dollar index) is observed to potentially form a double bottom pattern, suggesting further upside into 2026, with a target range of 103.20 to 104.50 [74][80]. - A head and shoulders top pattern is noted for AUD/USD, indicating potential downside to around 0.6218 by Q1 2026 [90]. Economic Factors - The burden of proof for near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is placed on upcoming US economic data, with expectations that the Fed will remain on hold until June 2026 [17][20]. - Structural outflows from Japan and fiscal risks are highlighted as ongoing concerns for JPY, while GBP faces headwinds from fiscal risks and rate cuts [20][38]. Investment Strategies - Tactical trades recommended include shorting JPY against USD and EUR, and buying EUR/USD digital calls to express a bullish view on EUR [40][46]. - A strategy to sell EUR/GBP skew is suggested, capitalizing on the current elevated fiscal risk premium ahead of the UK budget [49][50]. Market Dynamics - The correlation between USD and equities is expected to remain positive, with USD often weakening during equity sell-offs, indicating a complex relationship between the two [27][28]. - The impact of AI on USD remains uncertain, with potential for both positive and negative effects on hiring and productivity [32]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments, particularly in Europe and China, which could significantly influence USD performance in the latter half of 2026 [31][32]. - The potential for renewed USD weakness in 2026 is acknowledged, particularly if the Fed adopts a dovish stance and if fiscal stimulus in Europe and China materializes [31][38]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic recommendations from the G10 FX Year Ahead 2026 conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and positioning in the FX market.

2025年1至10月份，中国外汇市场累计成交252.07万亿元人民币（等值35.21万亿美元）。 责任编辑：袁浩 本报讯 记者马玲报道 国家外汇管理局11月28日发布的统计数据显示，2025年10月，中国外汇市场 （不含外币对市场，下同）总计成交21.97万亿元人民币（等值3.10万亿美元）。其中，银行对客户市场 成交3.57万亿元人民币（等值0.50万亿美元），银行间市场成交18.40万亿元人民币（等值2.59万亿美 元）；即期市场累计成交8.26万亿元人民币（等值1.16万亿美元），衍生品市场累计成交13.71万亿元人 民币（等值1.93万亿美元）。 ...

Core Insights - The total foreign exchange market turnover in China for October reached 21.97 trillion yuan, with a cumulative turnover of 252.07 trillion yuan from January to October this year [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market - In October, China's foreign exchange market recorded a total turnover of 21.97 trillion yuan [1] - From January to October, the cumulative turnover of the foreign exchange market in China was 252.07 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: International Balance of Payments - In October, the scale of imports and exports of goods and services in China's international balance of payments was 42,858 billion yuan [3] - The trade surplus for goods was 6,413 billion yuan, while the trade deficit for services was 797 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The total turnover of China's foreign exchange market reached 21.97 trillion RMB (approximately 3.10 trillion USD) in October 2025 [1] - The customer market turnover was 3.57 trillion RMB (approximately 0.50 trillion USD), while the interbank market turnover was 18.40 trillion RMB (approximately 2.59 trillion USD) [1] - The cumulative turnover for the foreign exchange market from January to October 2025 was 252.07 trillion RMB (approximately 35.21 trillion USD) [1] Market Breakdown - Spot market cumulative turnover was 8.26 trillion RMB (approximately 1.16 trillion USD) [1] - Derivatives market cumulative turnover was 13.71 trillion RMB (approximately 1.93 trillion USD) [1]