11 December 2025 | 4:17AM HKT Economics Research China: November activity data preview: Weaker retail sales, still-depressed investment, and slightly better industrial production Bottom line: November activity data are scheduled for release next Monday (15 December). We expect industrial production (IP) growth to edge up to 5.1% yoy in November from 4.9% yoy in October, as the notable improvement in export growth may more than offset slowing auto output growth and slightly widening year-on-year contraction ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on various sectors including **property**, **manufacturing**, **infrastructure**, and **retail**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Trends**: - October growth showed a significant slowdown across various sectors, with **fixed asset investment (FAI)** declining by **11.2% YoY** in October, worsening from **-6.8%** previously [4][88]. - The **property sector** experienced a notable contraction, with property sales growth dropping to **-18.8% YoY** in October, compared to **-10.5%** in September [74]. - **Industrial production (IP)** growth slowed to **4.9% YoY** in October, down from **6.5%** in September, indicating a broader economic deceleration [98]. 2. **Sector-Specific Performance**: - **Manufacturing** investment fell by **6.7% YoY**, while **infrastructure investment** declined by **12.1% YoY** [88]. - Retail sales growth decreased to **2.9% YoY** in October, reflecting a high base effect from previous trade-in subsidies [112]. 3. **Future Economic Outlook**: - GDP growth is expected to decelerate to around **4.2% YoY** in Q4 2025, with a full-year average of **4.9%** for 2025, aligning with the government's target of "around 5%" [4][6]. - The property downturn is anticipated to persist, with expectations of a **5-10% decline** in property sales and new starts in 2026, and a smaller contraction in 2027 [74]. 4. **Policy Measures**: - Modest policy easing is underway, including **RMB 500 billion** from special financial tools and additional local government bond quotas to stabilize economic activity [5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBC) is expected to cut policy rates by **20bps** by the end of 2026, with potential mortgage rate cuts of **30-40bps** [5]. 5. **Inflation and Credit Conditions**: - October's **CPI** increased to **0.2% YoY**, while **PPI** narrowed its decline to **-2.1% YoY** [127]. - Credit growth has softened, with new bank loans recorded at **RMB 220 billion** in October, significantly lower than the previous year [142]. Other Important Insights - The **high-frequency data** indicates continued weakness in property activities, with a **33% YoY** decline in property sales in early November [40]. - The **consumer confidence index** has shown slight recovery but remains below pre-COVID levels, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment [112]. - The **accumulated household excess savings** remain high, indicating a cautious outlook on spending [106]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and expectations for the Chinese economy moving forward.

Core Insights - Wage volatility and paycheck-to-paycheck pressures persist, indicating continued consumer flexibility but limited financial headroom [1][10] - Retail sales in September showed a modest increase, with total sales at $733.3 billion, up 0.2% month-over-month and 4.3% year-over-year, but missed consensus estimates [4][5] - Discretionary spending categories are experiencing weakness, with notable declines in motor vehicles and parts (-0.3%), electronics and appliances (-0.5%), and clothing and accessories (-0.7%) [5][6] Retail Performance - Retail sales data indicates a pullback in discretionary categories related to home and leisure, with sporting goods and hobby stores down 2.5% in September [6] - Essential and value-oriented retail channels are seeing growth, with health and personal care stores up 1.1% and miscellaneous store retailers up 2.9% [7] - Nonstore retailer sales increased 6% year-over-year, but showed a decline of 0.7% month-over-month in September, suggesting a potential wait for promotions [8] Consumer Behavior - The Wage to Wallet Index indicates a 0.81% drop in hourly wages for labor economy workers in October, equating to a loss of approximately $14 billion in annualized spending power [10] - Many consumers are trapped in narrow liquidity bands, relying on short-term credit and making trade-offs among bills, while adapting spending towards value channels [11] - Retailers and payment firms should not assume continued digital commerce growth, as consumer spending remains cautious despite resilience [12] Payment Trends - The importance of value, convenience, and flexibility in payment product design is increasing, with consumers gravitating towards buy now, pay later (BNPL) options and flexible financing [13] - Stakeholders should anticipate uneven cash flows and higher credit use, emphasizing the need for real-time insights into spending patterns [13]

Core Viewpoint - Euro zone retail sales unexpectedly declined in September, which poses challenges to the anticipated consumption-led recovery in the region [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The data from Eurostat revealed a drop in retail sales, countering other mildly positive economic news from the Euro zone [1]

Core Insights - Retail sales volumes in September increased unexpectedly by 0.5% month-on-month, driven by strong performance in tech stores and heightened demand for gold [1] Group 1 - The increase in retail sales volumes indicates a positive trend in consumer spending [1] - Tech stores played a significant role in boosting sales, suggesting a robust demand for technology products [1] - The demand for gold also contributed to the rise in retail sales, reflecting consumer interest in precious metals [1]

UK retail sales unexpectedly grew for a fourth straight month, providing a glimmer of hope after recent data pointed to a cooling economy https://t.co/faemRVQjDS ...

Group 1 - U.S. retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts likely posted further gains in September [1] - The rise in retail sales probably reflected higher prices [1]

Retail Sales Performance - UK retail sales experienced stronger than expected growth in August [1] - The growth rounded off a summer of mild growth for the retail sector [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically macroeconomic indicators such as industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI), and retail sales for August 2023 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production (IP) Forecast**: - Expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year (yoy) in August, up from 5.7% yoy in July, driven by improved manufacturing PMIs and a significant increase in steel production and demand [5][6]. - The forecast indicates a month-over-month annualized growth of 6.9% for August, contrasting with a decline of 3.2% in July [5]. 2. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) Outlook**: - Anticipated to remain sluggish with a forecast of -3.0% yoy in August, an improvement from -5.2% yoy in July [6]. - Factors contributing to this sluggishness include adverse weather conditions and local restrictions on construction activities due to the military parade on September 3 [6]. 3. **Retail Sales Projection**: - Expected to decline to 3.2% yoy in August from 3.7% yoy in July, influenced by falling automobile sales growth (4.6% in August from 7.3% in July) and a slowdown in home appliance sales [6]. - The decline is attributed to the diminishing effectiveness of the consumer goods trade-in program and increased funding shortages [6]. 4. **Market Consensus Comparison**: - The forecasts for IP are above market consensus (6.2% vs. 5.6% yoy), while those for FAI and retail sales are below consensus expectations [6]. Additional Important Insights - The macro data for August appears mixed, with improvements in official and unofficial PMIs, but slower growth in exports and imports [2]. - Year-on-year PPI deflation has eased due to "anti-involution" policies aimed at curbing price competition, while CPI inflation has turned negative due to deeper food deflation [2]. - High-frequency trackers indicate stable growth momentum in August compared to July, despite sectoral divergences [2]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated economic indicators for China in August 2023.

Economic Data Overview - U.S. Retail Sales for July increased by 0.5%, down from a revised 0.9% in June, which was the second-highest level of the year [2] - Excluding auto sales, Retail Sales were also in line with estimates at +0.3%, a decrease from the upwardly revised +0.8% in June [2][3] - Core Retail Sales (Control print) for July was +0.5%, down from the revised +0.8% in June, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3] Import and Export Prices - July Import Prices rose by 0.4%, significantly above the consensus estimate of 0.0%, marking the highest level since April 2024 [4] - Year-over-year, Import Prices have remained at -0.2% for three consecutive months [4] - Exports for July increased by only 0.1%, down from +0.5% in June, with year-over-year growth decreasing from +2.6% to +2.2% [5] Trade Dynamics - The increase in Import Prices suggests that U.S. trading partners are not absorbing tariff costs, as higher prices indicate a lack of downward trend [6] - The current trade situation reflects a challenge, with rising Import Prices and declining Export values [5][6] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Empire State Index for August reported a higher-than-expected figure of 11.9, marking the second-highest month since November of the previous year [7] - This is the second consecutive positive reading after four months of negative results, indicating a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector [7] Market Outlook - The S&P 500 is on track to maintain its winning streak, achieving record closing highs throughout the week [8] - Upcoming economic data releases and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium are anticipated to influence market sentiment, particularly regarding potential Fed rate cuts [8][9]