Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) has faced significant challenges in recent years, including a 39% decline in stock price, while the S&P 500 has increased by approximately 67% [2]. However, there are signs of potential recovery and profitability improvements that could make UPS stock more attractive moving forward. Financial Performance - For the year-end results of 2025, UPS reported consolidated fourth-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $24 billion [3]. The adjusted per-share profit was $2.38, surpassing the anticipated $2.20 earnings per share [3]. Strategic Changes - UPS is reducing the number of deliveries it handles for Amazon, which it describes as "extraordinarily dilutive." This controversial decision aims to strengthen profit margins, aligning with CEO Carol Tome's goal of improving profitability [4]. Stock Performance - As of the start of 2026, UPS shares have increased by 17% year-to-date and have rallied over 37% in the past six months, indicating a positive trend despite previous struggles [5]. The stock is now considered a more attractive investment compared to one or two years ago [5]. Valuation and Dividend - Despite the recent stock rally, UPS trades at a reasonable valuation of 15 times its estimated future earnings based on analyst expectations [6]. Additionally, the stock offers an attractive dividend yield of 6.2%, enhancing its appeal as a buy [6].

Core Insights - The Retail Momentum Index is a new data and analytics solution created through a collaboration between Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks, aimed at providing a leading indicator of retail trade activity in the U.S. [1][2] - The index integrates various data sources, including shipping data and business activity signals, to offer a comprehensive view of retail momentum, allowing businesses to detect trends before they appear in traditional reports [2][3] Retail Momentum Index Details - The Retail Momentum Index will utilize adjusted monthly returns from the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Retail Sales and Food Services series as its benchmark [3] - Early insights indicate that retail activity remained soft during the 2025 holiday season, but signs of stabilization are evident, with improved credit health for U.S. retail businesses following three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [4][5] Performance Indicators - Year-over-year momentum was negative in Q4 2025, but the average decline improved to 10.3%, a significant reduction from 21.0% in Q4 2024, indicating a slowdown in contraction [5] - Returns volumes fell significantly, with an average decline of 38.4% from 2023 to 2024 and 54.5% from 2024 to 2025, suggesting improved demand quality and more disciplined spending [5] Future Outlook - Retail activity is expected to remain broadly stable through at least the first half of 2026, unless major regulatory or policy changes occur [6] - The launch of the Retail Momentum Index marks the beginning of a broader collaboration between Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks to develop additional market insights [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - UPS and FedEx are major logistics companies facilitating global commerce, with McKinsey projecting 7%-9% annual growth for the e-commerce industry through 2040, indicating sustained demand for both companies [1]. Group 2: Performance Comparison - FedEx has outperformed UPS both year-to-date and over the past five years, with a year-over-year revenue growth of 6.8%, while UPS experienced a 3.3% decline in its latest quarters [2]. - UPS has a higher valuation with a PEG ratio of 1.85 compared to FedEx's 1.41, suggesting FedEx is slightly cheaper based on expected growth [5]. Group 3: Strategic Approaches - FedEx is focusing on growth by spinning off its freight segment to prioritize ground and air shipments, as stated by CEO Raj Subramaniam [3]. - UPS is currently shrinking its operations to enhance profit margins, as indicated by CEO Carol Tomé, who emphasized strengthening revenue quality [4]. Group 4: Employment and Operational Changes - UPS plans to lay off 30,000 workers this year due to reduced Amazon shipments, which is expected to lead to continued revenue dips in upcoming quarters [6]. - In contrast, FedEx has retained more of its workforce, with recent layoffs totaling 1,350 workers, which is significantly lower than UPS's planned layoffs [7].

Job Cuts Overview - U.S. employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, marking a 205% increase from December and a significant rise from 49,795 cuts in January of the previous year [1][2] - This January's layoffs represent the highest monthly total since October 2025, when 153,074 layoffs were recorded [2] Sector-Specific Job Cuts - The transportation sector led with 31,243 job cuts, primarily due to UPS announcing 30,000 cuts as it reduces its operations with Amazon [6] - Technology firms reported 22,291 job cuts, with Amazon alone accounting for 16,000 of these as it reorganizes its management structure [6][11] - Healthcare companies announced 17,107 job cuts, the highest for the sector since April 2020, driven by inflation, high labor costs, and lower reimbursements from Medicaid and Medicare [9] - Chemical manufacturers reported 4,701 cuts, largely influenced by shifts towards AI and automation at companies like Dow [10] Reasons for Layoffs - The primary reasons for layoffs included contract loss (30,784 cuts), adverse market and economic conditions (28,392 cuts), restructuring (20,044 cuts), and closings (12,738 cuts) [13] - AI was cited as a reason for 7,624 job cuts, although its direct impact remains uncertain [14] Hiring Trends - Employers announced only 5,306 hiring plans in January, the lowest for the month since tracking began in 2009, down from 6,089 in January of the previous year and 10,496 in December [14][15]

Economic Indicators - The delayed JOLTS report and jobless claims indicate a complex labor market situation, with layoffs concentrated in specific companies like Amazon and UPS, suggesting potential underlying issues in hiring and firing trends [3][4] - The ISM manufacturing index showed a significant improvement, moving from the high 40s to the low 50s, indicating a shift from contraction to expansion, although elevated prices paid remain a concern [7][8] Market Trends - There is a noticeable rotation in market momentum, with traditional cyclicals such as energy, industrials, and materials performing well, while tech stocks face sell-offs due to concerns over AI's impact on business models [16][19] - The divergence in earnings growth between large-cap tech companies and smaller-cap stocks suggests a broader market strength, with small-cap earnings showing stability and upward trajectory [19] AI and Technology Sector - The conversation around AI's impact on labor needs and productivity is evolving, with companies reassessing their workforce requirements in light of AI advancements [12][13] - The tech sector is experiencing a sell-off as investors react to aggressive spending plans from major players like Microsoft and Alphabet, leading to a cautious market sentiment [11][14]

Core Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, highlighting its growth potential and diversification opportunities [1] Investment Focus - The company has diversified its investments across various sectors including banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hotels, indicating a strategic approach to portfolio management [1] - The entry into the US market in 2020 reflects a growing interest in international investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like banks, hotels, and shipping [1] Market Trends - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 suggests a shift in investment preferences among local investors, moving towards more diversified financial products [1] - The trend of investing in blue-chip companies initially has evolved into a broader investment strategy that includes various market cap sizes, indicating a more sophisticated investment approach [1] Knowledge Sharing - The decision to write for Seeking Alpha demonstrates a commitment to sharing insights and gaining knowledge, which is crucial for navigating the complexities of both the US and ASEAN markets [1]

Group 1 - U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January 2026, marking a 118% increase from January 2025 and a 205% increase from December 2025, the highest January total since 2009 [2][5] - Companies reported only 5,306 new hires in January 2026, the lowest figure for January since 2009, indicating a significant decline in hiring intentions [2][5] - The transportation sector experienced the highest level of layoffs, primarily due to UPS's plan to cut over 30,000 jobs, while Amazon announced a reduction of 16,000 jobs, mainly at the corporate level [5] Group 2 - The data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas suggests a shift in the labor market towards increased layoffs, with many plans likely set at the end of 2025, reflecting a pessimistic outlook for 2026 [3][5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 were reported at 209,000, with a longer-term trend near its lowest level in two years, contrasting with the layoff announcements [4] - Over 100 companies have notified the Labor Department of significant layoffs under Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification regulations, indicating a broader trend of job cuts [6]

Group 1 - U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January 2026, marking a 118% increase from January 2025 and a 205% increase from December 2025, the highest January total since 2009 [2][5] - Companies reported only 5,306 new hires in January 2026, the lowest figure for that month since 2009, indicating a significant decline in hiring intentions [2][5] - The transportation sector experienced the highest level of layoffs, primarily due to UPS's plan to cut over 30,000 jobs, while Amazon announced a reduction of 16,000 jobs, mainly at the corporate level [5] Group 2 - The Challenger data suggests a shift in the labor market, with increased layoffs indicating that employers are less optimistic about the economic outlook for 2026 [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 were reported at 209,000, with a longer-term trend near its lowest level in two years, contrasting with the layoff announcements [4] - Over 100 companies have notified the Labor Department of significant layoffs under Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification regulations, highlighting the scale of job cuts [6]

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Labor Market Overview - The labor market is facing challenges as major companies announce significant layoffs, with Amazon planning to cut about 16,000 corporate roles and UPS announcing 30,000 job cuts [1][8] - Dow has reduced its workforce by approximately 4,500 jobs, representing about 12% of its total employees, while Home Depot and Nike have also made smaller cuts [1] AI and Employment Concerns - A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that 71% of Americans are concerned that artificial intelligence could permanently replace their jobs [2] - Despite the fears surrounding AI, researchers suggest that the majority of layoffs are driven by federal workforce cuts, economic conditions, and company closures rather than AI [3][5] Layoff Statistics - In 2025, there were 1.2 million layoffs, with AI being blamed for fewer than 55,000 of those, which is about 4.5% [7] - Economic conditions accounted for 253,000 layoffs, while company closures led to another 191,000 job losses [7] AI's Role in the Workplace - Research indicates that when AI is implemented in jobs, it is often used as a tool rather than a replacement for human workers [9] - The success rate of AI-assisted tasks declines significantly for complex work, highlighting the need for human oversight [9] AI-Washing Phenomenon - Analysts suggest that some companies may be "AI-washing" layoffs, using AI as a scapegoat to divert attention from deeper organizational issues [10][11] - The term "AI-washing" refers to the practice of rebranding layoffs as part of an AI strategy to present a more favorable narrative [10] Long-Term Impact of AI - The Yale Budget Lab posits that the transformative effects of AI on the labor market may take years, similar to the historical impacts of computers and the internet [12]