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Group 1 - The company expects a net loss of 800 million to 1 billion yuan for the current reporting period, compared to a loss of approximately 341.37 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 900 million and 1.2 billion yuan, compared to a loss of about 368.64 million yuan in the previous year [1] - The basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.1125 to 0.1406 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 0.3940 yuan per share in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The main reason for the performance change is attributed to the increase in cement sales prices and the decrease in costs of cement and ready-mixed concrete, leading to improved operational efficiency compared to the previous year [1] - The company has focused on precise management, cost reduction, and optimizing both pricing and costs, resulting in a significant reduction in net loss attributable to shareholders compared to the previous year [1] - National statistics indicate that from January to May 2025, the cumulative cement production in the country was 659 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, with the decline rate widening by 1.2 percentage points compared to January to April, and a 5.8 percentage point decrease compared to the same period last year [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a preference for A-shares over offshore markets due to their lagging performance year-to-date and more reasonable valuations compared to offshore markets [12]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment for A-shares has improved, with the weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) rising to 78% and the simple MSASI to 65% [2][6]. - The Chinese government has intensified its anti-involution message to address overcapacity issues in sectors like solar, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce [4]. - Despite the positive sentiment, near-term volatility is expected to rise, and the report cautions against a beta-focused strategy in the offshore market [12]. Summary by Sections Investor Sentiment - A-share investor sentiment improved with the weighted MSASI increasing by 7 percentage points to 78% and the simple MSASI rising by 8 percentage points to 65% compared to the previous cutoff date [2]. - Average daily turnover for ChiNext and A-shares decreased by 11% and 7% respectively, while equity futures and Northbound turnover increased by 7% and 9% [2]. Market Inflows - Southbound markets experienced net inflows of US$2.7 billion from July 2 to July 9, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching US$95.8 billion and US$0.5 billion respectively [3]. Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a deflation of -0.4% month-over-month in June, driven by weak construction activities and tariff impacts, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.1% year-over-year from -0.1% in May [5]. Policy Implications - The report emphasizes the need for a tailored approach to the anti-involution initiative, as different sectors have varying competitive landscapes, ESG considerations, and market sizes [4]. - The implementation of policies to rebalance and reflation the economy remains challenging due to institutional inertia [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the steel and cement sectors in China, suggesting potential benefits from a more supportive policy environment on supply discipline [1][12][13]. Core Insights - There is a renewed policy focus on addressing supply discipline in China, with a call for a unified national market and a crackdown on excessive competition leading to lower prices [1]. - The report highlights that excess capacity in various industries ranges from 30% to 50%, with specific figures for steel and cement being around 30% to 50% [2][11]. - The potential for executing production cuts in the steel sector is noted, with a target of 50 million tons, which could lead to a significant reduction in crude steel output in the second half of 2025 [13][18]. - The cement sector is also undergoing capacity categorization and is targeting a reduction of unauthorized and energy-intensive capacities, which could improve capacity utilization from 50% to 70% [13][14]. Summary by Sections Supply Side Expectations - The report discusses ongoing policy efforts to discourage overly fierce competition and control output in sectors like hog farming and steel, aiming to reverse price deflation trends [12]. - The clarity of future policy guidance remains uncertain, but discussions suggest a more supportive context for executing supply plans in the steel and cement sectors [13]. Excess Capacity Analysis - Excess capacity is a persistent challenge, with estimates indicating that unauthorized excess clinker capacity in the cement industry exceeds 400 million tons, representing nearly 18% of the industry [14][15]. - The report estimates that additional requirements could lead to a targeted exit of 277 to 377 million tons of clinker capacity, further reducing excess capacity [13]. Market Impact - The report anticipates that the execution of steel production cuts could create a meaningful deficit in the market, similar to conditions observed in the second half of 2021, which previously led to margin expansion and reduced exports [18][19]. - The implied spread from rebar futures suggests a potential margin expansion of nearly RMB 200 per ton in the steel sector, indicating a strong possibility of production cuts [16].

ab 3 July 2025 Global Research First Read We think investors may have overly priced in potential price upside from anti-involution initiates, while overlooking the structural demand weakness and obstacles to industry consolidation. We maintain our cautious view on the China cement sector. Equities China Building Materials China Cement Sector Expert call takeaway: "lie flat" no good for long- term consolidation No new policy We hosted a call with Digital Cement analyst, Ms. Xiaoliang Wang, to dive into the t ...

Group 1 - The company is focused on achieving its mid-year targets by enhancing production quality, accelerating project construction, and improving transformation efficiency [1] - Sichuan Dazhou Conch Cement has developed specialized cements and is experiencing stable profit growth by seizing market opportunities [2] - Jiangxi Xinyu Fenyi Conch Cement has seen significant increases in clinker production, cement and aggregate sales, and profits due to its integrated operational advantages [2] Group 2 - Jiangsu Taicang Conch Cement has optimized its palletized bagged cement robot dispatch line, resulting in a 53% year-on-year increase in dispatch volume from January to May [2] - Conch Cement in Indonesia has implemented energy-saving measures, achieving cost savings of over 10 million yuan and significantly reducing comprehensive costs [2] - Hainan Changjiang Conch Plastic Company is transitioning to green packaging in response to new national standards, exporting 27 million packaging bags worth 35 million yuan from January to May [5] Group 3 - Guangdong Yingde Conch Cement is advancing its 2 million ton aggregate project despite rainy season challenges, with construction moving to equipment debugging [7] - The Zhaoqing project in Guangdong is nearing completion and will contribute positively to local economic development [7]

Core Viewpoint - FLSmidth has entered into a share purchase agreement to sell its subsidiary owning land and buildings in Valby, Denmark, marking a significant transition as the company prepares to relocate its headquarters [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The expected net cash proceeds from the sale are approximately DKK 730 million, to be received in full upon closing of the transaction, anticipated at the end of Q1 2026 [2]. - The expected accounting gain from the transaction is around DKK 690 million [2]. - The transaction is subject to approval by the Danish Consumer and Competition Authority [2]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The net cash proceeds will be allocated according to the company's general capital allocation priorities and for general corporate purposes [3]. - The transaction does not alter FLSmidth's previously communicated financial guidance for the full year 2025 [3]. Group 3: Company Background - FLSmidth has been based in Valby, Copenhagen since 1899, with its current headquarters established in 1956 [1]. - The company plans to relocate to a new corporate headquarters at Havneholmen in Copenhagen, scheduled for late 2025 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on cement, copper, and incrementally positive on steel and aluminium, while holding a negative view on coal and lithium [1][9]. Core Insights - Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed, reflecting mark-to-market price changes for 1H25, with target price changes ranging from -13% to +12% [1][9]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for hog pricing/margin in 2H25E due to improved supply discipline [1][9]. Summary by Sector Steel - Earnings forecasts for Baosteel and Angang have been revised up by 1-4% for 2025E, while the loss-making forecast for Maanshan has been cut by 11% [10]. - Maintain Buy on Baosteel with a new target price of Rmb8.8/sh [10]. Coal - The thermal coal market is expected to remain balanced in 2025E, with a decline in demand driven by renewable energy expansion [11]. - Earnings forecasts for Shenhua, Chinacoal, and Yankuang have been cut by 2-11% for 2025E and 10-27% for 2026-27E [12]. Cement - Unit gross profit forecasts for cement have been revised down by Rmb2-6/t for 2025E, but a positive view is maintained for 2H25E due to supply discipline [13]. - Earnings estimates for CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, and CRBMT have been cut by 6% to 18% for 2025E [14]. Aluminum - Earnings estimates for Hongqiao have been revised up by 5-27% for 2025-27E, reflecting higher industry spread forecasts [17]. - Maintain Neutral on Hongqiao with a target price of HK$12.5/sh [17]. Copper - The benchmark copper price forecast has been revised to an average of US$4.20/lb in 2025E and US$4.61/lb in 2026E [18]. - Earnings estimates for CMOC-H/A, JXC-H/A, and MMG have been cut by 1-18% for 2025-26E [18]. Lithium - Earnings estimates for Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Yongxing have been cut by 3-4% for 2025E due to lower lithium prices [20]. - Yongxing's 2027E earnings have been cut by 37% based on flat lithium price forecasts [20]. Paper - Earnings forecasts for ND Paper have been revised up by 3-4%, while Sunpaper's earnings have been cut by 3% [22].

Core Insights - AnorTech Inc. has successfully completed a phase of its R&D program focused on sustainable cement products using anorthosite from the Gronne Bjerg Project in Greenland [1][2] - The company aims to commercialize three high-potential product lines, significantly reducing CO2 emissions compared to traditional cement production [2][5] R&D Program Highlights - The R&D program was conducted by the Danish Technological Institute, utilizing 100% anorthosite mixed with phosphoric acid to create materials for various applications [2] - AnorTech's process eliminates approximately 90% of CO2 emissions compared to Ordinary Portland Cement, which emits about 0.9 tonnes of CO2 per tonne produced [2] Market Potential - The global refractory cement market was valued at USD 22.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.7%, reaching an estimated USD 37.7 billion by 2034 [4] - AnorTech is particularly focused on the high-value refractory cement market and is working towards product certification [5] Product Development - Successful tests showed that anorthosite mortar prisms maintained structural integrity after multiple heating cycles at 1,200 °C, with post-treatment strength exceeding 25.0 MPa [8] - Over 20 formulations were tested for optimal printability and structural buildability, confirming proof of concept for 3D printing applications [8] Strategic Partnerships and Financial Position - AnorTech is pursuing partnerships with leading industrial groups to accelerate the commercialization of its technologies [10] - The company has over $2.3 million in working capital, indicating a strong financial position to support ongoing projects [10]

据土耳其反垄断机构的一份声明表示，在对艾登省预拌混凝土和水泥生产领域的一些公司进行的调查 中，Cimentas Izmir、Batibeton、Ozturk Ticaret 和 Solen Cimento四家企业因违法共被罚款约7600万里 拉。 ...